List Mgmt. Tom Wilson Signs with Collingwood

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

I'm not saying those guys are specifically better. Collins is an elite intercept mark (historic numbers in the VFL last year) but he's not the stopper Moore is and in overall game is behind. Weitering struggles defending the lead, he's having a good season but he's not on Moore's level yet as a younger player.

Walker I'm liking a lot and he's probably better as an intercepter than Moore but not as athletic, as skilled or as good of a stopper so just behind.

Overall I see it as there are an incredible number of really exceptional key defenders in the competition.

The main point of contention as been that many feel Moore is an All-Australian this year and I'm not prepared to agree. This year I'd be picking McGovern and Hooker with Stewart as a third tall. Though there are another 10 or so exceptional key defenders with the players at that position really evolving over recent years with the quality of key defenders the best it's ever been with all these intercept marking and contested marking key defenders and few plain stoppers who don't offer anything else.

Cake Hooker has played four of the seven games this year dude, what are you talking about? Blicavs deserves to be the second best defender and Pearce the best. Putting Walker in there is just being a contrarian. Moore is very good overhead, but his real strength is being better on the ground than his opponent. There wouldn't be a player 200cm who is as agile and better below his knees.

McGovern has been decidedly average (for him) this year. He'd still be my third choice, so overall I agree that Moore is not in AA contention. But if his body holds together for another 15 games and he trends the way he is, that could very well change.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

If Moore keeps going the way he is he will be All Australian, whether he deserves it or not.

The jungle drums are beating and the media is jumping on his bandwagon. That's how you make it.

 

[Knightmare]

Cake Hooker has played four of the seven games this year dude, what are you talking about? Blicavs deserves to be the second best defender and Pearce the best. Putting Walker in there is just being a contrarian. Moore is very good overhead, but his real strength is being better on the ground than his opponent. There wouldn't be a player 200cm who is as agile and better below his knees.

McGovern has been decidedly average (for him) this year. He'd still be my third choice, so overall I agree that Moore is not in AA contention. But if his body holds together for another 15 games and he trends the way he is, that could very well change.

I'll repeat what I said in the Moore thread to refute this notion that Moore is playing better football than McGovern:

Moore is the better athlete. He's a good kick, but McGovern can kick also with almost identical kicking efficiencies though McGovern has turned the ball over 4 less times. You're right to point out Moore has 3 more intercepts than McGovern. But despite what seems to be the popular perception of the last few days they're not on parr. McGovern is outright the better player today and Moore is still chasing.

Intercept marks McGovern is up 3. Contested marks McGovern is up 2. Marks McGovern is up 22. 7 more one percenters for McGovern. 12 more pressure acts from McGovern including four more in the back half (this shouldn't happen when we're comparing a guy who isn't an athlete v Moore who is). 1 more spoil to McGovern. Despite contesting five more 1v1s (32 v 27) McGovern has half the 1v1 losses by contrast to Moore with (3 v 6) for loss percentages 1v1 of 9.4% v a still acceptable 22.2% from Moore.

With McGovern not only the much better intercept mark/contested mark (and teams actively try not to kick anywhere near him) + in entirely different conversations 1v1 while in most other categories McGovern is beating Moore out. It's premature to be crowning Moore because he's not better than McGovern whether your talking about McGovern last year or this year.

--
I can't say I agree with the names you're putting forward as alternatives either.

Alex Pearce? He's not one of the 10 best key defenders in the competition let alone in the conversation with the best at his position. Low spoil numbers at 3.9 per game, poor mark (3.1), contested mark (0.9), intercept mark (2) and disposal numbers (11.4) numbers as a key defender who doesn't intercept and playing a heavily accountability focused role has nothing on McGovern's 1v1 win percentage with a win % of 20.8 (not even half as good as McGovern's). So he neither holds a candle to McGovern as an intercept marking force nor as a 1v1 defender.

Blicavs is a very different player to Moore and I have them roughly on parr but he wouldn't be my choice for All-Australian. His tackling and pressure acts are both elite. 1v1 win % also very good at 15.4%. He just doesn't generate any drive and isn't much of an intercepter so I can't outright give him the credit to say he's better than Moore outright because he is in some category but in some of the most important he lags behind and is average or below average by position.

