Unofficial Preview Changes v St. Kilda (after the bye)

[bungalow_bill]

Just Big O in / Smith out for me

I would keep playing Rayner and agree with Fagen's philosophy of getting games into him. Too much talent not to come good sooner or later. Few more pre seasons. At most he needs a rest which he will get with the bye.

 

[ZoBlitz]

From the day dot.

Better than Travis Baird?

 

[Clugga Berry]

Just Big O in / Smith out for me

I would keep playing Rayner and agree with Fagen's philosophy of getting games into him. Too much talent not to come good sooner or later. Few more pre seasons. At most he needs a rest which he will get with the bye.

What's the point of getting games into Rayner at senior level when he is barely sighted?

He can't develop anything if he barely touches it and doesn't have the fitness to play a more defensive role.
It could actually hurt him - affect his confidence and make him a target for critics.

Better that he gets a run in the NEAFL - firstly so that he can get a few more touches and secondly, so that he can realise where he is at - if he doesn't dominate at NEAFL level then he will need to know that he must lift his workrate/fitness/preparation.

The way I see it - aside from the KP players (Ruckmen/FF/FB/CHF/CHB), in and under midfielders (Neale, Lyons) and Hodge - everyone else should be in a big pool of players who need to show that they can play either down back or in the forward line but can also rotate through the midfield and wings as required. Happy for this group to be roughly split into talls vs smalls (and forward vs back too) but they should essentially be competing for the same positions and picked on form - rather than on 'potential'.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

For me the biggest concern with Rayner is his hands, he drops stone cold sitters and fumbles all the time. In juniors with his strength he could recover and get the ball back. That will never happen at top level. You can’t teach it,you either have a good set of hands or you don’t. It’s a real worry. As for Smith playing in front of O surely that has been sorted once and for all. Can’t believe it ever happened to be honest.

 

[Strato]

Gee D12, that is so so tough on Rayner, playing one of the hardest positions on the ground in his 2nd year......for gods sake he's only 19, if we traded him we would live to regret it big time, 2-3 years he will be a beast

I agree with Dylan12. So you want him in the seniors every week for the next 2-3years. At the moment he would not not be getting a game in any other AFL side. Yes, the boy has shown some potential in the past but this season nothing. If we continue to play players that are not performing then we will still end up where we have been for the last decade. I don't care what position he plays and whatever stats he gets during a game but just watching him he is totally out of form and no confidence. To me the Coaches are not doing any favours by playing him in the seniors at the moment. There are some good kids in the reserves that need a chance. They cannot be any worse than him. I know I am hard but to achieve success you have to be ruthless with all players that don't perform - does not matter who you are. The Club is always bigger than any individual. Just look at how Walsh is performing compared to our No 1 pick.

 

[acuguy]

Rayner is not fit enough to play anywhere else. I think we will see an article next week about how Rayner knocks on Fagan's door and says he needs a run in the 2's. Fagan comes out and says that is the calibre of the bloke. He needs a month of PB's on gps data and possies, then bring him back into the 1's when his confidence is high.

 

[Fagenslions36]

Rayner looks to be of the same ilk of number 1s who don’t live up to expectations. Facts are he needs a drastic off season where he works solely on his fitness. I’d argue that Walsh has played and influenced more games in his first 12 then Rayner has in his 34 thus far . Only thing is that the rest of that draft class Isn’t setting the world on fire . I think In time Bailey and starce will go past him as players. Rayner is on 500 k next year are we paying his 5k per touch he gets ? Fagan had chance to drop him
And set tone weeks ago but missed it as far as I’m concerned it was a poor decision . As for smith should never been anywhere near an afl oval
Again he is the worst . How we could be so wrong is beyond me .

 

[trikster]

Lester could have helped the midfield and clearances, was he dropped or injured?

he was listed as out injured for round 11

 

[3KZ is Football]

We should be clear that apparently there aren’t double standards at the selection table.

I thought these comparisons between Ryan Bastinac and Cam Rayner were interesting:

https://finalsiren.com/PlayerCompare.asp?SeasonID=2019&Compare=Compare&PlayerName1=Cam+Rayner&PlayerName2=Ryan+Bastinac&PlayerName3=&PlayerName4=&SelectedPlayers=2780,1987,

The other thing to be said is Bastinac is quick, in good touch in the ressies, will bob up and kick goals and he is fit, professionally prepared and capable of gut running.

 

[trikster]

The other thing to be said is Bastinac is quick, in good touch in the ressies, will bob up and kick goals and he is prepared and capable of gut running.

Given he isn't "the future" of the club it will be interesting to see if he is ever chosen over young kids. Where we are at the moment is ahead of schedule, we are still developing players and our game style.

