AFL 2019 - AFL Preliminary Finals

[iluvparis]

 

[NonPhixion]

Rd 21, 2017, Geelong vs Richmond. Hawkins not playing.

Harry Taylor sent forward, kicks 4.2

Paying 101/1 to kick four goals this weekend.

Stranger things have happened.

im on board.
1U 2+ $9.5
0.5U 3+ $46 Sb

 

[mookieb]

I think the highlight of this weeks AFL debacle is Lachie Neale being interviewed at the tribunal by the AFL, then the AFL telling the tribunal to ignore Lachie Neale's evidence because they didn't like it. Why even drag him along?

I really wanted to bet GWS here with Coniglio, Whitfield and Greene in but it's now looking a bit like a foregone conclusion.

 

[GROTTO]

Can any player in the squad be named in the starting 18 (or on the bench) this weekend outside of the named team and emergencies as a late inclusion?

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Anybody else wonder why the Taylor goalscorer odds have gone out so far?

Half the posters on the Geelong board are confident he will be the one to go forward.

And even if he starts back with Henderson forward, if Richmond get on top, Taylor a big chance to 'swing' forward i.e. Scott's Plan B.

What am I missing here?

 

[Robo87]

1u kelly ags @2.45 b365 (covered 16/24)
1u narkle ags @2.45 b365 (3/5)
1u miers ags @1.72 sb (17/24 & averaging almost 3 scoring shots a game in his last 5 games)
2u dusty ags @1.40 b365 (on fire in his last 6 games)

0.5u miers 2g+ @4.50 sb
0.2u miers 3g+ @18 sb

 

[demon_fanatic]

Ian Bobby Hill is $6 SB for 2 or more, will play mainly forward in Greene's role.. at 3.75 b365

 

[iluvparis]

I think the highlight of this weeks AFL debacle is Lachie Neale being interviewed at the tribunal by the AFL, then the AFL telling the tribunal to ignore Lachie Neale's evidence because they didn't like it. Why even drag him along?

I really wanted to bet GWS here with Coniglio, Whitfield and Greene in but it's now looking a bit like a foregone conclusion.

It was a forgone conclusion 2 weeks ago

 

[bluebob1]

Anybody else wonder why the Taylor goalscorer odds have gone out so far?

Half the posters on the Geelong board are confident he will be the one to go forward.

And even if he starts back with Henderson forward, if Richmond get on top, Taylor a big chance to 'swing' forward i.e. Scott's Plan B.

What am I missing here?

Sportsbet seem to think Henderson is starting forward as he is 1.30 ATS whereas Taylor is 2.30 or so, Henderson 2.80 for 2 goals but 9.5 for Taylor. Whereas Bet365 have them priced the same for ATS at 2.45. So go sportbet for taylor and hedge with something on Henderson ATS elsewhere.

 

[bluebob1]

Sportsbet seem to think Henderson is starting forward as he is 1.30 ATS whereas Taylor is 2.30 or so, Henderson 2.80 for 2 goals but 9.5 for Taylor. Whereas Bet365 have them priced the same for ATS at 2.45. So go sportbet for taylor and hedge with something on Henderson ATS elsewhere.

Henderson hasnt kicked a goal in a long time so not sure why they think he is starting forward.

 

[GAsnr]

Henderson hasnt kicked a goal in a long time so not sure why they think he is starting forward.

There also the option of Stanley fwd and Blicavs in the ruck due to moron Chris Scott's masterclass tactics.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Interesting analysis on the Geelong board regarding the game styles of the two teams.

Game Day - Geelong V Richmond: Prelim Final @ MCG Fri 750 pm

Wow, with Dusty and Lynch kicking eight goals each as per Adam Curley and Jon Ralph - this could put 119 in jeopardy 🤔 Complete dicks. Forwards rarely do well against misfits!

www.bigfooty.com

From a biased perspective (a Geelong fan) but worth reading nonetheless. Seems like a fairly solid writeup to me.

Geelong's second half of the season was crap, and many of their own fans complained that they were 'too defensive', and 'moving the ball too slow'.

But this does seem to be the way to beat Richmond: stop them from playing their quick transition game by moving the ball forward slowly.

Almost like it's been a competition full of teams of paper, Richmond are the scissors, and Geelong are the rock.

Easy to forget that Geelong beat Richmond by 67 points earlier in the year.

A long time ago, and the Tigers were missing players, sure, but why such a large margin against Geelong?

0.2U Geel -19.5 @ 7.5
0.2U Geel -38.5 @ 21
0.2U Geel -58.5 @ 81
0.2U Geel -66.5 @ 201

 

[mookieb]

It was a forgone conclusion 2 weeks ago

It's a pity though. Whitfield, Coniglio and Greene missing. Would have loved to see them perform in a big game at the MCG.

