Club Focus Hawthorn 2020 - Hartigan, Phillips, Grainger-Barras, Mitchell, Downie, Brockman

[Lore]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order (updated weekly) see the thread here.

 

[WWSD]

Hawthorn won’t have the oldest list next year. In fact GWS, Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, North Melbourne and Geelong will all have an older average age.

Players who will retire, be traded out or delisted

Roughead 32
Birchall 31
Smith 30
Ceglar 28
Schoenmakers 28
Brand 25
Puopolo 31
Mirra 28
Mohr 31

Henderson, Frawley and Burgoyne are all certain to get new contract extensions. McEvoy is already signed until 2020.

 

[stfan]

To be fair you said they would have the oldest list. Not the oldest best 22.

Not sure I did.

But whether you look at 22, or the whole list, all 3 of those teams will be in contention for "oldest" team in 2020 depending which one does the most pruning.

 

[GerryLewis]

Mabior Chol vs Mitch Lewis is probably a more appropriate comparison. Not much between them in almost every key statistic:

View attachment 714646
View attachment 714647

Chol spends more time in the ruck and Lewis spends more time up forward/more on the ground in general, so the data is relatively favoured towards those positions. Interesting comparison though. I couldn’t split them on paper. Both tracking nicely.

Chol is a ripper. You just keep rolling them out down there. As you say it's not a like for like comparison but they are both tracking nicely.

 

[Loken]

@Loken & @Rad Roo you both spoke way to early, clearly the Hawks supporters with a brain (even general opposition supporters that aren't biased) could see we weren't just gonna keep skiing down the hill this season... with the list that we do have.

I did not say you were "just gonna keep skiing down the hill this season" so maybe you could use that brain you claim to have and make your argument on something i actually did say. Hawthorns real issues are in the future.

Just to give you a general overview of my thoughts in a quick sentence "The bottom line is they certainly won't be a legitimate challenger for a very long time"

 

[Obeanie1]

So anything change with Impy's injury?

Smith not being traded?

B Hill a option?

 

[cryptor]

"The bottom line is they certainly won't be a legitimate challenger for a very long time"

Define what constitutes as being "a legitimate challenger" and how long "a very long time" is.

Just so there's no misunderstanding about what you're actually claiming.

 

[Loken]

Define what constitutes as being "a legitimate challenger" and how long "a very long time" is.

Just so there's no misunderstanding about what you're actually claiming.

None of us know what is going to happen in the future with things like trades, injuries etc etc so exact time frames are impossible to predict, hence why my statement is non specific. Pretty sure most people have an idea of what a legitimate challenger is.

I've already posted my thoughts in this thread and others how about you post yours.

 

[Roughies Boys]

I did not say you were "just gonna keep skiing down the hill this season" so maybe you could use that brain you claim to have and make your argument on something i actually did say. Hawthorns real issues are in the future.

Just to give you a general overview of my thoughts in a quick sentence "The bottom line is they certainly won't be a legitimate challenger for a very long time"

That's where I disagree with you. a couple of off-seasons can make us legitimate contenders.

 

[cryptor]

None of us know what is going to happen in the future with things like trades, injuries etc etc so exact time frames are impossible to predict, hence why my statement is non specific. Pretty sure most people have an idea of what a legitimate challenger is.

I've already posted my thoughts in this thread and others how about you post yours.

You're dodging.

You don't need to be able to predict the future to tell me how you define the terms you used in the past.

What qualifies a club as a "legitimate contender" to you? Is that a certain amount of wins in a season? Is it finishing top 4? Is it winning a certain amount of finals? Is it making a prelim? Who are those legit contenders this season?

You can also quite easily say what you considered "a very long time" to be. Is it within 5 years? 10 years? 30?

If you don't even know what you meant by what you just said a few hours ago then you're clearly just trying to be inflammatory by throwing out nothing statements that can never be measured against. You'd think with the amount of time you spend posting about Hawthorn that you'd have a pretty clear idea about what you meant by now.

And if you really want to know my thoughts then I'll be happy to share my view in relation to yours. But first I'll need to know what your view is in more certain terms.

 

[Loken]

You're dodging.

Nope.

My post was a generic cut and paste from a lengthy post i made earlier in the thread.

I've given my thoughts, while you haven't given yours, so who's dodging?

 

[Chubberson]

Loken is crack up, just a troll don't play along. Got it wrong in the Geel vs Hawks preview thread too.