Hooker has only played the four games. But he's playing really good football. Marks (9), contested marks (2.5) and intercept marks (4.3) are all elite and without knowing how to see player stats on a per game basis I imagine Hooker of all key defenders would be leading in all three of these key areas. He's also at 9 intercept possessions to Moore's 8.9. So he's the premier intercepter in the competition. He's not perfect. 1v1 he needs to improve and after intercept marks/contested marks/intercept possessions that's for me that next most essential area and the fourth real essential for me when considering the best key defenders/what aspects to give the heaviest weighting to. But he's after McGovern at this stage the best of the rest and I'm expecting his 1v1 win rate to improve with more games.

 

[sirlothie]

I'll repeat what I said in the Moore thread to refute this notion that Moore is playing better football than McGovern:

Moore is the better athlete. He's a good kick, but McGovern can kick also with almost identical kicking efficiencies though McGovern has turned the ball over 4 less times. You're right to point out Moore has 3 more intercepts than McGovern. But despite what seems to be the popular perception of the last few days they're not on parr. McGovern is outright the better player today and Moore is still chasing.

Intercept marks McGovern is up 3. Contested marks McGovern is up 2. Marks McGovern is up 22. 7 more one percenters for McGovern. 12 more pressure acts from McGovern including four more in the back half (this shouldn't happen when we're comparing a guy who isn't an athlete v Moore who is). 1 more spoil to McGovern. Despite contesting five more 1v1s (32 v 27) McGovern has half the 1v1 losses by contrast to Moore with (3 v 6) for loss percentages 1v1 of 9.4% v a still acceptable 22.2% from Moore.

With McGovern not only the much better intercept mark/contested mark (and teams actively try not to kick anywhere near him) + in entirely different conversations 1v1 while in most other categories McGovern is beating Moore out. It's premature to be crowning Moore because he's not better than McGovern whether your talking about McGovern last year or this year.

--
I can't say I agree with the names you're putting forward as alternatives either.

Alex Pearce? He's not one of the 10 best key defenders in the competition let alone in the conversation with the best at his position. Low spoil numbers at 3.9 per game, poor mark (3.1), contested mark (0.9), intercept mark (2) and disposal numbers (11.4) numbers as a key defender who doesn't intercept and playing a heavily accountability focused role has nothing on McGovern's 1v1 win percentage with a win % of 20.8 (not even half as good as McGovern's). So he neither holds a candle to McGovern as an intercept marking force nor as a 1v1 defender.

Blicavs is a very different player to Moore and I have them roughly on parr but he wouldn't be my choice for All-Australian. His tackling and pressure acts are both elite. 1v1 win % also very good at 15.4%. He just doesn't generate any drive and isn't much of an intercepter so I can't outright give him the credit to say he's better than Moore outright because he is in some category but in some of the most important he lags behind and is average or below average by position.

Hooker has only played the four games. But he's playing really good football. Marks (9), contested marks (2.5) and intercept marks (4.3) are all elite and without knowing how to see player stats on a per game basis I imagine Hooker of all key defenders would be leading in all three of these key areas. He's also at 9 intercept possessions to Moore's 8.9. So he's the premier intercepter in the competition. He's not perfect. 1v1 he needs to improve and after intercept marks/contested marks/intercept possessions that's for me that next most essential area and the fourth real essential for me when considering the best key defenders/what aspects to give the heaviest weighting to. But he's after McGovern at this stage the best of the rest and I'm expecting his 1v1 win rate to improve with more games.

There's too many variables, Hooker plays in a weaker side in a weaker defence so he is expected to do more. The stats might have him marginally ahead of Moore on a limited sample size but the naked eye says Moore is better. Hooker is workmanlike but doesn't have the natural gifts of Moore, just because someone's stats look a bit better on paper doesn't mean they are the better player or even in the better form. This is a clear example. Without looking at the stats just ask anyone who is having the better year, Moore or Hooker? Everyone will say Moore. Most people will say Moore isn't quite up to the level of McGovern too and the stats do prove that but Moore potentially is better because he has the physical gifts and time on his side. That's why they are saying he might be a generational player due to his physical gifts but that doesn't even mean he's the best now. Nobody will ever rate players the same but next year Moore will probably be in the top 50 and Hooker won't or he will be below Moore in any case even if he just pips Moore in statistical categories, everyone know Moore is the better specimen.

