Has the era of the era ended?

[Damon_3388]

I believe it’s largely due to how much the club and players want to build a legacy.

From what I saw with mainly the bulldogs but also Richmond and Collingwood 2010 to a lesser extent is that they win the flag and it’s a job done kind of attitude.

They party heavily, take extended breaks, filter in back to training later whilst the 17 other clubs are working their arses off to be better than them.

Hawthorn wanted to create something special. They enjoyed the moment for a short time and then it was back to work


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Bit of a hindsight call based on outcomes, rather than known facts.

 

[gavaniacono]

True re Eags, they may be about to start a Hawthorn like reign of dominance.

But there's every chance another team - say Port - wins the GF kind of out of nowhere.

That would not be a disappointment, though unlikely imo. Id love brissy to take a BIG step of all the oppo. Even Freo.

 

[Plugger35]

5th on percentage ATM, and probably looking the best they have since 2016.

They just lost to Gold Coast at home, I don't think they will be featuring in premiership calculations this year, I'll be surprised if they even play finals.

 

[Kwality]

I'd be stunned if we didn't see another dominant team or two over the next decade that win at least 2 flags in a short period (say 3 years).
Richmond may have been able to do it last year if they had got through the prelim but they faltered.

Equalisation won't prevent a dominant team for a 3-4 year period emerging because salary cap won't stop you putting together a talented young list that is a bit undervalued (salary cap wise) but performs at a higher level onfield.

I have no idea if West Coast will be one of these teams.

Correct, remember this time one year ago the Eagles were not highly rated, this year ,,,,

 

[Coach_Required]

I think West Coast have this year in the bag, their flag to lose now.

 

[VineyToClark]

The AFL has long sought equalisation in the sense that any team can plausibly beat any other team on the day.

An English Premier League set up where only four or five teams can realistically win the comp, and money differences mean some teams are hugely stronger than others, is its worst nightmare.

We're seeing this come to pass in the home and away more and more every year, and the last three premiers all being different indicates that is playing through to September as well.

Crucially though, the Bulldogs dropped off after their 2016 flag, Richmond didn't go back to back and don't appear to a realistic premiership threat this year and the Eagles don't seem unbeatable this year.

Was the Hawthorn threepeat the last of the great eras?

Have all the changes the AFL brought in, especially free agency, meant that the days of one team being noticeably stronger than the others, or one team having an extended run of genuine premiership contention (North's seven prelims in a row in the 90s/00) gone for good?

And is that a good thing?

Geelong have been dominating since 2007 with a win percentage of 75% over that time.

This is despite all the equalisation measures brought in to stop them but Geelong just keep getting it done.

People like you keep harping on about how even our league is and how it's nothing like the EPL - the reality is that Geelong are the AFL equivalent of Manchester United.

 

[The Warlord]

What's your expectation? That all flags come in 2s Or 3s? It isnt that common, even during your so called era of the era.

The top teams change over time, the competition is fine.

Another superteam will emerge. The dogs and tigers had nothing on the Hawks and Lions. One day we will get a superteam (could even be WCE, they are bloody good).

Go see a doctor for potential damage to your brain - and stock up on jimmies, the gene pool doesn't need further damage done to it.

Someone has been having morning kavas.

 

[The Warlord]

Geelong have been dominating since 2007 with a win percentage of 75% over that time.

This is despite all the equalisation measures brought in to stop them but Geelong just keep getting it done.

People like you keep harping on about how even our league is and how it's nothing like the EPL - the reality is that Geelong are the AFL equivalent of Manchester United.

Geelong haven't troubled the finals in years.

 

[The King!]

as long as we stay in the Essendon dont win finals era, then thats all fine

 

[BigVic]

Since the Hawks threepeat, repeating for a flag has been difficult. Dogs missed the Finals and Richmond lost a Prelim after winning flags in 2016 and 2017.

Eagles went to the 2nd week of the Finals the year before winning the flag. The other two didn’t played Finals the previous year.

 

[kozi]

Eagles are in for a sustained period of success. Their style of play is hard to counter/copy. Quality talls don’t grow on trees.

