Strategy List Management 101

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caesar88 said:
I would be staggered if we got rid of Hirst. We willingly took him on knowing he was the size of a toothpick. Not sure what more they could’ve been expecting from him in the NEAFL that wouldn’t warrant another year. That we took him tells me the club sees him as a project player.
Click to expand...

Almost certain someone (Harley or the list mangers) said as much. Said we were just getting in ahead of the draft and grabbing him early. Don’t see why he would be delisted unless he has attitude / character flaws they weren’t aware of.
 
swansfan51 said:
Episode 7 - Sydney Swans list review

It has taken almost a year, but here is the promised land. First I'll mention the big elephant in the room that I'm not going to write about: the salary cap. I have no idea what the Swans' current salary cap status is, and neither do you. I wish this wasn't the case, because I would love to analyse and take the numbers apart. But since none of us know the facts, I'm not going to discuss it. I've already stated my hunch in the thread, which is that we have a lot less salary cap space than most think.

Age and experience profile (AKA can we win the premiership?)
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 4

Right now we have 19 players on the list with 50+ games experience, and another 5 players with 25+ games experience. This is a mid-tier experience level in the league. The equal least-experienced premiership teams in AFL history were the Brisbane Lions in 2001 and the Western Bulldogs in 2016 (17 players), and we have higher experience levels than them. A 'standard' premiership squad across the history of the AFL requires 20-23 players with 50+ games experience at the start of the year.

We currently have a mathematically premiership capable list. This does not mean I think we will win the premiership, it just means it isn't completely impossible. We could bring in a number of experienced recruits to join the squad over the trade period. I'm sure this is something the club is considering.

Age profile is far less important than experience profile, and there's a long history of mature-age recruits being able to have a fantastic impact in their first AFL season (unlike 18 year old draftees). I also don't want to get into the Bigfooty nonsense of arguing over whose list is the youngest and therefore the "Bigfooty age champions". But our list is very bottom heavy at the moment with 11 teenagers and another 8 aged 20-21. Many of these players will fail so we should expect a period of sustained high list turnover for the next couple of seasons. The players aged 30+ next year will be Franklin, Kennedy, Rampe, and Sinclair, who all play key positions.

Position valuations and list currency
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 1

Tier 1 - Key Position Forwards

Sydney has deployed a lot of list currency onto key forwards, reflecting their status as by far the most valuable players in the game. The club is currently stocked with Lance Franklin (32), Nick Blakey (19), Sam Reid (27), and Tom McCartin (19). Because key forwards are more valuable than any other position, these players should be developed there as a first priority and only used in other positions if they cannot cut it as key forwards. The club has spent an appropriate amount of focus developing this area over the past 6 years with the recruitment of Franklin and Blakey and this is currently an area of relative strength. More work will be needed to ensure this continues after Franklin's departure.

Tier 2 - Elite midfielders

Unfortunately this area has been almost completely neglected. The club has had 2 of its 4 midfielders leave in recent years, Mitchell to Hawthorn and Hannebery to St Kilda. A 3rd, Josh Kennedy, is now 31 and can no longer carry the rest of the team. The last remaining member is Luke Parker (26) and his support squad is now Hewett (23), Heeney (23), Jones (24), and Florent (21). Those support players will need substantial development.

Currency assessment - where are our most valuable assets?

Key forwards are a solid area, at least for a little while. Key defenders are an area of solid competency with Dane Rampe (excellent but undersized) and Aliir Aliir (excellent intercept player with lesser man-on-man defence) lacking support. These along with elite midfielders are the top 3 tiers of player value.

Unfortunately many of our other assets are being used in low valuation areas. These include Jake Lloyd (small/medium defender), Tom Papley (small forward), Will Hayward (small/medium forward), Callum Mills (small/medium defender). The club has had an unfortunate recent history of spending high draft picks on bits and pieces players or halfback flankers rather than players with excellent midfield potential. I'd like to see a focus on deploying top draft and trade assets only on the top tiers for a little while.

