- Moderator
- #1
“I’m hoping our supporters can see that we’ve got a good young group coming through. Our NEAFL team had a good win today, so we think we’ve got some positive things coming through. It doesn’t always gel straight way, but we’ll keep trying to fast-track these kids as quickly as we can,” - John Longmire
I know its not a popular thing around these parts to quote Horse these days, but as I was reading the quotes from Horse's press conference on Saturday Night I was left in no doubt that the club was throwing the towel in on the rest of season, while trying to be as open as possible with the fan base about where we sit and what we plan on doing about it for the rest of the year - play the kids.
So will this year be a small dip for quick reward similar to 2009 or will we face a prolonged period down the ladder? As promised to Heeney2Franklin this is a look at where we sit.
Our Youth
Over the past 3 season we have blooded an impressive 22 young players while trying to compete for finals and avoiding a drop down the ladder but while we made the 2016 Grand Final to begin with we have slowly fallen behind the league as we continue our focus on the draft and allow a gap to open up between our youth and older players. So where we sit now has to leave the question are the kids good enough long term to take us to a Premiership?
Only 3 of the 22 players given their first games since 2016 are signed past 2020 (Mills, Blakey and McCartin) which indicates the club is unsure of where many of the remaining players sit. The likes of Dawson, Jones and O'Riordan are up for renewal this year and Florent, Hewett, Hayward, Ling, McInerney, Melican, Papley, Ronke, Rowbottom and Stoddart follow after next year. Most of this group we know about, but others we need to have games put into them so we can decide what futures they have and what roles they will fill and thus what areas we won't need to cover. Some we might even have to trade to rejig our age profile in the manner GWS keep doing.
Our List Profile
We have 12 players signed past 2020, of those 3 are over the age of 28 at the start of next season (Sinclair, Rampe and Buddy) so while these three will be important to us over the next few years they won't form our long term core. The future core is from the remaining 9 players we have signed long term Blakey, Mills, Heeney and McCartin are all under the age of 24 while Reid, Naismith, Allir, Lloyd and Parker are between the age of 24 and 28.
Its this group (along with the likes of Papley, Cunningham, Jones and Hewitt) that more or less will make up the core of our next successful side. Clearly when we look at this group weaknesses become clear and the direction of our rebuild becomes clear.
So what are our weaknesses?
Given we are playing with more of a focus to play though the corridor this year (abet slowly) our midfield has been a weakness which is not helped by the likes of Jones, Parker, Lloyd and Florent all being in the Top 50 for turnovers in the League. Skilled player by foot are needed badly and the likes of Rowbottom, McInerney and Ling are seen by the club as long term answers in this area but a focus on this continuing won't hurt.
Sinclair and Naismith being our long term rucks is going to be a weakness so has to be addressed sooner rather than later. Sinclair has done a great job carrying the load of our ruck division on his own, is great around the ground but is just not providing our midfield with first use that we need from a ruckman. Naismith is just too injury prone to be relied upon but his first use stats are a tease and show why he is signed for as long as he is.
Defense continue to soak up the pressure the midfield is giving up. You can see with the attempted trades for Moore and then Langdon last year that the club wants to improve the defense so they can release Mills into the midfield as they have with Jones. With what we have on our books currently Melican hasn't proven himself other than what we saw in 2017 and with Grundy out of the side and likely to retire at the end of the year we need to decide whether he is the long term replacement. The signs currently aren't promising. Depth in this area and an improvement to the midfield will help this group more than anything else.
So? Skills, Ruck, Defense - Its the midfield stupid.
The midfield is getting killed and in turn its hurting other areas of the team. The defense is getting overrun and the skills of the players on the way out when we have the ball means the forward line either has to chase after a turnover or is out of position because they are getting sucked up the ground. Improving the above areas can help the midfield out but it won't be the only way to solve the midfield issues. It will involve the coaches working to the strengths of the midfield via the gameplan they use.
So, just where are we at?
When you put this altogether it paints the coaching staff in a bad light, but I think the club isn't even thinking about sacking Horse let alone moving on from him. This board can become an echo chamber at times and doesn't reflect what the rest of the supporter base think nor the club itself. If the club was thinking of sacking Horse or he was told his job was in danger the above quote wouldn't of been made. A change in gameplan has started to take place and we're starting to look at what our list has available, I think Horse will be given time to put in place the start of the rebuild.
So if we get our trades right (if we make them) we could have a one year dip, but realistically this could be a prolonged dip as our core isn't as strong as the core we had in 2009. Its promising that a different kind of gameplan is being attempted but currently we just don't have the cattle to pull it off and it might be sometime until we do. People calling for a change of gameplan or more attacking style won't get what they want because even a move to play though the corridor has proven beyond this group of players and taking on more risks has seen the ball turned over in greater numbers.
