Opinion 2019 Trade Period - Pass or Fail

[Squiba]

For mine, we moved a lot of experience on and made a lot of the right moves.

We definitely did not extract maximum value for these assets as a whole, with some very good deals (Sauce -> Frampton) and some Poor (Greenwood).

Imo, the success of the trade period hinges on the effectiveness of loading up on late future picks. If we genuinely have two mid first round or better F/S and/or NGA players, and we secure them for peanuts due to the moves we made this period, that's massive win.

If we end up having to take a host of average picks to the draft however and pay maximum value for our discounted players.... That'd suck.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

I think the trade period was neither a pass or a fail on our account. We cleared tons of salary, we got deals done for everyone, we have 6 picks inside the top 50 to work with and currency picks for next year now over to Hamish to see what he can do and the Matty Nicks and the coaching staff to bring it all together.

Our problem going in was that we made it look a fire sale from the get-go. Keath and Greenwood had currency which we ballsed up. Jenkins was damaged good. Why did we sign MacKay yet pay for Eddie to go. Free salary maybe but we are still paying part of Eddies wages and all of MacKay's. Not much saving there. Age demographics similar. Eddie's PR value massive.

 

[GrommoT]

Are you thinking of the Jenkins trade? We definitely got a second round pick for Keath. The steak knives (our 2020 third rounder for their 2019 third rounder) is a tie at worst, and is arguably in our favour.

Another benefit of the swap is we get to use the 2019 third rounder this year when we need to bring in many/best players we can. If we're really going to have to manage several NGA/FSs next year, that 2020 r3 would have just been swallowed up.

 

[Samcro24]

Here is Justin Reid's Interview with Kimbo & Rooch on SEN this morning.




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We’re so trading #4

 

[Geoffa32]

They valued Keath enough to give him a 4 year deal on decent coin. Keath also fills a need for them, thats why they targeted him and given their deficiencies he will give them a far greater chance of winning a premiership in the next 3-4 years than pick 13.

As for getting through to them in the PSD, all it takes is one club in 11 to pick him up. He's a decent player and the threat to the Bulldogs was real.

I think the issue you are having is seeing it at a transactional level and getting hung up on that.

Holistically we have positioned ourselves to play more youth in the future without wasting resources on older non core players playing in the SANFL. Thiss to me is worth more than worrying about missing out on minimal change in value in a trade

Pick trading has not finished yet either so the full position and worth of those transactions is yet to be known.

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[Elite Crow]

I think the issue you are having is seeing it at a transactional level and getting hung up on that.

Holistically we have positioned ourselves to play more youth in the future without wasting resources on older non core players playing in the SANFL. Thiss to me is worth more than worrying about missing out on minimal change in value in a trade

Pick trading has not finished yet either so the full position and worth of those transactions is yet to be known.

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The trade was a transaction so yeah I am getting hung up on that.

What you posted has no relevance to that trade.

 

[Flying_as_One1991]

Our problem going in was that we made it look a fire sale from the get-go. Keath and Greenwood had currency which we ballsed up. Jenkins was damaged good. Why did we sign MacKay yet pay for Eddie to go. Free salary maybe but we are still paying part of Eddies wages and all of MacKay's. Not much saving there. Age demographics similar. Eddie's PR value massive.

I agree the Mackay is a head scratcher but him still getting a game is beyond belief.

It terms of Greenwood, maybe under but he isn’t worth a first round pick but to get future 2nd which will be around 20/21 and future third which will be around 38/39 is probably about right but then trading it for the Jenkins deal was probably needed to get 37 back. So essential we traded Greenwood and Jenkins for 2x picks around pick 37 this year and probably pick 37/38 next year. So maybe under on one hand over on another.

As for Keath that injury worries me to be honest he won’t be back to full running for a few months and does it again will be 12 months out the game or worse could be career over

As much as we all love Eddie if he doesn’t want to be here so no good trying to keep him. We got him for nothing and gave us 6 years just our way of saying thanks Carlton to letting him go.

