Analysis “Hawthorn are middle of the road at best” discussion

[Soft as malaxos]

You do realise those stats perfectly support the argument that we would've finished lower without Clarko and his game plan? Clarko's game plan makes it very tough for the opposition to score.

Did the game plan dramatically change from the front to the back half of the season though? I don’t think it did. Obviously it would’ve been tweaked here and there but I thought the playing group general applied it better in the back half of the year. In most of the games in the back half there weren’t lost rotations due to injury either which helped greatly.

 

[Roddy27]

I think we're developing nicely.

 

[Mojo]

I’ll repost this.

View attachment 750691


There was a time when we were middle of the road during the year, but in general we finished the year as a side that is not a middle of the road side at best.

Can't just pick and chose games to strengthen your argument. If we evaluate our 2019 season you take every game into account.

You can certainly mount a case that we'll be better in 2020, however.

 

[cs61]

Think our 22 is strong and competitive. We saw a strong team once Wingard and Scully found their roles and adapted to the Hawthorn way, and Lewis and O'Brien starting to contribute made a huge difference to our structure. If Mitchell can get somewhere back to his best its not a bad position to start with given Worpel has made huge progress.

However, its under stated how rare it is to get a team's best 22 out there, so it comes down to the depth of the squad over a season, and I think that is where we have work to do against other sides. Our depth is not quite there in a number of positions. Morrison hasn't as yet come on as hoped. Cousins at times looks like he has something, and others looks like he's no where near it. If those two could improve 10-15% next season (like Howe has done by showing he can also play in defence) suddenly our depth chart looks a bit different. However, no doubt we should move on and be proactive and aggressive in improving the list in the off-season.

So when we look at players this off season they shouldn't be looked at necessarily as individuals but how they increase our overall squad depth. For instance getting upgrades on Brand/Mira would improve our depth in defence; or upgrades on Cousins to not be our next in line midfielder; or someone to be able to come in and play a forward defensive role as an upgrade on Minchington in our depth chart; all of these moves would make a significant difference over a season. These are important ways to evolve going forward, as sometimes its not how strong your top 6 is but how weak the bottom 6 is that determines top 4 and being able to contend. I also think this is why it was so important for Ceglar not to leave as suddenly that leaves our ruck position very vulnerable if McEvoy goes down. We need to feel as comfortable with our defenders and midfield stocks as we do with our rucks.

I don't think we are middle of the road if all things align for us, but we have some work in the off season to do still when you look at our players from 23-28 on our depth chart. Huge off-season for us coming up in terms of the balance of hitting the draft for young talent and bringing in guys to play a role now.

 

[TylerDurden]

The ladder never lies.

As Tops said, we need to bring in significant talent this off Season and next. We have little depth.

Look at GWS. Williams is 8th in their midfield pecking order and was BOG yesterday in a Prelim. That's the kind of depth we're competing against. Scary.

 

[Lawsy]

'At Best', we are way better than middle of the road.

Someone amongst the BF hawks supporters, whether in the for or against argument here, has posted a table of games verses top 8 and it showed we were at the pointy end of the teams.
At best, we were able to beat the better teams and that is the fundamental argument of the OP.

Yes, we lost some games early in the season that saw us fall short of finals but with all the variables at play for every team, where is all shakes out in the wash, we are better than middle of the road.

Clarko is whiley enough to know that blowing your own trumpet, ala C Scott, will blow up in your face so never talks us up. He'd know we are right in the mix with only Tom coming back into the lineup. Anyone else in addition to Tom that joins the hawks will only help strengthen his assessment of our list, be it low profile Impey/Scrimshaw types or high profile Wingards.

 

[Roddy27]

The ladder never lies.

As Tops said, we need to bring in significant talent this off Season and next. We have little depth.

Look at GWS. Williams is 8th in their midfield pecking order and was BOG yesterday in a Prelim. That's the kind of depth we're competing against. Scary.

I don't know. I seem to remember us beating them twice during the year.

 

[Billyc]

The ladder never lies.

As Tops said, we need to bring in significant talent this off Season and next. We have little depth.