 

[Thatsmyname]

I sense a bit of blue blood swagger, if he had a light sheen on him in the mounting yards I'd say they'd pulled Makybe Diva out of retirement.

 

[sr36]

I'll repeat what I said in the Moore thread to refute this notion that Moore is playing better football than McGovern:

Moore is the better athlete. He's a good kick, but McGovern can kick also with almost identical kicking efficiencies though McGovern has turned the ball over 4 less times. You're right to point out Moore has 3 more intercepts than McGovern. But despite what seems to be the popular perception of the last few days they're not on parr. McGovern is outright the better player today and Moore is still chasing.

Intercept marks McGovern is up 3. Contested marks McGovern is up 2. Marks McGovern is up 22. 7 more one percenters for McGovern. 12 more pressure acts from McGovern including four more in the back half (this shouldn't happen when we're comparing a guy who isn't an athlete v Moore who is). 1 more spoil to McGovern. Despite contesting five more 1v1s (32 v 27) McGovern has half the 1v1 losses by contrast to Moore with (3 v 6) for loss percentages 1v1 of 9.4% v a still acceptable 22.2% from Moore.

With McGovern not only the much better intercept mark/contested mark (and teams actively try not to kick anywhere near him) + in entirely different conversations 1v1 while in most other categories McGovern is beating Moore out. It's premature to be crowning Moore because he's not better than McGovern whether your talking about McGovern last year or this year.

--
I can't say I agree with the names you're putting forward as alternatives either.

Alex Pearce? He's not one of the 10 best key defenders in the competition let alone in the conversation with the best at his position. Low spoil numbers at 3.9 per game, poor mark (3.1), contested mark (0.9), intercept mark (2) and disposal numbers (11.4) numbers as a key defender who doesn't intercept and playing a heavily accountability focused role has nothing on McGovern's 1v1 win percentage with a win % of 20.8 (not even half as good as McGovern's). So he neither holds a candle to McGovern as an intercept marking force nor as a 1v1 defender.

Blicavs is a very different player to Moore and I have them roughly on parr but he wouldn't be my choice for All-Australian. His tackling and pressure acts are both elite. 1v1 win % also very good at 15.4%. He just doesn't generate any drive and isn't much of an intercepter so I can't outright give him the credit to say he's better than Moore outright because he is in some category but in some of the most important he lags behind and is average or below average by position.

Hooker has only played the four games. But he's playing really good football. Marks (9), contested marks (2.5) and intercept marks (4.3) are all elite and without knowing how to see player stats on a per game basis I imagine Hooker of all key defenders would be leading in all three of these key areas. He's also at 9 intercept possessions to Moore's 8.9. So he's the premier intercepter in the competition. He's not perfect. 1v1 he needs to improve and after intercept marks/contested marks/intercept possessions that's for me that next most essential area and the fourth real essential for me when considering the best key defenders/what aspects to give the heaviest weighting to. But he's after McGovern at this stage the best of the rest and I'm expecting his 1v1 win rate to improve with more games.

Jeez KM, you've got a good eye and you know what you're talking about, but surely you know that these stat comparisons are meaningless. They all play different roles in different teams with different instructions. Put Blicavs in the Pies defence iwth Darcy's insturctions and his stats skew in a different direction. Same with all of them. Put MCGovern in Rance's role and he is defending deeper and his stats change - intercepts go down. Take away McGovern's reputation and teams don't go out of their way to avoid him - his stats rise. And frankly your talking as though what equates to an extra 1 intercept per game over a very small number of games is a significant statistical measure. That might just be one opposition miskick that hit you on the tit.

 

[THATSGOLD]

I think Moore can win the Brownlow but I don’t want to hijack Tom Wilsons Welcome thread.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

So the 2016 draft would have been his draft?