 

[skam85]

I hate that holistically is the new buzzword everywhere I look these days.
It's the new synergy

 

[BrissyCrow]

The best 3 picks we have we already had. The best we brought in was 37. We added very average picks, the chances of them being the elite talent we need are very remote.

I gather you are very disappointed with the trading ....pissed might be better than disappointed. I actually agree with your comments but I am not as upset as you are. I feel we could have got a better deal for Keath. To hear a club say "we want to keep pick 13" but they also want to get a player annoys me. Its abit like the Suns wanting Brad Crouch but we will not trade picks 1 or 2 or Luko. If you are going to say we want a player you dont then say "but we will only give you crap". I know that a club wont just hand over their best pick but hell if they really want to initiate a trade they should at least make sure they have the ammo to get it. I dont see what was wrong with our offer (Iam assuming we made the offer) of Keath plus pick 23 for pick 13. Thats not unreasonable. I am not into doing the values of picks but pick 13 is valued at 1212pts. Pick 23 is valued at 815. So that leaves the value of Keath. Given we are 400 points short that means Keath would only have to be worth pick 41/42. For me that was well within Keaths value.
Given that everyone was saying that with Keath and Bruce the Bulldogs would be in premiership contention. If they wanted Keath that badly and given our reasonable offer you would have thought that they would want to gaurentee getting Keath rather than losing him to the PSD. For me this was the real downside of our trading this year.

Notice now that the media are all talking how the Bulldogs got Keath for a steal.

Thats one area of disappointment for me. The other is not getting higher up the trade. Happy with pick 4 but having nothing between 10-20 and more importantly before Ports pick 18. So for me whilst we have moved on a few players that were eating into our cap space our trading period was below what I expected.

Time will tell.

 

[BrissyCrow]

Dogs ruled out using 13. It was never going to happen. In the end I think Reid et.al let their heads rule their hearts. 45 is better than nothing. Letting keath go for nothing whilst being an opportunity to beat our chests, was not in the best interest of the club. History suggests players like Worpel and Sloane are still around into the forties if you know what you are doing.

Disagree. You dont go looking for player and then set out the rules like "we wont trade pick 13". If you dont want to do that then dont go on the search for a trade. It should be the other way round. If you want Keath then you must be prepared to use your pick 13 in the deal. I mean they are the ones who want to shop. You dont go into wollies and pick what you want then rollup and say I dont have enough. I have a $20 note but I dont want to use it. Thats crap. We should have held out. After all the Dogs were the ones who felt that by getting Bruce and Keath would put them in there window. That should have raised Keaths price.

 

[marvin]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that traditional measures don't work in rating Greenwood and Keath.

There's been a few players over the years who didn't make their AFL debut till their mid 20s with some success (e.g. J-Pod, Tom Stewart, Mihocek). Those that succeed tend to start their careers strongly, and so you can project their likely performance pretty well.

With Greenwood and Keath (and for that matter Mason Cox), the trajectory of improvement is completely different, because without the footy development over their early adult years, their baseline is low. You've also got consistent injury issues - Keath with his shin (2019), ankle (2018), hamstring (2017) and back (2016); Greenwood with his feet.

So ultimately the variance in predicting the next 3-4 years of Greenwood and Keath is far greater than predicting the next 3-4 years of, say, Brody Mihocek. That makes their trade value hard to assess - and hence a sense of disappointment that we didn't get a deal where we didn't get towards the upper end of their perceived value.

 

[Flying_as_One1991]

The hardest thing is we can all “make up” what we think but we have no idea what is going on behind closed doors and what the negotiations were.

Easy for all of us to say “we should have done this” or “should have done that” until all offers are made public we will never know what has been offered.

 

[BrissyCrow]

You would have been happy if we got nothing?

Ideally what you are suggesting would have been great. Reid held out as long as he could. But he is accountable for his actions and getting nothing is worse than what we got.

Chest beating is fine, but what would sending Keath to the draft achieve for our club?

Threat of PSD? He would end up at the Doggies anyway.

