Bluemour Discussion Thread XVII - Coniglio means Rabbit in Italian!

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I realise that but there is still a limit. It's NEVER free. If we sign Coniglio it will cost us someone if not a few players. We have a lot of talent we will have to resign over the next few years whilst still trying to bring in more talent. IMO it's not as simple as people make out

No, it’s not free. But we do lose that banked space, it’s use it or lose it. We can go at 105% next year and (I think) 2021.

Think of it more like we have a one off signing bonus available this year for Coniglio.
 

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90% Coniglio will stay at Giants. People getting their hopes up too much. But yeah, on the off chance he left we will be in great position to be the one to get him and those with view that if we went under the cap by certain amount last two seasons, we can front load that into his contract if the 10% chance he did leave Giants.
 
No, it’s not free. But we do lose that banked space, it’s use it or lose it. We can go at 105% next year and (I think) 2021.

Think of it more like we have a one off signing bonus available this year for Coniglio.

I don't see it that way. Doesn't make sense to me. That money could be used to pay Charlie or Weitering or Walsh or McKay etc. Does it stop us getting in other players as we would have used all our space?

When the deal is $1.3m over 7 years (as reported) there is only so much you can front load and still have a lot over.

I'm not against getting Coniglio but I do have my concerns for several reasons. More about List Management and long term success.
 
I’m really pleased with Newman and Gibbons. They’ve come in and had to work for a second chance, they’ve not cost us much at all. I don’t like the idea of paying overs for one star. Too many eggs in one basket. Trust our lost and the development of our own blue stars.
We currently have a lot of eggs, I think we can afford to buy one golden one.
 
I realise that but there is still a limit. It's NEVER free. If we sign Coniglio it will cost us someone if not a few players. We have a lot of talent we will have to resign over the next few years whilst still trying to bring in more talent. IMO it's not as simple as people make out
Yep, far more intricate than any of us would ever know. Remember, sustainable success is the goal. We would be projecting this list years into the future and constantly reassessing and arranging the plan as each card falls. If the club deems the cost is worth it, then we only hope the proper work has been done behind the scenes, which I'm sure it has.
 
I don't see it that way. Doesn't make sense to me. That money could be used to pay Charlie or Weitering or Walsh or McKay etc. Does it stop us getting in other players as we would have used all our space?

When the deal is $1.3m over 7 years (as reported) there is only so much you can front load and still have a lot over.

I'm not against getting Coniglio but I do have my concerns for several reasons. More about List Management and long term success.

Those guys are all already contracted for the next few years. We lose our banked money if we don’t spend it.

I’d guess we could pay something like 4 million to Coniglio over the first 2 years.

For sure getting him will limit our ability to bring in another top class signing. He’s a better option than Shiel though, and how many players at that grade move clubs?

I reckon he’ll stay at the Giants (and I actually think this would be better for football as a whole), but if he leaves and we get him, I won’t be upset.
 
I realise that but there is still a limit. It's NEVER free. If we sign Coniglio it will cost us someone if not a few players. We have a lot of talent we will have to resign over the next few years whilst still trying to bring in more talent. IMO it's not as simple as people make out

And if it costs us someone or two, that's OK depending on who those someones are. That's how the system works. We're going to lose some players along the line, you can't bring in as much young talent as we have, with the intention of having the bulk of them reach their peak around a similar time, and just assume they'll all stay on reduced salaries.

We could pass on Coniglio and still lose someone like Charlie or Fisher in a couple of years, and then how stupid do we look.

With the talent we have, we can afford to fill the bottom 10 spots on our list with guys like Gibbons, Deluca and Goddard, or late picks like Schumacher, Kerr, Macreadie and Willo. And we can afford to rotate them out if their contract expectations get too big.

Marquee: Cripps, Curnow, Walsh
Top shelf: Docherty, McKay, Weitering

They're the ones I can see getting "big" contract offers, with us an elsewhere. Once you move past that group there's still a heap of "potential" and "good but not elite", as well as plenty of honest role players.

I reckon you can afford to have a couple of marquee players on appropriately inflated contracts, and looking at our list we have one who is already there, and two who will probably be in the coming years. If Coniglio is on marquee money for two years, then back to Top Shelf money after that, I think we can find a way to balance it. If it means Plowman or McGovern or Cuningham or O'Brien go chasing a better offer elsewhere, so be it - by that stage we should be performing well enough that we'll have more honest role players lining up for a chance to join us.

I think we're also pretty lucky to have two fantastic, mature young leaders in Cripps and Docherty, both of whom I believe would have the strength of character to take a pay cut for a few years if it helped to keep the best 22 together while we're in contention. And I think with the respect afforded those two leaders by the rest of the team, there would be others willing to follow their lead and do the same.

If one of our young guns goes mercenary - so be it. Extract maximum value and the next soldier steps up.
 

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I don't see it that way. Doesn't make sense to me. That money could be used to pay Charlie or Weitering or Walsh or McKay etc. Does it stop us getting in other players as we would have used all our space?

When the deal is $1.3m over 7 years (as reported) there is only so much you can front load and still have a lot over.

I'm not against getting Coniglio but I do have my concerns for several reasons. More about List Management and long term success.
The current cap is roughly $13 million per season next year, 5% of that is $650,000 extra we should have available. Use that, on top of front ending the contract generally for two years, and the contract is more than manageable. The salary cap is also currently going up until 2022 where it will be $13.54million

$1.3m per season over 7 seasons is $9.1million
2020 - $1.95 million (15% of cap, 14.28% if you are including the additional cap space)
2021 - $1.95 million (14.7% of cap)
2020 - $1.3 million (9.6% of cap)
2021 - $1.3 million (9.6% of cap)
2022 - $0.86 million (6.4% of cap)
2023 - $0.86 million (6.4% of cap)
2024 - $0.86 million (6.4% of cap)

I'm happy to spend, on average 9.7% of our cap on Coniglio over the next 7 years. It's more than adequate. Also, cap could well go up again in 2023 and beyond.
 