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

I'll repeat what I said in the Moore thread to refute this notion that Moore is playing better football than McGovern:

Moore is the better athlete. He's a good kick, but McGovern can kick also with almost identical kicking efficiencies though McGovern has turned the ball over 4 less times. You're right to point out Moore has 3 more intercepts than McGovern. But despite what seems to be the popular perception of the last few days they're not on parr. McGovern is outright the better player today and Moore is still chasing.

Intercept marks McGovern is up 3. Contested marks McGovern is up 2. Marks McGovern is up 22. 7 more one percenters for McGovern. 12 more pressure acts from McGovern including four more in the back half (this shouldn't happen when we're comparing a guy who isn't an athlete v Moore who is). 1 more spoil to McGovern. Despite contesting five more 1v1s (32 v 27) McGovern has half the 1v1 losses by contrast to Moore with (3 v 6) for loss percentages 1v1 of 9.4% v a still acceptable 22.2% from Moore.

With McGovern not only the much better intercept mark/contested mark (and teams actively try not to kick anywhere near him) + in entirely different conversations 1v1 while in most other categories McGovern is beating Moore out. It's premature to be crowning Moore because he's not better than McGovern whether your talking about McGovern last year or this year.

--
I can't say I agree with the names you're putting forward as alternatives either.

Alex Pearce? He's not one of the 10 best key defenders in the competition let alone in the conversation with the best at his position. Low spoil numbers at 3.9 per game, poor mark (3.1), contested mark (0.9), intercept mark (2) and disposal numbers (11.4) numbers as a key defender who doesn't intercept and playing a heavily accountability focused role has nothing on McGovern's 1v1 win percentage with a win % of 20.8 (not even half as good as McGovern's). So he neither holds a candle to McGovern as an intercept marking force nor as a 1v1 defender.

Blicavs is a very different player to Moore and I have them roughly on parr but he wouldn't be my choice for All-Australian. His tackling and pressure acts are both elite. 1v1 win % also very good at 15.4%. He just doesn't generate any drive and isn't much of an intercepter so I can't outright give him the credit to say he's better than Moore outright because he is in some category but in some of the most important he lags behind and is average or below average by position.

Hooker has only played the four games. But he's playing really good football. Marks (9), contested marks (2.5) and intercept marks (4.3) are all elite and without knowing how to see player stats on a per game basis I imagine Hooker of all key defenders would be leading in all three of these key areas. He's also at 9 intercept possessions to Moore's 8.9. So he's the premier intercepter in the competition. He's not perfect. 1v1 he needs to improve and after intercept marks/contested marks/intercept possessions that's for me that next most essential area and the fourth real essential for me when considering the best key defenders/what aspects to give the heaviest weighting to. But he's after McGovern at this stage the best of the rest and I'm expecting his 1v1 win rate to improve with more games.

Have you actually watched the games this year, or are you just basing everything off stats? Intercepts are all well and good, but what about allowing your man to get away and kick goals? What about being the best key defender in the best defence in the league? I don't need stats for Pearce, I'll just watch him play and shutdown another key forward each week.

McGovern is a significantly better player than Moore right now, but we are talking about just their production this year. West Coast have been smashed three times this year, allowing more opportunities for McGovern to bulk up his stats. That doesn't mean he is playing as well as the last couple of years. Having said this, by the end of the year I fully expect McGovern to be in the AA team, because he is a superstar.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

I'll repeat what I said in the Moore thread to refute this notion that Moore is playing better football than McGovern:

Moore is the better athlete. He's a good kick, but McGovern can kick also with almost identical kicking efficiencies though McGovern has turned the ball over 4 less times. You're right to point out Moore has 3 more intercepts than McGovern. But despite what seems to be the popular perception of the last few days they're not on parr. McGovern is outright the better player today and Moore is still chasing.

Intercept marks McGovern is up 3. Contested marks McGovern is up 2. Marks McGovern is up 22. 7 more one percenters for McGovern. 12 more pressure acts from McGovern including four more in the back half (this shouldn't happen when we're comparing a guy who isn't an athlete v Moore who is). 1 more spoil to McGovern. Despite contesting five more 1v1s (32 v 27) McGovern has half the 1v1 losses by contrast to Moore with (3 v 6) for loss percentages 1v1 of 9.4% v a still acceptable 22.2% from Moore.