Sydney's top 5 most valuable assets are:

1) Isaac Heeney
2) Luke Parker
3) Nick Blakey
4) 2019 first round pick
5) Oliver Florent

I'd say the next batch in no particular order are Aliir Aliir, Callum Mills, Tom Papley, Zak Jones, Jordan Dawson, and 2020 first round pick.

Lance Franklin has no currency value due to his $4.9m contractual obligation over the next 3 years. If McCartin succeeds as a key forward he will rapidly move towards the very top of the asset tree, as will anyone who can step up as an elite midfielder.

28! Its a magic number
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 2

How are we tracking for our 28 in 2020? The 19 players with 50+ games experience are automatic inclusions. Then there are:

20 - Lewis Melican
21 - Tom McCartin
22 - Ben Ronke
23 - Sam Naismith
24 - Jordan Dawson
25 - Nick Blakey
26 - Colin O'Riordan
27 - James Rowbottom
28 - James Rose

I am comfortable that the club has 28 players for next year. Ideally some recruits will come in and push players like Thurlow, Rose, Naismith, Ronke, Melican out of the 28.

Summary and what should we do?

The Swans list is not as inexperienced as many people think. The average age is dragged down by 11 teenagers and will be dragged down further by the national and rookie drafts, but that is a red herring. There is a solid experienced core of 19 players with 50+ games experience, and they could be joined by experienced recruits as well as McCartin, and maybe even Ronke or Melican next year.

The Swans have not allocated enough attention and resources into building elite midfielders, this is an area of substantial weakness and needs to be addressed. There are some assets that we have paid midfield prices for, that are not yet delivering enough there. These include Callum Mills, Matthew Ling, Zak Jones, and Will Hayward.

In the 2019 offseason the Swans should cut aggressively from the 19(!!!!!!!!) 18-21 years olds on the list, and delist those that will not become above average AFL players. I can think of at least 9. They should then recycle with a large intake of draftees, rinse and repeat.

The Swans' 2019 first round pick, currently #4, is one of their top currency assets and must be either traded for a quality player in Tier 1 (KPF) or 2 (elite midfield), or used to draft a player in one of those categories. It should not under any circumstances be used on another Tier 4-5 asset like a halfback flanker. Later picks or other assets can be used to target ruckmen, key defenders, and small forwards which are areas we could improve (particularly if Papley departs).
Click to expand...
These posts are the best part of the commencement of the offseason
 
caesar88 said:
I would be staggered if we got rid of Hirst. We willingly took him on knowing he was the size of a toothpick. Not sure what more they could’ve been expecting from him in the NEAFL that wouldn’t warrant another year. That we took him tells me the club sees him as a project player.
Click to expand...

Pretty much all rookies are project players.
 

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Bloodied52 said:
Pretty much all rookies are project players.
Click to expand...

Yes, but with Hirst in his current shape they were obviously not gonna be expecting much out of him. Every time I watch the NEAFL he looks like the team's ran out of top-up players and so one of the boys' 12 year old brothers has filled in instead. So you wouldn't draft a player destined for such early adversity unless you thought he'd be worth it in the end, no?
 
caesar88 said:
Yes, but with Hirst in his current shape they were obviously not gonna be expecting much out of him. Every time I watch the NEAFL he looks like the team's ran out of top-up players and so one of the boys' 12 year old brothers has filled in instead. So you wouldn't draft a player destined for such early adversity unless you thought he'd be worth it in the end, no?
Click to expand...

I don't think we draft anyone that we don't think has the potential to make it. At some point you need to make the call about whether they are going to make it, though. Plenty of rookie listed players don't get extended into their second season.

It is a bit weird with the midseason draft, a bunch of these rookies have only been on the list a very short time, they didn't get to do a proper pre-season, so we don't have as much to go on with them. Maybe that means we stick with them... but it has to be said that Hirst has really only had one game where he showed much.
 
caesar88 said:
Yes, but with Hirst in his current shape they were obviously not gonna be expecting much out of him. Every time I watch the NEAFL he looks like the team's ran out of top-up players and so one of the boys' 12 year old brothers has filled in instead. So you wouldn't draft a player destined for such early adversity unless you thought he'd be worth it in the end, no?
Click to expand...

