Analysis Contested Possessions

[Drofder]

I haven't got the numbers in front of me but I think the CP's in the 2017 finals series we either broke even or won reasonably in all games.

We'll need to lift in this area in the finals. Its a worry for mine.

 

[Tiger71]

Richmond Statistic Carlton
151 Contested Possessions 168

Melbourne Statistic Richmond
126 Contested Possessions 124

Collingwood Statistic Richmond
150 Contested Possessions 142

Richmond Statistic GWS
129 Contested Possessions 154



Problem or no problem?


edit: As Tiger71 points out i get Richmond are pretty good when the ball spills out and some of it is due to game-style and plan. Yet I dont think Dimma will be happy with being the 2nd worse contested possession side in the AfL in 2019? All well and good vs poo teams like Carlton but will the lack of ball winning be a problem in finals? were the games might tighten up

You have not factored in for half the year we had major injuries Outside of that, what is the prime use of a contested possession ? I would think that would be to get the ball right ? Then once you have the ball, you would then get it in your F50 would be the aim yeah ? Which should help your score, correct ?

Ranked 5th in Points Per Game

Ranked 2nd in Inside 50s Per Game

Ranked 5th in Goal Assists Per Game

Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Inside 50s Per Game Diff.

It's a non issue

 

[Dr Tigris]

It's a hard one to get your head around...You can lose individual contests but set up to win the overall situation...

Believe it: Contested possessions are important

'Win the contested ball and you’ll win the game' - it's fast becoming a Kingism (calling it contested ball certainly doesn’t help in this…

www.theroar.com.au

Fairly standard systems thinking. If you optimize the sub-systems you can actually sub-optimise the overall system.
I work in a university, so say you focus on immediate employment of graduates (which the government is doing) you could easily negatively impact their long term employability and ability to help the country. Why? Because what makes you more employable in the short run might not help you in the long run. To increase immediate employability post-graduation you probably should increase the amount of vocational training in a degree, especially how to do/use specific things that are currently in use in industry. But you only have a limited amount of time to teach people in a degree, so something has to go, probably the underlying theory. Things will change and you will have a lesser understanding of the underpinnings of your area and so need more retraining. Also your creativity is likely to be less, because you have a more shallow understanding of the area. End result improving one area (Immediate employability) may reduce the long term ability to system (university education for long term careers, and improving the economy).

Similarly, focusing on getting contested ball means you need more of a certain type of player going in close more often. Therefore your drafting, development, team selection and game plan will be different to team that focuses on the next possession. Probably subtly different, but still different. So optimizing contested ball means sub-optimizing other aspects. For us we try to optimise sub-systems of 1) the possession clearing contests and 2) intercepting the opposition. 1) We try to ensure that teams have difficulty getting clean ball movement from contests (when they do our set up leaves us wide open), and that we can surge from contests. We do this be only having enough players in the contests to cause a genuine contest (not trying to always win - i.e. optimize contested ball) and having an outnumber around the contest. That outnumber allows us to intercept/tackle the oppo if they have the ball, and it allows us to break away if we get it. End result we tend to win the clean break from a contest, which is what matters. 2) By having less players around the ball we have a defensive spare. That works if we can pressure the oppo in their forward ball movement. So we get intercept marks and rebounds. Conclusion our system is structured to allow us to win the key bits of a game that lead to us scoring and others teams not scoring. One of those bits is not contested ball. One of those bits is breaking from a contest.

TLDR: you are right.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

Fairly standard systems thinking. If you optimize the sub-systems you can actually sub-optimise the overall system.
I work in a university, so say you focus on immediate employment of graduates (which the government is doing) you could easily negatively impact their long term employability and ability to help the country. Why? Because what makes you more employable in the short run might not help you in the long run. To increase immediate employability post-graduation you probably should increase the amount of vocational training in a degree, especially how to do/use specific things that are currently in use in industry. But you only have a limited amount of time to teach people in a degree, so something has to go, probably the underlying theory. Things will change and you will have a lesser understanding of the underpinnings of your area and so need more retraining. Also your creativity is likely to be less, because you have a more shallow understanding of the area. End result improving one area (Immediate employability) may reduce the long term ability to system (university education for long term careers, and improving the economy).

