maka
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- Jan 15, 2011
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who doesn't, Carlton maybe?
List Mgmt. Ross Lyon - Sacked
- Thread starter jedi mind tricks
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who doesn't, Carlton maybe?
Your post man
...you provide the evidence of which teams pencil in a victory against us......
lol who cares about age and numbers of games played ....the fact is ross cant cut the mustard.....8 derby losses shows me that he cant change the guy is stubborn and arrogant for a coach who has won ZILCH
Posting here rather than the Hogan thread because the point is more relevant to coaching -
Every year of his career so far, Hogan has been able to maintain a 2 goal/game average (1.9 in 2016). This is throughout periods of injuries, drops in form and personal issues. This is also under 2 different coaches (Roos, Goodwin) with differing game styles. There have been games where Jesse has struggled but he always bounces back because class is permanent. 4 consecutive years of averaging 2 goals a game or more is pretty clear evidence of class and consistency.
Jesse himself looks as fit and hungry as ever. He looks capable of scoring 45+ goals this year and beyond. IF he does struggle to impact the scoreboard, based on either lack of/poor forward 50 entries or being played too far up the ground, than we need serious reflection on our coaching methods. The proof is in the pudding.
This is not something to judge right now after 3 games, but after a full season. I'm just putting this out there now.
IMO, it would be a serious indictment on Lyon and forward coach David Hale if he drops below 2 gpg this year.
Every year of his career so far, Hogan has been able to maintain a 2 goal/game average (1.9 in 2016). This is throughout periods of injuries, drops in form and personal issues. This is also under 2 different coaches (Roos, Goodwin) with differing game styles. There have been games where Jesse has struggled but he always bounces back because class is permanent. 4 consecutive years of averaging 2 goals a game or more is pretty clear evidence of class and consistency.
Jesse himself looks as fit and hungry as ever. He looks capable of scoring 45+ goals this year and beyond. IF he does struggle to impact the scoreboard, based on either lack of/poor forward 50 entries or being played too far up the ground, than we need serious reflection on our coaching methods. The proof is in the pudding.
This is not something to judge right now after 3 games, but after a full season. I'm just putting this out there now.
IMO, it would be a serious indictment on Lyon and forward coach David Hale if he drops below 2 gpg this year.
- Jul 2, 2013
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You are right ... it isn't something to judge right now.
How much different would that likely look if Hogan had have played in our high scoring Round 1 win?
And people accuse me of choosing selective data when I use the last 20 years as my sample.
This is a snapshot of his entire career and I'm saying wait until this season pans out. That's not selective at all.
If we have more games like Round 1 throughout the season, Hogan will kick a lot of goals and we'll all be happy.
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You'rea good poster don't waist your time over it
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Try reading the post I was replying to. It was about the number of 50+ gamers on our list. I don't think anyone is denying the Eagles are more experienced than us, as those stats prove.
Think 'the experts' will still probably be around the mark. Weird fixture this year. We're sitting 6th with wins over North and St.Kilda at home. GC have beaten us, WB and Carlton. Saints have beaten Essendon (while they were terrible), GC by a point and Hawthorn (who were missing a couple by the end). Brisbane are doing well but everyone kinda expected them to.
I enjoy your analysis, and generally agree with what you are saying. I think Brisbane is an okay club for us to benchmark against. Different paths and list profiles for sure. A key factor for our club is that there is some wholesale renovations happening in particular areas of the ground, which this year includes the forward line. If anyone expects a recovering Hogan to come in and immediately dominate the goal scoring then they are showing a lack of football perspective. But I have no doubt that he will be a weapon for us and structural game changer. Similarly I have no doubt Lobb will be a key component of how we structure our attack, but don't expect it to happen until we actually can predict who his forward line team mates will be, and even whether he will be lining up as a forward or a ruck.
We can quibble over Cox versus Taberner, and soon we may be adding Dixon to the debate. We can posture about if McCarthy is one too many talls, or if he is a medium. We can dream that Bennell may come good or we can look forward to Sturt getting a debut and the exciting NGA prospects. Happy days.
