List Mgmt. 2019 Trade Thread - Part II

[StCicatriz]

the question to ask is why and how Bruces name has been put out there in trade .... i would guess running into the off season Bruce was seen as a required player for St Kilda, he wasnt on the trade table at all but at some point that changed ... now putting 2 and 2 together its fair to assume a team (most likely the Bulldogs) came to us asking about Bruce .. considering he wasnt on the table beforehand the offer from the other team (Bulldogs) must have been nice enough for the Saints to sit up and take notice of it ... in those circumstances the trade isnt happening for a second rounder , the other team coming with that offer isnt going to strike St Kildas attention ... so if (and its still a big If on what happens) Bruce gets traded its going to be for something St Kilda feels compelled not to say no to...
the differance from the Hill trade is the fact Bruce doesnt want out the club dont want Bruce out so in order to prise Bruce from St Kilda its going to be in St Kildas favour ... if its just a what we call "fair trade" the saints would just keep Bruce cause they dont need to trade for tradings sake

THIS!!! so much this!!!

dogs are in finals contention. they need talls ASAP to try get another flag.

we are in no hurry to let people go. there's no cap constrains or the desperate need for a player.

so really fremantle on hill and us on bruce have the least pressure here.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

Yep - starting point is the modern reality that every player is tradeable for the right deal.

I doubt we will entertain a trade for Bruce unless its mega bonus for us.(ie Pick 12 and Lipinski)

Bruce has played as our sole tall forward this year and to suggest we would trade him for an OK deal on the basis that Battle, King or Ryder could magically fill the gap is fanciful.

Battle is an undersized forward, King hasn't played a game and Ryder is heading to the retirement village.

If it required a deal like that Bruce will be playing at St Kilda. Lipinski is not going to be part of any deal.

 

[StCicatriz]

Probably in the minority, but I'd do pick 14 and Acres for Hill and potentially a late future consolation pick.

i'd do this as well. if we can get a 3rd or 4th coming back it could be sent to Port for Ryder.

 

[Lenny2020]

The reality for us is we need plenty of picks to bring across all of our targets.

Hill, Ryder, Keath and Jones will all be Saints players next year. I think Smith and Tomlinson are a good chance and potentially even Constable.

So we clearly need plenty of picks in every round. Future picks are an option but I have a feeling we’ll try to keep them for the King trade.

 

[StCicatriz]

If it required a deal like that Bruce will be playing at St Kilda. Lipinski is not going to be part of any deal.

i think everyone on here would be stoked to see that outcome

 

[Snailspace13]

I'd be surprised if the Dockers accepted pick 14 for Hill whilst we were still holding onto pick 5 unfortunately.

14 and Acres

 

[malevu]

I know its a simplistic way of looking at it but IF we are to part with all of Pick 5, Steven, Carlisle and Bruce (poss Newnes) then we'll be starting from a long way back. The 'Ins' would have to be significant to not just balance the ledger but hopefully put us in front.

Okay, Hill would be a good start but there would still be significant work to do for us to not end up with a deficit talent wise.

Recruiting Ryder and Tomlinson would hardly count because we can pick them up virtually for nothing, and there will be numerous spots available on our list after the delistings are complete.

 

[cecil]

Your 1st this year and a swap of next year's 2nd rounders?

Probably around the mark. Not sure we'd be keen on risking you finishing above us though. Still think you'll end up with a pick that can make it something like
Bruce and pick 25-35 for Pick 12.

If Martin chooses us then it complicates it I guess

 

[Indie Rock]

I think it's slight overs, and wouldn't happen unless we got absolutely desperate (i.e. didn't pick up any talls and it gets to the last day of the trade period). Among our supporter base, I've found most seem to agree that he's worth anywhere around Pick 17-25. Depending on where we finish and what the Saints other trade targets are, I could see a trade of our 2nd and one of our 3rds (Pick 30 + Pick 41). On draft points, this is roughly Pick 17, but it's split between two picks which allows for on-trading for the Saints other targets. This allows the Saints to turn Bruce into something like Zak Jones + Hugh Greenwood, while allowing the Dogs to retain their 1st (which will most likely be gone for Jack Martin if he does choose us). The issue with us involving our 1st is that we'd likely want something coming back, but Saints don't have a 2nd or 3rd

I think from what I am reading on here, the majority of Saints fans would feel that 17-25, or the equivalent value is fair.