 

[iluvparis]

Geelong haven't troubled the finals in years.

That's why he said they were like Man Utd

 

[Turboman1994]

You have to get a lot right to win a flag and list management is about peaking at the right time. Most flag windows are slim at best.

 

[Turboman1994]

They were 11-0 when Kennedy & Darling played together or something similarly ridiculous. I imagine like most years the injury list plays an important part in determining who challenges. We're already seen Richmond's horror injury list having a massive impact.

15-0 and likely to be 16-0 after weekend

 

[Dazzler9]

Eagles are in for a sustained period of success. Their style of play is hard to counter/copy. Quality talls don’t grow on trees.

I'd argue we've been enjoying that period for 4 years now. 2 GFs and 4 straight years of finals, with most wins in the league over those 4 years.

Whether that translates into more than one flag?....guesswork.

 

[master bate]

The footy department salary cap combined with teams losing opportunities to get a huge advantage should even the comp and stop teams having a massive talent advantage. If you look at the teams that dominated the comp between 2005-2015 they were a long way ahead of a lot of sides in certain areas.

Geelong had the father son system, plus were well ahead of the comp with recruiting and their coaching department - mostly the assistants.

Hawthorn worked the priority pick system, hired a great coach, made some really smart decisions in fitness and then were miles ahead of the comp (and might still be a fair way ahead) in terms of recruiting senior players to fill the gaps of their core talent.

Sydney had the cola, landed the biggest free agent ever and had a big lead on a lot of teams in terms of culture.

Collingwood took a big leap ahead of everyone with facilities and also had a great recruiting team.

So the teams at the top had a solid margin on a lot of other sides and there were so many bad sides during that time as well. Richmond were hopeless for a long time. Melbourne and Carlton both had a couple of goes at ineptitude. Dogs and Saints fell right off quickly. Brisbane no good. Essendon.... Eagles took a while to rebuild. Add in the Suns and Giants just starting up. All of that meant the number of contenders for the flag as well as the number of tough games in any week were pretty low.

In their dynasty I'd like to know what percentage of games the Hawks could get by with resting players, moving guys through different positions, shuffling youngsters in and out to give them a taste etc etc.

Especially as the season goes on there will be plenty of bad teams and easy wins this year but I think the number of contenders and tougher games is much higher. 12 teams won 12 games last year, that's an indication there's plenty of depth and less easy outs. With greater equality across the comp it makes sense the gap between the contending teams and the solid sides starts to shrink.

 

[Macpotata]

No. But the era of the era of the era has ended.

 

[Roddy]

There’s no question in my mind that the AFL are absolutely DESPERATE to stop us from rising and being dominant again, as we make a mockery of the equalisation measures. We were the club they brought the measures in to stop in the first place, back in the 80s. They cannot have lightning striking a third time, its embarrassing for them.

 

[Dipper]

No and No.

It certainly is harder now for four or five clubs to dominate the flags for two or three decades like happened between 1967 and 1989. In that time period before salary caps and drafts could start to take effect we saw Carlton win seven flags, Hawks win seven flags, Richmond win four flags, Essendon win two flags and North win two flags. But I still feel a club or two can win a lot more than others over a decade if they get their list just right in one generation of players. But four or five clubs dominating like happened before salary caps come in was gone forever from three decades back. From 1990's onwards every club gets a lick of the ice cream at some stage and the equalisation policies designed to make it that way. But no reason individual clubs can screw it up badly for two or three decades or get it right beautifully for two or three decades. Geelong for example barely been down for any length of time and in draft and salary cap era been in four grand finals from 1989 to 1995 and then from 2007 to 2011 another four grand finals. Maybe in 2019 they make another. They never really been down at all and adapted really well to when the system was changing in mid to late 80's. Swans were crap in early 90's but once the priority pick era came about they jumped on board and road it beautifully to rise up and make a grand final in 1996 on back of it and never really been down in over two decades. But at same time many other clubs have won one or two flags and got the lick of ice cream at some stage. A couple like mine and Demons have really sucked at adapting to the salary cap and draft era. Think one or two clubs getting it spot on and one or two screwing it up badly will still happen a lot. But a dozen other clubs will be up and about at some stage and down at others.