Similarly, focusing on getting contested ball means you need more of a certain type of player going in close more often. Therefore your drafting, development, team selection and game plan will be different to team that focuses on the next possession. Probably subtly different, but still different. So optimizing contested ball means sub-optimizing other aspects. For us we try to optimise sub-systems of 1) the possession clearing contests and 2) intercepting the opposition. 1) We try to ensure that teams have difficulty getting clean ball movement from contests (when they do our set up leaves us wide open), and that we can surge from contests. We do this be only having enough players in the contests to cause a genuine contest (not trying to always win - i.e. optimize contested ball) and having an outnumber around the contest. That outnumber allows us to intercept/tackle the oppo if they have the ball, and it allows us to break away if we get it. End result we tend to win the clean break from a contest, which is what matters. 2) By having less players around the ball we have a defensive spare. That works if we can pressure the oppo in their forward ball movement. So we get intercept marks and rebounds. Conclusion our system is structured to allow us to win the key bits of a game that lead to us scoring and others teams not scoring. One of those bits is not contested ball. One of those bits is breaking from a contest.

TLDR: you are right.

I need a simple analogy to better understand how all these words describe a system...

 

[Dr Tigris]

I need a simple analogy to better understand how all these words describe a system...

System - Round 1 Tigers v Blues

Sub-system Cripps wins heaps of possessions

Sub-system Richmond pressures the blues into making mistakes and so feeding our players through mistakes and intercepts

Sub-system Our extra man and better runners surge through their defense and feed the Jack and Tom show, with crumbers feasting on the scraps.

Overall system results - Carton wins the contested ball and loses by 87 points.

 

[mopsy]

its all good if losing c/p and clearances doesnt convert into fwd 50 entries for the opposition

It becomes a real problem losing these areas if it is resulting in the oppo getting it inside more than we do or just as much as we do or they get repeat entries.

Havent really looked at it but id guess losing these areas has significantly contributed to sides winning i/50 and when that has happened id take a guess and say we have been beaten.

 

[This Is Anfield]

Where is the stat for effective contested possession?
Team A gets first hand and is tackled, contested possession no.1 , ball up and they get contested possession no.2, shank the kick to unoppossed team B player who waltzes into goal.
Team A 2 contested possessions and zero points - Team B zero contested possessions and six points.

 

[4tune8]

I reckon the Tigs coaches have identified that winning the centre bounce is a major key to giving us an opportunity of scoring.

Stoppage clearances are another thing.....by playing 1 less at stoppages allows us to set up with an extra somewhere else, ie; get the ball back via turnover and hurt with the guys surging.

I think we are ranked pretty high for centre clearances and quite low for stoppages

 

[TigerImposter]

Definition of Contested Possessions:

Based on the definition below the reality is it’s really not a true indicator that if you lose this stat that you’re going to suffer. I think our clearances differential maybe more important.

Contested possession: a possession achieved as a result of winning a contest. Includes hardball gets, looseball gets, contested marks, free kicks won in a contest, and contestedknock-ons.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

System - Round 1 Tigers v Blues

Sub-system Cripps wins heaps of possessions

Sub-system Richmond pressures the blues into making mistakes and so feeding our players through mistakes and intercepts

Sub-system Our extra man and better runners surge through their defense and feed the Jack and Tom show, with crumbers feasting on the scraps.

Overall system results - Carton wins the contested ball and loses by 87 points.

Ok then which of those two systems when in full operation mode uses the less energy to implement?!?!

 

[Tiger2709]

CONTESTED POSSESSION
A possession which has been won when the ball is in dispute. Includes looseball-gets, hardball-gets, contested marks, gathers from a hit-out and frees for.

Stats glossary: Every stat explained

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www.afl.com.au

I wouldn't put to much weight on cp's, many are frees and looseball gets, our stats never match up too many teams, we play a different style that is hard to rate sometimes.

 

[Tiger2709]

Definition of Contested Possessions:

Based on the definition below the reality is it’s really not a true indicator that if you lose this stat that you’re going to suffer. I think our clearances differential maybe more important.