With McGovern not only the much better intercept mark/contested mark (and teams actively try not to kick anywhere near him) + in entirely different conversations 1v1 while in most other categories McGovern is beating Moore out. It's premature to be crowning Moore because he's not better than McGovern whether your talking about McGovern last year or this year.

--
I can't say I agree with the names you're putting forward as alternatives either.

Alex Pearce? He's not one of the 10 best key defenders in the competition let alone in the conversation with the best at his position. Low spoil numbers at 3.9 per game, poor mark (3.1), contested mark (0.9), intercept mark (2) and disposal numbers (11.4) numbers as a key defender who doesn't intercept and playing a heavily accountability focused role has nothing on McGovern's 1v1 win percentage with a win % of 20.8 (not even half as good as McGovern's). So he neither holds a candle to McGovern as an intercept marking force nor as a 1v1 defender.

Blicavs is a very different player to Moore and I have them roughly on parr but he wouldn't be my choice for All-Australian. His tackling and pressure acts are both elite. 1v1 win % also very good at 15.4%. He just doesn't generate any drive and isn't much of an intercepter so I can't outright give him the credit to say he's better than Moore outright because he is in some category but in some of the most important he lags behind and is average or below average by position.

Hooker has only played the four games. But he's playing really good football. Marks (9), contested marks (2.5) and intercept marks (4.3) are all elite and without knowing how to see player stats on a per game basis I imagine Hooker of all key defenders would be leading in all three of these key areas. He's also at 9 intercept possessions to Moore's 8.9. So he's the premier intercepter in the competition. He's not perfect. 1v1 he needs to improve and after intercept marks/contested marks/intercept possessions that's for me that next most essential area and the fourth real essential for me when considering the best key defenders/what aspects to give the heaviest weighting to. But he's after McGovern at this stage the best of the rest and I'm expecting his 1v1 win rate to improve with more games.

I truly value your opinion and love reading almost all your posts about this kind of thing, but it seems strange to make these comparisons based purely on stats.

McGovern has more this, more that....yeah? McGovern is also part of a team that is losing more games and by bigger margins which means the ball is coming down to him way more often than it is to Moore or Pearce.

So Moore is only SLIGHTLY behind him statistically despite a significantly smaller amount of ball coming down there.

Based on 2019 form and not past reputation, Moore, Pearce and Blicsavs are all ahead of McGovern. Am I saying they're better players than McGovern? No. But if we're talking All-Australian selection based on 2019 form right now, Moore, Pearce and Blicsavs are ahead. Comfortably.

 

[neilk]

Looks like he’s working on emulating Stephenson’s set shot routine.

 

[76woodenspooners]

“Hmmm, it’s not round. Interesting”

 

[Knightmare]

I truly value your opinion and love reading almost all your posts about this kind of thing, but it seems strange to make these comparisons based purely on stats.

McGovern has more this, more that....yeah? McGovern is also part of a team that is losing more games and by bigger margins which means the ball is coming down to him way more often than it is to Moore or Pearce.

So Moore is only SLIGHTLY behind him statistically despite a significantly smaller amount of ball coming down there.

Based on 2019 form and not past reputation, Moore, Pearce and Blicsavs are all ahead of McGovern. Am I saying they're better players than McGovern? No. But if we're talking All-Australian selection based on 2019 form right now, Moore, Pearce and Blicsavs are ahead. Comfortably.

I can come out and say McGovern is entirely more dominant than Moore. But without evidence. It means bugger all. And those stats show that McGovern is not only a better intercepter but also a substantially better stopper than Moore or any of his peers for that matter.

Those selections belong in the 90s. I don't regard any of them top 5 key defenders right now. Moore is the only of those who can intercept and rebound.

 

[Knightmare]

Have you actually watched the games this year, or are you just basing everything off stats? Intercepts are all well and good, but what about allowing your man to get away and kick goals? What about being the best key defender in the best defence in the league? I don't need stats for Pearce, I'll just watch him play and shutdown another key forward each week.

