AFL Norm Smith Medal 2019

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Socrates2

Socrates2

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2015
9,041
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AFL Club
Richmond
Always value in this market on the exchanges, I will be having something small on Houli, Grimes, Shai Bolton and Daniel Rioli. Will have a bigger bet on Dusty if I can get 8 to 1.
 
Call me a simpleton but Martin got best on ground in 4 of his last 6 of the regular season, would have won best on in his first final and would have been Top 3 last game.

He’s effectively been best on 5 out of his last 8, is the best player in the best team and is a previous winner!!

$6.50 available at some corps looks a steal for mine!!

I’ll also play Haynes ($34), Cotchin ($26) and De Boar ($81, because if he stops Martin he has to be some sort of a chance) for a bit of fun but I think Martin is the value!!

Martin ($6.50) vs Prestia ($10) or Greene ($11), Martin every day of the week!!
 

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Geeves Train said:
Call me a simpleton but Martin got best on ground in 4 of his last 6 of the regular season, would have won best on in his first final and would have been Top 3 last game.

He’s effectively been best on 5 out of his last 8, is the best player in the best team and is a previous winner!!

$6.50 available at some corps looks a steal for mine!!

I’ll also play Haynes ($34), Cotchin ($26) and De Boar ($81, because if he stops Martin he has to be some sort of a chance) for a bit of fun but I think Martin is the value!!

Martin ($6.50) vs Prestia ($10) or Greene ($11), Martin every day of the week!!
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I’ve layed Martin. Don’t think he will win it tbh. I’m speculating here but there’s a chance that corkie he copped last week could hinder him. Even if it has no affect on him, I rate De Boer to shut him down. Far and away the best tagger right now
 
NonPhixion said:
I’ve layed Martin. Don’t think he will win it tbh. I’m speculating here but there’s a chance that corkie he copped last week could hinder him. Even if it has no affect on him, I rate De Boer to shut him down. Far and away the best tagger right now
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He’s by no means home I just thought $6.50 was value, we will see!!
 
Edwards and Whitfield are value for me. I wouldn't want to back Dusty with the de boer tag coming
 
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Agreed on deBoer in this market - he can attack also and that might stretch Dusty's defensive side. Anywhere between 67 and 81 available on him.

Liking the Giants to cause the upset so that brings Whitfield right into calculations. Smaller goes on Haynes and Greene.
 
Grimes I was hoping would be closer to 46 than 26 however I think he's a chance. It's a media voted award and you can bet the media won't hesitate to talk about Rance being out. Should Grimes stop Jeremy and take a few intercept marks, maybe an important spoil/tackle hype will be there for votes
 
I will make my bets once I know who the judges are.

On first looks, Jeremy Cameron seems the best value. $16 on SB but currently $25 on betfair.

Then there's this:

img_20190923_191926-jpg.751758
 
The form lines are weak, but in Richmond losses this year opposition big forwards have kicked 4+ goals. If GWS are going to win, Cameron will likely need to kick those 5 goals. This year he has kicked 7.5 (W) and 3.4 (L) against Richmond, so he gets shots and he averages 5. Maybe $17 is too short though.

Now I also see that they don't give Norm Smith to forwards - usually the midfielders. Richmond don't usually tag (do they?) so maybe Josh Kelly will run riot so the $12 on Kelly looks good.

"Kelly inside 50 to Cameron... has he got him? Yes he has. Delicious!" -B. McAvaney 28th Sept. 2019
 

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Analysis Paralysis said:
The form lines are weak, but in Richmond losses this year opposition big forwards have kicked 4+ goals. If GWS are going to win, Cameron will likely need to kick those 5 goals. This year he has kicked 7.5 (W) and 3.4 (L) against Richmond, so he gets shots and he averages 5. Maybe $17 is too short though.

Now I also see that they don't give Norm Smith to forwards - usually the midfielders. Richmond don't usually tag (do they?) so maybe Josh Kelly will run riot so the $12 on Kelly looks good.

"Kelly inside 50 to Cameron... has he got him? Yes he has. Delicious!" -B. McAvaney 28th Sept. 2019
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I agree that's why I think himmelburg $67 is worth a nibble, Also like Greene $12 gets plenty of the ball and kicks goals. If I thought Richmond was going to win I'd go Houli.
 
I backed Houli for the NS in 2017 and got burned by the judges.

Burned I tell you.

Never again.

On the other hand, I backed Johannisen the year before and got outrageously lucky via judge incompetence.

JJ was a turnover merchant that day and yet somehow was awarded the NS.

So you have to accept the swings and roundabouts of punting.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
I backed Houli for the NS in 2017 and got burned by the judges.

Burned I tell you.

Never again.

On the other hand, I backed Johannisen the year before and got outrageously lucky via judge incompetence.

JJ was a turnover merchant that day and yet somehow was awarded the NS.

So you have to accept the swings and roundabouts of punting.
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Yes Houli was stiff in 2017 thats for sure. I was lucky in the Pies v Saints Drawn G.F when I was on Lenny Hayes. He was very good that day but Goddard was stiff and should of won it.
 
iluvparis said:
Yup - it evens out - but JJ is still the worst decision I can remember - Picken/Boyd absolutely robbed
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I watched the '16 final with a mate at his place.

Told him before that match that I was on the Doggies ftw and JJ for the NS.

All match we were laughing at JJ and his turnovers. Oh well, I lost my money.

It was truly comical that the guy I put cash on was torching the ball. It seemed like every time he touched it: bang, turnover.

We had a good laugh all afternoon at my expense.

And then the result. I'll never forget the look on my mate's face. I must have looked similar.

He was so happy for me. Good bloke.
 
Its not the coach said:
Probably 3rd best behind Hodge and Mitchell.

Dermot Brereton was a judge though.
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I had him bog at half time easily, completely dominated West Coast and the game was won by half time mainly due to him.

Hodge probably had a better 2nd half but Rioli did it when it mattered
 
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