Is the chemistry between a marking tall forward and the small forwards important? You bet it is. But right now we don't know which of Scultz, Colyer, Ballantyne or Switkowski may be in the team, and we have no idea how much time forward Lobb will spend.
I remain very confident that the critical building blocks of an effective attack are in place, minus a solution to the small forward role.
Who do you think is our best comparison in the league then? I'd worry greatly if you're suggesting we should be comparing ourselves to the 4th year of Brisbane/St.Kilda/Melbourne's rebuild because that's suggesting we're in for a 10 yr rebuild. I reckon the age range for the team on the weekend is on the younger side but definitely nearing contention. Our average games played looks a bit young but that's only because we're missing the 150+ game guys. The average age of the team would probably be pretty comparable to others like Brisbane/St.Kilda I'd have thought.
Obviously it's a little early to take anything meaningful from the comparison but come seasons end if Brisbane make finals and we're sitting in the bottom 6 you'd have to b a little disappointed.
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Norm Smith Medallist
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Not that you asked me but I think if we have 2 of Fyfe, Hill, Blakely, Sandi/Darcy, Ballas, Bennell then Brisbane are a fine comparison. Comparing the teams when we are missing the top end talent through injury and they are missing Marcus Adams (who is arguably the only best 22 missing) makes for a false comparison. Over the course of the season, I expect Brisbane to be ahead of us because I don't expect to get enough of that list on the park often enough.
Fair enough. I personally have basically written off Hill, Sandi, Ballas and Bennel (and Darcy was dropped because he doesn't have the fitness, he could have been in the team). We've had Fyfe for the first three so Blakely is the only real miss (although he's a big one imo). You can't keep injury prone players on your list (with little hope of them ever playing) and then use them as excuses for losses.
Assuming we get Fyfe and Blakely back soon and Brisbane revert to the mean injury wise I reckon it's still a very fair comparison. I don't think we necessarily need to equal them on the W-L column, just have to put up performances on a similar level.
Well Bennell, Sandi and Ballas will be gone by years end, but I generally agree with you.
With Neale gone Blakely out is a huge hole though.
I'd prefer Ross was fast tracking Cerra in this time TBH, or bringing Nyhuis in and pushing Conca midfield
I do worry we're putting a little too much pressure on Blakely considering he's never actually been that full-time A-grade mid. We basically need him to be a Neale level player, I'm not sure he's there yet tbh.
Both Cerra and Conca are big for me yeah.
Blakely in does give us another option at half back as well though - and he is proven ball winner there. So gives us a lot more versatility. Conca and Cerra were both stuck at HB on the weekend because Hamling got injured. Hamling comes back in, Blakely comes in, and then we have the ability to rotate Blakely, Conca and Cerra all as mid/defs. Given Nyhuis was the emergency last week I think they considered bringing him in to release both Conca and Cerra to the midfield. If Hamling is an out I think Nyhuis or Cox comes in to push Conca/Cerra to mid.
- Jul 2, 2013
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I am really liking what my 50+ club games stats tell me.
Teams that find themselves in long term rebuilds will typically, rarely get above 10 50+ club game players each week.
But you can also see when clubs appear to be healthier, turning and seeing benefits of their rebuilds. Their teams become more stable and they show a gradual increase in their 50+ club game numbers.
Right now, Freo's starting 22 has 5. That is extremely low and reflects our recent high list turnover in the last 3 years, compounded by our current injuries to our experienced players ... and although we may further add to that high turnover with future retirements to the likes of Sandilands, Ballas, Mundy, SHill ... we are very much at the bottom of our 50+ club game players stat and that will continue to increase in 2019 & 2020. But injuries, losses and lack of form/development shown by our newer players will inhibit the increase in that stat and hence prolong the rebuild. On the flip side, with limited injuries, wins and a stable starting 22, Freo's rebuild could easily be classed as completed during the 2020 season (even 2019 if the football gods shine on us).