Contested possession: a possession achieved as a result of winning a contest. Includes hardball gets, looseball gets, contested marks, free kicks won in a contest, and contestedknock-ons.

View attachment 726704

Damn must remember to read all the posts.

 

[Daka]

We will win against most teams losing it or breaking even sometimes but against a team like West Coast, Geelong & Brisbane i feel we need to win the contested possession and be real good in the clearances. In the 2017 GF we spanked the Crows and flogged Geelong in CP qualifying final. GWS won it but we were close we need tighten this up to do some damage in finals 2019.

 

[theflea]

I think if we go ok and are winning the contest, we generally will have low CP's v the oppo however we still need to flick the switch when necessary ie, its not going to plan, we are getting scored against. Therefore in this situation I think we need to crack in more. Think PF last year.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

We need to stop focusing on what we done wrong last year in the PF and worrying about how we are failing in some KPI's and work on our strengths and save the 'cracking in' for the egurls on Sunday! And then take it from there! Finals start Sunday!

 

[Dr Tigris]

Ok then which of those two systems when in full operation mode uses the less energy to implement?!?!

Not sure. The contested ball focused system causes more wrestling. So the inside guys work harder.

The break away system leads to more running, so more guys working harder.

All depends on what you mean.

basically, to me, in the last few years the focus on pure contested ball hasn't been a winning tactic.

 

[Marcel Proust]

It's a non issue

i guess we will see

basically, to me, in the last few years the focus on pure contested ball hasn't been a winning tactic.

wce won a fair bit of it in last years finals.

With an excellent forward line and very well structured back6

 

[Dr Tigris]

i guess we will see



wce won a fair bit of it in last years finals.

With an excellent forward line and very well structured back6

Yep. You still have to win contested possession. But the term covers so much that you can win contested ball, but still have little impact. It's controlling the contest that matters. That means you have to be in there fighting for the ball. But it doesn't mean a pure focus on contested ball is the best policy. That's all.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

Yep. You still have to win contested possession. But the term covers so much that you can win contested ball, but still have little impact. It's controlling the contest that matters. That means you have to be in there fighting for the ball. But it doesn't mean a pure focus on contested ball is the best policy. That's all.

I reckon pros and cons with cps...I watched the Dees a few times and to me they look like they over commit to contesting ownership of the footy and one fumble or miss-kick, technical free, dropped mark, not 15 meters and they give up possession of the ball they always seem to be beaten on the spred and pace on the outside...
Then Norff destroyed us by going hard at the ball/contest, and then the same with the next few teams and now?!? They have repeated that pattern for years...hard, harder, then sheet...
I'm sure their is a right balance...
I mean we won a GF with a tactic of moving that footy forward as fast as...knock -on's, tap on's, kick along the ground, punch/fist the ball forward...don't pick the footy up just move it on..I mean what sort of contested possessions are those?!?

 

[Dr Tigris]

I reckon pros and cons with cps...I watched the Dees a few times and to me they look like they over commit to contesting ownership of the footy and one fumble or miss-kick, technical free, dropped mark, not 15 meters and they give up possession of the ball they always seem to be beaten on the spred and pace on the outside...
Then Norff destroyed us by going hard at the ball/contest, and then the same with the next few teams and now?!? They have repeated that pattern for years...hard, harder, then sheet...
I'm sure their is a right balance...
I mean we won a GF with a tactic of moving that footy forward as fast as...knock -on's, tap on's, kick along the ground, punch/fist the ball forward...don't pick the footy up just move it on..I mean what sort of contested possessions are those?!?

Melbourne have way over committed to contested ball. They basically have to be perfect on the outside to move the ball. And that is hard ot do all the time. They get over run by most teams on the outside. As soon as their inside game slowed against us, and they started missing a few targets we tore them apart.

North are very hard at the ball, but also have transition. I like their style. But they are also vulnerable to a team that can nullify their contest, because then they haven't got anything else.

