Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

[Snake_Baker]

Port stuffed me up.

Lucky I had a little saver on Browny v Naughton for goals, Higgo 30+ and North at the +8.5

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Port stuffed me up.

Lucky I had a little saver on Browny v Naughton for goals, Higgo 30+ and North at the +8.5

Same, didn't look at the venue before punting. Idiot

 

[Snake_Baker]

Same, didn't look at the venue before punting. Idiot

Two soft outside footy teams playing in a bog. Who do you pick?

Port are ****ing SOFT

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Two soft outside footy teams playing in a bog. Who do you pick?

Port are ****ing SOFT

******* Port

 

[danj]

Interesting on TAB North have come in from $3:50 to $3 over the past 4 days, I would have thought given our respective ladder positions 14th v 4th and the drama with the coach that we would have been $5 easy, will wait until selection and see where it goes from there.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

After a couple of lean weeks I'm going to mix it up with the World Cup.

$100 invested for a $160 return.

$20 on England to beat the Saffers/NZ over the Lankans/Aussies to beat Afganistan/ Swans at the line +32.5 @ $4.01

Swans have a good record down at GMHBA and are back to playing that tight, tagging, congested game.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $89.38
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 11

$20 multi

Kelly (30+) $1.75
Cameron most goals v Sexton $1.40
GWS (head to head)/over 156.5 points total $1.95
De Goey most goals v Walters $1.65

(Price $7.88)

Return: $157.66

I reckon GWS (head to head)/over 156.5 points at $1.95 is the best value I have seen this year. Add it to all your bets.

 

[Quintero]

Have had some luck using my Ladbrokes boosts on First 4's.

Say it's a 15 horse field, take field into field into field into field for 1% and with the boost it goes to 2% with a particular focus on Saturdays (using boosts from early in the week) scratchings are refunded, but I'm yet to find another bet that gives you as much bang for your buck.

Focusing on jackpot races also works very well.

As for this week, sneaky $10 multi on North ($3.80) into Carlton ($2.80) into Steve Smith most runs in WC @150-1

Great thread btw!

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Have had some luck using my Ladbrokes boosts on First 4's.

Say it's a 15 horse field, take field into field into field into field for 1% and with the boost it goes to 2% with a particular focus on Saturdays (using boosts from early in the week) scratchings are refunded, but I'm yet to find another bet that gives you as much bang for your buck.

Focusing on jackpot races also works very well.

As for this week, sneaky $10 multi on North ($3.80) into Carlton ($2.80) into Steve Smith most runs in WC @150-1

Great thread btw!

That First 4's one is an interesting concept. Am I right in saying the bet costs about $328 before scratching refunds? Would need to be a >$17,000 dividend to pay off (after boost to 2%), wouldn't it?

 

[Quintero]

That First 4's one is an interesting concept. Am I right in saying the bet costs about $328 before scratching refunds? Would need to be a >$17,000 dividend to pay off (after boost to 2%), wouldn't it?

Correct LTK, and you don't want it to jackpot as that obviously effects your dividend.

In terms of EV, I'm confident you can't find better.

It breaks down to average roughly $200 a week profit over the last few years.

Note, they have shut down my account a few times, removed or limited the boosts, so I just opened up another one under my mrs's name and make a habit of chucking a few unlikely multis and quaddies to extend the life of the account.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Had another flutter with a multi this week (not included in this thing), after doing nicely with it last week.

Higgins 30+($1.70)
Brown & Lynch to tie on goals ($5.00)
Richmond 1-24 ($3.10)
GWS (head to head)/over 156.5 points total ($1.95 )

Value: $51.38

Slapped a fiver on it.

 

[muttley45]

$10 on Larkey and Zurhaar for 1st goal, both @ 15-1

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Liking Brown to run riot. Also think North are a huge chance in this match. Colonial suits us, it does not suit Richmond.

Don't give me this 'we don't have the talent' nonsense. Whether or not it was Brads's fault, we've been under-performing bigtime.

This match could mark a turning point.

Last week our team's average games played was 110. We are fielding the same team this week.

Richmond's team will average about 98 and that's including the addition of Cotchin.

Ivan Soldo to ruck against Goldstein? The guy has played two AFL games in two seasons for a reason.

Goldstein to SMESH HIM and give our boys first use.

Our weakness has been centre clearance goals. Tonight it will be our strength.

I got a couple multis on, including this:

North 40+
Brown 4+
Larkey AGS
Thomas AGS
Zurhaar AGS

@58

Also wanted to include a midfielder for 30+ but there was no value in the market.

If Cunnington is at the fall of the ball though he could go near 40.

 

[rickety]

Rebels, Eels, North and Storm @ $10.80

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I got a couple multis on, including this:

North 40+
Brown 4+
Larkey AGS
Thomas AGS
Zurhaar AGS

@58

Damn, I felt like a genius with ten minutes to go, just needed Zurhaar to kick one.

Instead the Tigers kicked the last few.

That's punting.

 

[shintemaster]

I missed both the 40+ and the 47-48 margin (for $110 & $505 respectively) :sadface

On the plus side I made my $30 back on the win and I have us live in a multi for $150+ so can't lose this weekend.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $89.38
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 11

$20 multi

Kelly (30+) $1.75
Cameron most goals v Sexton $1.40
GWS (head to head)/over 156.5 points total $1.95
De Goey most goals v Walters $1.65

(Price $7.88)

Return: $157.66

I reckon GWS (head to head)/over 156.5 points at $1.95 is the best value I have seen this year. Add it to all your bets.

Nice punting.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Nice punting.

Cheers mate.

About time I caught a break.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Cheers mate.

About time I caught a break.

No worries, I should be back on the winners list too. The Swans upheld their end for me today and the Kiwis have just rolled Sri Lanka for 136. The Aussies should smash Afghanistan later

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Well, I landed a nice treble, with a few nervous moment in the last game tonight:

NM win $2.85
Sydney line +29.5 $1.90
Melbourne line +9.5 $1.90

Only $10 on it, but at all-up odds of 10.28

 

[Snake_Baker]

GWS @ $1.90 (-3.5)

Won both matches at the Adelaide oval last year.

Great value at that points spread.

 

[jimandphilbadge]

GWS @ $1.90 (-3.5)

Won both matches at the Adelaide oval last year.

Great value at that points spread.

Only at -3.5? Might dust off the account for that value.

 

[Snake_Baker]

It certainly jumped off the screen at me J&P.

I'd also like to appeal to our resident punting community to consider contributing a portion of any winnings to the GR laptop promotion (25%?).

 

[danj]

It certainly jumped off the screen at me J&P.

I'd also like to appeal to our resident punting community to consider contributing a portion of any winnings to the GR laptop promotion (25%?).

No worries 25% of * all is 25% of nothing

 

[danj]

Safer to just chuck in the kids pocket money