If both clubs are keen on the deal and Bruce is also (sounds like an opportunity for better $$$ for him as he enters the last 3-5 years of his best footy) then I think it gets done no problem.

 

[StCicatriz]

The reality for us is we need plenty of picks to bring across all of our targets.

Hill, Ryder, Keath and Jones will all be Saints players next year. I think Smith and Tomlinson are a good chance and potentially even Constable.

So we clearly need plenty of picks in every round. Future picks are an option but I have a feeling we’ll try to keep them for the King trade.

where do you see their value. for mine its something like:
Hill: Pick 14 + Acres
Ryder: > mid 3rd round
Keath: out of contract. 27 years of age. backman. original a rookie. 3rd round.
Jones: out of contract. inconsistent like acres. 25 years of age. > mid 2nd round.
Tomlinson: Free Agent
Smith: very late pick. DFA.
Constable: contracted. 21 year old. midfielder. starved of opportunity. originally pick 36. so probably still worth what they paid for him. so late 2nd round. early 3rd round. straight swap with Steven?

 

[pebblesofsand]

If it required a deal like that Bruce will be playing at St Kilda. Lipinski is not going to be part of any deal.

And if you don't offer overs, Bruce will be playing at StKilda.

So the simple question is - how much do the Doggies want Bruce?

If you're not prepared to offer overs we can put the whole shebang down to that very very very rare occurrence of a player manager trying to talk up the value of his player so he gets a better deal at his existing club.

Now that never happens does it!!

 

[kernelT]

Bruce into Hill would be a good outcome, Acres really doesn’t need to be used as steak knives... that would be a dumb move.

I’m happy to keep Bruce if we don’t get a very good return, also happy to walk away from Hill if the dockers live up to their trade reputation.

 

[DarkSaint]

I think from what I am reading on here, the majority of Saints fans would feel that 17-25, or the equivalent value is fair.

If both clubs are keen on the deal and Bruce is also (sounds like an opportunity for better $$$ for him as he enters the last 3-5 years of his best footy) then I think it gets done no problem.

I think you have read it wrong.

Bruce is easily worth a pick in the 13-18 Mark depending on how a club values him in that position.

He is a KPF which are rare especially ones that are reliable that can net you 35-50 goals and that can pinch hit in the Ruck whilst doing that.

The dogs first pick is about right. They want the player, the player hasn't requested to leave and he has a contract.

Pretty simple.

 

[mightymalaka]

Forgive my ignorance all....But who the hell is Smith?

 

[lewdogs]

I think just as StTrav mentioned, if Bruce is going to the Dogs we'd already have a good idea of what the offer is pick-wise, and it would be decent. Maybe Dogs first with our 3rd going back.

 

[Virgin Dog]

i actually think he's potentially worth two first rounders. if the first rounders are > 10. so the middle ground might not be what you think it is.

That's a pretty immense price to be paying for a 27-year old key forward that hasn't kicked more than 40 goals in a season since 2015. Don't get me wrong, I really do rate Bruce, but no way does he get traded for that much. A single pick at the end of the first round will be pretty close to his true value, and I'm sure that would be largely consensus between most Saints and Dogs fans. If, in the unlikely scenario, we ended up premiers, our Pick 18 (19 after possible GC priority pick) would probably be handed over in a straight swap with no steak knives either way

 

[bird_man]

You still put a price on it and don't pay more.

He didn't win a premiership for Freo, and it'll take more than Hill to win one for us. If we have to walk away we walk away, and they are stuck with a disgruntled player who doesn't want to be there.
Doing a deal on the basis of what you have is madness.

That's fine, then we walk away.

But going into trade week and expecting to get him for pick 14 isn't going to work, so the question needs to be asked, why are we borthering offering him a contract?

 

[Lenny2020]

where do you see their value. for mine its something like:
Hill: Pick 14 + Acres
Ryder: > mid 3rd round
Keath: out of contract. 27 years of age. backman. original a rookie. 3rd round.
Jones: out of contract. inconsistent like acres. 25 years of age. > mid 2nd round.
Tomlinson: Free Agent
Smith: very late pick. DFA.
Constable: contracted. 21 year old. midfielder. starved of opportunity. originally pick 36. so probably still worth what they paid for him. so late 2nd round. early 3rd round. straight swap with Steven?