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Those guys are all already contracted for the next few years. We lose our banked money if we don’t spend it.

I’d guess we could pay something like 4 million to Coniglio over the first 2 years.

For sure getting him will limit our ability to bring in another top class signing. He’s a better option than Shiel though, and how many players at that grade move clubs?

I reckon he’ll stay at the Giants (and I actually think this would be better for football as a whole), but if he leaves and we get him, I won’t be upset.

I don't agree. You need a deep 30 players to win a flag and especially multiple. Putting so much on just ONE player just doesn't sit well with me. Rarely if ever worked when the goal is flags.
 
Neither hill is coming to Carlton
Appreciate the insight, tcp. That b/c he's going back to Hawthorn?

If we can nab Paps, great. Martin, too? Brilliant.

Cogs is obvs Plan A atm but I wonder who this other player is if not Hill, given we'd seemingly been linked to him... Any word on whether that player in Question plays for a VIC or interstate team?
 
2021
4.
Lochie O'Brien
5. Sam Petrevski-Seton
9. Patrick Cripps
10.
Harry McKay
12.
Tom De Koning
15. Sam Docherty
23. Jacob Weitering
25.
Zac Fisher

1 more year of relatively 'easy' salary cap management - and then not so easy.


We lose most of Simpson, Murphy, Kruezer and Thomas between now and end of 2021. That frees up a bit of space; probably close to 2 million, and at least 1.5 million if all 4 go.

Cripps is already on a bit (we renegotiated his contract recently to take him up to F/A) and he'd easily be the highest paid player at the club at around 750k give or take.

We'll need money spare to fight off the inevitble F/A poaching attempts from the WA clubs in 2021, but I reckon we have more than enough money for a top flight FA or two between now and then, plus being able to offer Cripps a comparable contract to help him stay.
 
The current cap is roughly $13 million per season next year, 5% of that is $650,000 extra we should have available. Use that, on top of front ending the contract generally for two years, and the contract is more than manageable. The salary cap is also currently going up until 2022 where it will be $13.54million

$1.3m per season over 7 seasons is $9.1million
2020 - $1.95 million (15% of cap, excluding bonus cap)
2021 - $1.95 million (14.7% of cap)
2020 - $1.3 million (9.6% of cap)
2021 - $1.3 million (9.6% of cap)
2022 - $0.86 million (6.4% of cap)
2023 - $0.86 million (6.4% of cap)
2024 - $0.86 million (6.4% of cap)

I'm happy to spend, on average 9.7% of our cap on Coniglio over the next 7 years. It's more than adequate. Also, cap could well go up again in 2023 and beyond.

10% or more on ONE player out of 45? Bloody Hell. Worse than I thought especially for someone who has 4-5 years maximum at his peak and is injury prone. Massive gamble

I remember similar discussions re: Shiel last year and I reckon it work out better for us.

Hawks have been spending big money on players whilst delisting others to pay for it and I reckon it has backfired badly
 
I think I'm going to have to agree because it's so unlikely to work out. So tempting though when you consider what a fully fit Bennell would add to the list.
Where would a bloke like Martin pike be if Matthews didn’t take a punt. Reputation on/off field just as poor if not worse but convinced matthews he could reform. Game is littered with examples like him including at our club. Of course there are others who remain c*******s no matter what. I just can’t see Roos Lyon persisting with Bennell for as long as he did if didn’t see something a la pike. Talent undeniable, Worth a chat at the very least for mine.
 
Where would a bloke like Martin pike be if Matthews didn’t take a punt. Reputation on/off field just as poor if not worse but convinced matthews he could reform. Game is littered with examples like him including at our club. Of course there are others who remain c*******s no matter what. I just can’t see Roos Lyon persisting with Bennell for as long as he did if didn’t see something a la pike. Talent undeniable, Worth a chat at the very least for mine.

Sydney Stack?
 
10% or more on ONE player out of 45? Bloody Hell. Worse than I thought especially for someone who has 4-5 years maximum at his peak and is injury prone. Massive gamble

I remember similar discussions re: Shiel last year and I reckon it work out better for us.

Hawks have been spending big money on players whilst delisting others to pay for it and I reckon it has backfired badly
However, base salary for a 3 year player is $105k and Rookie is $75k. Meaning a fair chunk of those 45 players only make up 0.5% of a salary cap, 5 to six rookies and five to six base salary players means 10-12 players on your list only takes up around 6% of the cap. Leaving 94% of the cap to be spread out amongst 30 players. The majority of whom will be close to the average wage, which is around $350k.
 
I don't agree. You need a deep 30 players to win a flag and especially multiple. Putting so much on just ONE player just doesn't sit well with me. Rarely if ever worked when the goal is flags.

It’s not just one player though. It’s adding another (ready to go) gun to a multitude of guns: Cripps/Charlie/Harry/Walsh/Setterfield/Samo/Doc/Weitering/Jones

We’re at the stage where we should be adding targeted players to our young, highly talented list. It’s now absolutely about quality, not quantity. Papley is the one I want most. Cogs won’t cost a draft pick.
 
Whatever the club does in terms of list management every decision in the next 5 to 10 years needs to be made with the following in mind.

Don’t lose Patrick Cripps
Don’t lose Sam Walsh
Don’t lose Jacob Weitering
Don’t lose Charlie Curnow
Don’t lose Harry MCKay

Everyone else and everything else falls around these 5 key players over the next decade including Coniglio.
I trust the club understands this.
 
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