Bluemour Discussion Thread XVIII - Please Sir, Can We Have More?

[Blue__Balls]

It's a steep price to pay when compared to pick 12 that Brisbane gave up for Cameron. Really pick 8 on it's own should be enough, maybe + steak knives.

But assuming we can flip one of Sydney's 2nd rounders (maybe + steak knives like pick 39) for Martin, i would be ok with the deal if push came to shove.

It could end up something like:
IN: Papley, Martin, Sydney 2020 2nd rounder, Cameron
OUT: Pick 8, 2020 1st rounder, pick 39

Not the best deal in the world, but OK given Papley's contract, and it will give us immediate improvement next year onwards.

The idea would be we would be enticing enough end of next year to lure a FA with these additions, or we still have our 2021 1st rounder and 2 x 2020 2nd rounders to trade for a gun mid/ruck.

Agree with most of that.

We've gotten so used to SOS blitzing other teams in trades, I reckon we need to dial our expectations back a little from here on out. It's going to be a new age of identifying required players and accepting that sometimes you need to give a little extra to get them across.

The two firsts for Papley, Cameron and two seconds values Papley around Pick 12, which I see as fair. Giving up our future first to get two early seconds and a ruckman looks a reasonable move given our list profile.

And as you said, immediate improvement next year makes us a much more viable prospect for free agents. We'll have money again, but if we can finish top 8 and jag a win in September, we may even have the luxury of being able to make more "reasonable" cash offers rather than the big Hail Mary front-loaded contracts we've been tabling.

 

[TerryWallet]

In my humble opinion Papley is not worth two firsts. That kills any hope of Whitfield or a gun mid this year or next. Likely lose Martin as well.

At this point of our rebuild, we put our assets toward what we can get, not what we might be able to get. imo.

Shiel would have been perfect for us. Coniglio would have been perfect for us. Whitfield would be perfect for us.

Papley is perfect for us. If we can get him, get him. We're ready to rumble. He won't cost us our two firsts. Not with one being Pick 8 and the other also more likely to be around the same. No way.

 

[doormat73]

Papley is perfect for us. If we can get him, get him. We're ready to rumble.

Not without a gun midfielder who can run and deliver the ball to the forwards. This must come first.

 

[Kruezing]

Incorrect on most counts.

8 + 12 for Papley, Cameron, 24 and 26.

Actually values Papley and Cameron around Pick 12, which seems fair.

Gives us 3 second rounders to deal for Martin, which should be plenty. In an even-ish draft it's likely someone will trade us a top 20 pick and change for two mid seconds.

And Whitfield is a Free Agent next year, if we can convince him to come we don't need to trade for him (see Coniglio shenanigans). The trick is convincing him to turn his back on whatever bulls**t the AFL offer him under the table.

On what basis is Cameron considered to have trade value ? ...

 

[cisco82]

That's a damn lot for papley.
Just get Butler instead for waaaayyy less and should still do a job.

And I don't wanna go through the pain like this year of possibly having to give them a top 3 pick next yr if God forbid we bomb again..

Nup, 8 and next yrs second should be more than enough.

Martin swap for casboult and some steak knives.

Keep our 2020 first rounder!!

 

[Matty411]

You lie, he's not a free agent at all

Shit, you're right. I could've sworn he was an URFA. Ah well, still shouldn't cost much as is OOC and on fringe.

 

[ferrisb]

At this point of our rebuild, we put your assets toward what we can get, not what we might be able to get. imo.

Shiel would have been perfect for us. Coniglio would have been perfect for us. Whitfield would be perfect for us.

Papley is perfect for us. If we can get him, get him. We're ready to rumble.

I agree Terry.

I dare say we are at the point where we can consider somewhat overpaying for the missing pieces.

We don't need more kids, we have a few glaring weaknesses in the list and we seem to be approaching the tipping point for everything coming together.

A bit of a rush up the ladder next year and we look a lot more attractive to prospective players. That's when you start attracting the FAs, and not just with the biggest chequebook.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Nope. Not really persuaded by the equivalent points argument, Doesn't apply to the top picks.