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How does that work. I am a little hazy on the PSD. Is the sequence of picks based on the draft or is it based strictly on the the final ladder. So for example would we have got pick3 or pick8 and if you think that the Dogs would have got Keath in the PSD that would have meant he would be available when we pick. If we were so worried about losing everything we could pick him up in the PSD. Sure it would have meant that were cutting our nose off in spite of our face but we wouldn't have lost. That would also tell the other clubs that when we say 60 minutes before the end of the trade we wont trade it actually means we wont trade. Sometimes unfortunately you have to pay a price to make a statement.

 

[marty36]

cant complain at what we did in the trades

Greenwood was playing two's, keath delivered on his worth was spot on , JJ had to go regardless along with Betts, CEY explored his options as we never gave him a go, Sauce took a deal we couldn't offer

Sit back now and see if our recruitment has been good or bad time will tell

 

[MRB37]

I guess this might show a bit more of the multi-year thinking that went into the moves


So we have the 3rd best value in the draft this year, with Freo and Geelong leaping ahead of us due to them trading out Tim Kelly and Brad Hill for draft picks. We also added the 3rd most value to our 2020 draft stocks, thanks to the Greenwood/Keath trades, with North ahead due to fleecing Melbourne and shifting all their value over to 2020 and Geelong again with the Tim Kelly trade.

 

[Houston]

The deal we got for Greenwood was disgraceful, other than that I'm fairly content.
When are Gold Coast going to return the favour for all the bargain players we send them?

 

[Flying_as_One1991]

The deal we got for Greenwood was disgraceful, other than that I'm fairly content.
When are Gold Coast going to return the favour for all the bargain players we send them?

Hardly disgraceful, don't think he is worth much more then a 2nd rounder which we got.

Bargain players like Harrison Wigg

 

[mistylake]

With snifter of brandy in hand a night of deep contemplation was had. Overall would've liked to get more in return, namely in the Keath and Greenwood trades, but we did what we had to do I guess. Sent the elderly and incontinent on their way. Made some space in our cap possibly shaping up for a shot at Grundy next year. Not thrilled but I'm at ease with trade period. Twas but the recession we had to have... or some s**t

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Won’t Grundy be one of the incontinent by next year as well? I don’t think we need him.

 

[arsene wenger1]

We’re so trading #4

Reckon Geelong want it

 

[Ramses Red]

Won’t Grundy be one of the incontinent by next year as well? I don’t think we need him.

He'll have a little leakage but won't need nappies just yet

 

[Mike Smyth]

We are doing a re-build with bang average draft picks in a reported average draft.

Would be interesting too see how many drafted this year is still on the list in 5 years time.

I'm a pessimist on this one.

Normally when you are turning over your list you are also maximizing your 1st and 2nd round draft picks. We failed miserably on the later.

 

[Mike Smyth]

Reckon Geelong want it

For what?

 

[conVINCEd]

It terms of Greenwood, maybe under but he isn’t worth a first round pick but to get future 2nd which will be around 20/21 and future third which will be around 38/39 is probably about right but then trading it for the Jenkins deal was probably needed to get 37 back.

We didn't get the Suns' future second round pick for Greenwood - it was their future third and fourth round picks.

 

[jirkago]

Responding to Wood_Duck as well.

No. Do I consider Bulldogs contenders with Keath? Yes. Therefore we should have got a lot more than we did. This 13 was never on the table is crap. They had a lot more to lose and as I said at least only given them next years fourth back.

Pick 45 is a nothing pick. We have plenty of picks in that range already.

And what message have we sent to the rest of the teams when we say we will not be trading him only with 1 hour to go to then accept the same pick we said was miles away all trade period?

All clubs need to say to us is “that pick is off the table” knowing we will fold.

Did you watch the bulldogs V GWS final or bulldogs V Adelaide game? They have no key defenders and Keath won’t improve that at all.

We screwed up at the start of trade week by telling everyone we want draft picks and players gone. It devalued our bargaining position and we got what we got.


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[CutAboveTheRest]

Not sure if this has been posted yet but thought it gives an interesting insight into the whole push for rejuvination