DONT TRADE CARLTONS PICK

[TexForPM]

Let Suns develop Rankine and Luko.

They won't get games yet anyway.

We should be aiming to get them in 2-3 years.

I would trade up to 2. Take 1 & 2 to the draft

2019 Draft Rowell, Anderson
2019 Trade Grundy (if he wants to come home. * I think he is just squeezing Collingwood for $$$)

2021 Draft/Trade for Luko/Rankine

 

[TexForPM]

Brouch started the year as a $5000 odds Brownlow winner now into $67 (ahead of his brother at $126

Would have taken a crafty astute judge to have taken an advantage of these odds.

Brouch is probably about 6 games away of being a lock for the AA, where he will sit on the bench.



GreyCrow

Put him on at 101 @$10

payout is $15


EDIT 101 not 1001

 

[GROTTO]

Put him on at 101 @$10

payout is $15


EDIT 101 not 1001

I should add, I never realistically thought at all he would win the Brownlow and he wont.

At $5000 though I did it with the intention of knowing I can cashout with a decent profit.

I will also add, its easy to post winners or likely winners, I will post some of my losers as well.

Dees to make the 8 and Rankine Rising Star.

I only wish I paid attention to the number of surgeries and poor prep by the Dees in the off season.



GreyCrow

 

[Peter Doherty]

Is it though?

The retention rate for players drafted to a different state actually seems quite good, even in the top 5 picks. Here is the list over the last few years.

Stayed
1 - Cam Rayner - 4 year contract
2 - Andrew Brayshaw 4 year contract
5 - Adam Cerra - 4 year contract
2 - Tim Taranto - 4 year contract
3 - Hugh McCluggage - 5 year contract
4 - Ben Ainsworth - 6 year contract
2 - Josh Kelly - 8 year contract
1 - Lachie Whitfield - 8 year contract
1 - Jon Patton - 9 year contract
2 - Stephen Coniglio - 9 year contract
5 - Matt Buntine - 8 year contract
1 - David Swallow - 14 year contract
3 - Sam Day - 9 year contract
4 - Andrew Gaff - 14 year contract
2 - Jack Trengove - delisted after 8 years
5 - Travis Boak - 13 year contract


Left and Went to a Different State
5 - Will Setterfield - actually a GWS academy player
2 - Josh Schache - left after 2 years
4 - Jarrod Pickett - left after 2 years, played 0 games, injured and also wasn't traded to his home state
1 - Tom Boyd - left after 1 year for one of the biggest contracts in history, now retired
5 - Kade Kolodjashnij - left after 5 years, significant injury concerns, home is Tasmania
2 - Jon O'Rourke - left after 2 years, played 9 games and delisted after 21 games
3 - Lachie Plowman - left after 3 years and 20 games
4 - Jimmy Toumpas - traded for a packet of chips
3 - Dom Tyson - left after 2 years but traded for Josh Kelly
4 - Will Hoskin-Elliot - traded after 5 years, last two years played just 13 games
2 - Harley Bennell - traded after 5 years, can't get on the park, off field issues
5 - Jared Polec - traded home after 3 years and 16 games, then traded out of home
4 - Cale Morton - traded after 5 years of spudding it up for a packet of chips
1 - Bryce Gibbs - traded after 11 years
2 - Scott Gumbleton - traded after 7 years for a packet of chips
4 - Matt Leuenberger - free agent after 9 years
4 - Josh Kennedy - traded after 2 years for Chris Judd
3 - Ryan Griffen - traded after 10 years for Tom Boyd
4 - Richard Tambling - traded after 6 years for not much
5 - Lance Franklin - left after 9 years and didn't return home

Left their Home State
1 - Tom Scully
1 - Jack Watts
5 - Jarrad Grant - delisted
3 - Xavier Ellis
1 - Brett Deledio

Left to a Team in the Same State
5 - Jake Stringer

Stayed in their Home State
Many

And that pretty much covers the players drafted in years which are still active.

Obviously lots of player movement. BUT a significant number of the players that left were spuds. Of the 20 top 5 draft picks to leave their club since 2004, I'd say 5 of them are spuds (Pickett, O'Rourke, Toumpas, Morton, Tambling). Another 3 left after significant injury issues (Kolodjashnij, Gumbleton, Setterfield). And then several others left after not really cementing their position (Hoskin-Elliot, Plowman, Leuenberger), and several others simply left to not go home.

