Analysis Blow it up - when's the next premiership window and how do we get there?

Elite Crow

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By the end of the 1996 season McGuiness, McDermott, Anderson and Jarman were all 30+ and performing inconsistently. But we'd "backed 'em in". They were the leaders, the stalwarts.

The following blokes were drafted in 1994 and 1995, listed here with the games they had played by the end of 1996.
Tyson Edwards - 17 games
Kane Johnson - 5 games
Peter Vardy - 6 games

They were in and out of the team, and never given a real crack. No one really knew what they could bring.

Blight came in with a broom, got rid of the old servants who couldn't get it done anymore - a very unpopular thing at the time - and brought in the young kids for 1997. Goodwin was also debuted in Round 1, 1997. All four of them were absolute stars.

We currently are in an identical situation. I will leave it to you to work out who needs to be "broomed" out for Fogarty, Gallucci, Jones, Himmelberg and McHenry. Do I expect a flag? Of course not. Will all 5 be stars? Who knows. But they need strings of games to find out. Whether we get a new coach or stick with Don, the dead wood needs to but cut off. It's so blatantly clear.
Exactly. But under our current administration it will never happen, they would never risk bottoming out if it didn’t work out.

Mackay and Douglas should not have played this year, if we didnt have the belief we could cover them we should have just closed the doors.
 
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By the end of the 1996 season McGuiness, McDermott, Anderson and Jarman were all 30+ and performing inconsistently. But we'd "backed 'em in". They were the leaders, the stalwarts.

The following blokes were drafted in 1994 and 1995, listed here with the games they had played by the end of 1996.
Tyson Edwards - 17 games
Kane Johnson - 5 games
Peter Vardy - 6 games

They were in and out of the team, and never given a real crack. No one really knew what they could bring.

Blight came in with a broom, got rid of the old servants who couldn't get it done anymore - a very unpopular thing at the time - and brought in the young kids for 1997. Goodwin was also debuted in Round 1, 1997. McLeod was also in and out of the team across 1995/6 and was never settled in a position, much like Milera. All five of them turned out to be absolute stars.

We currently are in an identical situation. I will leave it to you to work out who needs to be "broomed" out for Fogarty, Gallucci, Jones, Himmelberg and McHenry. Do I expect a flag? Of course not. Will all 5 be stars? Who knows. But they need strings of games to find out. Whether we get a new coach or stick with Don, the dead wood needs to but cut off. It's so blatantly clear.
And the Apricot Slice brigade hated it then and there were calls to boycott games then.

Even towards the end of the year when it looked like we could miss Blight was criticised.

Lets be very clear if the similar happened today then a large number would be very very unhappy , only now they have a vehicle to vent their anger.
 

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Don’t believe in premiership windows. Look at bulldogs in 2016. Takes luck and good drafting and trading and you can stay up all the time
 

Don Muraco

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And the Apricot Slice brigade hated it then and there were calls to boycott games then.

Even towards the end of the year when it looked like we could miss Blight was criticised.

Lets be very clear if the similar happened today then a large number would be very very unhappy , only now they have a vehicle to vent their anger.
That apricot slice brigade is long gone
 

Crowhorse

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The premiership window model is flawed. A lot of risk with what can be no reward.

You need to be competitive year in-year out, it’s the only way to breed success within a club.

You need to recruit and retain talent, make sure you connect with them, get the best out of them and make them want to be there. Then you need to keep the footy dept fresh and ahead of the game.

Once players have peaked and offer less each year, move them on to greener pastures, they can be an asset at another club for more pay. The one club player should no longer exist (I bet Clarko wishes he moved Hodge and Co on sooner than he did). Need to be prepared to make the hard decisions on and off the field.
 

kulak

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This thread is about how to execute a rebuild in the modern AFL.

