Prediction Our Chances in the 2019 finals

[dogwatch]

We always needed at least 4 more wins, now we just have less wriggle room.

Galling as it was, it's better that the game we lose is to a non-finals chance. It's the "8-point games" we need to win.

 

[Werewolf]

Yeah none now

Ross is our biggest hoodoo coach too, only beaten him once since 2008 at both Stk/Freo and we won the flag that year

So 8-10 after next week

It's not as bad as it seems. Incredibly, our last four games against Fremantle have been in Perth. The one before at Docklands we smashed them (R1, 2016) and only narrowly lost the 2015 encounter when Fremantle were flying. We didn't even play that badly last time, just converted poorly.

 

[go you pups]

It's not as bad as it seems. Incredibly, our last four games against Fremantle have been in Perth. The one before at Docklands we smashed them (R1, 2016) and only narrowly lost the 2015 encounter when Fremantle were flying. We didn't even play that badly last time, just converted poorly.

We've finished ahead of them every season though since then and I expect to finish ahead of them again this year

They're a fair dinkum bogey side

 

[BIG_BONTS]

As much as I’m disappointed we’re not making finals our list is going to have more natural improvement than other clubs. Our retirements (Boyd, Pickens) have no impact to the side we fielded the last three weeks

Next year we’re 100% in the 8

 

[Werewolf]

We've finished ahead of them every season though since then and I expect to finish ahead of them again this year

They're a fair dinkum bogey side

It's more accurate to say that WA is our bogey state. We've won there once this decade - thankfully, the only game that really mattered!

Fremantle's record at Docklands isn't much better. If our midfield gets on top and our forwards kick straight, we should beat them.

 

[BEaston]

Galling as it was, it's better that the game we lose is to a non-finals chance. It's the "8-point games" we need to win.

haha that's a glass half full if I've ever seen one

 

[dogwatch]

haha that's a glass half full if I've ever seen one

If I've got half a glass of red and half a glass of air I always make sure I drink the red bit.

 

[BRWB]

Did the ladder predictor. Just have to win every game bar one vs GWS or Bris.

 

[AFDogs]

After losing to carlton, gold coast and saints, we don't deserve to play finals..

This.

When I think of this it just sours my mood completely. How could we drop all 3 of these games? Gold Coast especially. We should be firmly entrenched in the 8. No excuses.

 

[Mofra]

If I've got half a glass of red and half a glass of air I always make sure I drink the red bit.

A T Shirt-worthy quote

 

[Virgin Dog]

Am I the only one who is fine with missing finals this year? We are fielding the second youngest team in the AFL right now, and have beaten Geelong, Brisbane, Richmond, Sydney, Hawthorn, Melbourne and Port (Sydney and Melbourne not big deals in hindsight) while coming very close to Collingwood twice.

Yes, it sucks dropping silly games to the likes of Carlton, Gold Coast and Saints, along with having only just held on against Carlton the second time, but there is enormous upside in this list. We have guys like Naughton, Smith, Daniel, English, Bontempelli, Richards and Schache all playing major roles in the side, while lacking any actual veterans on our playing list since Picken left and Morris has been out all year. We have the youngest spine in the league, are in a really good draft position this year, and have taken down some huge scalps while still being in the middle of a rebuild.

I think there's a lot to improve on, but also a lot more to be positive about. Add in some mature guys like Hartley or Corr down back, Hill or Smith on a Wing, and Tippa or Martin up forward, and we should be far less likely to drop these silly games.

We finished last year with 8 wins and a dire 77.3%. Right now, with 5 games to go, we sit on 8 wins and 93.4%. We're averaging around a 2 goal improvement in our scoring, while conceding less than last year. We have multiple winnable games still to come this year, and could end up on 10 wins for the season, which is an improvement on last year, and not far outside finals. Again, while running with the second youngest 22 on average. Melbourne, Carlton, North and Sydney all sit below us while fielding significantly older sides most weeks (except Melbourne who are also relatively young).

Just imagine the difference we might see from an injection of experience into our spine, or adding some forward class. I, for one, am fairly optimistic for 2020 at this stage

 

[Braybrook Son]

Did the ladder predictor. Just have to win every game bar one vs GWS or Bris.