So of the players that were significant losses to their clubs, we're left with this group:

2 - Josh Schache - left after 2 years
1 - Tom Boyd - left after 1 year for one of the biggest contracts in history, now retired
3 - Dom Tyson - left after 2 years but traded for Josh Kelly
5 - Jared Polec - traded home after 3 years and 16 games, then traded out of home
1 - Bryce Gibbs - traded after 11 years
4 - Josh Kennedy - traded after 2 years for Chris Judd
3 - Ryan Griffen - traded after 10 years for Tom Boyd
5 - Lance Franklin - left after 9 years and didn't return home

In almost all of these cases, the players leaving delivered the club significant currency. Kennedy traded for Judd, Tyson traded for Kelly, Griffen for Boyd, Boyd for high picks. Three players left after 9 or more years, giving significant service to their draftee club. The stingers being Polec and Schache who were traded for not much, with the jury heavily out on Schache as a player.

The list of players that have stayed is actually quite impressive. Of course there have been question marks on these players leaving, as is the case with most elite players, but most are either committed long term as of today, or have already played for 8+ years.

So in summary, my thoughts on the matter are that in general, good top 5 draftees do not leave their club. If they do leave, they are likely to deliver either significant currency in a trade, or have played a significant portion of time at the original club, or both.

I think we are biased to believe that top-tier draftees often walk out because our drafting retention record is worse than average for a non-Victorian club, when we really should be backing ourselves in to retain them like many other clubs have managed to do.

I also don't see any significant difference in player movement between the last 5 years and say, 10 years ago

The way players and their managers are talking about player movements just over the last year is what I'm talking about.

You've kind of illustrated my point that people are stuck in an old way of thinking with that list going back quite a number of years. This space is moving very quick, I'd like to be ahead of the ball.

 

[arrowman]

Me reading this thread...



But we probably won't get that many choices. Grundy? I favour waiting until he's "free" rather than blow draft pick(s) on him to get him a year early. But the Pies will probably re-sign him. Luko/Rank? I just can't see the Suns letting either of them go within a year of spending those draft picks on them. OK, they (the players) can ask, but if I was the Suns it would be line in the sand time. I'm sure we'll put out the feelers but I doubt we'll have any realistic options. Perhaps the only one is trading down for multiple picks and on that one, I'm firm - no, we use pick 1.

 

[Peter Doherty]

I should add, I never realistically thought at all he would win the Brownlow and he wont.

At $5000 though I did it with the intention of knowing I can cashout with a decent profit.

I will also add, its easy to post winners or likely winners, I will post some of my losers as well.

Dees to make the 8 and Rankine Rising Star.

I only wish I paid attention to the number of surgeries and poor prep by the Dees in the off season.

View attachment 687166

GreyCrow

Good grief!

 

[GROTTO]

Me reading this thread...

View attachment 687201

But we probably won't get that many choices. Grundy? I favour waiting until he's "free" rather than blow draft pick(s) on him to get him a year early. But the Pies will probably re-sign him. Luko/Rank? I just can't see the Suns letting either of them go within a year of spending those draft picks on them. OK, they (the players) can ask, but if I was the Suns it would be line in the sand time. I'm sure we'll put out the feelers but I doubt we'll have any realistic options. Perhaps the only one is trading down for multiple picks and on that one, I'm firm - no, we use pick 1.

FFS this is what will piss me off the most about the Suns, they started to draw a line now when they have SA players while for years their list has been pillaged by Victorian teams.

Thats why we need to offer the Suns a good deal, yes we will pay overs.

Pick 1 for multiple picks? I need to know which ones and the final phantom draft. I would also want two single digit picks or Pick 2/3 if + Pick 10,11,12. After that it really starts developing into hit and miss.

A redone draft in hindsight for any of the last 10 years has always has been such where the order has been completely different. Thats a large sample size right there.

 

[skam85]

You do not concoct strategies to leave your faults in place, and mask them by overspending.

You fix your faults.

If we struggle to out compete port for players, fix that.

I'm pretty okay with not getting Motlop and Watts

 

[skam85]

The difference is they are south australian. Luko and Grundy. If they come they will never leave.