McGovern is a significantly better player than Moore right now, but we are talking about just their production this year. West Coast have been smashed three times this year, allowing more opportunities for McGovern to bulk up his stats. That doesn't mean he is playing as well as the last couple of years. Having said this, by the end of the year I fully expect McGovern to be in the AA team, because he is a superstar.

Team defence is more than one player. McGovern's team and individual defence is the best in the competition. He isn't however getting the same support from his peers this year to look as good either individually or as a team.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Dunno, didn’t notice him once.

Who did Hooker play on against us? I assume Cox?

Cox kept Hooker quiet.

 

[76woodenspooners]

It’s a very interesting way that Tom Wilson has gotten into the AFL, and I wonder if we’ll start to see more of it.

So he’s gone off and done another sport for three years:

* Had the experience of being in a different elite sporting environment
* Had different experiences that he wouldn’t have the opportunity to have in the AFL
* Bypassed the whole drama of the AFL draft. Avoids dud clubs. Lives in the city he wants to. He’s a free agent
* Doesn’t take up a regular list spot. He’s a ‘free kick’ for the club that gets him. Makes him in demand.
* Not constrained by being paid draftee wages.
* Gets paid outside the salary cap, so no pressure on clubs to squeeze his contract

The lad hasn’t kicked a footy in five years, he is the same age as Callum Brown, and he’s probably getting paid more coin and has just signed a three year deal.

Why would an elite u18 AFL talent who has their choice of sports choose to start their career in the AFL? AFL is the perfect ‘Plan B’. And elite AFL schoolboys are generally elite at any sport they turn their hand to.

Gee, what must Nathan Murphy be thinking?

 

[Saintly Viewed]

If Moore keeps going the way he is he will be All Australian, whether he deserves it or not.

The jungle drums are beating and the media is jumping on his bandwagon. That's how you make it.

There is a lot of truth in this post.

Whether it should or shouldn’t be, the All Australian selections are in part about what you call the “jungle drums.”

 

[Knightmare]

Jeez KM, you've got a good eye and you know what you're talking about, but surely you know that these stat comparisons are meaningless. They all play different roles in different teams with different instructions. Put Blicavs in the Pies defence iwth Darcy's insturctions and his stats skew in a different direction. Same with all of them. Put MCGovern in Rance's role and he is defending deeper and his stats change - intercepts go down. Take away McGovern's reputation and teams don't go out of their way to avoid him - his stats rise. And frankly your talking as though what equates to an extra 1 intercept per game over a very small number of games is a significant statistical measure. That might just be one opposition miskick that hit you on the tit.

People can interpret for themselves which stats are significant. 1v1 success rate is the largest separator this year with McGovern. Then slight edges in the other statistical categories. As more games are played I expect we will see greater separation in a number of the other key categories.

 

[sr36]

People can interpret for themselves which stats are significant. 1v1 success rate is the largest separator this year with McGovern. Then slight edges in the other statistical categories. As more games are played I expect we will see greater separation in a number of the other key categories.

My point is that these stats are as much a product of the roles they play in the system they play as they are a product of the bloke's excellence. They all play for different teams with different systems and structures and different levels of support. Pop these guys in a different team with a different system and tweak thier role and their stats will skew off in a different direction. Thus you're stats are comparing apples to oranges

 

[Soups]

Cox kept Hooker quiet.

Must of paid him.

 

[Bad Horse]

Must of paid him.

Maybe Hooker has a heart of gold.

 

[jackcass]

Maybe Hooker has a heart of gold.

He's been to Hollywood, he's been to Redwood....

 

[Bad Horse]

He's been to Hollywood, he's been to Redwood....

And we know Cox has crossed an ocean...

 

[Mooresome]

People can interpret for themselves which stats are significant. 1v1 success rate is the largest separator this year with McGovern. Then slight edges in the other statistical categories. As more games are played I expect we will see greater separation in a number of the other key categories.

I will go with my own eyes ,and the only time i have seen Moore v McGovern ,Moore not only beat him but beat the rest of his back line ,so if he can't beat Moore he isn't better than Moore.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Must of paid him.

Payment and the role Hooker plays is hence negotiable.