Lies, damn lies, and statistics

[Marc_Remillard]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this thread from demonland but a poster called fr_ap has access to some handy AFL stats and shared some data

The statistical tale of 2019

I am lucky to have a close contact with access to a lot of AFL statistics (the same data set the clubs generally have available to them ). I asked him to do some digging on the Dees' season, in particular looking for anything that would prove useful in helping us all understand where things have ...

demonland.com

Interesting info, most not surprising. The only point I'd make is that if a defender makes a mistake it's more likely to result in the opposition scoring purely because of where they play

 

[DeesFanTheMan]

This great statistical analysis that confirms a bit of what we all thought. TheDarkDwarf thoughts?

 

[Demon bhoy]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this thread from demonland but a poster called fr_ap has access to some handy AFL stats and shared some data

The statistical tale of 2019

I am lucky to have a close contact with access to a lot of AFL statistics (the same data set the clubs generally have available to them ). I asked him to do some digging on the Dees' season, in particular looking for anything that would prove useful in helping us all understand where things have ...

demonland.com

Interesting info, most not surprising. The only point I'd make is that if a defender makes a mistake it's more likely to result in the opposition scoring purely because of where they play

Very interesting statistical analysis regarding Hogan’s effect on the secondary players around him last year

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

I can’t even explain how shocked I am that most of TMac’s success last year came when Hogan was playing. Beyond flabbergasted.

However this doesn’t compare to my surprise that Brayshaw has been played out of position this year.

Truly without stats you would never know either of those two thing.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Unless our midfield flies again like it did at the end of 2018 (except for the whole season) or Weid/Petty go nuclear we won’t make finals next year.

 

[HANDSOLO]

Not sure about the TMAC and Woes conclusion but the rest makes perfect sense

No game plan
Players out of position
Injuries (although honestly I think the effect of this one. Or as great as the other two)

 

[00Stinger]

I was honestly surprised that no one saw the impact that Hogan has on the players around him when he plays.

 

[00Stinger]

Very interesting statistical analysis regarding Hogan’s effect on the secondary players around him last year

yeah but he is a flat track bully and all.............

 

[Demon bhoy]

I was honestly surprised that no one saw the impact that Hogan has on the players around him when he plays.

The worst part is that included our dumb as s**t coach’s and list managers, you don’t get better trading away your most important players

 

[schmuttt]

ALRIGHT

Let’s put this Hogan stuff to bed once and for all.

2017-2017 MFC had a much better record against the top 8 without Jesse than with him. His style of play regressed from the pack busting contested marking animal he was in 2015 to more of a link up player who was better the further up the ground he played. Club certainly took a gamble on Weid being a lot better this year and I’ve got no qualms admitting Hogan would have likely been of more use than Weid in 2019.

HOWEVER

The club (and those of us who had seen him out) knew Hogan didn’t really give two shits about footy, and was injury prone before the serious foot issues flared up last year. You can carry an injury prone player and you can carry a talented player who doesn’t really care but you can’t carry an injury prone CHF who isn’t going to be setting elite standards off the field.

Club moved him on, sure the Weid gamble backfired hard but I think it’s pretty hard Hogan would have made much difference this year anyway considering how s**t we’ve been.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

ALRIGHT

Let’s put this Hogan stuff to bed once and for all.

2017-2017 MFC had a much better record against the top 8 without Jesse than with him. His style of play regressed from the pack busting contested marking animal he was in 2015 to more of a link up player who was better the further up the ground he played. Club certainly took a gamble on Weid being a lot better this year and I’ve got no qualms admitting Hogan would have likely been of more use than Weid in 2019.

HOWEVER

The club (and those of us who had seen him out) knew Hogan didn’t really give two s**ts about footy, and was injury prone before the serious foot issues flared up last year. You can carry an injury prone player and you can carry a talented player who doesn’t really care but you can’t carry an injury prone CHF who isn’t going to be setting elite standards off the field.

Club moved him on, sure the Weid gamble backfired hard but I think it’s pretty hard Hogan would have made much difference this year anyway considering how s**t we’ve been.