But at same time many other clubs have won one or two flags and got the lick of ice cream at some stage.

Here's a thing not many clubs have actually won 1 flag in that timeframe.

From 1967 to 2015 (& I use those figures to coincide at the start with the Richmond era as you did and end with the Hawthorn 3 peat) of all the clubs to win a flag only one has only won one.

Port Adelaide.

Everyone else had multiples, for the most part won with the same basic list.

Be interesting to see how that pans out for our most 3 recent premiers.

On SM-J330G using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Tarkyn_24]

There’s no question in my mind that the AFL are absolutely DESPERATE to stop us from rising and being dominant again, as we make a mockery of the equalisation measures. We were the club they brought the measures in to stop in the first place, back in the 80s. They cannot have lightning striking a third time, its embarrassing for them.

Nice hat.

 

[Ron The Bear]

The overall evenness of this year's competition is due in part to a general compression of team ages. Even the "rebuilding" Gold Coast, at 24.03, is barely younger than Collingwood's 2010 premiership team (24.16).

Year	AFL Average R1-3	Youngest	Age	Oldest	Age	Range
2019	25.32	Gold Coast	24.03	Adelaide	26.49	2.46
2018	25.10	Western Bulldogs	23.57	Hawthorn	26.50	2.93
2017	25.27	Melbourne	23.76	West Coast	27.12	3.36
2016	25.21	Brisbane	23.89	North Melbourne	27.85	3.96
2015	25.18	Gold Coast	23.34	Fremantle	26.88	3.54
2014	25.01	GWS	22.78	Sydney	26.43	3.65
2013	24.91	GWS	21.75	Sydney	27.07	5.32
2012	24.48	GWS	21.56	St.Kilda	26.22	4.66
2011	24.43	Gold Coast	22.59	Geelong	26.43	3.84
2010	24.75	Richmond	23.31	Western Bulldogs	26.27	2.96

 

[Roddy]

Nice hat.

Good comment

 

[Starburns_]

Over the last 4 years, 12 different teams have played in a prelim, which would suggest that the OP is close to the mark, but the league is more competitive also.

The rebuild cycle has accelerated drastically. Premiership windows can open a lot quicker, and it doesn't feel as though finishing 5th puts you any closer to the flag than finishing 12th.

Overall, free agency has coincided with more aggressive list management practices and less player loyalty, so the longer build of a core playing group that is essential for a dynasty isn't really happening. So whilst the jump can happen much quicker, the fall can too (see the Doggies) if things turn pear-shaped.

It doesn't necessarily mean that eras are over, but it's becoming harder to sustain success, and clubs aren't really prioritising long-term thinking.

History shows only one team has ever done that though. Because it is so recent there will be that feeling of “if they can, why can’t we?”

If nobody replicates that soon then that feeling will fade.

1/19 (flags from 5-8) so far, the Dogs are still a massive outlier.

Here's a thing not many clubs have actually won 1 flag in that timeframe.

From 1967 to 2015 (& I use those figures to coincide at the start with the Richmond era as you did and end with the Hawthorn 3 peat) of all the clubs to win a flag only one has only won one.

Port Adelaide.

Everyone else had multiples, for the most part won with the same basic list.

Be interesting to see how that pans out for our most 3 recent premiers.

On SM-J330G using BigFooty.com mobile app

That stat is fairly irrelevant, Collingwood in 2010 was 20 years since the previous flag, West Coast in 2006 was 12 years, 7 years for Essendon 2000 and Sydney 2012. So it's not as though fairly isolated flags weren't happening already.

 

[its free real estate]

Reckon West Coast are a decent chance to B2B, only thing stopping them is the toll of two long seasons in a row, with all that travel. Guys like Petrucelle add an extra dimension.

It’s a long season though. Maybe the Lions get up, maybe GWS finally break through.

 

[megatiger]

life times ahead and it's alllll over folks

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