AFL 2019 Brownlow Medal (after the result bets will get a ban)

[iluvparis]

Ok lads - I don't do my own count and barely watch any games these days so I am riding all of your coat tails with these tonight - good luck everyone with their investment!

Fyfe WIN
Tied winners
Fyfe/Danger/Neale straight out trifecta
Bont - most votes last 8 rounds
Neale most 2 vote games
Taranto - Rd 19 - 3 votes

Break even night turns into a very solid win thanks to Neales BOG in the last round

 

[iluvparis]

ROUND 21

LEADERBOARD

30 N Fyfe (Freo)
25 M Bontempelli (WB)
22 T Kelly (Geel), B Grundy (Coll)
21 L Neale (Bris), P Cripps (Carl)
20 P Dangerfield (Geel)

TJM's count is basically why I was on Fyfe - I remembered he had him well out in front a few rounds out so was surprised that his odds had drifted out so far by the end of the season/start of the count.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

I’m just here for the banana bus meltdowns.

 

[Its not the coach]

Fyfe the biggest umps pet in history?

Nah that goes to Chris Judd.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

There’s Brownlow nights where the bookies clean us up and then there’s Brownlow nights where we clean them up. Think last night was one of the nights we got them, pretty much everything went expected minus a few small plays and Crippa slightly over polling. Bookies incredibly lucky Pendles polled 14 and umps missed worps a few times

 

[bph25]

Pendles has cost me for the third time
One more vote for another successful year but the prick missed in that last round when he was clearly second best.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Got stung a little by G.Ablett Jr vs J.Lyons vs B.Houli trio. Halved ticket value.

Predicted:

• Lyons to win ($2.50) with minimum votes of 10, maximum of 19 and likely 13. Actual 13.
• Ablett to have minimum votes of 4, maximum of 13 and likely of 9. Actual 13.
• Houli to have min votes of 3, maximum of 16 and likely of 9. Actual 11.

Perhaps what made this closer was leadership (Ablett) vs foot soldiers (Houli, Lyons), and/or class (Ablett) vs less-talented (Houli, Lyons).

Someone said earlier "follow the captains". This might be why perceived under-polls (Treloar, Taranto, Prestia, Worpel, M.Crouch, Walters, Sheed, Cunnington) and overpolls (Cripps, Zorko, Fyfe, Parker, Ziebell) occurred. Captains bark instructions at team mates so the umpires might pick up on this.

Only posting this here because no one in Brisbane wants to listen to my post-brownlow analysis. "Aerial Ping-Pong? Hmmpff!".

 

[Sausage Legs]

Break even night turns into a very solid win thanks to Neales BOG in the last round

He was 5.50 into 1.50 to poll the 3 that game. I completely understand he wasn't as influential but when the whole crowd stands up to clap ur 50th touch, the umps notice and it's an easy out for them.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Okay...have gone right through my boards, checked off every game and this is the final wash-up from my round by round count (all published on here if anyone wants to double check)


Of all matches:
19 matches correctly predicted the 3-2-1 in correct order
An additional 30 had the 3-2-1 in differing order.

In total, my modelling correctly predicted the 3 votes in 116 matches. Some of these were at very healthy odds on the "Who gets the 3 votes market". Rory Sloane's BOG's against Sydney and Gold Coast were paying $4.50 and $5 respectively, for example.

The model, however, did overpoll James Worpel, Tim Taranto and Jake Lloyd - I will look over these to see what went wrong there.

The predictor correctly identified that Nat Fyfe would
a) Win outright
b) get the most 3 votes (this was paying $9 on the day of the count)
c) Would win nearly all Handicap markets (Where the top fancies were all handicapped - he was paying $10 at +2 on many books)

It did, however, slightly underpoll Tim Kelly and overpoll Marcus Bontempelli - I will assess both of these to see what analysis proved different. It also underpolled Patrick Cripps but not by much.

Overall, however, I noted some issues in 2018, worked over the summer on correcting these and seem to have ironed some of these out.

Really hope some in here tailed some of these, and really appreciate that so many took the time to post in here, the PM's etc - this is a thread I really enjoy each year and very glad that many emerged winners this year. We'll do it all again in 2020.

Cheers
TJM

 

[burge13]

I think 'damage' is really starting to resonate with umpires. Raw possession numbers used to mean a bit more (I think?) whereas now a guy can easily get 3 votes with 25, a few inside 50's and a goal or 2, even in a loss. Worth considering next year?

I also think the big names get favoured now more than ever. Fyfe polled 2 or 3 in 4 losses didn't he? I can't remember that being the case previously though I'm sure there are examples. 3 votes almost always seemed to go to the winning team

TJM, appreciate the work. Wish I put more stock in your posts now though was on Fyfe (as well as Danger, Bont, Neale so small profit). Wouldn't be too harsh on getting a few players over/underpolled. I get striving for perfection but I wouldn't stress trying to 'correct' them too much. We'll never get in the umpires head & you were pretty spot on overall. Great work!

Lastly, need to do my count after each round (or game). Can't go back and look at stats 6 months later and expect to get good results

Look forward to next year

 

[iluvparis]

He was 5.50 into 1.50 to poll the 3 that game. I completely understand he wasn't as influential but when the whole crowd stands up to clap ur 50th touch, the umps notice and it's an easy out for them.