Our strategy is really to control the ball coming out of the contests - either to cause problems if the other team has it, or to move it quickly into space going our way if we have it. Problem with our tactic is that we have to keep a very strong structure to be able to make it work. SO if you can disrupt our structure we're left wide open. The way that we have been disrupted is when a team controls contested ball and then moves it out cleanly. So our weakness is contested ball - but only when the next possession is clean. Then our structure actually leaves us wide open. That's why I want graham, Ross, Meatball, and Cotch (+ Dusty) inside. We have to stop the opposition having a 'clean' contest. great if we have a clean break from a contest. But when the contest is messy I reckon we will beat any other AFL team.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

Melbourne have way over committed to contested ball. They basically have to be perfect on the outside to move the ball. And that is hard ot do all the time. They get over run by most teams on the outside. As soon as their inside game slowed against us, and they started missing a few targets we tore them apart.

North are very hard at the ball, but also have transition. I like their style. But they are also vulnerable to a team that can nullify their contest, because then they haven't got anything else.

Our strategy is really to control the ball coming out of the contests - either to cause problems if the other team has it, or to move it quickly into space going our way if we have it. Problem with our tactic is that we have to keep a very strong structure to be able to make it work. SO if you can disrupt our structure we're left wide open. The way that we have been disrupted is when a team controls contested ball and then moves it out cleanly. So our weakness is contested ball - but only when the next possession is clean. Then our structure actually leaves us wide open. That's why I want graham, Ross, Meatball, and Cotch (+ Dusty) inside. We have to stop the opposition having a 'clean' contest. great if we have a clean break from a contest. But when the contest is messy I reckon we will beat any other AFL team.

It's all about dragging the other side out of their comfort zone(set-ups) and forcing them to play in an unfamiliar style of footy...to our Team strengths!
That's been going on for years and years...
Easy to say, hard to do! It's all about having the right combination of variables happening on game day!
When alls said and done I think what it comes down to it we just have one of the things admired by the old timers! A great spine!
A great spine of top players and backed up by top defenders...we are still currently fecking around with our forward structures and players...
Once we have our forwards in place then we'll know the type of footy we'll be playing! Or is it the other way around?!? lol

 

[Dr Tigris]

It's all about dragging the other side out of their comfort zone(set-ups) and forcing them to play in an unfamiliar style of footy...to our Team strengths!
That's been going on for years and years...
Easy to say, hard to do! It's all about having the right combination of variables happening on game day!
When alls said and done I think what it comes down to it we just have one of the things admired by the old timers! A great spine!
A great spine of top players and backed up by top defenders...we are still currently fecking around with our forward structures and players...
Once we have our forwards in place then we'll know the type of footy we'll be playing! Or is it the other way around?!? lol

Yep. And recruited elite repeat printers for years before 2017. We didn't focus on inside mids until recently. We built a team to playa certain way. And look that way has worked.

We did a better version of the 2016 Dogs, but had the team to keep doing it. We're adjusting as other teams have adjusted to what we do, and have copied bits. But when we can turn the game in to that scrappy free for all we win.

And yes as spine of Lynch, JR, Cotch, Astbury, Rance/Grimes is amazing. Add in Dusty etc and we have the core to be multiple premiers. Long way to go, but I like what we've done.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

Yep. And recruited elite repeat printers for years before 2017. We didn't focus on inside mids until recently. We built a team to playa certain way. And look that way has worked.

We did a better version of the 2016 Dogs, but had the team to keep doing it. We're adjusting as other teams have adjusted to what we do, and have copied bits. But when we can turn the game in to that scrappy free for all we win.

And yes as spine of Lynch, JR, Cotch, Astbury, Rance/Grimes is amazing. Add in Dusty etc and we have the core to be multiple premiers. Long way to go, but I like what we've done.

So many variables have peaked with this 2017 GF...the Coach and players! plus the assist coaches! Balmey! Fitness Guy! Gale and Peggy! The good Recruiting even now with Stack and Marlion! And those draft picks! Membership! That lady meditation Guru! Brownlow wins by Cotch and Dusty! Coleman by JR! Reserves top for two years now! Rance/Higgo to come back in 2010! We learnt a few things about the 2018 PF loss and now we are steaming home towards the Finals after a horrendous injury run! Everything Richmond touches at the moment is Golden! (except for the free kick count!)
And getting Cut Lunch! What a time to be alive!

