This will help demonstrate.
This is a sgm.
You would think when U multi them together you would get 1.06 x1.06x1.12 =1.26odds
But no.
sb off me $1.44 instead.
This is what freo leo means by getting a little bit of a bonus in putting them in a multi.
AFL 2019 - Grand Final
- Thread starter targett
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This is a sgm.
You would think when U multi them together you would get 1.06 x1.06x1.12 =1.26odds
But no.
sb off me $1.44 instead.
This is what freo leo means by getting a little bit of a bonus in putting them in a multi.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
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Ok - next question - is there any juice in the SGM multi odds compared to the same odds in the normal market?
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- #53
Online bookmakers love multi bets because it multiplies their profit margin. It’s so successful to bookies that they often allow you to get one out of four legs wrong and get a refund. They wouldn’t offer these generous incentives if it wasn’t in their best interest.
- Thread starter
- #54
Bookmaker profit increases because a multi bet, as the name suggests, multiplies each leg.
a multi bet of $1.90 x $1.90 x $1.90 = $6.85
Or you can choose to see a multi as 102.6% x 102.6% x 102.6% = 108.1%. using 102.6% because each line bet has two options, with 2.6% margin each.
Whether that multi wins or not, you’ve placed a bet into an 8.1% profit margin market for the bookmaker. If you do this consistently over the long term, you’ll lose money. A five leg multi at these percentages creates a 114% market and 14% long term profit for the bookmaker.
a multi bet of $1.90 x $1.90 x $1.90 = $6.85
Or you can choose to see a multi as 102.6% x 102.6% x 102.6% = 108.1%. using 102.6% because each line bet has two options, with 2.6% margin each.
Whether that multi wins or not, you’ve placed a bet into an 8.1% profit margin market for the bookmaker. If you do this consistently over the long term, you’ll lose money. A five leg multi at these percentages creates a 114% market and 14% long term profit for the bookmaker.
Targett explained perfectly.
Another way you can look at it.
Each odds signifies a percentage on how likely it is. Value comes when your percentage chance is higher than the odds suggest.
That 6.85 signifies a 14.5% chance of winning. That's for 3 50/50 bets. Which is a 12.5% chance, So the multi will come up every 8th time.
Only time i recommend multis is if you have a lot of markets that are high in value. For example you've found 12 bets that are $6 when they should be $3. Multi up and do 3/4 folds and if you are right you will clean up. Brownlow is a good example of that.
Another way you can look at it.
Each odds signifies a percentage on how likely it is. Value comes when your percentage chance is higher than the odds suggest.
That 6.85 signifies a 14.5% chance of winning. That's for 3 50/50 bets. Which is a 12.5% chance, So the multi will come up every 8th time.
Only time i recommend multis is if you have a lot of markets that are high in value. For example you've found 12 bets that are $6 when they should be $3. Multi up and do 3/4 folds and if you are right you will clean up. Brownlow is a good example of that.
danielgb123
Team Captain
PointsBet have him for $4 to kick 2 goals and Tigers win.
redstarforever_
80nineninety1
this should be a grind all the way.
gws by 7 points
gws by 7 points
iluvparis
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GWS possibly hang around for a half before Tigers blow them away in the second half - much like the 17 prelim.
Tigers by 45, Prestia Norm, Castagna first goal
Tigers by 45, Prestia Norm, Castagna first goal
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Tend to agree. The last quarter against the Pies burns in the back of my mind.
balmainforever
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For some fun
Grimes O12.5 disposals, GWS +17.5, Caddy ags, Greene 2+ @37.5 Sb
Grimes O12.5 disposals, GWS +17.5, Caddy ags, Greene 2+ @37.5 Sb
The taxing way gws are playing and their last quarters v pies and Brisbane makes Richmond -4.5 4th qtr a great bet, Richmond normally storm home anyway
- Thread starter
- #63
J.Caddy ATGS
2019 11/17 64.7 %
Finals 9/13 69.2%
Odds 2.63 SB - implied probabiliy
38%
2019 11/17 64.7 %
Finals 9/13 69.2%
Odds 2.63 SB - implied probabiliy
38%
Bombers32
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He's playing a far different role now as a two way running winger.
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- #65
He's still kicking sausage rolls and loves a final.To go with stats already provided he is atg 6 from last 8
Bombers32
Debutant
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Ah, ok, 6 from last 8 surprises me but that's good going. Even playing up the ground one thing that he certainly has is a sense of where the goals are.
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Why is this though? With all this talk of bookmaker profit margins with multis it would stand to reason they would allow the Norm Smith as part of a same game multi?
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I’d say just cause it’s a massive multiplier, you could get some really big odds.
- Aug 28, 2010
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True, but I don't see how it's any different to the other big multipliers you can get in same game multis.
Because it is extremely likely that the winning team will also win the norm smith - it's just padding the odds. It's very unlikely Nick Haynes could win the Norm Smith if Richmond win, but if GWS win, your basically getting triple the odds when the NS leg has no real chance of getting up without the other.
Odds adjustments due to dependency as you've pointed out is a factor in heaps of the currently available markets (ie if Jeremy Cameron kicks 5 the odds around GWS winning as a second leg are significantly shorter than SU). I'd say the reason they don't allow Norm Smith in same game multi's is that it's a variable that doesn't exist in most games so developing their pricing algorithms enough to include it as an option just isn't worth their time.
Was about to ask then does this come out?
Can’t do it at the moment
Armesy
Team Captain
One i noticed today was Finlayson to kick 3 is $7.50 at SB. He was $9 yesterday. I think they have this wrong.
Has done 8/22 this season.
$2.80 to kick 2 which he has covered 14/22 this season.
Kicked 5 the last time they played Richmond.
Has done 8/22 this season.
$2.80 to kick 2 which he has covered 14/22 this season.
Kicked 5 the last time they played Richmond.
- Jun 16, 2018
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If Richmond win and he gets >20 possessions and kicks a goal, he'd almost be a monty.Pickett norm smith at $51 why not
Especially if the judging panel is comprised of media men whove never played the game and/or women.
There's a reason I backed JJ in '16 and Houli in '17.
When do they announce the judges?
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