A rabid cash released pick uped * will buy Martin and any other decent player or FA.

Whitfield is plan B this year. We need the first picks for bigger fish.

Take Eddie for nothing and let him help develop the next Sheldon, Johnston, Harms from the kids within, Surely, one of Dow, Fisher, Cunningham .... will develop while Eddie takes up the slack for a year or two.

In the alternate, another small forward will surely become available in that time

Just highlighting that it's not "two firsts", it's two pick downgrades, with Cameron coming back as well.

No point having the picks to trade for gun players if those players don't wanna join an "almost" contender.

If bowing out of the first round of this draft and the next gets us Papley, Martin and Cameron (and Stocker if you consider we already grabbed him using some of this year's first rounder value), and those players help us crack the 8 straight away, we're in a good spot.

Target free agents (Whitfield), and if someone we need to trade for becomes available, then make other trades to make it happen.

We'd go into 2020 with two second rounders. We'd also have our 2021 first rounder to offer. Wouldn't be unrealistic to think we could flip the two second rounders for a pick in the mid/late teens, leaving us with two firsts to trade out for a gun mid.

Pull the trigger, SOS.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Not without a gun midfielder who can run and deliver the ball to the forwards. This must come first.

Ok. Say no to Papley because of your criteria, go out to recruit a gun mid, don't get one, lose papley, have no options next season. Then what? You take your chances in this league. Papley is a chance to significantly improve an area we have a desperate need. Simple as that.

 

[crocodilian]

What about if we trade pick 8 for Martin and Brisbane's 1st, then trade that 1st and next years 1st for papley Cameron and 2 2nds

 

[Blue__Balls]

On what basis is Cameron considered to have trade value ? ...

Did I say he did?

Just pointing out that the "maths" would have Papley + Cameron valued at approximately Pick 12. It's not a perfect measure, but it's a reasonable one to help show that "two firsts" is an overly simplified way of looking at it.

 

[Brezsa]

Everyone is assuming the seconds are Sydney’s. 1 or 2 of them may actually be Essendon’s

Carlton -
In Papley, Cameron, Essendon 2nd, Sydney Second
Out 2019 First (Adelaide) 2020 First

Essendon
In Carlton 2019 First (Adelaide), Sydney 2020 First
Out Daniher, 2nd Round Pick

Sydney
In Daniher, Carlton 2020 First
Out Papley, 2020 First, 2nd Round Pick

That’s just to over complicate it more, I’m sure someone will tell me how I’m wrong

 

[Bostonian]

If we can't lure a player worthy of this year's first round I'd be up for trading it to another club for their next season's first rounder so next season we have 2 first rounders to throw at someone potentially worth them.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

At this point of our rebuild, we put your assets toward what we can get, not what we might be able to get. imo.

Shiel would have been perfect for us. Coniglio would have been perfect for us. Whitfield would be perfect for us.

Papley is perfect for us. If we can get him, get him. We're ready to rumble.

Nup. **** that!!! They can keep Papley. If I'm giving up 2 firsts then give me Heeney.......and I want a 2nd Rounder back.

As much as I like Papley, he's worth a Future 1st, nothing more.

 

[TerryWallet]

Not without a gun midfielder who can run and deliver the ball to the forwards. This must come first.

We've tried our darndest. They don't grow on trees. Our own gun mids will be ready soon. Personally i think Coniglio was our last shot at getting the gun mid. We've missed that boat. Now we might have to bide our time for 1 more year just jumping up a few spots and before we know it our core of our own gun young mids will be ready.

Next year is Go Time, but it doesn't mean we have to have a Brisbane year necessarily. We are back in the big time again and our growth will be on our particular schedule. I'm exceptionally comfortable where we stand.

 

[kjr8]

Ok. Say no to Papley because of your criteria, go out to recruit a gun mid, don't get one, lose papley, have no options next season. Then what? You take your chances in this league. Papley is a chance to significantly improve an area we have a desperate need. Simple as that.

Plan is to sook about missed targets; and not improve.

