Opinion Commentary & Media III

[giantroo]

 

[Snake_Baker]

He played that way too!

Put his head over the ball and went in hard.....every.........single.............time.

Watch him burrow through a pack of scum like a mini buldozer.


.

Hille 6'8", Fletcher 6'6", Lucas 6'4", he bores straight through the lot of them!

I was his player sponsor one year. As honest as they came. I Loved the bloke.

 

[shintemaster]

Yeah, they keep but don't publish things things like effective metres gained, assisted metres gained (how many metres gained by the player you give the ball to - players like Mitchell and Cunnington tend to rate highly in that), metres conceded from turnovers, etc. Its one of those stats where big differences can tell you something about what sort of player someone is, not a contest where you're trying to eke out an extra 20m a game as a main KPI. Like, obviously Cunners at 165m and Higgo at 452m from about 30 disposals each are different kinds of players. And just as obviously, by the eye test, Higgo's 452 metres aren't as damaging this year as last year.

(also Cunners with less than 3 turnovers a game from about 30d/18cp is outrageous).

Those would be great stats. How annoying that we don't get to see them. Would love to compare what they say to what our impression of a player says. No stat will ever replace the eye test, but then the eye can also lie.

 

[Val Keating]

Yeah, they keep but don't publish things things like effective metres gained, assisted metres gained (how many metres gained by the player you give the ball to - players like Mitchell and Cunnington tend to rate highly in that), metres conceded from turnovers, etc. Its one of those stats where big differences can tell you something about what sort of player someone is, not a contest where you're trying to eke out an extra 20m a game as a main KPI. Like, obviously Cunners at 165m and Higgo at 452m from about 30 disposals each are different kinds of players. And just as obviously, by the eye test, Higgo's 452 metres aren't as damaging this year as last year.

(also Cunners with less than 3 turnovers a game from about 30d/18cp is outrageous).

Did you buy a subscription?

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Those would be great stats. How annoying that we don't get to see them. Would love to compare what they say to what our impression of a player says. No stat will ever replace the eye test, but then the eye can also lie.

I believe that Champion Data regards these stats as proprietary, and on that basis, they don't publish the detail.

They have a pretty sweet deal, because they are the AFL-sanctioned official provider of gameday stats, but their system of analysing and allocating some less direct stats (e.g. pressure acts, assisted metres gained) is unaccountable because keeping the information proprietary means it can't be reviewed.

Even the directly observable stats, like DE% and effective tackles, don't always appear accurately recorded (there was a great example floating around early last season, where Dusty Martin was credited with six effective tackles and someone put together a video showing each time he was in a 'tackle' situation - only one of the tackles stuck).

 

[LuvtheKangas]

^ In fact, I looked it up and it was recorded as 7 tackles. Looking at the video, maybe the Sloan one was an actual tackle?

 

[KangaRooster]

Williams I think made a kick on the weekend 50m down to the wing to a 2 on 1 (against us) and managed to land it perfectly under some pressure to roll out of bounds without a free kick against us. That doesn't really look amazing on a stat sheet but it was an exceptionally well thought out and well achieved kick.

If we’re thinking of the same play I believe that was Pittard off his wrong foot, and yeah very well measured kick to our advantage even while outnumbered.


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[RobZombie]

Did you buy a subscription?

No, just pay attention here and there. There was a podcast last year called (I think) The Drill that went into some detail on one episode.

 

[Sideburns Ahern]

He’s been suspended for belting Goldy at least twice.

Daniel Pratt was his kryptonite.

