balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
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- #51
Would’ve thought round 22 results should go in the round 22 thread???
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Squiggle tips Demons at 77% chance -- What's your tip? -- Team line-ups »
did you pull the trigger? looks like they tightened the odds to $113Following on from NonPhixion 's post.
2018 Rd 23 matches involving two non-finalists:
Port (89) vs Essendon (111) total 200
Carl (61) vs Adel (165) total 226
StK (94) vs North (117) total 211
All 200+
If you were to multi the three relevant matches this week for 190+ in each you would get odds of around $150 by my maths.
Somebody talk me out of it.
I put a small bet on @150 and it now says 'combine legs again 101' so it looks like it has come in quite a bit.did you pull the trigger? looks like they tightened the odds to $113
I put a small bet on @150 and it now says 'combine legs again 101' so it looks like it has come in quite a bit.
Surely the small number of us on this forum who read these threads are not moving the market that much.
I didn't consider port v freo as non finalists but good point because by the start of that game if Bulldogs win, port cant.I multied the three games featuring non finalists TPS 190+ in each.
When I did this last night I got around 150-1 at SB, now the same bet is around 100-1.
Reason for the bet being that the same three matches last year (feat two non finalists) all went 200+.
Of course any of the three games could go way under 190, it is only a speculative bet.
But 150-1 seemed crazy to me last night. Even 100-1 still seems way overs.
It's bruise-free footy season. These dudes are hittin the cans within hours of the game ending.
The strangest thing is the match with the highest odds for 190+ is Port Freo which seems most likely to me to go over.
Nice one but Neds banned me long agoyeh jeez the Swans Saints total is surging its up to 167.5 sportsbet, can still grab 160.5 at neds guys but $1.83... could still midddle some of it later weighted to the over as well seeing the odds are a bit lower at $1.83
I went with Ladbrokes the swans/saints and the Port/Freo games multi over 195.5 @76-1 and over 200.5 @115-1. Good heads up. Fingers crossedlol the odds for all of my total points multis have come right in.
I put a (very) small amount on each of the following (x3 = Syd/Stk, North/Mel, Port/Freo):
170+ (x3) @ 12/1 (now 9/1)
180+ (x3) @ 40/1 (now 27/1)
190+ (x3) @ 150/1 (now 101/1)
200+ (x3) @ 780/1 (now 460/1)
All it will take is some bad weather in one of the three games to ruin the whole lot, but I think this was well worth the nibble.
If any of them get up I owe NonPhixion a slab.
I like your bet and am not trying to take the piss, but it is funny that in Buddy's 100th, against StK, he scored doughnuts.
If Melbourne score over 90 points I will eat my hat.I just backed all teams to score over 90 @ around 550/1...(all teams not playing finals)
I havnt watched replay of his 100th so cant really comment on why but could of been just a rare dirty day for Bud. Interestingly the two Sydney losses where when he was goallessI like your bet and am not trying to take the piss, but it is funny that in Buddy's 100th, against StK, he scored doughnuts.
Melbourne might come out and score 120 just to piss their supporters off even more..If Melbourne score over 90 points I will eat my hat.
lol.Would have thought this was a bet in Rd 21 too but maybe it wasn't as it was a loser?
Nothing due to this time of year, but teams often bounce back after 2 shockers in a row so Ess seems to be of interest.
First time for everythinglol.
I'm posting a late season psychological betting model from round 19 to 23, hence the disclaimer "Nothing due to this time of year". Same reason why I didn't include the Bris win over Geel, WC line vs NM or Rich line vs Coll which were all wins.
But let's see how we go this week:
2u O154.5 Port vs Freo
2u O163.5 Syd vs StK
1.5u O160.5 Syd vs StK
1u O170.5 NM vs Melb
1u O170.5 GC vs GWS
2u Rich -13.5
1.5u Coll -13.5 TB
1.5u Port -16.5
Feel free for you and Targett to post you're bets up.
lol.
I'm posting a late season psychological betting model from round 19 to 23, hence the disclaimer "Nothing due to this time of year". Same reason why I didn't include the Bris win over Geel, WC line vs NM or Rich line vs Coll which were all wins.
But let's see how we go this week:
2u O154.5 Port vs Freo
2u O163.5 Syd vs StK
1.5u O160.5 Syd vs StK
1u O170.5 NM vs Melb
1u O170.5 GC vs GWS
2u Rich -13.5
1.5u Coll -13.5 TB
1.5u Port -16.5
Feel free for you and Targett to post you're bets up.
Who is DumBetDumBet is offering $14 for Sandilands to be the tallest player in round 23. Is he likely to play? The market gets suspended prior to the announcement of teams. They must know something that I don't.