 

[RunningBounce]

I mean we won a GF with a tactic of moving that footy forward as fast as...knock -on's, tap on's, kick along the ground, punch/fist the ball forward...don't pick the footy up just move it on..I mean what sort of contested possessions are those?!?

Lol, believe it or not, Champion Data record these as a "contested knock-on", but only if it's to a teammate's advantage. So they do count as CPs.

 

[Bazzar]

Some CH Data explained

BAULK

Using deception as the ball carrier to beat an opponent, by sidestepping or feigning disposal.

BEHIND

A minor score, as judged by the goal umpire. Behinds are worth one point to a team's total score.

BEHIND ASSIST

Creating a behind by getting the ball to a teammate either via a disposal, knock-on, ground kick or hit-out, or by winning a free kick before the advantage is paid to the goal scorer.

BLOCK

Effectively shepherding an opponent out of a contest to the benefit of a teammate.

BROKEN TACKLE

Evading a tackle attempt by an opponent and legally disposing of the ball in space.

CLANGER HANDBALL

Handballs that give possession directly to the opposition.

CLANGER KICK

Kicks that give possession directly to the opposition.

CLEARANCE

Credited to the player who has the first effective disposal in a chain that clears the stoppage area, or an ineffective kick or clanger kick that clears the stoppage area.

CONTESTED KNOCK ON

Using the hand to knock the ball to a teammate's advantage rather than attempting to take possession from a contested situation.

CONTESTED MARK

When a player takes a mark under physical pressure of an opponent or in a pack.

CONTESTED MARK FROM OPP

CONTESTED MARK FROM TEAM

CONTESTED POSSESSION

A possession which has been won when the ball is in dispute. Includes looseball-gets, hardball-gets, contested marks, gathers from a hit-out and frees for.

CRUMB

A type of groundball-get that is won by a player at ground level after a marking contest. The player must not be involved in the original contest. Crumbing Possessions can be either hardball or looseball-gets.

DISPOSAL

Legally getting rid of the ball, via a handball or kick.

EFFECTIVE DISPOSAL

EFFECTIVE HANDBALL

A handball to a teammate that hits the intended target.

EFFECTIVE KICK

A kick of more than 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better for the team or a kick of less than 40 metres that results in the intended target retaining possession.

FIRST POSSESSION

The initial possession that follows a stoppage, including a looseball-get, hardball-get, intended ball-get (gather), free kick or ground kick.

FREE AGAINST

When an infringement occurs resulting in the opposition receiving a free kick from the umpires.

FREE FOR

When a player is interfered with and is awarded a free kick by the umpires.

GATHER

Possessions that were a result of a teammate deliberately directing the ball in the player's direction, via a hit-out, disposal or knock-on, excluding marks and handball receives. Gathers from a hit-out are contested possessions the rest are uncontested.

GATHER FROM HIT-OUT

A possession gained from a teammate's hit-out to advantage. Counted as a contested possession.

GOAL

A major score, as judged by the goal umpire. Worth six points to a team's total score.

GOAL ASSIST

Creating a goal by getting the ball to a teammate either via a disposal, knock-on, ground kick or hitout, or by winning a free kick before the advantage is paid to the goal scorer.

GROUND BALL GET

Contested possessions won at ground level, excluding free kicks. Groundball gets can either be hardball gets or looseball gets.

GROUND KICK

A deliberate kick without taking possession that gains either significant distance from the point of contact or an uncontested possession for a teammate.

HANDBALL

Disposing of the ball by hand.

HARDBALL GET

A disputed ball at ground level under direct physical pressure or out of a ruck contest, resulting in an opportunity to effect a legal disposal.

HIT-OUT

Knocking the ball out of a ruck contest following a stoppage with clear control, regardless of which side wins the following contest at ground level.

HIT-OUT SHARK

Winning clear possession of the ball from the opposition ruck's hit-out.

HIT-OUT SHARKED

A hit-out that directly results in an opponent's possession.

