AFL 2019 - AFL Round 15

[Oraaaaazio]

General advice: if you can't understand why a team are favourites or why a line has moved so much to one team, it's often because sharp money is moving the line that way, against your opinion. I'd advise you not to bet on your gut feel in these scenarios because the big dogs who bet full time are moving these lines, especially on game day and these blokes have put a heap of time & effort into their predictive algorithms and it's going to win far more than the average joe's gut feel long term.

 

[TryAnHit]

General advice: if you can't understand why a team are favourites or why a line has moved so much to one team, it's often because sharp money is moving the line that way, against your opinion. I'd advise you not to bet on your gut feel in these scenarios because the big dogs who bet full time are moving these lines, especially on game day and these blokes have put a heap of time & effort into their predictive algorithms and it's going to win far more than the average joe's gut feel long term.

Sort of true in a way.

There is a site called sportpunter that has been a very big winner for a long time. There picks cost about 1500$ for the year...

They are released every morning at around 10am... and that is why the price moves alot as alot of people tail those plays

 

[GROTTO]

To be fair - normal accuracy from both teams and the Giants cover the line pretty easily - just random variance going with the market move this game.

Irony being that the Giants is one of the most accurate teams in the competition compared to the Bombers who are about mid table.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Sort of true in a way.

There is a site called sportpunter that has been a very big winner for a long time. There picks cost about 1500$ for the year...

They are released every morning at around 10am... and that is why the price moves alot as alot of people tail those plays

Sportpunter were good a few years back, coin flipper nowawdays

 

[Keystone agony]

Essendon (Tick) - tried telling you so
Heppell o92.5 (Tick) - glad a few tailed

 

[langdon19]

Essendon (Tick) - tried telling you so
Heppell o92.5 (Tick) - glad a few tailed

Yep thanks for Hep bet bloke

 

[NonPhixion]

Laird O27.5 @1.83 Sb
Covered the last 4 games and 10/13 for the year

 

[JuniorWatch]

Cats drop 2 forwards (1 tall, 1 HFF) and bring in Bews (Betts) and Fogarty (FP)
I'm guessing Jack Henry gets thrown forward.
2+ $15 b365
3+ $101 b365

 

[HTPunter]

Laird O27.5 @1.83 Sb
Covered the last 4 games and 10/13 for the year

O28.5 $2.45 on bet365.

Normally take the lesser disposal number but think that's enough of a difference for 1 touch for me to take bet365

 

[HTPunter]

O28.5 $2.45 on bet365.

Normally take the lesser disposal number but think that's enough of a difference for 1 touch for me to take bet365

Out to 2.55, what do they know?

 

[JuniorWatch]

Out to 2.55, what do they know?

What's Tom Atkins record like at shutting down HB distributors?

 

[NonPhixion]

O28.5 $2.45 on bet365.

Normally take the lesser disposal number but think that's enough of a difference for 1 touch for me to take bet365

Oh wow... it was 2.10 at the time I posted the bet, something fishy going on

 

[HTPunter]

What's Tom Atkins record like at shutting down HB distributors?

Doesn't seem anything special if you go by top disposals for half backs per game - although that doesn't mean Atkins was on them at all. Houli, Weller, Lloyd have all done pretty well.

 

[HTPunter]

Also any Port or Dogs fans here able to shed some light on if Houston is likely to tag this week and if so who will he tag? Macrae, Bont, Dunkley even??

 

[JuniorWatch]

Oh wow... it was 2.10 at the time I posted the bet, something fishy going on

The others agencies haven't followed suit. Very strange

 

[Remon Tea]

Long time lurker.

Fogarty AGS on Lads is $1.90. Sub $1.50 everywhere else. Should play deep forward so worth a nibble.

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Cats drop 2 forwards (1 tall, 1 HFF) and bring in Bews (Betts) and Fogarty (FP)
I'm guessing Jack Henry gets thrown forward.
2+ $15 b365
3+ $101 b365

Tailed, plus a speculative Harry Taylor 2+ @ 11 and 3+ @ 67 in the event he does it again.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Oh well, dunno what's going on with Laird but you can def use this to your advantage.
Laird o28.5 $2.55 b365
Laird u28.5 $1.80 SB

 

[RooTed]

Leaning Crows TT o65.5 $1.89 B365.
Seems bit low as they've been playing OK lately. I expect Cats will knock em over but can they keep them under 66? Am I missing something?

 

[Ohh Ok]

4u Geelong -5.5 (alt line), BTTS 50+ $1.82 (lads)
3u Duncan 20+, Sloane 20+, Dangerfield AGS $1.90 (SB)
1u Dangerfield over 116.5 fantasy $1.87 (SB)

 

[Ohh Ok]

3u Lycett 100+ SuperCoach $1.70 (TAB)
1.5u Lycett 125+ SuperCoach $4.25 (TAB)
0.5u Lycett 150+ SuperCoach $21 (TAB)

Into $1.35, $3.25, $8

 

[Johanpetro]

Cats drop 2 forwards (1 tall, 1 HFF) and bring in Bews (Betts) and Fogarty (FP)
I'm guessing Jack Henry gets thrown forward.
2+ $15 b365
3+ $101 b365

Lol he’s now $11 for 3+ goals. Did you get on?

 

[JuniorWatch]

Lol he’s now $11 for 3+ goals. Did you get on?

I always get on before posting. Don't want you scabs ruining my odds

 

[Boxhead182]

General advice: if you can't understand why a team are favourites or why a line has moved so much to one team, it's often because sharp money is moving the line that way, against your opinion. I'd advise you not to bet on your gut feel in these scenarios because the big dogs who bet full time are moving these lines, especially on game day and these blokes have put a heap of time & effort into their predictive algorithms and it's going to win far more than the average joe's gut feel long term.

I agree to some extent, but the bookies are smart. If they can change the odds and get you to rethink your play just due to odds then they’ve got you. I watch a lot of American sports and it always happens. 80% of the money are on the Rockies blah blah it’s a trap play etc.

 

[Johanpetro]

Long time lurker.

Fogarty AGS on Lads is $1.90. Sub $1.50 everywhere else. Should play deep forward so worth a nibble.

Fogarty is $4.50 to kick 2+ goals on SB. Around $2.50 elsewhere