He wanted to go back home. We've lost and gain players because of the go home factor, it happens

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

ALRIGHT

Let’s put this Hogan stuff to bed once and for all.

2017-2017 MFC had a much better record against the top 8 without Jesse than with him. His style of play regressed from the pack busting contested marking animal he was in 2015 to more of a link up player who was better the further up the ground he played. Club certainly took a gamble on Weid being a lot better this year and I’ve got no qualms admitting Hogan would have likely been of more use than Weid in 2019.

HOWEVER

The club (and those of us who had seen him out) knew Hogan didn’t really give two s**ts about footy, and was injury prone before the serious foot issues flared up last year. You can carry an injury prone player and you can carry a talented player who doesn’t really care but you can’t carry an injury prone CHF who isn’t going to be setting elite standards off the field.

Club moved him on, sure the Weid gamble backfired hard but I think it’s pretty hard Hogan would have made much difference this year anyway considering how s**t we’ve been.

A lot of people on here were saying that we would be better off without him. You're right that he was always going and I'm glad the club dealt quickly with him, but there's nothing wrong with thinking we'd have finished much higher on the ladder if he'd stayed or if we'd been better coached over the summer to compensate for losing him. We played essentially the same game plan in 2019 as 2018 in spite of losing Hogan and the advent of 6-6-6.

 

[rhaz]

Dangerfield left the crows and they were in a GF 24 months later.
Hawthorn lost Franklin and kept winning GF's.
Dustin Martin finally reached his potential and Richmond have been a powerhouse club ever since, winning a GF

All are examples of stars staying or leaving and having varying impacts on their club. it's ridiculous to pin the failures of our club this year on the departure of Hogan.

 

[Ando727]

Dangerfield left the crows and they were in a GF 24 months later.
Hawthorn lost Franklin and kept winning GF's.
Dustin Martin finally reached his potential and Richmond have been a powerhouse club ever since, winning a GF

All are examples of stars staying or leaving and having varying impacts on their club. it's ridiculous to pin the failures of our club this year on the departure of Hogan.

We probably would have finished 18th if we still had Hogan. He's bad for morale...

 

[Johnny Karate]

The whole Hogan situation isn’t exactly binary and I have sympathy for most perspectives on it. However, it has been done to death and is up there with Israel Folau and crowd booing as the most boring topics that don’t really require hot take 477742563245621 on them.

 

[stEdy]

can we talk about Hogan to CHB again?

 

[stEdy]

I find it rude that we are talking more about the Weid gamble failing rather than the completely rubbish season from Tmac, a much more senior player

 

[Ando727]

I find it rude that we are talking more about the Weid gamble failing rather than the completely rubbish season from Tmac, a much more senior player

It wasn't just Weid who failed, it was the whole damn club. Even the queen is calling it our Annus horribilis...

 

[00Stinger]

I find it rude that we are talking more about the Weid gamble failing rather than the completely rubbish season from Tmac, a much more senior player

If you read the Op on McDonald it points out that lot of his big bags last year were kicked against average to poor opponents (Patrick Ambrose, Jack Carlisle, Rory Thompson, Sam Rowe, Myles Poholke, Jason Johannisen, Matt Scharenberg, Dougal Howard, Jackson Trengove, Josh Jenkins, Tom Barrass, Lachlan Keefe, James Frawley).

I will reserve judgement on TMac for another 12 months but if he has a bad year in 2020 then maybe he just isn't the KPF we thought he could be as he obviously struggles against teams good number 1 defenders

 

[HANDSOLO]

If you read the Op on McDonald it points out that lot of his big bags last year were kicked against average to poor opponents (Patrick Ambrose, Jack Carlisle, Rory Thompson, Sam Rowe, Myles Poholke, Jason Johannisen, Matt Scharenberg, Dougal Howard, Jackson Trengove, Josh Jenkins, Tom Barrass, Lachlan Keefe, James Frawley).