I was honestly scared the 2 in the Carl-Geel game was going to Cripps to sink me

 

[iluvparis]

I also think the big names get favoured now more than ever. Fyfe polled 2 or 3 in 4 losses didn't he? I can't remember that being the case previously though I'm sure there are examples. 3 votes almost always seemed to go to the winning team

Yup - he polled a 2 I think in that horrid game Against Adelaide when Freo only scored 34 points

 

[burge13]

Yup - he polled a 2 I think in that horrid game Against Adelaide when Freo only scored 34 points

M Crouch 39 in a 3 goal win would have been the 3 previously I'd say.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

I feel your pain, can’t believe he didn’t snag a vote in Rd 23 ahead of Elliott.

This goddammit.. ugh why to ruin everything pendles

 

[iluvparis]

It's quite interesting going back and reading the main board Brownlow thread for the views of non-punters who don't know how the season plays out - so many declaring Cripps as home and hosed 4 rounds in

 

[Benjo_]

Hope everyone had a successful night. The pick your own vote multis were my main source of profit for the night. Hit my two bankers and then 1/2 prevailed that were high in odds. Will definitely keep an eye out for these when they come out next year! Also had $14, $41 and $51 3 vote options for their respective games who all polled 2 - what could've been! Cheers to all who contributed this year and looking forward to going again next year

 

[NYRB]

I think a lesson to be learnt from this Brownlow to me , is reputation is built through seasons and umpires will more likely to give votes to the seasoned campaigners who have gained votes before.

Worpel who is from what I heard was a 2nd year player was an example where unlikely to poll high. For 2020 , I expect guys like Grundy, Bontempelli To possibly improve again if they have seasons like this year.

If I were pricing 2020 season Brownlow would be something along the lines of:

Dangerfield, Fyfe $7
Neale, Cripps $8
Martin $10
Grundy, Tim Kelly $11
Bontempelli $13
Yeo, Treloar $15
Gawn $19
Zorko, MacRae $21
Coniglio $26
Merrett $27
Boak $30
Worpel $46
Gaff, Shuey $60
Whitfield $80
Pendlebury $85
Sheed $90
Luke Parker $95
Dunkley $100
Jeremy Cameron, Shiel $110
Ablett, O’Meara $120
Oliver, Tom Lynch $130
McDonald Tipungwuti $150
Sloane $180
Houli $220
Sam Walsh, Prestia $250
Jack Darling $270
Michael Walters $290

Apologies for not including St Kilda, Roos players as I don’t know their players that well.

 

[Tigers04]

I think a lesson to be learnt from this Brownlow to me , is reputation is built through seasons and umpires will more likely to give votes to the seasoned campaigners who have gained votes before.

Worpel who is from what I heard was a 2nd year player was an example where unlikely to poll high. For 2020 , I expect guys like Grundy, Bontempelli To possibly improve again if they have seasons like this year.

If I were pricing 2020 season Brownlow would be something along the lines of:

Dangerfield, Fyfe $7
Neale, Cripps $8
Martin $10
Grundy, Tim Kelly $11
Bontempelli $13
Yeo, Treloar $15
Gawn $19
Zorko, MacRae $21
Coniglio $26
Merrett $27
Boak $30
Worpel $46
Gaff, Shuey $60
Whitfield $80
Pendlebury $85
Sheed $90
Luke Parker $95
Dunkley $100
Jeremy Cameron, Shiel $110
Ablett, O’Meara $120
Oliver, Tom Lynch $130
McDonald Tipungwuti $150
Sloane $180
Houli $220
Sam Walsh, Prestia $250
Jack Darling $270

Apologies for not including St Kilda, Roos players as I don’t know their players that well.

Tom Mitchell will be up there in top 3-5 also

 

[NYRB]

Tom Mitchell with a full season coming back from injury would be about a $20 shot in my book but I don’t know the full extent of his injury.

 

[FadingTheFave]

I think what sometimes gets overlooked is how competitive it is for votes within some teams. For example Fyfe and Cripps stand out in weaker teams where the votes aren't shared around like they are at GWS, West Coast, Bulldogs etc.

It's going to be pretty hard to bet against Cripps next year baring injury.

 

[stuziman]

Tom Mitchell with a full season coming back from injury would be about a $20 shot in my book but I don’t know the full extent of his injury.

He will have a delayed pre-season, he'd be well off the pace considering how many good players lifted this year.

 

[iluvparis]

Also looking back - he won his medal from Sidebottom and Brayshaw - suggesting the truly elite STARS didn't have great years for whatever reason. I just wonder if he found the perfect year to win his medal and whether a similar style of game he plays will be rewarded to the same extent in the future.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Also looking back - he won his medal from Sidebottom and Brayshaw - suggesting the truly elite STARS didn't have great years for whatever reason. I just wonder if he found the perfect year to win his medal and whether a similar style of game he plays will be rewarded to the same extent in the future.

Worth noting last year only 3 players polled 20 votes or more. This year there were 9 who polled 20 or more

 

[Geeves Train]

Hi All, how did those who played the “who got the 3 votes” go? What was the roughest result anyone was successful with?

I had a good night, mainly because it seemed as if the fancies all polled very strongly and half of my bets were multis with players to get over 15, over 20, etc and it was a great year for this.

Wondering whether Brownlow is getting so much coverage that the “sure things” are good things, only basing that off 2019 but which is fraught with danger!!

 

[iluvparis]

What was the roughest result anyone was successful with?

Fyfe/Danger/Neale - straight out trifecta - paid half of the $41 odds with the Neale/Cripps tie for third