Yeah just like Polec

 

[DJ75]

1 classy player will not solve our problems. It will help our midfield but our spine is ageing quickly.

Suitable defenders are pretty easy to find. They only need to be reasonable to be useful in a team (there aren't many superstar defenders).
Our forward stock includes Himmelberg and Fogarty. Fog is a high draft pick that we drafted to become a key forward. Neither look to be superstars, but they have a future.

The midfield is always where games are won and lost. Get an elite player in there and it changes everything.

 

[Murray2503]

Suitable defenders are pretty easy to find. They only need to be reasonable to be useful in a team (there aren't many superstar defenders).
Our forward stock includes Himmelberg and Fogarty. Fog is a high draft pick that we drafted to become a key forward. Neither look to be superstars, but they have a future.

The midfield is always where games are won and lost. Get an elite player in there and it changes everything.

Danger didnt for us. Normally need 3 elite mids, a half decent ruck, 2 elite forwards and 2 elite backs. Surround them with role players and flankers with a good coach and you have a premiership team.

 

[mistylake]

Where was Dangerfield drafted again?

10 I think. It’s a crap shoot isn’t it. Some of the very best are taken well down the order.

 

[CroCop]

Me reading this thread...

View attachment 687201

But we probably won't get that many choices. Grundy? I favour waiting until he's "free" rather than blow draft pick(s) on him to get him a year early. But the Pies will probably re-sign him. Luko/Rank? I just can't see the Suns letting either of them go within a year of spending those draft picks on them. OK, they (the players) can ask, but if I was the Suns it would be line in the sand time. I'm sure we'll put out the feelers but I doubt we'll have any realistic options. Perhaps the only one is trading down for multiple picks and on that one, I'm firm - no, we use pick 1.

Grundy will not be completely free as he is a restricted free agent so like Geelong had to give the crows something for Danger the Crows will need to give something to the pies for Grundy.
Next year Grundy is a free agent so the Crows can get him for a lot less than pick 1 this year . Bad list management if they go for him this year so ain’t happening just to get him a year earlier. Pick 1 or 2 Crows possibly get from Carlton Should be used on one of the two gun mids Rowell or Anderson or if not trade the pick to Gold Coast for Rankine and another pick.

 

[GROTTO]

Grundy will not be completely free as he is a restricted free agent so like Geelong had to give the crows something for Danger the Crows will need to give something to the pies for Grundy.
Next year Grundy is a free agent so the Crows can get him for a lot less than pick 1 this year . Bad list management if they go for him this year so ain’t happening just to get him a year earlier. Pick 1 or 2 Crows possibly get from Carlton Should be used on one of the two gun mids Rowell or Anderson or if not trade the pick to Gold Coast for Rankine and another pick.

We dont have to offer anything to the Pies to get Grundy in 2020, when he is a RFA.

Its only an issue if they match our offer.

With the class of talent they have, someone of quality will eventually have to leave. They cant fit all under the cap.

 

[Scorpus]

The way players and their managers are talking about player movements just over the last year is what I'm talking about.

You've kind of illustrated my point that people are stuck in an old way of thinking with that list going back quite a number of years. This space is moving very quick, I'd like to be ahead of the ball.

Managers talking about player movement is nothing new.

What if we trade pick 1 for, say, Rankine and he pulls a Polec or Wingard and decides to leave after 6 years anyway?

There are so many possibilities with player movement you can't just assume we will be immune by trading in local talent any more. That's another area that as you say, is moving quickly: players aren't as interested in staying locked to their state if better offers are available elsewhere. Or they don't return home but go to the source of the best offer (eg. Davis, Cameron, McGovern).

There's no magic fix any more. You have to back in your systems to keep players from all angles these days

 

[CroCop]

If he de

still believe we should get grundy with it. to me, take the certainty over the prospect. grundy is an elite footballer, we already know that. play the percentages. what if grundy decides next year to re sign with collingwood? and using pick 1 on a vic metro kid doesnt exactly put me at ease.

If he decides to re sign with Collingwood next year then he ain’t gonna wanna come this year and I’d say no thanks . If we can’t get him cheap then don’t worry about it . All the big vic. Clubs are getting GWS and Gold Coast players cheap and finally we should take our turn on a good deal .