Check out the differences with the two Freo teams below, the first being as we were in Round 4, with games played for Freo in brackets, the second being a possible (but highly unlikely) Freo Round 22 team;
Round 4, 5 players with 50+ club games;
B: Hamling(44), Pearce(46), Ryan(35)
HB: Conca(4), Wilson(25), Hughes(33)
C: Langdon(50), Cerra(25), B.Hill(36)
HF: Walters(133), Switkowski(3), Schultz(3)
F: Hogan(3), Taberner(69), Matera(20)
Fol: Lobb(4), Tucker(52), Mundy(298)
I/C: Brayshaw(21), McCarthy(40), Colyer(4), Duman(12)
Round 22, 16 players with 50+ club games;
B: Hamling(51), Pearce(63), Ryan(52)
HB: Tucker(69), Wilson(42), Hughes(50)
C: Langdon(67), Fyfe(173), B.Hill(53)
HF: Walters(150), Lobb(21), Mundy(315)
F: Hogan(20), Taberner(86), Ballantynes(175)
Fol: Sandilands(280), S.Hill(217), Blakely(60)
I/C: Cerra(42), Brayshaw(38), McCarthy(57), Colyer(21)
(With these players trying to get a game; Darcy, Cox, Conca, Logue, Bennell)
You ignored my question though. Who do you think we can be compared to?
I think you've got to be a little careful basing your view on a statistic you personally just made up. Do you have any statistical basis for 50+ games at one club being any sort of useful metric? Any analysis that puts guys like McCarthy, Matera, Lobb, Hamling, Hogan, Colyer, Wilson, B.Hill and Conca in the inexperienced basket is ridiculous. Naturally of course better teams will have more players that have played 50 games at that club. That doesn't necessarily mean the number of games played at a club means anything. I'd argue that games played in total means far, far more and shades that statistic completely. Correlation doesn't imply causality remember.
Would you excuse poor performances from a guy like Bryce Gibbs because he's played less than 50 games at Adelaide?
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- Apr 25, 2011
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Do you still live in 2018? Teams improve, teams get worse over the years. All of Freo, Brisbane, St Kilda and Gold coast have played the opening 4 rounds better than they have in the last couple of years - or did Planet Eagle forget to mention that to you? Between them they've beaten these other teams. Carlton (no surprise), Bulldogs, Eagles, North Melbourne, Port, Essendon, Hawthorn. All of Hawthorn, Port, Essendon and Bulldogs would be in the 8 if they didn't lose these particular games to "the competitions trash teams". I fully recognise that it won't sustain, Brisbane probably the only team with enough tank to last through to the finals, the other teams playing a few too many kids still developing their tank.
We aren't the joke of the competition since our 2012-2015 (if you need clues, the dude that this thread is about played a significant hand in that), the honor of joke of the competition is reserved for Carlton and closely followed by Saint Kilda and has been for years. We have had plenty of players actively seek a trade to Fremantle in the last few years where getting them here before was near on impossible, the players in the competition are a better indicator than a fair-weather supporter. If you seriously think we are the joke of the competition, you believe in planet eagle, are trolling, clueless or you only get your kicks from carping and vitriol, maybe a combination.
That's because we got a lot of new experienced players in the last two years. What happens ifHogan, Wilson BHill, Conca, Lobb, Colyer, Hamling, McCarthy and Matera are added to the number?
Gee whiz, now it's 14. All those guys are legit AFL players who are paid to perform. That group includes our best shut down defender and our current leading goal kicker and a B&F winner for starters.
I don't think you can use the '50 games for the club' figure. If you have played 50 games then you are an established AFL player.
- Jul 5, 2011
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This thread is insane, both sides are cherry picking stats to suit their argument and no one is going to change their mind.
Surely the only stat that matters is grand final wins, if he gets us one by the end of next year then he has been successful, if he hasn't then he has failed and should pack his bags.
Surely the only stat that matters is grand final wins, if he gets us one by the end of next year then he has been successful, if he hasn't then he has failed and should pack his bags.
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Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 30, 2009
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Except you have proven the youth excuses are right. Freo are pretty much the same as Richmond. The team that got beaten by GWS by 50 points in round 3. So if we get within 50 points of GWS, then we're on the right track?
Except I doubt 1 Richmond supporter even thought to use it as an excuse and they rolled out everything from injuries to AFL conspiracies
Probably because it’s a piss poor 1
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