Racing Cox Plate

[Veer Right]

Times like this we have to remember To the World went from getting beat by Gentildonna by 1L, beating Just a Way and gold ship to scraping in over Who Shot TheBarman behind Hartnell.

Different horses.

To the World was given a lovely run and grabbed second in a driving finish with the main players making wide long runs. Running second to Hartnell back then surely isn't a knock on the horse?

Looking further, this was said about Gold Ship on his wiki

He was known for his unpredictable temperament, with major wins being interspersed with inexplicably poor efforts.

on Just a Way, that was his last run. He was a 1600m - 2000m horse and that race was over 2500m

 

[Viva la Mattner]

And you could argue the year Sava and Shamus The Cat run a whole bunch of the older horses ran well below par - from memory in Sava's year there were some awful rides on the main chances.

Yep
Starcraft got butchered I’d loaded up on it

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

BHB finished along side COGH last start. Shouldn’t we be putting in our exotics?

I noticed it had a similarly lead up to the Cox Plate in 2016 but finished at the back of the field.

 

[iluvparis]

BHB finished along side COGH last start. Shouldn’t we be putting in our exotics?

No

 

[HeathySure]

BHB finished along side COGH last start. Shouldn’t we be putting in our exotics?

I noticed it had a similarly lead up to the Cox Plate in 2016 but finished at the back of the field.

you should be leaving COGH out of your exotics.

 

[Joker91]

Hartnell has been dreadfully mishandled. The past few years have shown us his best racing as an older horse has been around a mile with his runs spaced. His only wins in 2 years were fresh in the Orr and off a 3 week break in the Epsom. Instead they’ve run him in everything but the Alaskan Iditarod. The Godolphin dartboard.

Three weeks leading into the McKinnon should help, but he won’t win.

Was definitley mishanded but I disagree about the distances.
He was a moral in the Caulfield Cup 2016. Flogged Jameka two weeks prior in the Turnbull.
Godolphin decided to tackle Winx in the cox plate instead... We all know how that went.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Weather could end up playing a part on Saturday if forecast comes through

 

[mcnulty]

Even if you concede that he ran in the wrong race, his Cox Plate run was well below his Turnbull performance. He also disappointed when a short priced fave in the Sydney Cup.

Don’t think he’s relished the typical Aussie fortnightly runs- his form tapers. It’s just become more pronounced as he’s got older.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I think i would call Avilius a $7 chance on a soft 6. Just don't think it will get that low. If somehow got into the heavy would even be taking the $7

 

[FallingLiefs]

Even if you concede that he ran in the wrong race, his Cox Plate run was well below his Turnbull performance. He also disappointed when a short priced fave in the Sydney Cup.

Don’t think he’s relished the typical Aussie fortnightly runs- his form tapers. It’s just become more pronounced as he’s got older.

I think you're just trying to pick holes. His Toorak on a 14 day gap was probably his 2nd best run in the last 18 months. 3 week to the Cantala and failed. It's hard for a 8/9 yo to perform consistently. Sydney Cup irrelevant.

 

[iluvparis]

you should be leaving COGH out of your exotics.

No

 

[iluvparis]

I think i would call Avilius a $7 chance on a soft 6. Just don't think it will get that low. If somehow got into the heavy would even be taking the $7

Yeah I think the Valley actually drains pretty well too 2-5mm the day before and 2-5mm day off shouldn't have too much impact. As Liefsy says though - if it does go soft Avi wlil flog any of the local brigade.

 

[mcnulty]

His Toorak run he split Land of Plenty and Siege of Quebec. The Toorak is a weak G1, and this is an utterly dismal era of Australian racehorse. That a horse of his quality and durability has had so few wins (and he’s raced a lot without Winx) is pretty damning.

 

[iluvparis]

Everyone on here agrees he could have racked up a lot more wins if placed to pick off easier races rather than run in the championship races time and time again.

 

[FallingLiefs]

His Toorak run he split Land of Plenty and Siege of Quebec. The Toorak is a weak G1, and this is an utterly dismal era of Australian racehorse. That a horse of his quality and durability has had so few wins (and he’s raced a lot without Winx) is pretty damning.

And here we are where you claim his nose victory over D'argento and Unforgotten in an epsom as the feather in his cap.

 

[mcnulty]

The Epsom is generally stronger that the Toorak. And nd he actually won that one.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I really really love the old boy. His weight carrying efforts in his recent mile races have been outstanding. He has continually run his best against the handicap or against Winx. Picking and choosing profiles like fresh because he was able to beat Thronum by a neck first up is just purely picking holes in his form. Horses can run their best and lose.

 

[mcnulty]

No problem with aiming high. It’s just that his campaigns had a very ad hoc feel to them. Let’s make this up as we go along. Wasted, but I suppose they could afford to.

 

[iluvparis]

And here we are where you claim his nose victory over D'argento and Unforgotten in an epsom as the feather in his cap.

Remember when Richo declared those two as the second and third best horses in Australia

 

[mcnulty]

A problem no doubt amplified by the stables complete inability to develop their multitude of young locally bred horses into quality older gallopers. Let’s throw poor old Hartnell in everything.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Hartnell's main problem is we have 2? WFA G1 miles in a calendar year and winx was always in 1 of them.

This all stems from the CC and CP decision under O'Shea and since then he's had very very standard preps, just trying to invent reasons he's losing.

He tried the Handicap miles run really well but only won 1, It takes serious horses to win against the handicap.

 

[mcnulty]

My point is that “standard” preps don’t suit this horse. Anyway enough on Hartnell, happy to agree to disagree. Its cox Plate week.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I think i would call Avilius a $7 chance on a soft 6. Just don't think it will get that low. If somehow got into the heavy would even be taking the $7

MV doesnt get heavy

 

[iluvparis]

Hartnell's main problem is we have 2? WFA G1 miles in a calendar year and winx was always in 1 of them.

This all stems from the CC and CP decision under O'Shea and since then he's had very very standard preps, just trying to invent reasons he's losing.

He tried the Handicap miles run really well but only won 1, It takes serious horses to win against the handicap.

He should have been set for the MacKinnon each spring - did he ever even contest one?

 

[Veer Right]

MV is in the northern suburbs which gets less rain. Even if the predicted rain comes i can't see it worse then dead. I'll say the track will still be good.