Yep, I get the thinking. However the NEAFL as we all know is not the toughest of comps. The lad turned it on in one game. In the others he has tried hard and run around a lot.

Sure he might put on some additional weight and without losing his speed. However he is not going to grow 10cm. Additional weight is not going to increase his footy IQ and find a bit more of the ball.

The two Academy lads we will most likely pick up in 2020 are both smallish and may struggle to adapt. Campbell as an under ager looked much more of a prospect than the older Hirst in the NEAFL game they played in together.
 
swansfan51 said:
Episode 7 - Sydney Swans list review

It has taken almost a year, but here is the promised land. First I'll mention the big elephant in the room that I'm not going to write about: the salary cap. I have no idea what the Swans' current salary cap status is, and neither do you. I wish this wasn't the case, because I would love to analyse and take the numbers apart. But since none of us know the facts, I'm not going to discuss it. I've already stated my hunch in the thread, which is that we have a lot less salary cap space than most think.

Age and experience profile (AKA can we win the premiership?)
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 4

Right now we have 19 players on the list with 50+ games experience, and another 5 players with 25+ games experience. This is a mid-tier experience level in the league. The equal least-experienced premiership teams in AFL history were the Brisbane Lions in 2001 and the Western Bulldogs in 2016 (17 players), and we have higher experience levels than them. A 'standard' premiership squad across the history of the AFL requires 20-23 players with 50+ games experience at the start of the year.

We currently have a mathematically premiership capable list. This does not mean I think we will win the premiership, it just means it isn't completely impossible. We could bring in a number of experienced recruits to join the squad over the trade period. I'm sure this is something the club is considering.

Age profile is far less important than experience profile, and there's a long history of mature-age recruits being able to have a fantastic impact in their first AFL season (unlike 18 year old draftees). I also don't want to get into the Bigfooty nonsense of arguing over whose list is the youngest and therefore the "Bigfooty age champions". But our list is very bottom heavy at the moment with 11 teenagers and another 8 aged 20-21. Many of these players will fail so we should expect a period of sustained high list turnover for the next couple of seasons. The players aged 30+ next year will be Franklin, Kennedy, Rampe, and Sinclair, who all play key positions.

Position valuations and list currency
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 1

Tier 1 - Key Position Forwards

Sydney has deployed a lot of list currency onto key forwards, reflecting their status as by far the most valuable players in the game. The club is currently stocked with Lance Franklin (32), Nick Blakey (19), Sam Reid (27), and Tom McCartin (19). Because key forwards are more valuable than any other position, these players should be developed there as a first priority and only used in other positions if they cannot cut it as key forwards. The club has spent an appropriate amount of focus developing this area over the past 6 years with the recruitment of Franklin and Blakey and this is currently an area of relative strength. More work will be needed to ensure this continues after Franklin's departure.

Tier 2 - Elite midfielders

Unfortunately this area has been almost completely neglected. The club has had 2 of its 4 midfielders leave in recent years, Mitchell to Hawthorn and Hannebery to St Kilda. A 3rd, Josh Kennedy, is now 31 and can no longer carry the rest of the team. The last remaining member is Luke Parker (26) and his support squad is now Hewett (23), Heeney (23), Jones (24), and Florent (21). Those support players will need substantial development.

Currency assessment - where are our most valuable assets?

Key forwards are a solid area, at least for a little while. Key defenders are an area of solid competency with Dane Rampe (excellent but undersized) and Aliir Aliir (excellent intercept player with lesser man-on-man defence) lacking support. These along with elite midfielders are the top 3 tiers of player value.

Unfortunately many of our other assets are being used in low valuation areas. These include Jake Lloyd (small/medium defender), Tom Papley (small forward), Will Hayward (small/medium forward), Callum Mills (small/medium defender). The club has had an unfortunate recent history of spending high draft picks on bits and pieces players or halfback flankers rather than players with excellent midfield potential. I'd like to see a focus on deploying top draft and trade assets only on the top tiers for a little while.

Sydney's top 5 most valuable assets are:

1) Isaac Heeney
2) Luke Parker
3) Nick Blakey
4) 2019 first round pick
5) Oliver Florent

I'd say the next batch in no particular order are Aliir Aliir, Callum Mills, Tom Papley, Zak Jones, Jordan Dawson, and 2020 first round pick.