 

[giantroo]

The men in the guts: Who goes in, who clears it, best combos - http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-05-08/stuck-in-the-middle-with-you-your-clubs-centrebounce-specialists

North Melbourne
Men in the middle: Todd Goldstein (172 attendances), Ben Cunnington (155), Shaun Higgins (99), Jed Anderson (82), Luke Davies-Uniacke (69), Jack Ziebell (58), Dom Tyson (48), Trent Dumont (23), Paul Ahern (19), Jy Simpkin (19), Aaron Hall (17), Tom Campbell (11), Nick Larkey (7), Cameron Zurhaar (4), Ben Brown (3), Jared Polec (1), Tarryn Thomas (1)

Go-to guys: Goldstein, Cunnington, Ziebell and Anderson, who didn't play until round four, form the Roos' most common centre-square quartet (22 times). Goldstein, Cunnington and Anderson, in particular, are staples in the middle, with the hard-running Higgins another regular among the midfield bulls.

Most successful starting four: Goldstein, Higgins, Cunnington and Davies-Uniacke Clearance record: 7 wins, 3 losses

Ruck and roll: Goldstein and Cunnington have linked up at centre bounces 11 times this year.

Average centre clearance differential: -2.7 Ranked: 18th

Average points from centre bounces differential: -10.1 Ranked: 18th

Analysis: Coach Brad Scott's spoken at length about this being a major part of his team's early season struggles. However, worth noting is the Roos rank 11th and fifth for these two categories, respectively, in the past fortnight against Fremantle and Carlton. Both those sides are ranked in the top four for centre clearance differential, while the Dockers are No.2 for points differential in this scenario. That suggests North might be on the improve in this regard. Watch this space. - Marc McGowan

 

[Sillygit]

For all that we were last year, even with the rule change, i would not have pegged us to being dead last by a distance for this.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

However, worth noting is the Roos rank 11th and fifth for these two categories, respectively, in the past fortnight against Fremantle and Carlton. Both those sides are ranked in the top four for centre clearance differential, while the Dockers are No.2 for points differential in this scenario. That suggests North might be on the improve in this regard. Watch this space. - Marc McGowan

I assume he means Port and not Freo.

Although if the stat does relate to Freo, the conclusion (improving) might not be supported.

 

[Val Keating]

Daniel Pratt was his kryptonite.

I remember him having a go at Pratt for being soft. Something like “it’s a bit embarrassing for a supposedly hard man to go down so easy”.

I’ll give credit to Lewis though, even his hair isn’t going without a fight.

 

[Groin guru]

He played that way too!

Put his head over the ball and went in hard.....every.........single.............time.

Watch him burrow through a pack of scum like a mini buldozer.


.

Hille 6'8", Fletcher 6'6", Lucas 6'4", he bores straight through the lot of them!

I was his player sponsor one year. As honest as they came. I Loved the bloke.

Same. I remember when he and Riccardi were getting big wraps for being the best players off the bench. True definition of an impact player. If only he had a bigger tank. Honest as the day is long - true shinboner like Corey Jones. Both got the most out of themselves.

 

[shintemaster]

I believe that Champion Data regards these stats as proprietary, and on that basis, they don't publish the detail.

They have a pretty sweet deal, because they are the AFL-sanctioned official provider of gameday stats, but their system of analysing and allocating some less direct stats (e.g. pressure acts, assisted metres gained) is unaccountable because keeping the information proprietary means it can't be reviewed.

Even the directly observable stats, like DE% and effective tackles, don't always appear accurately recorded (there was a great example floating around early last season, where Dusty Martin was credited with six effective tackles and someone put together a video showing each time he was in a 'tackle' situation - only one of the tackles stuck).

I don't envy them - there is no way I would have the patience to do it. In reality to quantify DE properly you would almost have to rate even "successful" disposals with a value. ie. A disposal that cuts into the middle of the ground and opens up play completely to allow a goal is a 10. A simple effective kick to your team mate 20m away who then has to walk back over the mark is at 0. There's a hell of a lot of wriggle room in their if each is an effective disposal.

Even with your example a "successful tackle" could be defined by many parameters - including the state of the game. If a player is out the back of play successful could be as simple as slowing them down enough to prevent a run on towards goal and allow support time to come back. Tough game to fairly quantify IMO.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

If we’re thinking of the same play I believe that was Pittard off his wrong foot, and yeah very well measured kick to our advantage even while outnumbered.


