2019 Analysis

[Cobbler]

Not sure if there's already a thread, but along with the 2019 Expectations thread I thought it would be interesting for people to highlight some interesting analysis etc.

Some stuff I've found interesting.

We're 2nd best defense.
We're 7th best offense.

I recall some facts around premiers being top 4 in both category more often than not, so we're not far off. Another 21 points and we'd have been top 4 for both categories.

Something else interesting is we've won 15 quarters. Geelong has won 18, so we're 2nd on that little stat.

Along with Brisbane we're the only team to have 4 goal scorers kick 10 or more goals. Brisbane have 4 with exactly 10 each. We have:
Walters - 13
Matera - 12
Taberner - 11
McCarthy - 11

Although it doesn't seem important, to have a spread is significant. We have depth in the area of the field that has plagued us forever!

Just some interesting stuff to keep following.

 

[Joao]

Spread of goalkickers is definitely important. Makes you less predictable and harder to defend. What bothers me a little is that the only mid that is kicking goals is Walters. Be nice if some of the others chipped in more often.

 

[Cobbler]

Spread of goalkickers is definitely important. Makes you less predictable and harder to defend. What bothers me a little is that the only mid that is kicking goals is Walters. Be nice if some of the others chipped in more often.

I actually thought that too, but goals should come from your front 6. Hogan is yet to fire. Midfielders kicking goals is what you want when you have only 1-2 dominant forwards. I'd hope our spread sets us up well.

If we can average 10 from Walters, Matera, Taberner, McCarthy and Hogan and find another 3-4 goals per game average through the likes of Colyer, Switkowski, Mundy, Fyfe, Lobb we'll be in most contests.

 

[Joao]

I actually thought that too, but goals should come from your front 6. Hogan is yet to fire. Midfielders kicking goals is what you want when you have only 1-2 dominant forwards. I'd hope our spread sets us up well.

If we can average 10 from Walters, Matera, Taberner, McCarthy and Hogan and find another 3-4 goals per game average through the likes of Colyer, Switkowski, Mundy, Fyfe, Lobb we'll be in most contests.

Our forwards are doing splendid. To take the next step on offense we need goals from midfield. Fyfe is definitely capable, but not sure on the rest of them.

I actually think it should be our drafting priority this year and is also why Cogs or Kelly would make a big difference,

 

[theGav56]

It is interesting, but I think our forward line has so far been underwhelming, or perhaps unconvincing may be a better word. It has lacked consistency and cohesion, and looks exactly like what it is. A work in progress. Hogan is only showing glimpses, Taberner and McCarthy hot and cold, Matera terrific, but I am still nervous. Our delivery in there also a bit haphazard.

The key thing that your stats show is that there is enough to suggest that once the diamond gets polished it could really shine up a treat. I would say that the ceiling for them as a group is very high and I dream of them becoming as tight as the defence has become.

 

[theGav56]

Spread of goalkickers is definitely important. Makes you less predictable and harder to defend. What bothers me a little is that the only mid that is kicking goals is Walters. Be nice if some of the others chipped in more often.

Most likely with having more forward specialists the likes of Fyfe and Mundy spend less time forward.

 

[wayToGo_]

As of end of Round 6

#1 for Centre Clearance Differential
#1 for Contested Marks Differential
#2 for Marks inside 50 Differential
#2 for both Goal and Goal Assist Differentials
#4 for Metres Gained Differential (and #1 for MG total)
#5 for Contested Possession Differential

#18 for Bounces Differential (we clearly don't like to bounce the ball)
#18 for 1%er Differential (think this is more about the opposition having to spoil our new tall forwards a lot)

Melbourne has over taken us this round for total turn overs! On the way up! We're only #10 for Turn Over Differential (because of our pressure and intercepts the other way). Just as a comparison, West Coast are dead last for Turn Over Differential. Explains how they've only won one of their last 11 quarters of football.

 

[theGav56]

Love this thread by the way and the stats based insights.

 

[Cobbler]

It is interesting, but I think our forward line has so far been underwhelming, or perhaps unconvincing may be a better word. It has lacked consistency and cohesion, and looks exactly like what it is. A work in progress. Hogan is only showing glimpses, Taberner and McCarthy hot and cold, Matera terrific, but I am still nervous. Our delivery in there also a bit haphazard.

The key thing that your stats show is that there is enough to suggest that once the diamond gets polished it could really shine up a treat. I would say that the ceiling for them as a group is very high and I dream of them becoming as tight as the defence has become.

100% a work in progress, but it is the first time they've played together and it's not like they're just throwing 1 new guy in there... it's very different.

Once they learn to block and shield for each other, well the sky's the limit.

I'm excited and I think Hogan hasn't even turned up yet. He could be anything.

 

[theGav56]

100% a work in progress, but it is the first time they've played together and it's not like they're just throwing 1 new guy in there... it's very different.

Once they learn to block and shield for each other, well the sky's the limit.

I'm excited and I think Hogan hasn't even turned up yet. He could be anything.

They would know very little about each other and what they can expect. But you can see that when it does come together there is a pretty potent mix which compliments each other, has diversity, and will become dominant.

 

[Pusswah]

Composure with ball in hand and injuries will be key.

 

[Daddoo]

Along with Brisbane we're the only team to have 4 goal scorers kick 10 or more goals. Brisbane have 4 with exactly 10 each. We have:
Walters - 13
Matera - 12
Taberner - 11
McCarthy - 11

Although it doesn't seem important.....

