Analysis Is our forward line functioning better without Cox?

[Nebula1971]

Team selection and list balance are incredibly complex and fluid areas - to do without Cox in the forward line we are missing out on his marking further down the ground - whilst with him up forward he draws the ball sometimes too much than is healthy for structure.

Much of it comes down to opponents and good quality game plans and discipline within the playing group.

Yeah, I’m not disagreeing with any of the above.

We also matched Adelaide in clearances which we’ve struggled with. So yes, there are so many variables.

 

[jonbe54]

Yeah, I’m not disagreeing with any of the above.

We also matched Adelaide in clearances which we’ve struggled with. So yes, there are so many variables.

Yep glad none of it is my responsibility.

Adams being out and Sier's lackluster season have hurt our season badly as can be witness by the current upswing as Adams and Wills have provided the badly needed grunt.

Funnily enough I'm coming around to the belief that we have too many dangerous forwards on the ground at times. They get in each others way and present too much of a choice to those attempting i50 entries.

Everything is a matter of dynamic balance and we have been badly out of whack for much of the season.

Heartening to see things starting to come together at the pointy end of the season though.

 

[NeverWobble]

Coxy may well have kicked a bag himself off that team performance yesterday. Would he be as influential as Roughead has been? I think so. Unlucky he’s missing just when we appear to be clicking.

 

[regpies]

He’s the kind of guy who needs quite a few games to get going. Next time he’s injured he should play 2-3wks of VFL before returning to AFL. Too tough for him to find touch and confidence at AFL level after a stint out.

 

[davywap]

I wouldn't say better just yet, but different. Probably some coincidence behind it. Having said that, there's a bit of 1990 about this forward line, especially when De GOAT and Stevo come back.

Stevo/Daicos
De GOAT/Rowdy
Mihocek/Starcevich
Elliott/Barwick

 

[Thatsmyname]

We moved Darcy's father from key position to ruck and he won a Brownlow with us

Roughy back, Darce forward/ruck

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Best we win the flag this year without him, and then there’ll be a lot less angst surrounding this question for 2020.

 

[Thatsmyname]

Hard to say, you wouldn't think Billy, Varcoe and Thomas suddenly finding form is anything to do with Cox, more likely loading and fitness

 

[doppleganger]

Based on the small sample size of what 2.5 games....yes Roughy playing the Cox role is working. The one thing we can’t ignore is that our backline is also functioning better with Roughy not there!!

The hint there is that our midfield and full ground pressure has lifted in the last three games, WE have controlled the game...so of course your forwards will get on top, and the game becomes easier for defenders when you are on top in the middle.

 

[HFF]

100%.

This is where we have an wonderful opportunity to boost our draft hand this year or next and create cap space by moving him on.

He could add value to another side particularly with more ruck minutes but we will and are going past him.

What he lacks that you can’t teach is competitiveness.

For all of the smarts Roughy lacks playing key forward he will constantly compete and never give up.
This is why Cox will and Is failing because the odd mark he takes doesn’t make up that he doesn’t have that hunger in him to just work like an Roughy or Mihocek.

We simply can’t have an guy his size not having an impact in turn throwing our balance and chemistry out.

 

[Finn Jim]

When Cox was out with his injury earlier in the year, we didn't play especially well without him. In these 2.5 games, 1.5 of which were against the worst teams in the comp, we looked pretty much normal. Only yesterday did we catch lightning in a bottle and blew a potential finals side out of the water. I'm saying we don't know enough yet. Sure we clicked yesterday, but every once in awhile the match-up aligns and good things happen.

That said, Cox had been mostly taking up space in recent weeks, but I feel his whole career his form has followed the Club's very well. If the team has a miserably flat day, he will have a miserably flat day. If the team clicks, he'll get his 3-5 marks and kick 2.1 and all is good. Even his Richmond game was that to some degree. He's not a game-changer, and I think that's what everyone is hoping he turns into. I'm hoping he can put in a lot of work this offseason to make himself more of that kind of player.

I'm going to be a staunch Cox supporter for the most part, because he brought me into watching this sport, but I do think he needs to be better and would not be in our best 22 right now.

 

[Vicky Park]

+ Callum Brown. He is part of this equation too.

But the real test is still to come.

 

[jmac70]

I would love to see Roughie return to the backline, and for Moore to come in as a forward, a position I believe he was born to play.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I would love to see Roughie return to the backline, and for Moore to come in as a forward, a position I believe he was born to play.

Its a very valid option but I'd actually prefer Moore to play back for his marking.

Wherever he plays he'll be better than Roughead but I think Roughy has been good forward despite not being personally productive. He keeps moving and hes taking marks up the ground.

 

[MarkT2]

We are better without Cox. He doesn't take enough marks and his ruckwork is not particularly good. He's has a handful of good games and a lot of ineffective games. If we can add De Goey and Stevens into the forward line then essentially we are swapping Elliot for Cox from the GF forward line of last year. If Moore plays he can ruck and so can Roughead to give Grundy a break. Cox gives nothing defensively. The smaller forward line should help keep the ball in the forward line.

 

[jathanas]

Hard to say, you wouldn't think Billy, Varcoe and Thomas suddenly finding form is anything to do with Cox, more likely loading and fitness

The delivery to the forward line was better than at any stage this year; Billy took advantage of that. Varcoe is creating leads vs playing a defensive forward role. Thomas had his first good game in a while (without being outstanding). Coxy getting injured has changed our dynamic.

