Roast Death-Riding 2019: Collingwood, Gold Coast and Fremantle

Where do Collingwood finish in 2019?

  • Premiers

    Votes: 15 7.0%
  • Top 4

    Votes: 46 21.4%
  • 5 - 8

    Votes: 83 38.6%
  • 9 - 13

    Votes: 34 15.8%
  • 14 - 17

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Wooden Spoon: Pick 1, baby!

    Votes: 36 16.7%

  • Total voters
    215
  • Poll closed .

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
26,156
32,470
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
I imagine Stephenson being out for 10 weeks won't do us any harm...
Our Collingwood pick is entirely dependant on how the Pies do come finals.

Now Stephenson being out might effect a couple of results, or possibly their path to the GF. But if the Pies are as good as what most of the media say, we'll need some (not so serious) injuries to key players to effect their finals campaign.
 
Our Collingwood pick is entirely dependant on how the Pies do come finals.

Now Stephenson being out might effect a couple of results, or possibly their path to the GF. But if the Pies are as good as what most of the media say, we'll need some (not so serious) injuries to key players to effect their finals campaign.

Or a developing cover up that brings the game into disrepute and they lose all of their premiership points and banned from choosing in the first round of the draft (so we get 1 and they don't get to use our whatever) ... ;)
 

Dylan12

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 7, 2007
22,114
23,297
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Chelsea, Boston Red Sox
Wish the player we took instead of Stephenson had the standing across the AFL, was as as damaging and was as influential to our side as to what Stephenson clearly is to Collingwood. Such a shame.
 
Dec 1, 2013
9,588
7,835
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Wish the player we took instead of Stephenson had the standing across the AFL, was as as damaging and was as influential to our side as to what Stephenson clearly is to Collingwood. Such a shame.
695794
 
Wish the player we took instead of Stephenson had the standing across the AFL, was as as damaging and was as influential to our side as to what Stephenson clearly is to Collingwood. Such a shame.
695803
 
Top 4 or not top 4 has little bearing on the pick.

It’s purely where the finish come finals.
You're technically correct, but changes the narrative substantially.

5th-8th - one loss and you're out. Play every game.
Lose week 1 - pick 11-12
Lose week 2 - pick 13-14
Lose week 3 - pick 15-16
GF - pick 17-18

Top 4 is much harder to get an early pick. Can't get picks 11-12, and would require two consecutive losses to get picks 13-14. Win EITHER week 1 or week 2 and you are in the final four.

If you assume that every game is a 50/50 (I know, not accurate), then finishing 4th, there's a 25% chance of pick 14, and a 75% chance of pick 15+. Finish 5th, we have a 50% chance of pick 12, 25% chance of pick 13-14, and only a 25% chance of pick 15+.
 
Dream scenario (well, dream scenario with at least a slight chance of occurring). Pies finish 5th. We finish 6th. Pies draw one of Freo, Essendon, or after yesterday, even North. Very unpredictable teams who have shown an ability to turn it on when needed. Pies lose. We win.

I was pretty critical of us trading away our 1st pick, and ending up with a Pies pick instead. That was based on the assumption that we'd give up pick 6-7 and get pick 15-16. How much would I love to eat my hat on that criticism. We make the finals, those trades look decent. We end up surpassing the Pies, those trades are freaking amazing.
 
Oct 13, 2015
8,649
21,115
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Dream scenario (well, dream scenario with at least a slight chance of occurring). Pies finish 5th. We finish 6th. Pies draw one of Freo, Essendon, or after yesterday, even North. Very unpredictable teams who have shown an ability to turn it on when needed. Pies lose. We win.

I was pretty critical of us trading away our 1st pick, and ending up with a Pies pick instead. That was based on the assumption that we'd give up pick 6-7 and get pick 15-16. How much would I love to eat my hat on that criticism. We make the finals, those trades look decent. We end up surpassing the Pies, those trades are freaking amazing.

Regardless of the Pies portion if we make the finals the GC trade is a win for us. Say we finish with pick 12-14 going to GC, we'll get back pick 19/20 from them as I can't see them escaping the bottom 2 to go with pick 18/19 from last year which was the sweetener for Neale. That's a win regardless of where the Pies pick ends up.
 

jjami15

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 16, 2011
5,210
7,093
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Pies to finish third play WC away, lose. A number of their players have mild injuries to hamstrings, quad, calf etc. Lose in the elimination final. Simple
 
May 3, 2005
96,313
106,197
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Scuderia Ferrari, Dallas Cowboys
Pies to finish third play WC away, lose. A number of their players have mild injuries to hamstrings, quad, calf etc. Lose in the elimination final. Simple

Dayne Beams bets his entire estate on a Pies win, bankrupts himself.

The whole thing scares the hell out of Jaiden Stephenson who requests a trade to his beloved Lions to rehabilitate himself under the Allen Christensen program.
 
Dayne Beams bets his entire estate on a Pies win, bankrupts himself.

The whole thing scares the hell out of Jaiden Stephenson who requests a trade to his beloved Lions to rehabilitate himself under the Allen Christensen program.

sponsored by Neds
 

jackess

Cancelled
30k Posts 10k Posts
Aug 10, 2005
46,545
42,486
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Gold Coast now last. Carlton doing us a big favour today.
 
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