Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[Forward Press]

Interesting that Freo and Adelaide appear to have been "rewarded" by the squiggle for that shitshow on Sunday. One of the clearest discrepancies between eye-test and algorithm I can recall.

As always Squiggle loves defensive football. It is what it is and as previous premiers have shown better defences do tend to win it more often.

 

[armpit]

Interesting that Freo and Adelaide appear to have been "rewarded" by the squiggle for that shitshow on Sunday. One of the clearest discrepancies between eye-test and algorithm I can recall.

Only to the blind.

 

[iluvparis]

As always Squiggle loves defensive football. It is what it is and as previous premiers have shown better defences do tend to win it more often.

Only in the last few years - prior to that those kind of low scoring super defensive teams were generally falling short when it came to the big dance.

 

[Forward Press]

Only in the last few years - prior to that those kind of low scoring super defensive teams were generally falling short when it came to the big dance.

Correct but with the last few premiers tending to be better in defence is it any wonder teams are now opting for more defensive mindsets?

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Only to the blind.

I'd love some insight from the tacticians on both clubs as to exactly what happened in the game. Both clubs have shown they can score heavily this year.
I wonder if it was mutual fear of the others capacity to score that caused them both to shut it down, playing numbers behind the ball.

 

[Final Siren]

Mmm, it's an interesting one!

Both teams were mildly upgraded by Squiggle after the game, because it likes extremely strong defensive performances more than it likes extremely strong attacking performances. This is because it's more common for great defensive games to signal strong future performances than high-scoring games.

Personally I suspect this is because it's a little easier for a team to get off the chain and score very heavily in two or three quarters than it is to lock an opposition down for the entire game, as is required to hold them to a low total score. (Squiggle considers behinds to be worth more than half a goal, so a "strong defensive performance" can't just be due to the oppo missing shots.) So when a team tightly restricts scoring shots for a whole match, Squiggle likes that a whole lot.

Usually a scoreline like 7.9 to 5.4 means terrible weather, but this time it really just was two very defensive performances. So it will be interesting to see how these teams go.

One note: If you're using Live Squiggle, just be careful with your screen resolution, because if you have the chart stretched out very wide, it will exaggerate defensive (horizontal) movement. You probably want to click the "1:1" button first.

 

[lamby]

I'd love some insight from the tacticians on both clubs as to exactly what happened in the game. Both clubs have shown they can score heavily this year.
I wonder if it was mutual fear of the others capacity to score that caused them both to shut it down, playing numbers behind the ball.

I don’t think that is an accurate representation of the game. The Crows should have got between 4-6 goals better of because of 2 reasons:
- bad kicking. Goals per expectancy was probably the worst for the year.
- non-free kicks. 10 frees each. In the first quarter alone there were 4 non-paying of frees that would resulted in shots on goal opportunities.

A ‘normal’ interpretation of the rules (twice the number of free kicks) would have (probably) added 3-6 extra goals to the game.

 

[Young Gun #6]

I don’t think that is an accurate representation of the game. The Crows should have got between 4-6 goals better of because of 2 reasons:
- bad kicking. Goals per expectancy was probably the worst for the year.
- non-free kicks. 10 frees each. In the first quarter alone there were 4 non-paying of frees that would resulted in shots on goal opportunities.

A ‘normal’ interpretation of the rules (twice the number of free kicks) would have (probably) added 3-6 extra goals to the game.

I wouldn’t say that to Fremantle supporters..

 

[SC26]

Final Siren
I noticed on the current season predictor that Adelaide are 6th and Brisbane are 7th, yet Brisbane are hosting the 6v7 final in the finals predictions.
Wouldn't Adelaide be hosting the final at Adelaide Oval, being the 6th placed team?

 

[Final Siren]

View attachment 669593
Final Siren
I noticed on the current season predictor that Adelaide are 6th and Brisbane are 7th, yet Brisbane are hosting the 6v7 final in the finals predictions.
Wouldn't Adelaide be hosting the final at Adelaide Oval, being the 6th placed team?

Ah, thanks for that. Now fixed.

 

[caloschwaby]

Final Siren Appreciate all the work you do on this fine algorithm.
Any chance that the exact Attack/Defence ratings for each team could be added to show when hovering over a team in on the Squiggle chart?

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren Appreciate all the work you do on this fine algorithm.
Any chance that the exact Attack/Defence ratings for each team could be added to show when hovering over a team in on the Squiggle chart?

Sure! Added.

 

[Billy ray]

hmm, why cant I see the squiggle any more ?
https://squiggle.com.au/
has games across the top
a story on aggregated projected ladder
link to podcast
some embedded tweets
but no link to get to squiggle

 

[MWPP]

hmm, why cant I see the squiggle any more ?
https://squiggle.com.au/
has games across the top
a story on aggregated projected ladder
link to podcast
some embedded tweets
but no link to get to squiggle

It’s on that page, but further down and smaller
This works for me as a direct link
https://live.squiggle.com.au

 

[Final Siren]

Yeah I moved it underneath the ladder:

 

[Billy ray]

ok thanks
will try that link
mine looks like this

 

[Final Siren]

Interesting, the image is swallowing the whole page. What browser / device / operating system is this?

 

[Billy ray]

Interesting, the image is swallowing the whole page. What browser / device / operating system is this?

internet explorer 11

 

[Final Siren]

internet explorer 11

Well that's not good, Billy. I have to be honest with you. That is one crappy browser. I will fix the site for you, but it's definitely worth looking into something more modern (Chrome, Firefox) if you're at all able.

 

[Billy ray]

yeh I know its crap - its a work computer !
don't worry about fixing site if it stuffs it up for 99% of users who are living in the current year....

 

[Final Siren]

Nah it's good to know -- thanks for reporting it. Will get it fixed.

 

[Gralin]

internet explorer 11

Unless the answer is you work for a government department and then I get it, but still ,apply for firefox

 

[Hobbes]

Sydney v Essendon +23
Western Bulldogs +3 v Brisbane
Carlton v Collingwood +40
Gold Coast +6 v Melbourne
St Kilda +2 v West Coast
Port Adelaide v Adelaide +6
North Melbourne v Geelong +34
Hawthorn v GWS +18
Fremantle +24 v Richmond

4/9. Running total 42/72

1. Geelong 25.7
2. Collingwood 19.7
3. Adelaide 11.0 (+1)
4. GWS 8.8 (-1)
5. Essendon 4.3 (+1)
6. West Coast 3.4 (+1)
7. Port Adelaide 2.3 (+1)
8. Fremantle 2.2 (-3)
9. Richmond 1.4 (+3)
10. Hawthorn 1.3 (+4)
11. Western Bulldogs -0.1 (-1)
12. Brisbane -2.6 (-3)
13. North Melbourne -4.5
14. St Kilda -7.6 (-3)
15. Carlton -12.4 (+2)
16. Sydney -13.5 (+2)
17. Melbourne -14.0 (-1)
18. Gold Coast -18.2 (-3)

West Coast +26 v Melbourne
Collingwood +27 v St Kilda
Brisbane v Adelaide +4
Geelong +26 v Western Bulldogs
Essendon +11 v Fremantle
North Melbourne +14 v Sydney
Port Adelaide +31 v Gold Coast
Richmond +1 v Hawthorn (almost tips a tie)
GWS +26 v Carlton

 

[BEaston]

interesting movement for essendon there

 

[Hobbes]

interesting movement for essendon there

If you're talking to me, their rating went down, but Fremantle went down more, and nobody overtook them coming up.