Liefs Wheel of Fortune

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FallingLiefs

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Veteran 10k Posts
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Alright, this looks like the TAB's first attempt at a low takeout system. so let's have a closer look.

i'm not sure how this will go, apparently the markets are set at 107% and no records apart from winning figure is recorded so you can only mark against 1 out of the 3 results. Anyhow i have built something quickly that should resemble the outcomes and probabilities.

The general plan is calculate expected payout (SP represented in odds/even/split) pre-race. either race morning (surely cant win this way) or more usefully 30-5 mins before the race then if overlay declare that as a bet pre-race and cop the price whatever it is. i will update and if i don't i'll take the race morning suggested bets.

a quick overlook at the synthetic track today (yesterday now) at ballarat with what it should have paid vs what it did

Rated/Paid

1.60/1.60
1.71/1.50
1.65/1.40
1.78/1.70
6.47/5.00
3.92/5.00
4.60/4.40

average deviation from expected price was 0.6% so quinella merged pool market looks fairly accurate and i should just have to beat the SP at better than 107% plus any lagg in the system.


seems enough for a trial period.
 
DISCLAIMER: there may be a few gremlins in the program early days but should iron them out as 12:30 having a few cans not ideal for error free work

Will not be betting this due to pool sizes unless I start using $1 units just to keep track. Will all be pretend money hence results may not be able to be matched with high volume.
 
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off to a flyer with 3 of 4 overlays in the race running first 3 big bet as rated $1.36 and higher than expected dividend thanks to a big roughie winning at $4.30. all 4 happened to be evens so a big bet.

on a worse note the best bet of the day run second so am left in the cold despite a good result here.

first bet goes

80 @ 4.30 = + $344 return.

leaving bank at guaranteed profit for the day

$1166.00 with $98 in expected pending bets for the day.

Next up #8 looks reasonable bet along with with #4 at a shade of value making evens a mid range bet. Pike looks a solid lay dragging down the value just a shade.
 
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disappointing race 3 with the only horse rated under 20:1 @ 5:1 splits the even numbered horses which run 1,3,4,5.

the dividend has paid a whopping $0.00 which i assume means carryover in what should have paid around $1.60

next bet race 5 mainly thanks to a good map for megadon who i have favourite after cardiac arythmia last start in an open race. track may be a touch leader bias with the rail out 18 and persistent rain in recent weeks.
 
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FallingLiefs said:
off to a flyer with 3 of 4 overlays in the race running first 3 big bet as rated $1.36 and higher than expected dividend thanks to a big roughie winning at $4.30. all 4 happened to be evens so a big bet.
Click to expand...

How can this impact the dividend at all when it is an odds/evens bet?

If there is a $1.10 fave that is also evens but the 40/1 evens shot wins it doesn't help does it? Or am i misunderstanding how the pool works?
 
iluvparis said:
How can this impact the dividend at all when it is an odds/evens bet?

If there is a $1.10 fave that is also evens but the 40/1 evens shot wins it doesn't help does it? Or am i misunderstanding how the pool works?
Click to expand...

the pool is a mystery to me,

it's combined with quinella pool so in theory i feel this should affect it. on the few races i saw yesterday the tote paid overs with large priced winners/second horse.
 
FallingLiefs said:
the pool is a mystery to me,

it's combined with quinella pool so in theory i feel this should affect it. on the few races i saw yesterday the tote paid overs with large priced winners/second horse.
Click to expand...

Shouldn't it be irrelevant though as the entire quinella pool is getting paid out no matter what? Unless it jackpots which I don't think I've EVER seen. Or are the pools combined and then all winning units paid out. So if Winx is saddlecloth #8 and runs third but the places are 6-2-8 the quinella pays absolutely Chernobyl level unders because there will be a massive EVENS odds/evens payout coming out of the quinella pool?

The whole thing seems very opaque and potentially awful for quinella punters.
 
iluvparis said:
Shouldn't it be irrelevant though as the entire quinella pool is getting paid out no matter what? Unless it jackpots which I don't think I've EVER seen. Or are the pools combined and then all winning units paid out. So if Winx is saddlecloth #8 and runs third but the places are 6-2-8 the quinella pays absolutely Chernobyl level unders because there will be a massive EVENS odds/evens payout coming out of the quinella pool?

The whole thing seems very opaque and potentially awful for quinella punters.
Click to expand...

like i said it's a mystery to me, even more confusing this has 7% takeout and qunella of top of my head around 20%. i imagine odds/evens being like taking a flexi quinella on fixed set of numbers at a higher return but thats where it gets messy.

like i said on basis of about 15 races i've looked at the qualitative results suggests this can pay overs when roughies come in but may be a anomaly.
 

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Day 2 Northam: likely heavy 10/abandoned at some point looking at the radar

702889

out: $121

will try update before race 2.

Bank $1166
 
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Day 4, but with 2 days abandoned it's still day 2.

704037

out: $136, wont be able to update after scratching so hopefully no big ones. bank $1166

bonus tips:

Laverrod and Beat the Devil good odds against a very short pike horse in each of their races.
 
so big bet r2 yesterday paid $0.00 so will classify this as a refund,

only payout race 7 $5.50 $55.00

loss $30

Bank $1136

Day 5, KALG, only computer form today.

704921

Out: $55.00

best of the day: Paradise Square
 
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Wins:

R3 $25 @ 1.70 +42.50
R8 $16 @ 1.60 +25.60
R9 $11 @ 1.10 +12.10

+80.20

LOSS $33.8

BANK $1047.2

CARN R1-R4 Will try update pre-start

707653
 
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WINS:

R5 $19 @ 1.50
R6 $16 @ 2.00

RETURN: $60.50
PROFIT: $21.50 ($66.30)

BANK: $1113.50 $1122.60 made an error in day 2.

708148

OUT: $87.00
 
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back from a few days in the east. today PINJ

714991

OUT: $58.00

big loss from saturday to be updated.

best of the day: r5 Olivia Knows. looking forward to Tramontane have marked it $1.22 off it's trial but not keen to dive into $1.40.
 
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