Lance Franklin has no currency value due to his $4.9m contractual obligation over the next 3 years. If McCartin succeeds as a key forward he will rapidly move towards the very top of the asset tree, as will anyone who can step up as an elite midfielder.

28! Its a magic number
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 2

How are we tracking for our 28 in 2020? The 19 players with 50+ games experience are automatic inclusions. Then there are:

20 - Lewis Melican
21 - Tom McCartin
22 - Ben Ronke
23 - Sam Naismith
24 - Jordan Dawson
25 - Nick Blakey
26 - Colin O'Riordan
27 - James Rowbottom
28 - James Rose

I am comfortable that the club has 28 players for next year. Ideally some recruits will come in and push players like Thurlow, Rose, Naismith, Ronke, Melican out of the 28.

Summary and what should we do?

The Swans list is not as inexperienced as many people think. The average age is dragged down by 11 teenagers and will be dragged down further by the national and rookie drafts, but that is a red herring. There is a solid experienced core of 19 players with 50+ games experience, and they could be joined by experienced recruits as well as McCartin, and maybe even Ronke or Melican next year.

The Swans have not allocated enough attention and resources into building elite midfielders, this is an area of substantial weakness and needs to be addressed. There are some assets that we have paid midfield prices for, that are not yet delivering enough there. These include Callum Mills, Matthew Ling, Zak Jones, and Will Hayward.

In the 2019 offseason the Swans should cut aggressively from the 19(!!!!!!!!) 18-21 years olds on the list, and delist those that will not become above average AFL players. I can think of at least 9. They should then recycle with a large intake of draftees, rinse and repeat.

The Swans' 2019 first round pick, currently #4, is one of their top currency assets and must be either traded for a quality player in Tier 1 (KPF) or 2 (elite midfield), or used to draft a player in one of those categories. It should not under any circumstances be used on another Tier 4-5 asset like a halfback flanker. Later picks or other assets can be used to target ruckmen, key defenders, and small forwards which are areas we could improve (particularly if Papley departs).
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t get your hopes up on Naismith being pushed out of the 28. My understanding is, injury permitting, the club still very much sees him as the long-term #1 ruck.

Punts said:
Funny that we neglect the midfield and get rid of Mitchell

Sneaky guess is that they Parker is,was better and that Heeney and mills would take control

How things change
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There were legit high hopes around Cunningham
 
Bloodied52 said:
Yep, I get the thinking. However the NEAFL as we all know is not the toughest of comps. The lad turned it on in one game. In the others he has tried hard and run around a lot.

Sure he might put on some additional weight and without losing his speed. However he is not going to grow 10cm. Additional weight is not going to increase his footy IQ and find a bit more of the ball.

The two Academy lads we will most likely pick up in 2020 are both smallish and may struggle to adapt. Campbell as an under ager looked much more of a prospect than the older Hirst in the NEAFL game they played in together.
Click to expand...

There is enough to work with with Hirst. In terms of what he's going to cost us, it's worth the risk. He stays.
 
bird_man said:
G'day guys

It's sounding as though Jones will ask for a trade. I watched him in a couple of games early in the year and was impressed with him as a midfielder. Just wondering why he wasn't playing that role later in the year?
Click to expand...

He was injured. He was used in the midfield when he played
 
The moment we've been waiting for.

Terry Wallace runs the ruler over the Swans list.

Says Swans have eight players (or seven) 23 or under that any list manager would kill for - Heeney, Mills, Papley*, Florence, Dawson, Hayward, Blakey, McCartin (no mention of Aliir, Rowbo).

Thinks Buddy has 30 good games in him , 2 seasons x 15 games.


LINK: https://mde.whooshkaa.com/show/9121/episode/441418.mp3
 
Big Blood said:
Says Swans have eight players (or seven) 23 or under that any list manager would kill for - Heeney, Mills, Papley*, Florence, Dawson, Hayward, Blakey, McCartin (no mention of Aliir).
Click to expand...
No mention of Franklin either (he and Aliir are over 23)
 

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bird_man said:
G'day guys

It's sounding as though Jones will ask for a trade. I watched him in a couple of games early in the year and was impressed with him as a midfielder. Just wondering why he wasn't playing that role later in the year?
Click to expand...