 

[M Malice]

I agree with Dylan12. So you want him in the seniors every week for the next 2-3years. At the moment he would not not be getting a game in any other AFL side. Yes, the boy has shown some potential in the past but this season nothing. If we continue to play players that are not performing then we will still end up where we have been for the last decade. I don't care what position he plays and whatever stats he gets during a game but just watching him he is totally out of form and no confidence. To me the Coaches are not doing any favours by playing him in the seniors at the moment. There are some good kids in the reserves that need a chance. They cannot be any worse than him. I know I am hard but to achieve success you have to be ruthless with all players that don't perform - does not matter who you are. The Club is always bigger than any individual. Just look at how Walsh is performing compared to our No 1 pick.

Did you read the OP of this thread Strato? Cam Rayner is listed as one of my suggested outs, so I too agree with Dylan12 in that he needs a stint in the NEAFL.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Given he isn't "the future" of the club it will be interesting to see if he is ever chosen over young kids. Where we are at the moment is ahead of schedule, we are still developing players and our game style.

No, but Bastinac might represent more value in the here and now. Rayner could learn from Bastinac in terms of the work, preparation and fitness required to have a career at the elite level. I am not the only person to comment on the fact that he appeared overweight at the start of the season and his lack of running ability is a big worry. Imagine how great he Rayner would be if he had an extra yard of pace and could run a game out.

 

[jackess]

I thought these comparisons between Ryan Bastinac and Cam Rayner were interesting:

https://finalsiren.com/PlayerCompare.asp?SeasonID=2019&Compare=Compare&PlayerName1=Cam+Rayner&PlayerName2=Ryan+Bastinac&PlayerName3=&PlayerName4=&SelectedPlayers=2780,1987,

The other thing to be said is Bastinac is quick, in good touch in the ressies, will bob up and kick goals and he is fit, professionally prepared and capable of gut running.

Might as well compare him to Matt Eagles or Stef Martin.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Might as well compare him Matt Eagles or Stef Martin.

Morning jackess. You can do that. I’m not saying they are the same type of players, I’m coming from the perspective that we need a running player in our team like Bastinac at the moment more than we need Cam Rayner based on his form this season. The statistical comparison highlights that Bastinac had been making an equal if not superior contribution based on most metrics and he is capable of gut running through an entire game.
Cam Rayner was our lowest ranked player on the AFL Website and only Archie Smith and Allison had less game time. He spent a lot of time in the pine for a bloke that is supposed to be one of our future stars.

I just don’t understand what success criteria Fagan or anyone else who is suggesting he should be played every week are applying.

FINALLY, Rayner is part of the future, but we need him to be fit and firing. He is only young and a period in the Reserves for him to consolidate and improve is not the end of the world. WE ALL WANT HIM TO BE A STAR. I do, Dylan12 does, everyone who is suggesting he be dropped does. If being dropped isn’t the end of the world for Bastinac or Walker or Oscar or Lester or Cutler or Keays, it shouldn’t be for Rayner either.

 

[trikster]

Assuming only Lester and Bailey are available from our injured players (and Bailey to come back through the 2's for a couple of weeks since he has had multiple hammy's).

In : Keays, Wooler, Walker, Big O
Out : Rayner, McCarthy, Robertson or Allison, Smith

O for Smith is a bit of a no-brainer.
Rayner and McCarthy haven't contributed enough over multiple weeks, back to the 2's to find some form.
Walker needs to come in for better structure down back, Roberston/Allison take your pick as last man out.

Hodge Walker Gardner
Witherden Andrews Rich
McCluggage Neale Robinson
Cameron Hipwood Taylor
Keays McStay McInerny
Martin Zorko J Lyons
Answerth Wooler Mathieson Allison/Robertson

 

[Pacman82]

Rayner had a poor day out like a lot of other's, he did almost kick goal of day, but seems to be stagnating. I reckon there's a bigger issue with how our fwd line's set-up & how we deliver the ball inside 50. You rarely see a Lions player make a strong lead, mark & goal anymore. There's a few fundamentals we struggle with IMO.

 

[jackess]

Morning jackess. You can do that. I’m not saying they are the same type of players, I’m coming from the perspective that we need a running player in our team like Bastinac at the moment more than we need Cam Rayner based on his form this season. The statistical comparison highlights that Bastinac had been making an equal if not superior contribution based on most metrics and he is capable of gut running through an entire game.
Cam Rayner was our lowest ranked player on the AFL Website and only Archie Smith and Allison has less game time. He spent a lot of time in the pine for a bloke that is supposed to be one of our future stars.

You’re making a shitload of (probably outdated) assumptions. If you want stats maybe we should bring Dalziel out of retirement.

And if you don’t think that the coaching panel have their own set of metrics then I don’t know where to start.

To change the structure of the team you can’t focus on individuals output. It will change the whole team dynamics. If Bastinac replaces Rayner then we play Basti on the wing and Robbo or Taylor more forward?

 

[3KZ is Football]

You’re making a shitload of (probably outdated) assumptions. If you want stats maybe we should bring Dalziel out of retirement.

And if you don’t think that the coaching panel have their own set of metrics then I don’t know where to start.