I'd be going after Alex keath and Riley Bonner or Zak Jones, Bonner to cover Impey. Not too expensive and Bonner certainly hasn't reached his potential, could be a very handy footballer. Perhaps turn Isaac Smith into Bonner. Finn McGuinness looks like he will be a ripper, Mitchell will be back and I'd say we'll land a decent mid or a line breaking half back/mid like Zak Jones. We won't pay overs, that is what the Bombers to, along with PED's of course. I think we will manage 4th to 8th next season providing we don't butcher the Trade/FA period.

 

[cryptor]

Nope.

My post was a generic cut and paste from a lengthy post i made earlier in the thread.

I've given my thoughts, while you haven't given yours, so who's dodging?

I have gone and read that post just now. At no point did you cover what you consider a "legitimate contender" to actually be, nor did you specify how long it would take them to become one again.

You've cowardly kept what you've said as vague as possible because you're more interested in trolling than actually having a genuine discussion.

If you really want my thoughts then here they are... I think Hawthorn's list is still at least another 2-3 years away from being ready to contend premierships again from a strong top 4 position, but the comp is quite even recently so we may get lucky with the right fixture and run with injury. I think we've nailed a lot of late draft picks in recent years that has helped accelerate the refreshing of the list. I think our list management strategy right now is incredibly sound and we're taking a holistic approach to it by aggressively seeking the talent required through free agency, trades, and trying to find value picks in the middle to late rounds of the draft. We do have some old players on our list but most of them haven't been among our top 15, the ones who are going to be finishing up this year aren't playing key roles, and when they do retire they can be replaced with role players from one of the recruitment channels. There's been a few hiccups along the way with injuries to Mitchell and now Impey, but overall I'm very comfortable with the direction our list is taking.

Now hopefully you can dig deep and find some heart.

 

[Sixpence]

Then what does that say when the hawks are bottom 8

You might want to check the ladder again.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawthorn won’t have the oldest list next year. In fact GWS, Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, North Melbourne and Geelong will all have an older average age.

Players who will retire, be traded out or delisted

Roughead 32
Birchall 31
Smith 30
Ceglar 28
Schoenmakers 28
Brand 25
Puopolo 31
Mirra 28
Mohr 31

Henderson, Frawley and Burgoyne are all certain to get new contract extensions. McEvoy is already signed until 2020.

I wouldn’t be so sure on all those delistings/retirements....that’s tonne of depth and experience.

We won’t cut our list that deeply.

 

[bumsonseats]

I was a little concerned with the state of our list at the start of the year, in particular our midfield depth once Mitchell went down.

However, this year we have seen the emergence of a couple of kids, still early in their development, but very encouraging signs.

The loss of Mitchell has given Worpel a great opportunity to fast track his development.....you have to remember he has only played 28 games.

If we can jag Cogniglio (a big if at this stage) then our midfield looks decisively improved when Mitchell also comes back into the side. A midfield brigade of Mitchell, O’Meara, Cogs, Worpel and Shiels looks a hell of a lot better than what we have at our disposal this year.

And you can be assured that our first round picks are on the table so who knows what might or might not come of that.

Forward line has potential with Mitch Lewis developing. Throw in Gunston, Breust, Wingard and the emergence of O’Brien (who would have thought) and even the development of Nash at 198cm and very quick across the ground. There is reason for optimism.
I would suggest our forward line issues this year are moreso related to the weakness of our midfield and the system of delivering the ball into our forward line.

Our outside runners are ok, but definitely a growth opportunity.

Our back flanks are solid with Hardwick, Sicily, Scrimshaw, Impey (when he returns). But our KPD are a concern. Frawley is doing a job at the moment but give him another 2 or 3 and we will need a replacement in that area. We also need a 2nd KPD which I think is the 2nd priority for our list at present behind A grade midfield talent.

The biggest advantage we have is off the field. The best coach in the competition by the length of the Flemington straight......which is also a significant drawcard to potential recruits.
Sam Mitchell as our midfield coach - got a lot of credit for what he did at WC and helped take them to a flag. Surely the development of Worps benefits significantly having Sam Mitchell mentoring him.
And our Football manager - Graham Wright - is one of the best in the business as a recruiting manager.

I am not afraid to use the word rebuild. You can’t stay at the top forever, but the Clarko rebuild model is based on maintaining a winning culture, not tanking for drat picks, and identifying value and targeting specific types of players to play a role ie Impey.


I back the proven record of Clarko over anyone in the competition. So to all of those that celebrate the so-called demise of our great club, be afraid. Be very afraid. Take your chance for success now, because you know we are coming. It might be a year or 2 away, but we ain’t sitting on our hands looking for draft picks.