HIT-OUT TO ADVANTAGE

A hit-out that reaches an intended teammate.

HOLD

Holding the ball in when the umpire calls for a ball up.

INEFFECTIVE GROUND KICK

Ground kicks that are not advantageous to the team, but do not directly turn the ball over to the opposition.

INEFFECTIVE HANDBALL

Handballs that are not advantageous to the team, but do not directly turn the ball over to the opposition.

INEFFECTIVE KICK

Kicks that are not advantageous to the team, but do not directly turn the ball over to the opposition.

INSIDE 50

Moving the ball from the midfield into the forward zone. Excludes multiple entries within the same chain of possession.

INSIDE 50 TARGET

Recorded when a player inside the forward 50 is clearly the sole target of a teammate's kick into the forward 50. The inside 50 target player will be recorded regardless of the outcome of the kick.

KICK

KICK BACKWARDS

KICK-IN

When a player kicks the ball back into play after an opposition behind. Kick-ins are regarded as a function of the team and do not count as kicks, although they are similarly graded for quality.

KICK INSIDE 50

When a player records an inside 50 for his team by kicking the ball from the midfield zone into the forward line.

KICK LONG ADVANTAGE

A long kick that results in an uncontested possession by a teammate. If an error is made by the player 'receiving' the kick, a 'kick long to advantage' is still recorded for the player kicking the ball.

KNOCK ON

When a player uses his hand to knock the ball to a teammate's advantage rather than attempting to take possession within his team's chain of play.

LONG KICK

A kick of more than 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better for the team.

LOOSEBALL GET

A disputed ball at ground level not under direct physical pressure that results in an opportunity to record a legal disposal.

MARK

When a player cleanly catches (is deemed to have controlled the ball for sufficient time) a kicked ball that has travelled more than 15 metres without anyone else touching it or the ball hitting the ground.

MARK FROM OPP KICK

MARK FUMBLED

Mark Fumbled

MARK ON LEAD

An uncontested mark taken after outsprinting an opponent.

MARK PLAY ON

Playing on immediately without retreating behind the mark.

MISSED TACKLES

Attempted tackles that are missed, allowing the ball carrier to break into space.

ONE ON ONE CONTEST DEFENDER

Being isolated in a one-on-one contest as the defender.

ONE ON ONE CONTEST TARGET

Being isolated in a one-on-one contest as the target of the kick.

OUT ON THE FULL

REBOUND 50

Moving the ball from the defensive zone into the midfield.

RECEIVE HANDBALL

An uncontested possession that is the result of a teammate's handball.

RUCK HARDBALL GET

Taking possession of the ball directly out of the ruck.

RUNNING BOUNCE

Touching the ball to the ground, either directly or via a bounce, to allow a player to avoid being penalised for running too far.

SCORE ASSIST

Creating a score by getting the ball to a teammate either via a disposal, knock-on, ground kick or hitout, or by winning a free kick before the advantage is paid to the goal scorer.

SHORT KICK

A kick of less than 40 metres that results in the intended target retaining possession. Does not include kicks that are spoiled by the opposition.

SHOT AT GOAL

SMOTHER

Suppressing an opposition disposal by either changing the trajectory of the ball immediately after the disposal or by blocking the disposal altogether.

SPOIL

Knocking the ball away from a marking contest preventing an opponent from taking a mark.

SPOIL GAINING POSSESSION

Spoils directed straight to a teammate.

SPOIL INEFFECTIVE

Spoils directed straight to an opposition player.

TACKLE

Using physical contact to prevent an opponent in possession of the ball from getting an effective disposal.

UNCONTESTED GATHER

Winning possession of the ball uncontested at ground level.

UNCONTESTED MARK

Marks taken under no physical pressure from an opponent. Includes marks taken on a lead and from opposition kicks.

UNCONTESTED MARK FROM OPP

UNCONTESTED MARK FROM TEAM

UNCONTESTED POSSESSION

Possessions gained whilst under no physical pressure, either from a teammate's disposal or an opposition's clanger kick. Includes handball receives, uncontested marks (including lead marks) and intended ball gets from a disposal.