Preamble
Clearly this core isn't winning a premiership. This season we may miss the 8 and next season, if we keep a mix of current core and some new guys, we'll likely miss the 8 as guys like Jones, Fog and McHenry will take some time to get set. Even if we make the 8, are we competing against a mix of clubs with elite current lists and clubs with potentially elite young lists? Probably not.

The draft pick penalties and departures of two of our 2014 draft picks has meant we have no mid-20s supplemental core who the veterans could support going forward. This, along with the mishandling of 2018, is fundamentally why our premiership window was too short. You'd ordinarily be able to back up the core with a couple of seasons of young guns coming through. We had a wave and now we're done.

So how do we get back up and actually win one in the near future?

In my view: AFL is not a league like the NFL, NBA or NHL where your #1 pick might instantly become a game changer (in the NFL if it's a QB, in the NBA you might pick up LeBron James, in the NHL a Sidney Crosby/Alex Ovechkin). This is a sport where there are 18 guys out there at once and plenty of guys end the game having only touched the ball 15 times. Ultimately you have clubs like Melbourne and Carlton (despite recent form) which struggle at the bottom of the ladder for years despite tanking and repeat top end draft picks, while other clubs can reload effectively in the middle of the draft. It's therefore about first round quantity vs. quality, to increase your chance of success. This is why I'm not going to get sad about missing out on Rowell/Anderson, or even Luko. There's every chance you pick up Connor Rozee a few picks later.

Anyway, I think this means we ask ourselves the following questions:

Question 1: When's the earliest next possible premiership window?
Think this is a matter of determining when you'll next have a premiership-winning core in that 25-27 year old range.

You might think it's 2022. In 3 years, the ~25-27 year old group will be
  • Matt Crouch
  • Jake Kelly
  • Riley Knight
  • ROB
  • Doedee
Is that group winning a premiership off their own backs? I'm pessimistic. Wind it forward to 2024 and you've got a bunch of unknowns but more potential in the core:
  • Doedee
  • Milera
  • Gallucci
  • Elliot Himmelberg
  • Murphy
  • Stengle
  • With some 24 year olds in Fogarty, Jones, McHenry backing them up
That'll have to do

Question 2: Of players who will be 30 or older in 2024, who has value now?
Laird, Brad Crouch, Hugh Greenwood, CEY, Seedsman, Keath, Brodie Smith, Hartigan, Talia, Lynch, Sloane

I think they've all got plenty to offer in the next 2-3 seasons, but they'll be fading away by 2022, and mostly done by 2024. Think this group all need to be aggressively on the radar to trade off to a club who thinks they have short-term value for a premiership tilt but are missing a piece. The strategy is effectively to do a Bryce Gibbs trade but be on the winning end.

Question 3: Trade them for picks if the opportunity comes up
You obviously can't gut the core entirely otherwise players won't want to be here (although not like they stay regardless). That said, if anyone in that group shows a hint of wanting to leave, they should be shown the door. Accumulate 2-3 draft picks in the 1-20 range over the course of the next 3 drafts.

Then by 2024 you have (in addition to the group above), potentially 6 high-end young guys and hopefully some decent pickups from other avenues along the way.

Addendum: anyone who will be well into retirement by 2024 doesn't get a game after this season
I say after this season because to be honest with only a few rounds left and given we're not owning our own draft picks, I don't mind just letting the old core have a few more runs around the park.

But add 5 years to Betts, Douglas, MacKay, Jenkins, Gibbs, Otten...think there are some "you might not ever get back out of the SANFL" discussions that need to be had. We need to know what we have with the 2024 core because if they can't hack it, we might need to take a hard look.

Obviously this is all hypothetical because the club is likely going to do nothing and make moves that will allow us to remain a middle-of-the-ladder side. But what are our other options?

tldr: think we can avoid another 10 years of mediocrity by aggressively trading out our current 'stars' and rebuilding around the likes of Doedee and Milera in 2024
Our first ever rebuild. This is exactly what we should do.