I agree with most of those.

Maybe Keath is worth a late second round pick. He was quite good this year. Very reliable.

The Steven deal is a tough one. I don’t know his situation or mental state but if Kelly goes and Higgins stays, the Cats will be very keen and Steven might be able to get back to close to his best with a pre season and change of scenery. Constable probably gets more games next year though, so would he want to leave and would they let him?

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

i'd do this as well. if we can get a 3rd or 4th coming back it could be sent to Port for Ryder.

thats sellin Acres too cheap... again Acres isnt on the outs , he hasnt asked for trade and like it or lump it he is best 22 pretty much every week.. he isnt the sort you just tack on as a sweetener ... im certain we would get more value for Acres trading him on his own then including him as steak knives with a first round for Hill. if Freo need a sweetener then Brandon White, Bailey Rice, Ed Phillips or Robby Young are the names you put up not Blake

 

[Virgin Dog]

where do you see their value. for mine its something like:
Hill: Pick 14 + Acres
Ryder: > mid 3rd round
Keath: out of contract. 27 years of age. backman. original a rookie. 3rd round.
Jones: out of contract. inconsistent like acres. 25 years of age. > mid 2nd round.
Tomlinson: Free Agent
Smith: very late pick. DFA.
Constable: contracted. 21 year old. midfielder. starved of opportunity. originally pick 36. so probably still worth what they paid for him. so late 2nd round. early 3rd round. straight swap with Steven?

There's multiple clubs interested in Keath, I reckon his trade price ends up mid to late second round. A third would be an absolute steal, and I doubt Adelaide would be satisfied.

Freo will probably take the Saints by the balls on a Hill trade. Acres + 14 likely not enough.

Ryder probably costs even less than that, you guys could pick him up dirt cheap.

Jones about right.

Isaac Smith you referring to? If so, he's contracted for next year, so won't be a DFA. Probably a late pick, as you said.

Constable for Steven could happen, maybe there's steak knives thrown around but I'd think that's pretty close to a straight swap

I think just as StTrav mentioned, if Bruce is going to the Dogs we'd already have a good idea of what the offer is pick-wise, and it would be decent. Maybe Dogs first with our 3rd going back.

You guys don't have a 3rd, unless you mean 2020 3rd, or you're trading one in. As it stands, we already have 3 third rounders. If anything, our 1st plus a 3rd in return for Bruce and a 2nd could happen, assuming you guys find a 2nd rounder or give us your 2020

 

[bird_man]

thats sellin Acres too cheap... again Acres isnt on the outs , he hasnt asked for trade and like it or lump it he is best 22 pretty much every week.. he isnt the sort you just tack on as a sweetener ... im certain we would get more value for Acres trading him on his own then including him as steak knives with a first round for Hill. if Freo need a sweetener then Brandon White, Bailey Rice, Ed Phillips or Robby Young are the names you put up not Blake

Actually as much as you rate Acres, he seems exactly the type you throw in as a sweetener. Best 22, yes, but bottom 6, still has some value but not a great deal.

Those other guys are delist material. Young might be the only one on our list due to his contract. A sweetener needs to have some value, you can't just hand over a pile of poo. Otherwise they just say no, give us 5.

 

[Lenny2020]

Zac Smith. Fourth round pick, maybe fifth.

 

[Ducky Tie]

Zac Smith. Fourth round pick, maybe fifth.

Hope this happens. Marshall, Ryder, Smith and a rookie is a nice ruck set up on the list.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

That's a pretty immense price to be paying for a 27-year old key forward that hasn't kicked more than 40 goals in a season since 2015. Don't get me wrong, I really do rate Bruce, but no way does he get traded for that much. A single pick at the end of the first round will be pretty close to his true value, and I'm sure that would be largely consensus between most Saints and Dogs fans. If, in the unlikely scenario, we ended up premiers, our Pick 18 (19 after possible GC priority pick) would probably be handed over in a straight swap with no steak knives either way

OK if we keep him, i'm fine with that too. We have no pressing need to offload him.

 

[George]

Thread has hit 10,000 replies.

Continue discussion in Part 3 here

List Mgmt. - 2019 Trade Thread - Part III

I get really unhinged in the lead up to trade period. The non irrelevant teams have a name for that time of year 'finals'.

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