Likely, my occasional colleagues would disagree? BUT...!

He has St Kilda written all over him. (Maybe in tough ink? somewhere?)

He reportedly (I do not know exactly) is on big buck$ 600 ish

GO FOR IT! He can pretend and pirouette and fumble better than most of your mob!
Good kick of he manages to be in the clear.

Cheers

PS Matey , this was the wrong thread to ask... jus' saying!
Good luck nek yeeers!
 
Corpuscles said:
Likely, my occasional colleagues would disagree? BUT...!

He has St Kilda written all over him. (Maybe in tough ink? somewhere?)

He reportedly (I do not know exactly) is on big buck$ 600 ish

GO FOR IT! He can pretend and pirouette and fumble better than most of your mob!
Good kick of he manages to be in the clear.

Cheers

PS Matey , this was the wrong thread to ask... jus' saying!
Good luck nek yeeers!
Click to expand...
Thanks for the reply mate
 
swansfan51 said:
Summary

1) Get tall forwards however you can, hang onto them at all costs.

2) Use your high draft picks on key forwards, midfielders and occasionally key defenders.

3) Don't bother taking key forwards after the 1st round unless they are ruckmen or basketballers, you are just wasting everyone's time.

4) Take some chances on small forwards, and defenders of all sizes late in the draft.

5) Either use late picks on ruckmen or trade (CHEAPLY) for the reserves at other clubs.

I hope this has proven interesting.

EDIT 11/10/15 Thanks to Wayne Swan for his correction of Waite, I have updated the KPF sections.
Click to expand...
Out of curiosity, have any premiership teams over the past decade bucked the trend of these rules?

Of the ones I can think of, West Coast took Darling outside the first round and spent their pick 2 on Nic Nat - a ruck (injured in their premiership but still was a part of the list when they won). Their captain was also an early pick HBF.

Us in 2012, had Reid, Goodes and LRT as our talls and none were high draft picks.

Could be interesting to investigate the composition of premiership teams and try to find if there are any exceptions.
 
Kennedy Parker said:
Out of curiosity, have any premiership teams over the past decade bucked the trend of these rules?

Of the ones I can think of, West Coast took Darling outside the first round and spent their pick 2 on Nic Nat - a ruck (injured in their premiership but still was a part of the list when they won). Their captain was also an early pick HBF.

Us in 2012, had Reid, Goodes and LRT as our talls and none were high draft picks.

Could be interesting to investigate the composition of premiership teams and try to find if there are any exceptions.
Click to expand...
As a first point, these are general rules, which aren't disproved by isolated examples. Chris Grant is not proof that pick 105 has a better track record than pick 4 (even though pick 105 has a far better average games played!).

It is of course not the case that a premiership team needs to do everything perfectly! And more importantly, these are not "rules" for guaranteeing a premiership. The better a team can recruit, the better their chance of having a good enough squad to compete for a premiership. Then you're relying on coaching, leadership, and a spoonful of luck. I'm sure we could find examples of sub-par list management in any recent premiership team if we tried. (For the record, the forward line of West Coast is not lead by Jack Darling but by Josh Kennedy, a pick #4 in a stacked top end draft).

The ruck point is a really easy one. The argument wasn't that no good rucks are picked early, it was that many list managers have butchered first round picks on ruckmen and they have a critical failure rate that is higher than other positions. Naitanui and Grundy are good examples, but then there's Wood, Spaanderman, Laycock, Meesen, Gorringe, Cordy and I could keep going. Those guys aren't average battlers, they were generally complete trash. Knowing that, it is very rarely worth spending first round picks on them. The opportunity to take a freakish key position player over Stephen Hill, Chris Yarran, and Daniel Rich is generally going to be snapped up. Nic Naitanuis are unlikely to be available in many drafts.