 

[Blue and Blue]

It seems to me that the most overlooked and important aspect of player trading has nothing to with trading.
Nothing to do with pick swaps and player swaps and convoluted permutations of winning the trading game.
Its really as simple as what happens on the field. Winning football matches is the only measuring stick worth thinking about.
In the following season if the team is improved then its a win. Period.

 

[Heres Waite]

Everyone is assuming the seconds are Sydney’s. 1 or 2 of them may actually be Essendon’s

Carlton -
In Papley, Cameron, Essendon 2nd, Sydney Second
Out 2019 First (Adelaide) 2020 First

Essendon
In Carlton 2019 First (Adelaide), Sydney 2020 First
Out Daniher, 2nd Round Pick

Sydney
In Daniher, Carlton 2020 First
Out Papley, 2020 First, 2nd Round Pick

That’s just to over complicate it more, I’m sure someone will tell me how I’m wrong

Dodo’s offer:

Blues give up 2 firsts

Swans give up Papley and two seconds

Essendon gain two firsts, two seconds, and Papley.

Blues get the Christmas card we sent the Bombers last year, with the “from Carlton” crossed and replaced with “from bombers”.

 

[TerryWallet]

Nup. fu** that!!! They can keep Papley. If I'm giving up 2 firsts then give me Heeney.......and I want a 2nd Rounder back.

As much as I like Papley, he's worth a Future 1st, nothing more.

You were so quick off the mark with this, you missed my edit.

On Papley, i would give up more than his actual worth because i think his real worth to us is a lot. I really like him in our team. 24yo Sydney leadership member who can really play, is a real crowd lifter and is just what we need positionally. A high quality small forward/mid.

 

[KohPhi]

[/QUOTE]

Daniher will get to Syd and Papley will get to us

We may have to hand in our 2019 and 2020 firsts with 2 seconds and Cameron in return

Then try and turn the 2 x 2nds into a late first (and a 3rd) and use that late 1st for Martin?
Effectively, Papley, Martin and Cameron and a 3rd for 2 x 1st rounders.

Seems a tad high, but if that's what the club wants then so be it.

 

[Funk]

Any updates on Pav ?

Sent him to the Crows to do some spying before he starts with us.............

 

[Ald Gardiner]

You were so quick off the mark with this, you missed my edit.

On Papley, i would give up more than his actual worth because i think his real worth to us is a lot. I really like him in our team. 24yo Sydney leadership member who can really play, is a real crowd lifter and is just what we need positionally. A high quality small forward/mid.

Don’t watch Swans enough to note evolution of Paps as a mid. So is he an inside or outside mid? Does he pinch hit in there or can play plenty of the game there?

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

A high quality small forward/mid.

I think a lot of people are missing this aspect re: Papley.

He's not just a small forward, I would be entirely comfortable with him playing extended minutes on the ball during games. Very smart player who knows how to bring teammates into it, uses it well, and is strongly built/tough for a small.

Really hope we can get him.

 

[chelseacarlton]

I don’t post much in here but, I’d take Martin and Butler over Papley any day of the year.
Two firsts is waaaaay too much for papley as much as I like the guy.
Martin is silk and bordering on elite in skills all over the ground.
Dan Butler is a massive upgrade on anything we currently have and Gray.
Gimme those 2 and whatever else and load up for next year.
Or we could just do all 3 or gimme gimme a bull to chop out or dig in for Crippa.
But, Martin and Butler and then the inside Mid.
That’s all bases loaded if we include the Darcy Cameron trade.
I’d be stoked with that haul.

 

[Diamond Jim 007]

Then try and turn the 2 x 2nds into a late first (and a 3rd) and use that late 1st for Martin?
Effectively, Papley, Martin and Cameron and a 3rd for 2 x 1st rounders.

Seems a tad high, but if that's what the club wants then so be it.
[/QUOTE]
Trading 2 years first round pick is way too high.
We are not talking about a top 10 player in competition.
Papley is a good forward pocket, who has occasional runs on the ball. Use some sense and keep 1 first round pick. You never know who will become available; otherwise you shut yourselves out of grabbing a gun for 2 years.