Opinion Which players are worth pick 1?

[MF]

As I suspected, most fans really seem to have an irrational fascination with pick 1. Historically it just doesn’t yield the best player in the draft class, and often not even close.

Consider all the players listed... only one top pick among them. They are best/most valuable players in the league and the vast majority were taken outside the top ten.

It's ridiculous.

Around 50% of the players taken at pick 1 over the last 20 years are B graders.

There'd be at least 20 players I'd give up pick 1 for.

 

[MF]

Lol who the hell is giving up pick 1 for Ben Brown?

I would. Better off with Brown than a Paddy McCartin, Tom Boyd or John Patton.

 

[Bald]

Bontempelli and Cripps. That's all, Fyfe, Martin and J Cameron would be if they were 2-3 years younger.

 

[RUNVS]

It's ridiculous.

Around 50% of the players taken at pick 1 over the last 20 years are B graders.

There'd be at least 20 players I'd give up pick 1 for.

There is usually a reasonably high success rate if pick 1 is a midfielder though. If pick 1 is a key forward then most of the time they are not going to live up to that pick.

 

[Hawk_francais]

There is usually a reasonably high success rate if pick 1 is a midfielder though. If pick 1 is a key forward then most of the time they are not going to live up to that pick.

It’s just so funny that we think a player needs to ‘live up’ to their draft position.

A number one pick is merely a bet on the favourite.

 

[Procrastinator35]

It’s just so funny that we think a player needs to ‘live up’ to their draft position.

A number one pick is merely a bet on the favourite.

The number 1 pick is projected to be the best pick of the crop....You also have the entire crop from which to chose ...Hence it's desirability & significance.

There are currently 5 players who could win you a big final off their own boot, being proven match-winners in that context: Martin, Fyfe, Cripps, Bontempelli & J. Cameron.

It's not rocket science.....That's what you would pay a number 1 pick for.

 

[Oscarman]

Isaac Heeney

 

[jsdsgn]

id honestly only take cripps grundy bont
maybe a few others
wouldnt be taking anyone over age of 26
dangerfield far too old

 

[RUNVS]

id honestly only take cripps grundy bont
maybe a few others
wouldnt be taking anyone over age of 26
dangerfield far too old

To be honest I would not even taken anyone over 24. Pick 1 is a big pick, and you want to be getting someone who can go at least 8 years. At 26 there is always the chance they will last less than 5 years.

 

[jsdsgn]

To be honest I would not even taken anyone over 24. Pick 1 is a big pick, and you want to be getting someone who can go at least 8 years. At 26 there is always the chance they will last less than 5 years.

yeah thats true although you could probably pick a random player from the afl and chances are theyre better than most of the recent number 1s
some absolute shockers in the last decade dating back to Watts

 

[adammania9]

Nearly every single one of those players would go for pick one. Draft picks are still dreadfully overrated - you would take an established star every single day of the week.

Only ones I’m skeptical of are the small forwards C Cameron, Rozee and Gresham and also Blakey because I don’t think he’s that good, Dangerfield because of age and Greene because of injury and suspension issues.

 

[Nugett]

Walsh would be my pick, under 25, has room for improvement, has shown that he could be a great player.

the others, I wouldn’t consider due to age. Great players but long term wouldn’t be worth it. the only one I might consider would be Cameron, but would still like something else to go with it.

 

[GoGeta]

I would swap pick 1 for 3/4 of your list if they were under 26.

 

[Benaly28]

Less than half your list would secure pick 1.

Bontempelli
Martin
Fyfe
Cripps
J. Cameron

The first four are pick 1 and pick 1 next year.

 

[MF]

There is usually a reasonably high success rate if pick 1 is a midfielder though. If pick 1 is a key forward then most of the time they are not going to live up to that pick.

A high success rate of them being a good player, yes. A high success rate of them being a star... Still probably 50/50

 

[Mikevk123]

Patrick Cripps-Carlton
Brodie Grundy-Collingwood
Josh Kelly-GWS
Lachie Whitfield-GWS
Jeremy Cameron-GWS
Tom Lynch-Richmond
Marcus Bontempelli-Bulldogs

 

[Procrastinator35]

Lets have a look at the number 1 pick from 2000 onwards , with the player who should have been number 1 instead.

2000: Nick Riewoldt…..Excellent choice
2001: Luke Hodge.....Maybe Judd for some but hard to argue with 4 flags & 2 NS; Ablett junior as a F/S also.
2002: Brendan Goddard....Right choice, not a great draft.
2003: Adam Cooney....Right Choice....Another average Draft.

3 of the next 4 are the Blues; & while they didn't blow them, there was clearly better.
2004: Brett Deledio…..Obviously Buddy at 5 should have went number 1
2005: Marc Murphy....Pendlebury at 5 the clear choice.
2006: Bryce Gibbs....Selwood at 7 you'd reckon.
2007: Matt Kreuzer....Dangerfield at 10, Rance at 18.

Might be a good idea for the Demons to avoid Pick 1 wherever possible in future.
2008: Jack Watts.....Yikes, Howler ....20 players in front of him.
2009: Tom Scully....Martin @ 3, Nat Fyfe at 20....What more can you say?

Couldn't say with clarity that any of these were the right choice in hindsight. Maybe Whitfield.
2010: David Swallow….Gaff 4, Prestia 9, Lynch 11 all better.
2011: Jono Patton....Cogs 2, Wingard 6, Greene 11, Mitchell 21 all better.
2012: Lachie Whitfield….Possibly Macrae 6, Grundy 18.
2013 Tom Boyd....Kelly 2, Bont 4, Cripps 13, Merrett 26.
2014: Paddy McCartin….DeGoey 5, Heeney 18.
2015: Jacob Weitering ....Oliver 4, Dunkley 25.
2016: Andy McGrath....Taranto 2, McCluggage 3 & at least 10 others all better.

Still up in the air & too early to call.
2017: Cam Rayner....Stephenson 6, Naughton 9, Kelly 23, Ryan 26, Worpel 45.
2018: Sam Walsh....Early days but looking good.
2019: Matt Rowell ?....My early prediction is Brodie Kemp.

Conclusion.....Pick 1 is absolutely no guarantee of being the best player...Though the best usually go by pick 7.

 

[PAFC_1870]

Only ones I’m skeptical of are the small forwards C Cameron, Rozee

I'd normally agree but Rozee will go midfield, goal kicking mid changes it. Small fwd no.

 

[Vintage]

Surprised how few rate Sam Walsh.

 

[SickQwon]

Do people seriously think Walsh lost value?

 

[Boristown]

Bontempelli is worth more than pick 1. Yet to even hit his physical peak years, imagine when he’s 25.

 

[HairyO]

A one dimensional forward like Brown would never fetch the first pick in the draft.

You could have just written:
"I have never watched Ben Brown play".

Worpel is 20 years old and as good at 20 as anyone in the last decade.

Probably only worth a pick in the low teens given we paid 45 for him.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Do people seriously think Walsh lost value?

A reputation is gained over time....The number 1 mantle has to be lived up to.

 

[branedotorg]

The number 1 pick is projected to be the best pick of the crop....You also have the entire crop from which to chose ...Hence it's desirability & significance.

I'd have though the no.1 is most likely to meet projected goals, not be the best player (although can be at times).

essentially it's the safest choice.

 

[Bring back Bas]

Do people seriously think Walsh lost value?

I doubt that many would think Sam Walsh has lost value. A lot of people wouldn't have picked him at number 1 last year though so it makes sense that they wouldn't give up pick 1 for him now.