In Clarko we Love

 

[Hawker55]

The thing that a lot of clubs (and AFL journos) haven't worked out yet is that any draft pick is a gamble, whether it's pick 1 or pick 50. The only issue is how much of a gamble it is varies. It's a bit of a moneyball situation really - so many AFL people are wedded to the idea that a draft pick has value of itself without realising that the value changes according to the draft year, the club, the player and all sorts of factors. So many of these discussions talk about 'first round' picks without the disclaimer that the Hawks first round pick of say 8-12 is a very different proposition than Gold Coast at number 1.

If you have a clear idea of the game style you want to play and what you need for it then you're nearly always better off trading to get a young player, with exposed form, who can fill anidentified need. It's the difference between building a team and game style and fitting players into it and getting players and only then working out how you want to play.

The former allows you the freedom to plan over multiple years and look at each draft as an opportunity to fix a need whereas the latter pretty much puts you at the mercy of the draft each year.

 

[Lore]

Roughead retiring

Rough calls time on decorated career

After 15 years in the brown and gold, Jarryd Roughead will call time on his illustrious AFL career at the end of the 2019 season.

www.hawthornfc.com.au

 

[Lore]

O'Brien re-signed

O'Brien signs

On the back of a career-best year, Tim O'Brien has put pen to paper on a new deal.

www.hawthornfc.com.au

 

[Lore]

AFL website has an article about players who are still out-of-contract as of this morning. Links are to player threads if we have one for 2019.

Out of contract: Grant Birchall, Kaiden Brand, Shaun Burgoyne, Jon Ceglar, James Frawley, Will Golds, Damon Greaves, Ollie Hanrahan, Ricky Henderson, Harry Jones, Teia Miles, Darren Minchington, David Mirra, Tim Mohr, Marc Pittonet, Paul Puopolo, Ned Reeves, Jackson Ross, Ryan Schoenmakers

"Irishman Conor Glass quietly added another season to his contract and will be a Hawk in 2020, while Frawley is close to locking in another one-year deal. Birchall, Burgoyne and Puopolo are among those yet to publicly confirm their futures, as well as in-form winger Henderson. Gold Coast is understood to be dangling a longer-term offer to Burgoyne. It's unlikely both Ceglar and Pittonet will be at Waverley Park next year, but they have options elsewhere. Mohr is likely to retire and Mirra is understood to be heading down the same path, while 2015 premiership player Schoenmakers' injury-riddled year may cost him. Miles could seek opportunity at a different club, but Greaves is closing on a new one-year deal. Hanrahan, Jones, Ross and Reeves will all get new contracts."

Re-sign or let go? Your club's out-of-contract players

R23 not only marks the end of the season for 10 clubs, but it’s also the last chance for many footballers to press their claims for a new contract

www.afl.com.au

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Out of contract: Grant Birchall, Kaiden Brand, Shaun Burgoyne, Jon Ceglar, James Frawley, Will Golds, Damon Greaves, Ollie Hanrahan, Ricky Henderson, Harry Jones, Teia Miles, Darren Minchington, David Mirra, Tim Mohr, Marc Pittonet, Paul Puopolo, Ned Reeves, Jackson Ross, Ryan Schoenmakers

Puopolo
Brand
Miles
Schoenmakers
Mohr
Mirra

All bound to be delisted/retired.


Birchall and Burgoyne could head to the Suns just yet.

 

[jackenny]

Puopolo should probably be good enough for one more year. He's still Hawthorn's best pressure forward, IMO.

 

[WWSD]

Puopolo should probably be good enough for one more year. He's still Hawthorn's best pressure forward, IMO.

Not anymore. Sadly he’s now cooked. He can’t chase down opposition half backs. Likely to retire.

 

[stfan]

Not a good week for the Hawks. No Cogs now, and a strong chance that Burgoyne and Ceglar go as FA's.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Not a good week for the Hawks. No Cogs now, and a strong chance that Burgoyne and Ceglar go as FA's.

If they both go, then it will be because we've allowed them to.....There's little point in standing in the way of better long-term offers.

 

[WWSD]

Not a good week for the Hawks. No Cogs now, and a strong chance that Burgoyne and Ceglar go as FA's.

Ceglar is a restricted free agent. Teams will have to trade for him. The same goes for Smith, Gunston, Breust or any other player that opposition clubs want to target.

Hawthorn has a ton of cap space. They could still trade for an established player just like Wingard last year when that trade came out of nowhere.

Missing out on Coniglio is not a major blow. He would’ve been more your “icing on the cake” then the difference maker.

Hawthorn already beat GWS, West Coast, Geelong and Collingwood without Mitchell who is a significanty better player than Coniglio anyway.

The Hawks will add two 18 year old midfielders via this years draft. One of those being Maguinness as a F/S selection.