LRT was a key defender, not a forward. He wasn't taken particularly late, in fact somebody has already asked me about him earlier in this same thread:
swansfan51 said:
He was taken at #29, that's about average for a key defender. Certainly fits the bracket.
Click to expand...
 
All clubs have their own academies and the Hawks supporters are still sooking about it. Ridiculous.

Sydney's controversial academy is poised to produce another pair of bright prospects at next year's draft, Errol Gulden and Braeden Campbell,

They look brilliant. Campbell looks like Nathan Buckley II.


The academies are just the zone system but with systemic inequality.
Click to expand...
Never heard so much crap in my life.
  1. The Swans and their major sponsor invest several hundred thousand dollars per annum into their academy. How much do the Victorian clubs invest into theirs? SFA.
  2. The Swans have to develop and promote the game in their zone. The clubs with NGA's do no promotion and just pick the eyes out of elite player list in their zone.
  3. The Swans rely more heavily on academy players because the risk of losing players recruited from AFL states, especially Victoria, is significant. The clubs with NGA's from don't.
  4. The Swans find it more difficult trading in players from AFL states. The clubs with NGA's from don't. They gain the added benefit of recruiting homesick players from the northern clubs.
  5. The Swans are severely disadvantaged by the father/son system because all of the father sons need to move out of their state. The Dunkleys being the prime example. This doesn't happen to the clubs with NGA's.
  6. Etc, etc, etc.
The hypocracy of clubs with NGA's and their supporters beggars belief. You sooked about our academy and now that you have your own and you're still sooking. Unbelievable!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Since this thread was created here are the Swans main list changes

IN
Callum Sinclair (trade)
Michael Talia (trade)
Jackson Thurlow (trade)
Ryan Clarke (trade)
Lewis Taylor (trade)
Tom Hickey (trade)
Kaiden Brand (FA)
Sam Gray (FA)
-
Isaac Heeney (Academy)
Callum Mills (Academy)
Nick Blakey (Academy)
-
Jordan Dawson (draft)
Tom Papley (draft)
Oliver Florent (draft)
Will Hayward (draft)
Tom McCartin (draft)
James Rowbottom (draft)
Dylan Stephens (draft)

OUT
Tim Membrey (FA)
Nick Malceski (FA)
Craig Bird (trade, for bidding points)
Lewis Jetta (trade, for Sinclair)
Tom Mitchell (trade, for pick 14)
Toby Nankervis (trade, for pick 46)
Gary Rohan (trade, for pick 62, on-traded for Ryan Clarke)
Dan Hannebery (trade, for pick 39)
Nic Newman (trade, for future draft pick on-traded for Lewis Taylor)
Zak Jones (trade, for pick 32)
Darcy Cameron (trade, for pick 56)
Aliir Aliir (trade, for 2021 2nd)

PLAYERS WE WANTED BUT MISSED (may have forgotten some)
Joe Daniher
Tom Langdon
Darcy Moore
Jesse Hogan
Harley Bennell
Mason Wood
Paddy Ryder*
Joel Patfull*
 
Last edited:
RobbieK said:
Why did you put Mason Wood on the list?

www.afl.com.au

Swans deny interest in Roo Mason Wood

Swans put call in to North to deny report linking club to Mason Wood
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au
Click to expand...
I don't think we wanted Daniher per se. It was more that he wanted us. We tried to open a path for him but we, perhaps naively, assumed Essendon would also respect the wishes of a player.
 
I'm happy with the Swans achievements in this trade period. We didn't do any headline trades but we're not in a premiership window even if we did have the salary cap. We looked to fill a necessary role, to keep within our means and maintain our focus on player development. We found a win/win/win in a three way trade that looked after a crowd favourite player, opened an opportunity for an under-utilised talent while filling a gaping hole in our ruck and giving us more options forward. We also beefed up our draft points to make sure we can land the talent we want in the draft. If we manage to get what we want from the draft I'll give them a big tick.
 
bungee said:
I don't think we wanted Daniher per se. It was more that he wanted us. We tried to open a path for him but we, perhaps naively, assumed Essendon would also respect the wishes of a player.
Click to expand...

Thank goodness Essendon weren't willing we'd have a bloke on a hefty sum that never gets on the field
 
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