 

[GROTTO]

Managers talking about player movement is nothing new.

What if we trade pick 1 for, say, Rankine and he pulls a Polec or Wingard and decides to leave after 6 years anyway?

There are so many possibilities with player movement you can't just assume we will be immune by trading in local talent any more. That's another area that as you say, is moving quickly: players aren't as interested in staying locked to their state if better offers are available elsewhere. Or they don't return home but go to the source of the best offer (eg. Davis, Cameron, McGovern).

There's no magic fix any more. You have to back in your systems to keep players from all angles these days

I dont think its immunity by getting SA kids. Its more about balance of probabilities.

I think thats why there is so much research that goes into draft kids.

 

[Southerntakeover]

I'm pretty okay with not getting Motlop and Watts

If we wanted them in the first place, that would perhaps be a greater concern.

 

[Murray2503]

10 I think. It’s a crap shoot isn’t it. Some of the very best are taken well down the order.

Jordan Clark pick 15. Great get by Geelong.

 

[Crow till I die]

We dont have to offer anything to the Pies to get Grundy in 2020, when he is a RFA.

Its only an issue if they match our offer.

With the class of talent they have, someone of quality will eventually have to leave. They cant fit all under the cap.

isn't degoey also out of contract at the end of next year?

 

[Grenville]

Mate, that was 20 years ago. Today the draft is so much different and professional run, studied and examined.

Its an irrelevant discussion those 2000s drafts.

Lets look at 2010 to 2015 drafts at least and begin the discussions from there.

Yes it was 20 years ago, and completely relevant. Once you're seen as a successful destination club it draws in players. They built - from the draft - an era of sustained success with multiple premierships. The top up strategy since then that youre talking has worked since because of that initial success and let them extend the window.

 

[GROTTO]

Yes it was 20 years ago, and completely relevant. Once you're seen as a successful destination club it draws in players. They built - from the draft - an era of sustained success with multiple premierships. The top up strategy since then that youre talking has worked since because of that initial success and let them extend the window.

I guess we disagree. Thats fine.

The way the draft period was treated in the early 2000s and the way recruiters have approached the draft is far far more professional today than back then. It really has been chalk and cheese.

In the early 2000s draft picks was handed out like candy. There was no care taken as to their value and importance. In fact no one even considered their true value, until really the last few years when a points system was established and now a raw measure of each Clubs draft pick can be established.

Our own Club is guilty of this, we paid picks 2 and 18 for a 31 year old banged up Carey. There is absolutely no way any Club today would ever entertain a trade of this nature. Thats because of the understanding involved in establishing a Clubs list. This is one story of the attitude back in the early 2000s there is many more.

The amount of work and researched that has gone into players today is extraordinary compared to the 2000s.

I am not sure of what top up strategy you are talking about, as I have never considered or mentioned this.

 

[70lethal]

I guess we disagree. Thats fine.

The way the draft period was treated in the early 2000s and the way recruiters have approached the draft is far far more professional today than back then. It really has been chalk and cheese.

In the early 2000s draft picks was handed out like candy. There was no care taken as to their value and importance. In fact no one even considered their true value, until really the last few years when a points system was established and now a raw measure of each Clubs draft pick can be established.

Our own Club is guilty of this, we paid picks 2 and 18 for a 31 year old banged up Carey. There is absolutely no way any Club today would ever entertain a trade of this nature. Thats because of the understanding involved in establishing a Clubs list. This is one story of the attitude back in the early 2000s there is many more.

The amount of work and researched that has gone into players today is extraordinary compared to the 2000s.

I am not sure of what top up strategy you are talking about, as I have never considered or mentioned this.

A few errors but worth the read.

https://www.ntnews.com.au/sport/how...t/news-story/7efd22424d09b20f47f92968bcb548ce

 

[GROTTO]

A few errors but worth the read.

https://www.ntnews.com.au/sport/how...t/news-story/7efd22424d09b20f47f92968bcb548ce

Thanks. I know those stories. Was there a point you raised or just providing it for my information?

 

[70lethal]

Thanks. I know those stories. Was there a point you raised or just providing it for my information?

Some guys knew what they were doing 15 years ago and valuing picks.
Hawthorn and Richmond were classic examples of the 2 extremes pretty similar to many clubs 15 years latter