Racing September Daily Punt- RIP Mikaela Claridge & Mel Tyndall

[juice t]

..............

Classic Seppos

They did the same thing to Carl Lewis so he couldn't look like Ben Johnson

 

[HeathySure]

Maybe I should have looked at the form closer.. MJ only a 3 week break. shes a moral. #imadumbarse

 

[iluvparis]

Maybe I should have looked at the form closer.. MJ only a 3 week break. shes a moral. #imadumbarse

Honestly mate I would go and see a doctor

 

[HeathySure]

Honestly mate I would go and see a doctor

ugh typo. 4

 

[iluvparis]

ugh typo. 4

So at 4 she's a moral but 5 she'd be too unfit - seems about as legit a theory as the 10k Cup rule discussion

 

[HeathySure]

So at 4 she's a moral but 5 she'd be too unfit - seems about as legit a theory as the 10k Cup rule discussion

there are statistics that show that horses win more in a certain time frame from when the date they raced before. Thats fact and has held up for decades. You ignore those facts and you will lose in the long run.

 

[iluvparis]

there are statistics that show that horses win more in a certain time frame from when the date they raced before. Thats fact and has held up for decades. You ignore those facts and you will lose in the long run.

What if she raced next Wednesday would that be ok? Or do horses drop off a cliff if they haven't raced within 28 days?

I think you need to watch some European racing to see how made up this myth is.

 

[FallingLiefs]

balmainforever

This week's poll please

More likely to win
Mystic Journey
Arcadia Queen

tough one.

AQ for me.

 

[HeathySure]

What if she raced next Wednesday would that be ok? Or do horses drop off a cliff if they haven't raced within 28 days?

I think you need to watch some European racing to see how made up this myth is.

this is Australia. Could not give a rats rear end about European racing, its actually rubbish racing except for the big meetings and jumping.
Anyway keep doing what your doing. i am sure it works for you....

 

[iluvparis]

tough one.

AQ for me.

See you on the Hustings

#teamMJ

 

[FallingLiefs]

this is Australia. Could not give a rats rear end about European racing, its actually rubbish racing except for the big meetings and jumping.
Anyway keep doing what your doing. i am sure it works for you....

From what i can tell >+200m dist change when faves, drops SR from 34% to 28% and POT from -8% to -29% when between 29-59 days from last start.

thats a big drop.

 

[iluvparis]

this is Australia. Could not give a rats rear end about European racing, its actually rubbish racing except for the big meetings and jumping.
Anyway keep doing what your doing. i am sure it works for you....

This is the kind of intellect I'd expect to see from someone who paid off their house on the punt

Question avoiding Liefzy would be proud of though - if she is a moral off a 4 week break but a lay off a 5 week lay off where does this magical fitness cliff kick in? Can't you see why this seems a little bit questionable?

 

[FallingLiefs]

This is the kind of intellect I'd expect to see from someone who paid off their house on the punt

Question avoiding Liefzy would be proud of though - if she is a moral off a 4 week break but a lay off a 5 week lay off where does this magical fitness cliff kick in? Can't you see why this seems a little bit questionable?

seems to be about 29 days from what i see which is effectively 5 weeks or significant change in grade as saturday to saturday is 28 days.

 

[onebillsdrive]

there are statistics that show that horses win more in a certain time frame from when the date they raced before. Thats fact and has held up for decades. You ignore those facts and you will lose in the long run.

You don't think it's horse dependant

 

[iluvparis]

seems to be about 29 days from what i see which is effectively 5 weeks or significant change in grade as saturday to saturday is 28 days.

What about 28 v 35, all horses, Saturday grade?

 

[iluvparis]

You don't think it's horse dependant

Nope - they are robots - imagine how much Enable would have flogged Winx by if it had been raced every 3 weeks!!!!!

 

[iluvparis]

And if you'd layed Mystic Journey using this strategy so far her in career you'd already be bankrupt.

 

[FallingLiefs]

What about 28 v 35, all horses, Saturday grade?

SR% drops after 28 days. POT goes up interestingly but because larger price obviously

14 days: 31%/-9.8%
21 days: 31%/-9.0%
28 days: 31%/+4.8%
35 days: 27%/-0.1%
42 days: 21%/-59.0%

 

[iluvparis]

SR% drops after 28 days. POT goes up but more indication of the robot's laying them because drop in SR

14 days: 31%/-9.8%
21 days: 31%/-9.0%
28 days: 31%/+4.8%
35 days: 27%/-0.1%
42 days: 21%/-59.0%

Good stats - suggests to me old Heathsy has gone a week or so to early with his cliff theory

 

[HeathySure]

This is the kind of intellect I'd expect to see from someone who paid off their house on the punt

Question avoiding Liefzy would be proud of though - if she is a moral off a 4 week break but a lay off a 5 week lay off where does this magical fitness cliff kick in? Can't you see why this seems a little bit questionable?

My intellect follows racing statistics in Australia because European statistics for Australian racing are 100 percent irrelevant.
Its not questionable at all. Proof is in the stats. Aussie training methods are different and therefore they hold up in Australia.
I have many many rules that have stood the test of time, too many to post here, i might start another thread one day to list them. They may not pick winners but they sure do stop me backing losers and this one works.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Good stats - suggests to me old Heathsy has gone a week or so to early with his cliff theory

sort of.

the same horse at the same price still says 28 days better. It's just the SP indicates "they" lay them incorrectly when they are only slightly inferior at 35 days.

 

[HeathySure]

You don't think it's horse dependant

there are exceptions for sure. I actually think its trainer dependent. Back in the day i would back houlihan stayers and John leek stayers who did this because they consistently train winners like this.

 

[iluvparis]

sort of.

the same horse at the same price still says 28 days better. It's just the SP indicates "they" lay them incorrectly when they are only slightly inferior at 35 days.

I'm not that worried about 27% v 31% to be honest.

 

[HeathySure]

Good stats - suggests to me old Heathsy has gone a week or so to early with his cliff theory

Vot? its price dependent not winning dependent.....

 

[HeathySure]

And if you'd layed Mystic Journey using this strategy so far her in career you'd already be bankrupt.

the only horses i lay are short priced Godolphin horses who keep losing yet keep starting short ....