I called it this afternoon and I bet $40 instead and turned it into $138 I knew we would lose itI hope I am wrong but we will lose tonight as a structured loss AND I"M GOING TO BET ON IT FOR INSURANCE REASONS
(Feel Free to Roast Me) Read below if you want to find my reasons.
I hate to be saying this but Collingwood have more to lose than we do and Simpson doesn't like being the favourite of the comp both in the past and in the present when we bombed in 2015 and won in 2018.
Terry Wallace even thinks we are the favs.
TLDR: Wallace has named Westcoast vs Richmond for the GF Quinella with Westcoast the PremiersTerry Wallace names his two Grand Finalists as things stand
"I think they can get themselves a top two position."www.sen.com.au
We are now widely being talked about as the media's Flag Fav's in Victoria after last weeks game. The betting circles took us from $6.5 last week for the premiership to $3.7 during the week now $4.
To put that into context, last year I put a bet on WC to win the flag after Richmond's shock loss to Collingwood in the prelims.
That bet was a huge punt with a stake of $620 @$4.5 and WC had already made it to the Prelims. They just needed to get thru Melb (in Perth) and Collingwood (MCG) at the time. The punt came off which put almost $2800 back into the account and paid for flights to London, Berlin and Prague which I booked and left within 5 days of the win.
We are now a shorter odds to win the Flag than we were < a week before the Grand Final last year. From a punting perspective that is an outrageous proposition.
So I'm going to say that we will lose against Collingwood and keep our powder dry for the finals. It won't be a transparent loss (or Simpson will cop it) but it will be something like a close 3 quarters and the fourth will be where we come undone with the players losing control due to tiredness and possibly overtraining or playing out of position.
Has anyone seen any videos from training this week? Is it suspicious that our two outs are from training injuries and we have no video of training on Snapchat or twitter which could mean anything but I suspect a brutal training sess or two.
We know Mick Malthouse used to overtrain the players to force a controlled loss and he coached us to two GF wins.
I hope I am wrong but with betting at over $3 (3.4-3.75) for Collingwood to win I'm putting an insurance bet on the Pies to pay for my 10 pints of beer I will need to cry myself to sleep after losing to Collingwood. If WC win my $30 punt to the bookmakers will be a word of warning to me overthinking a game we should win.
How many of those do we need exactly? This is the 5th. Not good enough. Simple.
Enjoy your free beers bud. Good chance to bag the tipping round on the back of this myself...
Settle pettle
