AFL 2019 - AFL FINALS Week 1

[Mazza1234678]

Dons line is too good too pass up

5 of there guns come back and rumors Kennedy is not 100%

That line will come in surely once teams are named

 

[iluvparis]

Dons line is too good too pass up

5 of there guns come back and rumors Kennedy is not 100%

That line will come in surely once teams are named

Melksham plays for Melbourne these days

 

[iluvparis]

Interesting insight from Betfair

Geelong have a dismal 18-9 cover record in recent years at the MCG as favourites, while Collingwood have covered 12 of their last 18 as underdogs at the 'G. Needless to say, the Analyst is backing Collingwood with the +4.5 point line.

Both covering 67% of the time but Geelong's record is 'dismal' so needless to say you back Collingwood at the line given their superb ability to cover 67% of the time?

 

[GROTTO]

Melksham plays for Melbourne these days

Hmmm Snelling is back for the Dons and thats massive. He has kicked 3 times the number of goals in 2019 compared to his overall career. Its a telling statistic.

 

[targett]

Geelong have played 10 games since the bye
Playing 2 x Top 8 sides
Lost both
5 wins, 5 losses
All 5 wins against bottom 8 sides.

 

[targett]

During Scott's nine-year reign as coach, Geelong has lurched to a pitiful 1-11 record after a week off.
This comprises nine straight losses following mid-season breaks and a 1-2 result after pre-finals byes.
Their lone win in this post-bye blooper reel was by two points over Hawthorn in their 2016 qualifying final – and that only materialised after Hawks star Isaac Smith missed a set shot after the siren.

 

[Squall]

Unlikely but if anyone thinks Essendon can win paying $36 for 40+. When west coast have loss this season they have been big margins.

 

[mookieb]

Tigers demolished Freo at Optus when we were going ok and they had their backs to the walls playing port and won that too.

Richmond are champion team imo and their a hardened finals out fit....Tigers experience gets them in to a PF imo.

Brissy were damn lucky to best Geelong in round 22.

Personally,Brisbane are being overhyped.

Yeah I agree with all this.

The wins against Port and Freo on the road were excellent given the personnel they had on the day.

Bris had 2 challenges in the last 3 weeks and Geel outplayed them for most of the match and they struggled against Rich.

Checked their games during their streak and most of them saw Cameron kicking a bag. If Grimes shuts him down again just can't see Bris kicking a winning score.

I'll also have a unit of Coll at the line against a Geel team that struggled the 2nd half of the season and are terrible after the bye. Couple of units on the unders with plenty of rain about.

I'll leave the WC game, but a lean towards Ess with their gun inclusions.

Also can't touch GWS vs WB. GWS have been terrible but get a massive infusion of talent vs WB who were on fire, but might have lost a bit of momentum after the break.

 

[NonPhixion]

Dom Sheed AGS @2.60 B365
Covered 11/22, <2 everywhere else

 

[karaoke]

Langford AGS - $2.60 b365 (10/17)
Also <$2 elsewhere

 

[Jammer]

I don’t mind the Cats
Thought their last 3 weeks have been back to close to their best
( Outplayed Bris in 27 degree heat
and were a bit stiff in that loss )

Can I argue they beat pies off a Bye in round 1 ?

I’ll back them if they drift to $1.90
Or I can get that in the run during the first qrt

One of my concerns with the Tigers
They will be only the 2nd team this century to go on a 10 game plus win streak culminating in the flag if they go all the way. ( Bris 2001)
As good as they are in their prime an inferior pies jumped them last year and they couldn’t get back.
West Coast a couple of weeks ago got 5 goals up on them.
Thought Bris were pretty decent against them last time with a lot less to play for

Think they are too short this weekend
For a team on the road.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Unlikely but if anyone thinks Essendon can win paying $36 for 40+. When west coast have loss this season they have been big margins.

I got so close with this very bet a few weeks ago, Hawthorn broke my heart, it is still in pieces on my lounge room floor.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I've warmed towards Essendon.

Why is the draw at $81 on SB? Normally around $50.

Are draws less common in finals? If anything it would seem more likely to me...

 

[iluvparis]

I've warmed towards Essendon.

Why is the draw at $81 on SB? Normally around $50.

Are draws less common in finals? If anything it would seem more likely to me...

I think the draw starts longer in one-sided games.

 

[GROTTO]

I got so close with this very bet a few weeks ago, Hawthorn broke my heart, it is still in pieces on my lounge room floor.

Solid respect for that call. It may have not gotten up, but it was damn close.