 

[iluvparis]

It's a pity though. Whitfield, Coniglio and Greene missing. Would have loved to see them perform in a big game at the MCG.

They did - it was underwhelming - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/2017/142120170923.html

 

[NonPhixion]

Anybody else wonder why the Taylor goalscorer odds have gone out so far?

Half the posters on the Geelong board are confident he will be the one to go forward.

And even if he starts back with Henderson forward, if Richmond get on top, Taylor a big chance to 'swing' forward i.e. Scott's Plan B.

What am I missing here?

tightened back in. seems like sportsbet got played by the team line-up. can cash out the 3+ for over 100% ROI but im a greedy basta*d so ill let it ride. good shout out early in the week cheers.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

tightened back in. seems like sportsbet got played by the team line-up. can cash out the 3+ for over 100% ROI but im a greedy basta*d so ill let it ride. good shout out early in the week cheers.

Lol. You are correct. Come right back in.

Three goals was out to 46s earlier today, now its at 13s.

But these odds are only slightly tighter than when I put my bets on earlier in the week.

Wish I had loaded up once they went out, instead of whingeing on here about why they had gone out.

Oh well. Here's to hoping Harry kicks four. He does that and I'm back in the positive for season 2019.

Which would be amazing given how wreckless I've been this season.

Still on tilt from Hawthorn failing to kick that one final goal against West Coast farkn.

Even three goals from Harry tonight would be enough to make for a very handsome return.

Also hoping for three goals from Miers, who kicked three against Richmond last time, currently paying 17s to do it again.

#pray4harry

#pray4gryan

 

[NonPhixion]

Lol. You are correct. Come right back in.

Three goals was at to 46s earlier today, now its at 13s.

But these odds are only slightly tighter than when I put my bets on earlier in the week.

Wish I had loaded up once they went out, instead of whingeing on here about why they had gone out.

Oh well. Here's to hoping Harry kicks four. He does that and I'm back in the positive for season 2019.

Which would be amazing given how wreckless I've been this season.

Still on tilt from Hawthorn failing to kick that one final goal against West Coast farkn.

Even three goals from Harry tonight would be enough to make for a very handsome return.

Also hoping for three goals from Miers, who kicked three against Richmond last time, currently paying 17s to do it again.

#pray4harry

#pray4gryan

that was pretty unlucky with Hawthorn, ridiculously good call tho. Lets go Harry

 

[redstarforever_]

shouldn’t be too many pts,, under 160.5

 

[happy punter]

Very weird to see a minor premiers such a big underdog in a prelim final. One also could argue they should be a bigger price as well!

 

[Cash is King]

I reckon we got a classic boys

 

[iluvparis]

Sportsbet-TAB arb cashes if you took Richmond with Sports

 

[GROTTO]

Interesting analysis on the Geelong board regarding the game styles of the two teams.

Game Day - Geelong V Richmond: Prelim Final @ MCG Fri 750 pm

Wow, with Dusty and Lynch kicking eight goals each as per Adam Curley and Jon Ralph - this could put 119 in jeopardy 🤔 Complete dicks. Forwards rarely do well against misfits!

www.bigfooty.com

From a biased perspective (a Geelong fan) but worth reading nonetheless. Seems like a fairly solid writeup to me.

Geelong's second half of the season was crap, and many of their own fans complained that they were 'too defensive', and 'moving the ball too slow'.

But this does seem to be the way to beat Richmond: stop them from playing their quick transition game by moving the ball forward slowly.

Almost like it's been a competition full of teams of paper, Richmond are the scissors, and Geelong are the rock.

Easy to forget that Geelong beat Richmond by 67 points earlier in the year.

A long time ago, and the Tigers were missing players, sure, but why such a large margin against Geelong?

0.2U Geel -19.5 @ 7.5
0.2U Geel -38.5 @ 21
0.2U Geel -58.5 @ 81
0.2U Geel -66.5 @ 201

Given the 2nd halves of the Cats in 2019, you had every right to be feeling confident and happy at HT.

Bad luck, but nice punting for value.

 

[Robo87]

1u kelly ags @2.45 b365 (covered 16/24)
1u narkle ags @2.45 b365 (3/5)
1u miers ags @1.72 sb (17/24 & averaging almost 3 scoring shots a game in his last 5 games)
2u dusty ags @1.40 b365 (on fire in his last 6 games)

0.5u miers 2g+ @4.50 sb
0.2u miers 3g+ @18 sb

C'mon Miers! We almost had the clean sweep there.

 

[GROTTO]

C'mon Miers! We almost had the clean sweep there.

Kelly was a great bet, in hindsight felt like decent overs.

 

[adammania9]

Richmond -15.5 was $7.50 at half time. Wanted to have a nibble but decided against it. Fuming.