However the AFC has consistently said We Do Not Bottom Out, we will want to stay competitive. I expect that we will instead tinker at the edges and hope to stay in contention for the 8 every year.
 
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Absolutely no point in concerning ourselves with on-field/list management strategies while the board and coaching panel remains the way it is

Our culture doesn’t have us looking any further ahead than the 4 points on offer this weekend. There’s no way they strategise beyond that.
 

marty36

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The premiership window model is flawed. A lot of risk with what can be no reward.

You need to be competitive year in-year out, it’s the only way to breed success within a club.

You need to recruit and retain talent, make sure you connect with them, get the best out of them and make them want to be there. Then you need to keep the footy dept fresh and ahead of the game.

Once players have peaked and offer less each year, move them on to greener pastures, they can be an asset at another club for more pay. The one club player should no longer exist (I bet Clarko wishes he moved Hodge and Co on sooner than he did). Need to be prepared to make the hard decisions on and off the field.
Do you want think the way the AFL is manipulating the comp they want teams to stay up or do you think the manipulation that they have the ability to do will achieve over time a rise and fall in clubs

Why do you think this model is a necessity in the game

If this doesn't happen will perennial bottom clubs eventually fold

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Flying_as_One1991

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Do you want think the way the AFL is manipulating the comp they want teams to stay up or do you think the manipulation that they have the ability to do will achieve over time a rise and fall in clubs

Why do you think this model is a necessity in the game

If this doesn't happen will perennial bottom clubs eventually fold

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

In what way is the AFL manipulating the competition? I agree the fixture needs tweaking but don’t quite get what you mean.
 
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Just saw this on the AFL website. Scary at where the club is at.

Under-23 players: 15 players in total
Wayne Milera (56 games), Lachlan Murphy (29 games), Jordan Gallucci (27 games), Tom Doedee (21 games), Myles Poholke (11 games), Darcy Fogarty (10 games), Elliott Himmelberg (eight games), Chayce Jones (six games), Tyson Stengle (four games), Ben Davis (one game), Jordon Butts, Will Hamill, Ned McHenry, Andrew McPherson, Lachlan Sholl


Rising Star nominees: Two players
Wayne Milera (2017), Tom Doedee (2018)


No.1 star: Wayne Milera's most damaging performances have come across half-back, but he's been used through the midfield in recent weeks to add leg speed to the Crows' onball brigade.
 

marty36

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In what way is the AFL manipulating the competition? I agree the fixture needs tweaking but don’t quite get what you mean.
Draft picks maybe priority picks, f/s, equalization, acadameys , salary cap allowances actually funding clubs

They have used all the above and will use more to get the comp to have rise and fall consistently

If they don't clubs cannot survive at the bottom for extended periods and will fold

They need the NSW and QLD to go well it's 50% of our population it's a non negotiable

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
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And the Apricot Slice brigade hated it then and there were calls to boycott games then.

Even towards the end of the year when it looked like we could miss Blight was criticised.

Lets be very clear if the similar happened today then a large number would be very very unhappy , only now they have a vehicle to vent their anger.
Not sure that’s entirely true. I remember it was controversial in the beginning, but I think it passed fairly quickly.

After the bad start we were in the 8 by round 7, and top at round 19. Not sure we looked like missing after the second month if he season.
 

Mike Smyth

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Our culture doesn’t have us looking any further ahead than the 4 points on offer this weekend. There’s no way they strategise beyond that.

It will be interesting to see where the guys in our football dept end up once they are finally chased out of the AFC. I would say most, Reid-Burton-Roo-Hart-Campo-Clarke, will not get a significant job at another club.
 
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Just saw this on the AFL website. Scary at where the club is at.