 

[GROTTO]

I think the draw starts longer in one-sided games.

Wouldnt surprise me if the draw will start especially a bit shorter after W1 in the remaining games.

I think from memory one grand final, I saw the draw around ~$30

 

[demon_fanatic]

Haha sportsbet you can bet on crowd size I took under 59,600 $1.88 for a laugh hoping a few don't show up on a school night lolll.. anyone got an actual good prediction on this,? I can't be bothered going through their crowds each week,did see it was 55ish v Hawks edit: I took a look didn't reach 59,000 in home derby or vs pies so put a little on under 59 at $5

 

[benji21]

Haha sportsbet you can bet on crowd size I took under 59,600 $1.88 for a laugh hoping a few don't show up on a school night lolll.. anyone got an actual good prediction on this,? I can't be bothered going through their crowds each week,did see it was 55ish v Hawks edit: I took a look didn't reach 59,000 in home derby or vs pies so put a little on under 59 at $5

Only had 2 finals games v melb and pies. both around the 59,600 mark.
Record at the ground 61,000

Edit: Liking the under 59,400 at 3.25.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

These crowd bets are genuinely amusing. Good luck to you guys, if your bets get up you are geniuses.

I will avoid that market because I have never trusted crowd figures.

What looks better for all parties concerned? Higher crowd numbers...

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Tom Hickey AGS @ 2.00
Tom Hickey 2+ @ 6.50
Tom Hickey 3+ @ 26.00

All Sportsbet (also 3.50 into 2.35 on 365 though I'm limited there). Kicked 0, 2 and 1 in three games alongside Naitanui and should spend a bit of time forward again.

 

[demon_fanatic]

These crowd bets are genuinely amusing. Good luck to you guys, if your bets get up you are geniuses.

I will avoid that market because I have never trusted crowd figures.

What looks better for all parties concerned? Higher crowd numbers...

oh yeh i didnt think of the afl possibly doctoring the crowd up to like 59,800 or something instead of under 59 haha.. oh well hopefully it stays below 59,600

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Has there ever been a first week of finals where all four underdogs won? Or even three of four?

I like the look of all four underdogs this week.

Essendon the most obvious candidate to lose, the other three (Coll / GWS / Bris) should all be favourites in my book.

0.5 U Ess / Coll / GWS / Bris @ 40.25 (SB)
0.5 U Coll / GWS / Bris @ 9.47 (SB)

 

[mouncey2franklin]

GWS had a woeful trot of losses but at the time they were playing without any real forward structure, due to injuries.

Cameron / Himmelberg / Finlayson all back together now.

Richmond bring Nankervis in for Balta. Is this a structural change, going with two rucks? Or was Balta doing some ruckwork?

Either way, Brisbane at home ought to be favs. Will get a charmed run with the umpires, that I'm sure of.

Collingwood's ins are huge, Geelong are duds off a bye. We all know this. Coll should be $1.50 favs at worst.

I could easily see Essendon winning by 40+ or getting belted by 90+. Real funny-money game, this one.

And by that I mean, I have put what I can afford to lose and not feel like a moron on Essendon to win big.

Not expecting to ever see that money again, but you never know. I just pray it is not a draw...

 

[demon_fanatic]

GWS had a woeful trot of losses but at the time they were playing without any real forward structure, due to injuries.

Cameron / Himmelberg / Finlayson all back together now.

Richmond bring Nankervis in for Balta. Is this a structural change, going with two rucks? Or was Balta doing some ruckwork?

Either way, Brisbane at home ought to be favs. Will get a charmed run with the umpires, that I'm sure of.

Collingwood's ins are huge, Geelong are duds off a bye. We all know this. Coll should be $1.50 favs at worst.

I could easily see Essendon winning by 40+ or getting belted by 90+. Real funny-money game, this one.

And by that I mean, I have put what I can afford to lose and not feel like a moron on Essendon to win big.

Not expecting to ever see that money again, but you never know. I just pray it is not a draw...

neds offering $3 brisbane win max bet $20, they are sponsored by neds fairly sure so they always bump up their odds

 

[Robo87]

1u mckernan ags @1.87 b365
1u Sheed ags @2.60 b365
0.5u Brown 2g+ @3.75 sb
0.2u Brown 3g+ @12 sb

1u WC 1-39 @2.10 b365
0.2u Ess 25+ @19 b365 (just incase if Essedon decide to show up tonight.)
1u sgm- WC win, shuey 20+, Yeo 20+, Merrett 25+ @2.25 sb
0.5u sgm- WC 1-39, O157.5, Stringer 2g+ @8 sb