Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]
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Ablett was 33 and had barely played for 4 years.
Alphonse_
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In the unlikely event Kelly ends up in the National Draft, he will end up at West Coast, aka Luke Ball.
No other club will be foolish enough to waste a good pick on a 'rental' like Kelly, if he chooses to quit Geelong.
The draft threat is a real possibility, but I really hope it doesn't come to that. West Coast have the better hand this time around. But it's not an ideal system.
No other club will be foolish enough to waste a good pick on a 'rental' like Kelly, if he chooses to quit Geelong.
The draft threat is a real possibility, but I really hope it doesn't come to that. West Coast have the better hand this time around. But it's not an ideal system.
So what do you think is a fair trade?
Spot on... And tbh, I'm hoping a fairy tale season for him and we signed him back at Geelong but I highly doubt he will stay at Geelong. I think it's only a 10% chance he will stay...
fpm84
Brownlow Medallist
Ablett was 33 and coming off several injury interrupted seasons.
At the time the general BigFooty consensus was that we paid overs and we were desperate.
Fast forward 18 months and now that Gaz is in line for AA and contending for a Brownlow at age 35, apparently we made out like bandits.
Revisionist history at its finest.
sr36
Hall of Famer
Luke Ball went to Collingwood at Pick 30, but he wasn't worth any more than pick 30 to any club other than Collingwood. He was a late 20s guy who was struggling to get a game for his team. He had OP which had stopped him being able to kick the ball 40 metres for the previous 3 years. And he didn't allow any other club to do a medical on him to assess the extent of his OP. He was a great get for a team in their Premiership window who needed an inside mid - Collingwood, but no other team would have valued him significantly above Pick 30.
Nobody has been willing to test the 'just nominate for the draft and you'll slide through' theory. I personally think that is because the industry knows or at least the player managers believe that they won't just slide through. How many kids have been drafted somewhere they didn't want to go? Why is the Kelly situation any different?
At 24 years of age, he'd clearly go number 1 if there wasn't any restrictions or 'go home factor'. The likelihood of him slipping until 14 of wherever WCEs first ends up is really slim in my opinion. particularly as not getting to his club of choice doesn't seem to have had a negative impact on his footy.
Even if he does just turn out to be a rental. Get a star in your team for a year and then trade him for a profit in terms of draft picks. Big win.
Anyone thinking he’ll go to the draft is completely nuts. Just don’t happen.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
And which one of those two things do you think is more likely? The answer is pretty obvious imo.
sr36
Hall of Famer
Ever played poker? People call other's bluffs all the time. I think he'll sign beforehand, but if it comes to a draft threat from the Kelly camp, they'll read their tea leaves, decide he's bloody unlikely to put himself into the draft and set their price accordingly.
I personally think WCE had their chance, but were too tight and not willing to pay what he was worth. He'll be too high a price for them now. They won't be able to get the deal done without trading out a Premiership player, which they'd be mad to do. Only way I see it getting done to WCE is if someone from WCE wants out or one of their talented youngsters gets traded - but with their list profile they'd have to be reluctant to do that. If they can package up every pick they have and manage to swap them with another party for someone good - that'd be their other possibility.
That’s my reading as well. Think Freo are the far more likely destination now if he decides to head back home.
Yes it is obvious.
The Cats will get what they can and will trade.
They wont refuse to trade and get nothing, that would be counter productive and quite stupid.
It would also paint them as being difficult to deal with which could effect future dealings.
Cats posters on here bemoan the lack of toughness the club has shown over the years at the trade tabke. All of a sudden the club becomes inflexible and difficult to deal with?
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So now the AFL draft is like the stock market? Riiiiight!
Im sure list managers who spend thousands of hours looking at who to draft with a first round pick will decide to do that.
sr36
Hall of Famer
The rental bit was in relation to someone else who used the term. I really just meant draft him. Hope he stays. And if he doesn't .Oh well. you won't lose anything at the trade table - unlike the countless 18 year olds who get drafted despite beingreluctant to go to the club that chooses them and then get traded home a couple of years later at a big loss. You should know about a couple of your better players being acquired that way.
If in those thousands of hours, these list managers don't notice Kelly (although they've missed him a few times before) they should start looking for their next job rather than the next star.
The "he'll nominate for the draft" hasn't happened for a decade and it hasn't ever happened for someone with the draft value of Tim Kelly - since the PSD stopped being the threat. The likelihood of Kelly being willing to test it or his manager being able to bluff the Cats seems pretty remote to me. That's my take anyway. Whether contracted or not, Geelong's expectations will need to be met. Just out of curiosity what are some examples of uncontracted high profile guys going for significantly less than contracted high profile guys? Genuine question as uncontracted gets thrown out here a lot as a reason why someone will come cheap - is it supported by what has actually occurred.
2 first rounders to Geelong.
Eagles get geelongs 2020 2nd rounder back.
However I think for afl sake, I hope he signs new deal with Geelong. That’s really what every fan wants good players to do at their own club.
Tarot cards?
sr36
Hall of Famer
If wce were a bottom eight team, that might do it. But when you're a top 8 team, two picks likely to be in the teens for kelly and something else back would be Highway robbery.
Yes, but leverage is a bitch. And Geelong have less of it.
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So which player do you think they will give you?
Yep, you can have masten
sr36
Hall of Famer
Wce don't have leverage. He's not going to the draft and if he did and ither teams weren't willing to pick him, Hawthorn would do a live trade and get in before you.
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