I like our list in parts but we need this time down the ladder as we need to reinvent the list further than we can while challenging for finals and that means a few years out of the finals.
I know its not a popular thing around these parts to quote Horse these days, but as I was reading the quotes from Horse's press conference on Saturday Night I was left in no doubt that the club was throwing the towel in on the rest of season, while trying to be as open as possible with the fan base about where we sit and what we plan on doing about it for the rest of the year - play the kids.
So will this year be a small dip for quick reward similar to 2009 or will we face a prolonged period down the ladder? As promised to Heeney2Franklin this is a look at where we sit.
Our Youth
Over the past 3 season we have blooded an impressive 22 young players while trying to compete for finals and avoiding a drop down the ladder but while we made the 2016 Grand Final to begin with we have slowly fallen behind the league as we continue our focus on the draft and allow a gap to open up between our youth and older players. So where we sit now has to leave the question are the kids good enough long term to take us to a Premiership?
Only 3 of the 22 players given their first games since 2016 are signed past 2020 (Mills, Blakey and McCartin) which indicates the club is unsure of where many of the remaining players sit. The likes of Dawson, Jones and O'Riordan are up for renewal this year and Florent, Hewett, Hayward, Ling, McInerney, Melican, Papley, Ronke, Rowbottom and Stoddart follow after next year. Most of this group we know about, but others we need to have games put into them so we can decide what futures they have and what roles they will fill and thus what areas we won't need to cover. Some we might even have to trade to rejig our age profile in the manner GWS keep doing.
Our List Profile
We have 12 players signed past 2020, of those 3 are over the age of 28 at the start of next season (Sinclair, Rampe and Buddy) so while these three will be important to us over the next few years they won't form our long term core. The future core is from the remaining 9 players we have signed long term Blakey, Mills, Heeney and McCartin are all under the age of 24 while Reid, Naismith, Allir, Lloyd and Parker are between the age of 24 and 28.
Its this group (along with the likes of Papley, Cunningham, Jones and Hewitt) that more or less will make up the core of our next successful side. Clearly when we look at this group weaknesses become clear and the direction of our rebuild becomes clear.
So what are our weaknesses?
Given we are playing with more of a focus to play though the corridor this year (abet slowly) our midfield has been a weakness which is not helped by the likes of Jones, Parker, Lloyd and Florent all being in the Top 50 for turnovers in the League. Skilled player by foot are needed badly and the likes of Rowbottom, McInerney and Ling are seen by the club as long term answers in this area but a focus on this continuing won't hurt.
Sinclair and Naismith being our long term rucks is going to be a weakness so has to be addressed sooner rather than later. Sinclair has done a great job carrying the load of our ruck division on his own, is great around the ground but is just not providing our midfield with first use that we need from a ruckman. Naismith is just too injury prone to be relied upon but his first use stats are a tease and show why he is signed for as long as he is.
Defense continue to soak up the pressure the midfield is giving up. You can see with the attempted trades for Moore and then Langdon last year that the club wants to improve the defense so they can release Mills into the midfield as they have with Jones. With what we have on our books currently Melican hasn't proven himself other than what we saw in 2017 and with Grundy out of the side and likely to retire at the end of the year we need to decide whether he is the long term replacement. The signs currently aren't promising. Depth in this area and an improvement to the midfield will help this group more than anything else.
So? Skills, Ruck, Defense - Its the midfield stupid.
The midfield is getting killed and in turn its hurting other areas of the team. The defense is getting overrun and the skills of the players on the way out when we have the ball means the forward line either has to chase after a turnover or is out of position because they are getting sucked up the ground. Improving the above areas can help the midfield out but it won't be the only way to solve the midfield issues. It will involve the coaches working to the strengths of the midfield via the gameplan they use.
So, just where are we at?
When you put this altogether it paints the coaching staff in a bad light, but I think the club isn't even thinking about sacking Horse let alone moving on from him. This board can become an echo chamber at times and doesn't reflect what the rest of the supporter base think nor the club itself. If the club was thinking of sacking Horse or he was told his job was in danger the above quote wouldn't of been made. A change in gameplan has started to take place and we're starting to look at what our list has available, I think Horse will be given time to put in place the start of the rebuild.
So if we get our trades right (if we make them) we could have a one year dip, but realistically this could be a prolonged dip as our core isn't as strong as the core we had in 2009. Its promising that a different kind of gameplan is being attempted but currently we just don't have the cattle to pull it off and it might be sometime until we do. People calling for a change of gameplan or more attacking style won't get what they want because even a move to play though the corridor has proven beyond this group of players and taking on more risks has seen the ball turned over in greater numbers.
I like our list in parts but we need this time down the ladder as we need to reinvent the list further than we can while challenging for finals and that means a few years out of the finals.