Look at GWS. Williams is 8th in their midfield pecking order and was BOG yesterday in a Prelim. That's the kind of depth we're competing against. Scary.

From the side that just won a prelim against Collingwood at the G, you can add Greene, Whitfield, Coniglio and Ward to their likely round 1 side for next year. For the Tigers, you can Rance. While some here think only Hawthorn suffers injuries, both those clubs managed a lot of injured star players this year (Kelly, Riewoldt, Cotchin missed a lot footy) and may not face the same problems next year. In short, both grand finalists could significantly improve in 2020 without even adding to their lists. Collingwood too.

Improving our list - which we have to do - is only half the battle. The sides above (and below) us won’t sit still. West Coast for example will be adding Tim Kelly.

 

[Davo23]

I don't know. I seem to remember us thrashing them twice during the year.

Fixed it for you!

Yep, there would have been a few clubs breathing easier that the Hawks didn’t make the finals.
It was clear by the end of the year that we were much improved.

Certainly much better than “middle of the road”.

.

 

[eldorado]

I reckon we're middle of the road...at worst

 

[On Topic]

Undisputed middle of the road side this season. We finished 9th ffs - right in the middle! We beat some top 4 sides, we lost to some bottom 4 sides and won/loss to teams in the middle. There really isn't a discussion/arguement to be had here when talking about this season as a whole.

When you don't make finals, you don't get the luxury of isolating the last few games of the year and giving yourself a pat on the back about great you were (ala doggies 2016).

 

[HODGEYROAD]

I think we can be better than middle of the road, but looking at our list I think 2018 type seasons is the best we can expect for the next couple of campaigns, don't think we have the scope to win the ultimate prize.

 

[TylerDurden]

I don't know. I seem to remember us beating them twice during the year.

Yep. But they're in a GF and we're nowhere. Their list depth carried em all year.

Hard to compare lists, I know, when you don't have a salary cap. But that's another story.

 

[hfc70]

Question - which part of the road are we aiming for ?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Why does thinking that we have a middle of the road team preclude us from being excited about games and the team?

I have no idea what a spider monkey does, but I guess spider monkeys are dictator level petty.

Well clearly if your expectation is that we’re middle of the road(not that great) you shouldn’t really back that up by slagging off other clubs every week while suggesting we will beat them in a preview thread. Yes?

 

[Turly]

Question - which part of the road are we aiming for ?

According to some here....

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

When you don't make finals, you don't get the luxury of isolating the last few games of the year and giving yourself a pat on the back about great you were (ala doggies 2016).

Well actually you do.

It’s called analyzing where you’re at and the context of the seasons results that than just saying “finals = good” and “no finals = bad”.

In 2017 I produced an analysis that suggested that our 12th place finish wasn’t as bad as it looked, as we had shown in the last half of that year that we had turned things around.

We then made top 4 in 2018.


Our end to 2019 and the form we have shown is a good comparison to 2017.

 

[Holy Rioli]

hmmm it really is an interesting discussion or topic this one. At times this year we looked worse than middle of the road if being honest. And our record against bottom 10 sides was abysmal, but then the way we stepped up against most of the top sides this year suggests many clubs were happy to see us miss the 8 as well. The top sides would have been right to be nervous to come up against us in finals, and you don't earn their fear being middle of the road.

So much of the season comes down to chance, injuries (Doggies, Saints, Tom Mitchell, Chad Wingard), umpiring decisions (Doggies, Saints), the FIXture (12 out of 22 matches against top 8 sides most in the AFL), milestone or anniversary matches (North 150 year), media pressure (Melbourne), not your day in front of goal (Brisbane) and if you put all this in perspective only really Richmond had our measure this year.

A lot can change in a preseason, or a month of regular season football but I think we have the foundations in place to have a serious crack at next year.

 

[Rev08]

Yep. But they're in a GF and we're nowhere. Their list depth carried em all year.

Hard to compare lists, I know, when you don't have a salary cap. But that's another story.

The old adage of "we beat the premiers so we must be good" is fairly childish.

We also lost to 17th...