No way we get in with 12 wins and s**t percentage

 

[The City Boyz]

No way we get in with 12 wins and s**t percentage

We actually do if you consider how s**t Adelaide's form is atm

 

[BRWB]

We actually do if you consider how s**t Adelaide's form is atm

Yep have is eating Adelaide for eighth if we win everything bar one of Bris/GWS.

ABOUT AS LIKELY AS WINNING FOUR AWAY FINALS IN A ROW...

 

[Next Waiting]

Yes, it sucks dropping silly games to the likes of Carlton, Gold Coast and Saints,

I think there's a lot to improve on, but also a lot more to be positive about. Add in some mature guys like Hartley or Corr down back, Hill or Smith on a Wing, and Tippa or Martin up forward, and we should be far less likely to drop these silly games.

I don't accept that the 3 examples you give would be the difference between winning and losing, especially in 2 of those games.

Possibly in the GC game where poor conversion was arguably the difference.
But in the Carlton and Saints games there was a teamwide malaise that gablett could not have turned. Carlton was diabolically bad and the first qtr agin the saints just as bad. Hard to make the case we had a winner anywhere on the ground in both cases.

I'll be mildly annoyed (but not distraught) if we dont mnake finals because, despite our youth and inconsistencies, the capability to beat any team convincingly on our day exists so we could have an impact in at least one final and be better for the experience.

I agree though that we'll be better next year tbough i dont think we need to bring anything other than one quality kpp to achieve that.

 

[Mattdougie]

We lost to Carlton Norf suns saints

We do not deserve to make finals

 

[Virgin Dog]

I don't accept that the 3 examples you give would be the difference between winning and losing, especially in 2 of those games.

Possibly in the GC game where poor conversion was arguably the difference.
But in the Carlton and Saints games there was a teamwide malaise that gablett could not have turned. Carlton was diabolically bad and the first qtr agin the saints just as bad. Hard to make the case we had a winner anywhere on the ground in both cases.

I'll be mildly annoyed (but not distraught) if we dont mnake finals because, despite our youth and inconsistencies, the capability to beat any team convincingly on our day exists so we could have an impact in at least one final and be better for the experience.

I agree though that we'll be better next year tbough i dont think we need to bring anything other than one quality kpp to achieve that.

I think experienced, mature players can absolutely make a difference to attitude and help stop getting overrun

 

[Next Waiting]

I think experienced, mature players can absolutely make a difference to attitude and help stop getting overrun

The answer in carlton and saints games is unknowable of course, and ordinarily Id be inclined to agree. However, I also think that tbere are games in a season where you're just off across the team and no one is saving you, not even Bont. The better you get as a team, the less of those you have, but you still have them.

 

[josh the gent]

We lost to Carlton Norf suns saints

We do not deserve to make finals

But we also beat Geelong, Brisbane, and Richmond.

We seem to perform much better against better teams - no-one would relish playing us if we did make it!!!

 

[Mattdougie]

But we also beat Geelong, Brisbane, and Richmond.

We seem to perform much better against better teams - no-one would relish playing us if we did make it!!!

Unfortunately that becomes irrelevant when you lose to 4 really poor teams. One is a bump, two a wobble but 4 is a pattern

We will finish mid table which is where our year belongs.

For every good win we have had a bad loss so they cancel each other out

 

[Next Waiting]

Increasing with every Rnd 19 Carlton and Brisbane goal.

 

[StringyDog]

Carlton doing Adelaide and Bris doing Hawks puts fate back in our hands at least. 12 would definately be enough regardless of percentage as Adelaide and port will both end up on 10 or 11 wins now

 

[DognBones]

As much as I’m disappointed we’re not making finals our list is going to have more natural improvement than other clubs. Our retirements (Boyd, Pickens) have no impact to the side we fielded the last three weeks

Next year we’re 100% in the 8

Wish I had your optimism but if we don't find the right players to fill gaping holes then I'm 100% certain we'll get more of the same.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Hopefully Port get hammered tonight.

 

[TommyD13]

In our own hands now. Win out and we’re in


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