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The advantage Marley has is none of his kicks look intentional, so he's never going to be pinged for deliberate.

 

[RobZombie]

I don't envy them - there is no way I would have the patience to do it. In reality to quantify DE properly you would almost have to rate even "successful" disposals with a value. ie. A disposal that cuts into the middle of the ground and opens up play completely to allow a goal is a 10. A simple effective kick to your team mate 20m away who then has to walk back over the mark is at 0. There's a hell of a lot of wriggle room in their if each is an effective disposal.

Even with your example a "successful tackle" could be defined by many parameters - including the state of the game. If a player is out the back of play successful could be as simple as slowing them down enough to prevent a run on towards goal and allow support time to come back. Tough game to fairly quantify IMO.

What you're talking about is "kick rating", a completely separate stat from DE%, which is hidden away by CD for the paying subscribers. The improvement in likelihood of scoring from a 45 kick that opens up the middle vs a 20m chip across half back is also captured in player ratings but again, the individual components of that catch-all score are not released (this is one thing that shits me: I think what Cunners does better than almost everyone is turn contested possession into unpressured possession for a teammate, which is what all the nuffies who go on about "player ratings must be a s**t system because Cunnington" fail to grasp. But I can't prove it because they don't give us the numbers).

As for tackles, yep there is randomness there too. The technical definition is "prevents an effective disposal", so you don't have to wrap them up necessarily. If they get away a disposal to nobody or a turnover, it's a tackle. And I have no idea how they decide who to credit the tackle to when someone's wrapped up by multiple opposition players. The thing you're looking for in your example there is "pressure act", a source of endless entertainment here on both sides of the Hrovat Divide. A pressure act by definition has to change a decision of the ball carrier and force him to do something other than his first option. And yep, holding someone up long enough for help to arrive has value. Can you guess whether or not CD give us the breakdown of the different types of pressure acts in publicly available stats?

 

[SonofSamsquanch]

I assume he means Port and not Freo

Easy mix up. I still can't tell GWS from GCS unless I see that Ablett running around.

 

[muttley45]

What is this "new" stat that according to Gary Lyon is "Footy pr0n", something about 1st contested possession after a clearance or such ?

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

What is this "new" stat that according to Gary Lyon is "Footy pr0n", something about 1st contested possession after a clearance or such ?

Contested possessions away from clearance situations.

 

[shintemaster]

What you're talking about is "kick rating", a completely separate stat from DE%, which is hidden away by CD for the paying subscribers. The improvement in likelihood of scoring from a 45 kick that opens up the middle vs a 20m chip across half back is also captured in player ratings but again, the individual components of that catch-all score are not released (this is one thing that shits me: I think what Cunners does better than almost everyone is turn contested possession into unpressured possession for a teammate, which is what all the nuffies who go on about "player ratings must be a **** system because Cunnington" fail to grasp. But I can't prove it because they don't give us the numbers).

Thanks for the info - I've never really looked into it too much. It's interesting how often they have a stat that is similar to ones I've considered - but also interesting the things they don't measure.

Re: Bold even with this there are nuances. ie. Two tough kicks that from the middle of the ground to a leading forward. Hypothetically if both players were to mark the ball on a 45 degree angle the kick has the same value. What if one of those players is Ben Brown and one of those players is Turner or Wood with the yips. All of a sudden the kick that goes to Brown is measurably a better kick than the one that goes to a lesser chance...

 

[Snake_Baker]

Contested possessions away from clearance situations.

......so in other words...................a contested possession?

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

......so in other words...................a contested possession?

Yes, but in 1v1/2v2 situations in open play.

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

Yes, but in 1v1/2v2 situations in open play.

Does have to be 1v1/2v2? A loose ball get is a contested possession away from a clearance situation.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Does have to be 1v1/2v2? A loose ball get is a contested possession away from a clearance situation.

Doesnt have to be, no.

I was just using a non-clearance example.

Although, picking up a loose ball with none one around IMO isn't exactly 'contested'.