I will reserve judgement on TMac for another 12 months but if he has a bad year in 2020 then maybe he just isn't the KPF we thought he could be as he obviously struggles against teams good number 1 defenders

Fair, but if you read the thread there is also a very good rebuttal to the implication from the statistics that they both benefitted from not having the number 1 and 2 defenders respectively.

Obviously the gun intercept defenders were Still playing for example, I believe the stat is limited in that it ignore lax the way defense is played

Agree with the other lints though, 2019 was a compete team failure, and we should really try and have a game plan if possible

 

[Demon bhoy]

The whole Hogan situation isn’t exactly binary and I have sympathy for most perspectives on it. However, it has been done to death and is up there with Israel Folau and crowd booing as the most boring topics that don’t really require hot take 477742563245621 on them.

The stats don’t lie the club desperately needs an a grade key forward and on all available evidence tmac and weid aren’t capable of filling that roll, tmac is a good second banana while the jury is still very much out on weid.

Trading Hogan is not nearly the biggest issue, the big issue is how and why the coaches and list managers got their evaluation so horribly wrong and then compounded the problem by playing Fritsch in defence for so long, and why after creating such a huge hole they choose to do nothing to rectify the problem when it was clear 12 months ago that tmac and weid had no history of even playing against let alone beating quality no 1 key defenders.

Lots of excuses have been made for both tmac and weid ie s**t mid field poor disposal etc, but Fritsch had no problem kicking goals or taking marks when he was belatedly move forward. The club hoped they could fill the void left by Hogan with a converted CHB and a bloke with 3 good games to his name and that’s ******* incompetent and the above stats indicated that, that’s why it’s being discussed again.

Less to do with Hogan more to do with the club totally ******* last off season

 

[Johnny Karate]

The stats don’t lie the club desperately needs an a grade key forward and on all available evidence tmac and weid aren’t capable of filling that roll, tmac is a good second banana while the jury is still very much out on weid.

Trading Hogan is not nearly the biggest issue, the big issue is how and why the coaches and list managers got their evaluation so horribly wrong and then compounded the problem by playing Fritsch in defence for so long, and why after creating such a huge hole they choose to do nothing to rectify the problem when it was clear 12 months ago that tmac and weid had no history of even playing against let alone beating quality no 1 key defenders.

Lots of excuses have been made for both tmac and weid ie s**t mid field poor disposal etc, but Fritsch had no problem kicking goals or taking marks when he was belatedly move forward. The club hoped they could fill the void left by Hogan with a converted CHB and a bloke with 3 good games to his name and that’s ******* incompetent and the above stats indicated that, that’s why it’s being discussed again.

Less to do with Hogan more to do with the club totally ******* last off season

I broadly agree with the gist of your post. The topics you have raised: ‘are Weid and T Mac good enough?’/‘the need for a key forward/ ‘did Mahoney and co overrate the list?’ are well worth debating.

I was more referring to the boring slanging matches that boil down into simply ‘should’ve kept Hogan’ vs ‘Hogan is s**t’ camps.

 

[00Stinger]

I broadly agree with the gist of your post. The topics you have raised: ‘are Weid and T Mac good enough?’/‘the need for a key forward/ ‘did Mahoney and co overrate the list?’ are well worth debating.

I was more referring to the boring slanging matches that boil down into simply ‘should’ve kept Hogan’ vs ‘Hogan is s**t’ camps.

tbf the slinging matches usually start only once a poster says Hogan was a loss or that May hasn't proven his worth. Any poster who dares to say one of those two things is attacked from all corners

 

[schmuttt]

tbf the slinging matches usually start only once a poster says Hogan was a loss or that May hasn't proven his worth. Any poster who dares to say one of those two things is attacked from all corners

Like all your passive aggressive posts in this thread? Grow up mate, everyone has been immature about this s**t. Lets just move on yeah?

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Like all your passive aggressive posts in this thread? Grow up mate, everyone has been immature about this s**t. Lets just move on yeah?

He has a point though. Generally it's spearheaded by posters like Reek and then the group think mentality kicks into gear and all the sheep follow suit. I remember questioning Goodwin's coaching ability in his first year and being howled down by the usual suspects.