Under-23 players: 15 players in total
Wayne Milera (56 games), Lachlan Murphy (29 games), Jordan Gallucci (27 games), Tom Doedee (21 games), Myles Poholke (11 games), Darcy Fogarty (10 games), Elliott Himmelberg (eight games), Chayce Jones (six games), Tyson Stengle (four games), Ben Davis (one game), Jordon Butts, Will Hamill, Ned McHenry, Andrew McPherson, Lachlan Sholl


Rising Star nominees: Two players
Wayne Milera (2017), Tom Doedee (2018)


No.1 star: Wayne Milera's most damaging performances have come across half-back, but he's been used through the midfield in recent weeks to add leg speed to the Crows' onball brigade.
We've only got one player under 23 who has played over 30 games?

Jesus Christ
 

marty36

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Just saw this on the AFL website. Scary at where the club is at.

Under-23 players: 15 players in total
Wayne Milera (56 games), Lachlan Murphy (29 games), Jordan Gallucci (27 games), Tom Doedee (21 games), Myles Poholke (11 games), Darcy Fogarty (10 games), Elliott Himmelberg (eight games), Chayce Jones (six games), Tyson Stengle (four games), Ben Davis (one game), Jordon Butts, Will Hamill, Ned McHenry, Andrew McPherson, Lachlan Sholl


Rising Star nominees: Two players
Wayne Milera (2017), Tom Doedee (2018)


No.1 star: Wayne Milera's most damaging performances have come across half-back, but he's been used through the midfield in recent weeks to add leg speed to the Crows' onball brigade.


Cant see any out and out stars coming out of that lot, 4 or 5 honest 200 gamers in the Van Berloo types

Fog or Milera maybe the best out of that lot
 
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Cant see any out and out stars coming out of that lot, 4 or 5 honest 200 gamers in the Van Berloo types

Fog or Milera maybe the best out of that lot
Tom Doedee the outstanding. Milera always threatening to step up. So much for all our recruiting huff and puff and out player development. Some of last years recruits should make it but years of poor draft choices have left us vulnerable. We gave up a lot of picks on players like Gibbs, Menzel and Hampton etc.
 
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The problem is- we're not even moving closer towards a window. We're moving further away from one.
The window is subjective and a bit of bullshit.

12 months ago Brisbane were miles off, now everyone is going to judge them as in this window.

Remeber when Port where in their window? I think it's still there according to some.
 

Flying_as_One1991

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It’s amazing how little games our kids under 23 have actually played and some can get a consistent run of games as we keep the old firm in

Not all are going to be 200 game players but think some can have an impact at AFL level if played in the right positions and given a long run of opportunities not just two or three games and then dropped.

Some draftees take time and haven’t seen enough of some hardly any of them to make judgement just yet.

Ben Davis came in for 1 game (worst game to debut, Geelong at Geelong). I think Crows supporters are quick to put the “he’s not up to AFL Standard” tag way too quick.
 
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Any good list manager or football development guru will always say 'pump some games into the juniors '

It does at times mean gifting some games to some but the benefit is you get to see which can and which cant

If this means you sacrifice a Douglas or Mackay then do so

Murphy on 29 is interesting. I personally don't think he will amount to much, I hope I am wrong
 

marty36

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Tom Doedee the outstanding. Milera always threatening to step up. So much for all our recruiting huff and puff and out player development. Some of last years recruits should make it but years of poor draft choices have left us vulnerable. We gave up a lot of picks on players like Gibbs, Menzel and Hampton etc.

Wow 20 game player now outstanding, no wonder we are stuffed
 

marty36

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Any good list manager or football development guru will always say 'pump some games into the juniors '

It does at times mean gifting some games to some but the benefit is you get to see which can and which cant

If this means you sacrifice a Douglas or Mackay then do so

Murphy on 29 is interesting. I personally don't think he will amount to much, I hope I am wrong

You do realise they play every week
 

marty36

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The window is subjective and a bit of bulls**t.

12 months ago Brisbane were miles off, now everyone is going to judge them as in this window.

Remeber when Port where in their window? I think it's still there according to some.

Our window was wide open in 2017 but look what happened in 2018
 
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