 

[Pessimistic]

We have some mid-20s A and b graders, surrounded by some aging multiple premiership players (who run hot and cold) and some inconsistent youth (ex worpel) supported by very limited quality depth.

When everyone is fit and firing our best 22 can look very very good. But over the course of a season we are not up to scratch as can’t maintain the level due to injuries (depth) and fluctuating form of players such as Gunston/Breust/smith/Stratton/silk etc + youth.

I don’t think Mitchell back will magically make us a top 4 team as doesn’t really solve overall squad depth issue (but helps midfield rotations), structural issues (talls) and will not to cover inconsistencies/aging bodies of senior players. Yes we should expect some natural improvement of our youngsters but we saw from Morrison this year that is far from certain and this could easily be offset by further declines in our 30+ group.

We could finish top 4 or bottom 6 next year and neither would surprise me.

One thing about this, when I knew we were going into 2019 without Mitchell I genuinely thought we would fade in games and at the end of the season or both. So many midfield options on reduced minutes.

We finished the season stronger than we started in that aspect. So one could be oprimistic.

The low point was the melbourne game where they managed to out tough us for 5 minutes to hold on. Melbourne! ( and not the ‘good’ Melbourne)

 

[Crankyhawk]

It’s totally ok, but these posters who claim we’re at best a middle of the road side will be in every preview thread next year talking about how we will/should beat every team in the comp.

Then they will melt in the game day threads.

Tbf many more than just them will melt in GD threads.

 

[Crankyhawk]

The ladder never lies.

As Tops said, we need to bring in significant talent this off Season and next. We have little depth.

Look at GWS. Williams is 8th in their midfield pecking order and was BOG yesterday in a Prelim. That's the kind of depth we're competing against. Scary.

We should target whoever they drop to bring in Green/ Whitfield for midfield depth perhaps?

 

[VandoHawk]

Expected Areas of Improvement:

1. Tommy Mitchell: Mitchell’s ability to win the ball in close will be a massive asset. It will allow Wingard/O’Meara to spread to the outside to damage opponents. Even if he’s not at 100% his work ethic and footballing brain will be a massive asset.

2. Recruits knowing the system: I think most supporters are optimistic about our 2019 recruits especially if they get a full preseason. Wingard exploded in the second half of the year as a midfielder - a season knowing his teammates, an uninterrupted preseason and starting in the guts should see him improve even further. Scully should hopefully regain confidence in his body, and combined with understanding his teammates his delivery should improve. Scrimshaw could be anything - rebounding HBF or tall midfielder.

3. Natural Improvement: You would expect younger players to improve in 2020 after gaining additional exposure. O'Meara included in this group.

Question Marks:

1. Form Slumps: Can Gunston/Bruest address their form slumps? We won't be serious competitors if they continue to stagnate. Will age catch up to guys like Frawley/Hendo/McEvoy/Smith/Burgoyne and cause their outputs to drop?

2. Inconsistency: Can Lewis/O'Brien maintain the form that made them so damaging and made our forwardline function. Can we get Patton fit and firing?

I think we were a middle of the road side in 2019 but can improve dramatically in 2020. But there are definitely unknowns next year that will require luck to fall our way.

 

[flinchfree]

Can't just pick and chose games to strengthen your argument. If we evaluate our 2019 season you take every game into account.

You can certainly mount a case that we'll be better in 2020, however.

Why would we be better?
Our best is the 9th best team in the land, and assuming every other club can be better too, surely that's where the argument ends?
At least that's how I'm reading the argument here.
Can't imagine some 18 year old draft picks and a few trades drastically changing what seems a locked in assessment of our team...

 

[derp de derp]

Why would we be better?
Our best is the 9th best team in the land, and assuming every other club can be better too, surely that's where the argument ends?
At least that's how I'm reading the argument here.
Can't imagine some 18 year old draft picks and a few trades drastically changing what seems a locked in assessment of our team...

We were within 2 goals during the last quarter in all but 3 games this year. Considering we finished last in clearance differential and are guaranteed to get Mitchell back it’s easy to be optimistic. Regardless of age any additional depth added strengthens the team and reduces the need to play players ahead of time like Nash and Hanrahan this year.


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