To change the structure of the team you can’t focus on individuals output. It will change the whole team dynamics. If Bastinac replaces Rayner then we play Basti on the wing and Robbo or Taylor more forward?

It is going to be very interesting to see how you (and others) spin it if Rayner gets dropped for the St.Kilda game. What yesterday’s game confirmed (for those who didn’t already have this worked out) was that we lack run and it is killing us. We were witches hats at times yesterday as Carlton ran rings around us.

Let’s see what happens jackess and agree to respectfully disagree for now.

 

[Daddy Bolt]

I think Fagan has done the right thing with Rayner right up to the bye in getting games into him. For the first time on the AFL's 'Round so Far' Kane Cornes said his work rate is poor and that a spell in the NEAFL is now required. Archie just looks like he has very few AFL 'smarts', to such an extent that I'm surprised aren't being exposed at NEAFL level. If he was going to show glimpses he should have by now (compare him to Mason Cox).

 

[3KZ is Football]

Rayner had a poor day out like a lot of other's, he did almost kick goal of day, but seems to be stagnating. I reckon there's a bigger issue with how our fwd line's set-up & how we deliver the ball inside 50. You rarely see a Lions player make a strong lead, mark & goal anymore. There's a few fundamentals we struggle with IMO.

This is a great point. Our forward line desperately needs a restructure. Nobody leads and everybody is trying to take pack marks.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Assuming only Lester and Bailey are available from our injured players (and Bailey to come back through the 2's for a couple of weeks since he has had multiple hammy's).

In : Keays, Wooler, Walker, Big O
Out : Rayner, McCarthy, Robertson or Allison, Smith

O for Smith is a bit of a no-brainer.
Rayner and McCarthy haven't contributed enough over multiple weeks, back to the 2's to find some form.
Walker needs to come in for better structure down back, Roberston/Allison take your pick as last man out.

Hodge Walker Gardner
Witherden Andrews Rich
McCluggage Neale Robinson
Cameron Hipwood Taylor
Keays McStay McInerny
Martin Zorko J Lyons
Answerth Wooler Mathieson Allison/Robertson

Yep. I would play Walker at CHB though.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

I thought these comparisons between Ryan Bastinac and Cam Rayner were interesting:

https://finalsiren.com/PlayerCompare.asp?SeasonID=2019&Compare=Compare&PlayerName1=Cam+Rayner&PlayerName2=Ryan+Bastinac&PlayerName3=&PlayerName4=&SelectedPlayers=2780,1987,

The other thing to be said is Bastinac is quick, in good touch in the ressies, will bob up and kick goals and he is fit, professionally prepared and capable of gut running.

According to those stats Rayner plays better when Bastinac is in the team with him!!!!!!

Is this your subtle, overlooked point?

 

[Pacman82]

This is a great point. Our forward line desperately needs a restructure. Nobody leads and everybody is trying to take pack marks.

Probably cuz the ball just gets bombed down there instead of being speared to a player or at least kicked to a spot that gives us an advantage/opportunity.

One symptoms just a product of another I suppose!

 

[jackess]

It is going to be very interesting to see how you (and others) spin it if Rayner gets dropped for the St.Kilda game. What yesterday’s game confirmed (for those who didn’t already have this worked out) was that we lack run and it is killing us. We were witches hats at times yesterday as Carlton ran rings around us.

Let’s see what happens jackess and agree to respectfully disagree for now.

I’ve called for Rayner to be dropped. I’ve called for us to only play 1 rucks. I’ve disagreed with the team selections heaps of times. Probably most weeks. But I also realise that the coaching panel knows a lot more about footy. So I’m happy to assume that their decisions to select a team best suited to execute the gameplan they think is most likely to get the win will much more often than not be better than what I would’ve done. And given our overall opinion it’s clear they’re doing quite a good job.

Also in hindsight I try to not make ridiculous comments like selecting Bastinac over Rayner would’ve made a big difference because I know that it isn’t as simple as that. Other people don’t analyse footy that deeply or critically and us ridiculous stat comparisons or comparing parts of the game to what kids do in the park. That’s just fine.

For clarity if I had been given the coaching role at some point this season and had full power over team selection I probably would’ve dropped Rayner too, probably for Keays. But that might not have been the right call.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

Rayner had a poor day out like a lot of other's, he did almost kick goal of day, but seems to be stagnating. I reckon there's a bigger issue with how our fwd line's set-up & how we deliver the ball inside 50. You rarely see a Lions player make a strong lead, mark & goal anymore. There's a few fundamentals we struggle with IMO.

I have made this comment on another thread but last night I sat with two senior players and one of them said that the forwards often run back to apply defensive pressure, rather than lead up, take a risk of a turnover further up the ground.

There was a situation yesterday (may not been noticeable on the TV) where there was a huge hole in the Carlton zone. Everyone around me was calling for forward to drop into it for an easy kick. They all hung back and we bombed it into the pocket once again.

Hipwood and McStay not natural forwards?????