But it is important. Look at how crap the Dees forwards are going atm. Without Hogan to take the pressure off of the rest of the group opposing defenses are matching up easily. All those guys with 10+ goals were on our team last year but didn’t go as well. Why not? Yes Tabs was hurt but the rest were there practically every game. Well We have more depth and a true KPF to take pressure off the rest of the group. Tabs and Hogan are gonna be a great duo once they work together for a bit. And Once the mids get their delivery right (Blakey will help) and our forwards kick straight we’ll be in most contests. When we click (against Roos and Giants) were a 100+ points team. Very positive signs.

Many of us wanted to see less blowouts and better contests and that’s exactly what has happened so far. WC just got cleaned by 58 by the Cats and we’re sitting two in the ladder. Loving the footy atm.


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[Spirit Level]

The synthesis of the forward line definitely needs work.

I distinctly remember a moment in the 1st quarter where we had the ball 70m out. Hogan, Tabs and McCarthy all stood withing 10m of each other with heaps of space around them and didnt move anywhere. They just all clumped together, no leading.

 

[Taylor]

And Once the mids get their delivery right (Blakey will help)

Blakely isn't an elite kick, his delivery inside fifty will be about the same as Brayshaw.

The player we want on the field is Stephen Hill.

 

[_007_]

Blakely is one of the very few cases I can think of of a player noticeably improving their kicking. His kicking is vastly superior to Brayshaw's in every aspect. More attacking options. Better skill execution. More of them in total. It is unbelievable he is compared to Brayshaw imo as it is simply not fair to Brayshaw. He is not close.

 

[FreoRicci]

The synthesis of the forward line definitely needs work.

I distinctly remember a moment in the 1st quarter where we had the ball 70m out. Hogan, Tabs and McCarthy all stood withing 10m of each other with heaps of space around them and didnt move anywhere. They just all clumped together, no leading.

Was bizarre to start the game. Lobb/Tabs/ Hogan didn’t even block each other and spread so well vs GWS. Against Bulldogs, that was thrown out. The number of times Lobb, Hogan and Tabs went for the same mark was ridiculous.
Iron that out more, and we kick more goals.

 

[FreoRicci]

Blakely isn't an elite kick, his delivery inside fifty will be about the same as Brayshaw.

The player we want on the field is Stephen Hill.

Big time. Stephen just hits targets coming out of the stoppages. Missing that.

 

[Daddoo]

Blakely isn't an elite kick, his delivery inside fifty will be about the same as Brayshaw.

The player we want on the field is Stephen Hill.

Totally agree, but Shill hasn't played a full season since 2015. Only 13 games last year. Let's be honest, he hasn't been in amazing form for a few years. Naturally, I hope he comes back and makes an impact, but unlike many on BF, I'm not holding my breath. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Joao]

Totally agree, but Shill hasn't played a full season since 2015. Only 13 games last year. Let's be honest, he hasn't been in amazing form for a few years. Naturally, I hope he comes back and makes an impact, but unlike many on BF, I'm not holding my breath. I hope I'm wrong.

Shill's form when fully fit has been very strong recently, he just barely ever is fully fit.

 

[MadMundy]

I'm loving that even spread of goal kickers that was mentioned earlier. In the end I think most would agree that you'd rather have about 3-4 guys kicking 30-40 goals in a season than one guy kicking 70-80. It shows that our forwards are able to back each other up and find the sticks when needed. I feel Hill has found his form that he had at Hawthorn because the guy has been unbeatable on the ground this season. good signs overall a quarter into the season.

 

[Tonga Bob]

great minds Cobbler, I was going to start up a stats thread to put the free kick table in.

here it is after six rounds - I much prefer the one based on points!!



and here's how we've fared:

 

[theGav56]

I'm loving that even spread of goal kickers that was mentioned earlier. In the end I think most would agree that you'd rather have about 3-4 guys kicking 30-40 goals in a season than one guy kicking 70-80. It shows that our forwards are able to back each other up and find the sticks when needed. I feel Hill has found his form that he had at Hawthorn because the guy has been unbeatable on the ground this season. good signs overall a quarter into the season.

Yes that spread of goal kickers is insanely good, especially considering that they aren't actually playing anywhere near their collective potential. I just see so much upside once Hogan gets it all together. Already his presence is making every single component of that forward line better, but there is more to come.

 

[Belnakor]

I'm excited and I think Hogan hasn't even turned up yet. He could be anything.

Hogan doesn't look 100%. He gets almost all his goals from goal sense / drifting out the back. Then between plays he is basically hobbling along.

Good effort from him to get up each week considering he had basically zero preseason. Best is yet to come.

 

[Steinfreo]

Blakely isn't an elite kick, his delivery inside fifty will be about the same as Brayshaw.

The player we want on the field is Stephen Hill.

We for sure do need Shill but we need to add more a graders in the middle. Blakely needs to come in for almost any one in the middle a part from Fyfe, Brad and Mundy in my opinion. Hes the next one we need to give a red hot go at taking that next step, then Logue. Cerra and Brayshaw have time.

 

[wayToGo_]

Walters the highest rated player for the last 4 rounds. Mundy at #4, Matera at #17. All the talk is Neale but the guy we've replaced him with in our midfield has been exceptional. Plenty are underrating our midfield - Fyfe hasn't even gone full beast mode yet and history suggests he will at some point. Just need to make sure we don't burn out any of our top 3 - Blakely coming back in this week or next week should help that a bit.