GWS would be ideal since we're both carrying similar injury issues.
That said, we match the Pies ok structure wise.
Would not like to see what Richmond do to us
Essendon, where are they now?
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That said, we match the Pies ok structure wise.
Would not like to see what Richmond do to us
Eh whats your point exactly. Hawks made top 4 H&A of a piss easy draw last year. Then got a top 4 draw and won't play finals. Is your point that a hard draw makes it harder to make finals? Well yeah obviously.
Essendon's draw wasn't that easy anyway, sure not a lot of double ups vs the top teams but also no double ups vs Gold Coast, Carlton or Melbourne who are the bottom 3 teams. We actually had a pretty normal draw.
Essendon may get smashed but we've still improved from last year to even make finals with our injuries this year. Heading in the right direction unlike the Hawks who are still just hoping to get that miracle recruit who will save the day and make them a contender again.
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Totally agree, playing GWS would be some form of devine intervention but forgive me for being slightly negative/realistic about our finals hopes. Although your standard issue bigfooty Hawthorn and North fans are salivating at the thought of us copping a pasting in our elimination final and you can see how excited there getting in their posts, it's actually quite comical and I tend to agree with them.GWS would be ideal since we're both carrying similar injury issues.
That said, we match the Pies ok structure wise.
Would not like to see what Richmond do to us
I so wish I end up eating my words and end up on a 4 day bender around windy hill in 6 weeks but I'm more inclined to think by that stage Dodoro will be well on his way to acquiring another quick fix type operator to feed us hope again for another year.
Laugh all they want. A finals win is just another week in the year unless we're going all the way to the GF.
for now, i just want to see some consistency and improvement throughout
the finals win drought is a troll stat that means zero in the grand scheme of things.
if it helps them feel happy when their teams aren't winning so much, so be it.
Eagles have only played their top 4 contenders once (incl. the pies in 5th who are still a chance for 4th)
Must be pretenders by such logic.
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I never once heard Don Draper say anything like that, and I've watched a whole lot of Mad Men.
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Farcical is how the AFL could construct a draw that allows a team with a percentage of 95% to play finals. If you get hammered by pies, then it is possible there will only be 4 teams in the competition with a worse percentage.
Red Black and Blue
Brownlow Medallist
Yes, and ideally it shouldn't. The AFL have a lot of levers they can pull for equalisation purposes, and some of them a very reasonable. Fiddling the draw to make it easier for weaker teams and harder for stronger teams is probably the dumbest measure they have. It means we often don't get the 8 best teams in the finals which is far from an ideal outcome.
Hawthorn did end up with a relatively easy draw last year, and are a good example of where an apparent tough draw at the start of the year can end up easier as the season unfolds, as we were seen as having a very hard draw for a team that finished 12th the year before. In any case, we hardly took advantage of the easy aspects of our draw. A double up against bottom four Brisbane was completely squandered. Had we won those two games, we'd have finished equal top on points (and probably still gone out in straight sets).
No double ups against the top 4 has certainly helped Essendon finish in the top 8 (although pies could be top 4 by end of this weekend), but I agree it is partly offset by only 1 double against the bottom 4. The draw is mainly a side issue for Essendon, the real issue was that even when their list was in a healthier state, they struggled against the better teams, especially away from Marvel/MCG. Still a way off seriously competing, despite being very active during the last few trade periods. Will need to get some injury prone players right and recruit a few more guns to be a realistic top 4 chance, but that can be said about a big chunk of the competition.
I wouldn't go near the squiggle thread if I was you then. Currently rates Hawthorn as the second best team in the competition. We've already got our miracle recruit for 2020 in the bag. He's the 2018 Brownlow winner.
You really think Essendon have improved this season? You've got some injury excuses now, but what about the poor losses at the start of the year? Unless you beat Pies, you'll have the same number of wins as last year, a much worse percentage, and have so far dodged playing all of the current top 4 twice. Doesn't sound like progress to me.
At the start of the year we had the sixth hardest draw according to Champion Data. Our percentage mostly took a bad hit from the WB game. But I agree in some senses that it's not great regardless.
One of our requests must be two games v hawthorn next season. Annoying how we only got one crack this season. As enjoyable as it was.
Yup, but those pre-season estimates are not really very relevant (unless you're a tinfoil hat wearer who likes to argue the AFL is deliberately tweaking the draw beyond what the equalisation 6-6-6 measures are doing). Hawthorn were also marked as having the 6th hardest draw at the start of last year, and yet we were seen as making top 4 off the back of an easy draw once the season was over, and that assessment was partly fair - it was definitely easier than it looked at the start of the year, even if we did fail to capitalise on playing Brisbane twice.
If you want to assess draw difficulty, you do it based on who you got and how good they were for the season, not who you got and how good they were last season. I don't think Essendon were 'gifted' an easy draw, but I do think they are lucky in terms of avoiding playing any of the best 4 teams twice though. I don't think people would have picked Geelong and Lions as top 4 based on what we saw at the end of 2018, and as such, Essendon's draw ended up being a bit easier than 6th hardest.
Overall I reckon the AFL should stop trying to equalise through the draw. Fans deserve to to see the best teams play finals, and while that mostly happens, it is not uncommon for the teams to make 7th or 8th off the back of an easier draw. I think it is reasonable to say Essendon has done it twice in the last 3 years. The other argument against doing it is that it actually disturbs the other equalisation policies. If your easy draws gives you a couple of extra places up on the ladder compared to where your list is at due to the draw deliberately preferring you to play lower rated teams, then that is a couple of extra places you are bumped down the pecking order in the draft. This year is a little different due to Essendon's injuries, but I think Essendon were more needy of picks than some that finished below them in 2017, especially when you looked at the elimination final result.
At least it won't be in tassie, that's for the minnows.
this is quite a stupid comment
a) how do the AFL predict our %?
b) how do they predict Brisbane will be top 4?
c) how do they predict the top 8 to ensure they all play the top 4 twice to "earn" their place - at which point it's likely 9th through 12th get a leg up and get in via a softer draw and thus your argument still stands in perpetuity.
d) WCE haven't played the top 5 twice and won't until finals
e) % is secondary to wins when it comes to the top 8
We made finals
Win or lose the first one, we made it by winning enough games.
So 2 blowouts killed our %.
Geelong had the 2nd best % in the comp last year - should they have been bumped from 8th to 2nd despite being 3 wins behind?
Bucks in between
I like that you're putting titles on your posts now. A little self deprecating, but fairly accurate.
I'll try to keep this as simple as possible. The AFL creates the draw by making sure lower ranked teams from the previous year are more likely to play each other, and higher ranked teams are more likely to play each other. This means teams in the bottom half of the ladder have an easier draw than teams in the top half (on average of course - clearly teams move about and sometimes the AFLs target of easier draws for lower ranked teams doesn't work out). An easier draw makes it easier to win games, which makes it easier to make finals. Essendon were in the bottom half of the ladder last year. They performed poorly against other top 8 sides, but still manage to make finals.
This is apparently what the AFL wants. According to the AFL on their "fixture explained' page on the AFL web site, "On-field equity is a key component of the AFL’s philosophy. As such, providing all clubs with the opportunity to be successful and contest the Toyota AFL Finals Series is a crucial element of the AFL fixture.". So letting teams that are not really good enough to play finals otherwise, actually play finals is apparently a key goal of the fixture, and Essendon have benefited from this policy in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Mission accomplished AFL.
Red Black and Blue
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Haha Would be funny but I doubt it, too much good will based on last year and stuff out of his control. Though a GWS loss to us in week one of the finals would probably get it done for Cameron as a ground swell of distrust is growing out there.