 

[manicpie]

In the pressure and grind of a final we won't have the luxury of leaving our smalls one out in the forward 50, Richmond and WC both play a spare man in defence so I think we will be found out a bit. The only way we can win is if we are allowed to play our game plan

 

[neilk]

We are better without Cox. He doesn't take enough marks and his ruckwork is not particularly good. He's has a handful of good games and a lot of ineffective games. If we can add De Goey and Stevens into the forward line then essentially we are swapping Elliot for Cox from the GF forward line of last year. If Moore plays he can ruck and so can Roughead to give Grundy a break. Cox gives nothing defensively. The smaller forward line should help keep the ball in the forward line.

He would be taking more marks than Roughead easily and certainly kicking more goals than Roughead, but the impact on the forward line as a whole I'm not sure about.

 

[sideswipe]

He would be taking more marks than Roughead easily and certainly kicking more goals than Roughead, but the impact on the forward line as a whole I'm not sure about.

I must say I was of a similar opinion about the marks when I read the post you responded to. But then I looked at the stats, Roughead seems to take more marks, but Cox takes more contested. Interestingly, Howe on the radio this morning said that Roughead is so predictable as a fwd. In the end, I don't think it is an either/or question. If Cox was available, he would be playing forward and Roughead back. That is surely a better arrangement than Roughead forward, Madgen back.

So, if he is available, the question isn't Roughead v Cox, it is Madgen v Cox. Cox wins in 2019, but maybe not in 2020?

 

[foreigner]

Based on the small sample size of what 2.5 games....yes Roughy playing the Cox role is working. The one thing we can’t ignore is that our backline is also functioning better with Roughy not there!!

Functioning better? I wouldn't say that. As you correctly say, it is too small a sample size. Sterner tests are yet to come.

 

[DaVe86]

Absolutely impossible to tell based on the last few weeks because our opponents have been really weak.

However, i don't think the question is whether our forward line is performing better or not...because ultimately Roughead is doing the same role, but not hitting the scoreboard.

The real question is how our backline will hold up without Roughead. I think it has held up fine based on our opponents in recent weeks. And it will probably hold up fine next week since Essendon also don't have a monster forward right now due to injuries.

But I have fears sending Magden and Scharenberg up against Riewoldt and Lynch, or Kennedy and Darling, or Hipwood and big O, or Hawkins and Ratugelea etc.

Getting Darcy Moore helps, but I consider him more a CHB as opposed to a FB. The backline looked its best with Roughead at FB and Moore at CHB. So it's a real balancing act from here. i think we'll miss Cox the most in these bigger games when we have to either sacrifice Roughead down back, or alternatively go completely small up forward.

I agree that Moore is the best option to go forward...but I just don't think we are going to risk him hamstrings because playing forward involves a lot more repeat sprints than that of a defender. It's a different level of conditioning. Especially since we play our taller guys higher up the field and try and exploit defenders for speed against Elliott, Stephenson and De Goey. So it's a lot more running for our tall guys.

 

[jathanas]

Absolutely impossible to tell based on the last few weeks because our opponents have been really weak.

However, i don't think the question is whether our forward line is performing better or not...because ultimately Roughead is doing the same role, but not hitting the scoreboard.

The real question is how our backline will hold up without Roughead. I think it has held up fine based on our opponents in recent weeks. And it will probably hold up fine next week since Essendon also don't have a monster forward right now due to injuries.

But I have fears sending Magden and Scharenberg up against Riewoldt and Lynch, or Kennedy and Darling, or Hipwood and big O, or Hawkins and Ratugelea etc.

Getting Darcy Moore helps, but I consider him more a CHB as opposed to a FB. The backline looked its best with Roughead at FB and Moore at CHB. So it's a real balancing act from here. i think we'll miss Cox the most in these bigger games when we have to either sacrifice Roughead down back, or alternatively go completely small up forward.

I agree that Moore is the best option to go forward...but I just don't think we are going to risk him hamstrings because playing forward involves a lot more repeat sprints than that of a defender. It's a different level of conditioning. Especially since we play our taller guys higher up the field and try and exploit defenders for speed against Elliott, Stephenson and De Goey. So it's a lot more running for our tall guys.

That's a bit of a grey area IMO. I agree that Roughy is "roughly" doing the same role, but we've structured the forward line and our delivery differently with Cox out. There's less of the let's slow the game down with keepings off and then bomb it forward to Cox under pressure.

Whether what we did last week will hold up against the Tigers and WC remains to be seen (as you've said) but geez we look so much better.

Overall we're stronger with Cox in as it allows our backline the insurance of Roughy and Darcy if fit, but we should use the last couple of weeks as a blueprint for how to structure going forward.

 

[Gaben]

Without a doubt and it's absolutely no surprise. The main thing is the additional pressure when the ball hits the ground. With Cox loping around like a giraffe our forward pressure goes out the window, Roughy keeps his man honest and doesn't allow that easy outlet.
He also doesn't clog space like Cox has a tendency to do.

 

[swiftdog]

At the moment it is, but then again we’re playing better as well. Maybe the 2 are related.
Is Roughie and Brody a premiership quality forward duo...? Doesn’t seem to have the same fear to it as Jack and Lynch or Darling and Kennedy does but hopefully the other pieces of a our puzzle can be better.

Clearly Roughead/Mihocek aren’t quite Riewoldt/Lynch or Kennedy/Darling level. I’d argue no other club has a trio akin to De Goey/Stephenson/Elliott though. With Elliott finding some form I’m super excited to see what they can deliver come finals time, it gives us the most unpredictable forward-line in the league. Not to mention that WHE, Thomas, Varcoe, Brown and maybe even Wells is a pretty handy supporting cast (I think only 2-3 of these players actually get a game at any one time though).

 

[jackcass]

I'd say our forward line is functioning better off the back of a return to some sort of midfield cohesion rather than as a consequence of the inclusion/exclusion of Cox.