Prediction Draft Videos

Aug 22, 2014
13,593
49,330
AFL Club
Carlton
So here’s the thing, this years top 10 are very good and therefore keeping pick 9 = a very good player and with a bit of luck better, then very good.

What have we learnt, pick 9 is to valuable to just throw away, Papley wasn’t worth us missing out on one of these kids and more importantly, never flowering listen to so called draft experts!!!

Ps. Top 20 picks should be valued every year.

Think the club disagreed - Pick 9 was most certainly on offer for Papley.
 

Red Bull

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 29, 2010
13,817
27,455
mornington peninsula
AFL Club
Carlton
FWIW I absolutely would have offered pick 9 on its own for Papley.
As it stands, the club may well have agreed with the comment you refer too if we indeed stood firm on wanting something coming back for pick 9.
Alas, I expect we will never know and perhaps, the opportunity will be lost …
 
So here’s the thing, this years top 10 are very good and therefore keeping pick 9 = a very good player and with a bit of luck better, then very good.

What have we learnt, pick 9 is to valuable to just throw away, Papley wasn’t worth us missing out on one of these kids and more importantly, never flowering listen to so called draft experts!!!

Ps. Top 20 picks should be valued every year.

Throw away?

So attaining a player that makes for the perfect fit and need is somehow deemed to be throwing away a pick, but gaining an 18 year old for a position we may not even need is the right way to go?

If we saw that going to the draft was the best thing for us, we wouldn't even chased Papley. So who's right and who's wrong?
We may yet get 'lucky', but that may come more by way of good fortune than for good planning.
 
FWIW I absolutely would have offered pick 9 on its own for Papley.
As it stands, the club may well have agreed with the comment you refer too if we indeed stood firm on wanting something coming back for pick 9.
Alas, I expect we will never know and perhaps, the opportunity will be lost …

Hey Red,

At this point, does it matter if pick 9 was offered standalone to Syd for Papley?

Other than for our own curiosity?
 

Red Bull

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 29, 2010
13,817
27,455
mornington peninsula
AFL Club
Carlton
Hey Red,

At this point, does it matter if pick 9 was offered standalone to Syd for Papley?

Other than for our own curiosity?

Well obviously it is what it is now Ferris.
But all these decisions are markers along the way and everyone will/should be judged accordingly.
Im always interested in all the machinations of the club and like to assess with an open mind as opposed to simply unconditional support.
Overall im very happy with the "new Carlton" but if we didn't offer pick 9 on its own for Papley after courting him id be pretty disappointed.
 
Aug 22, 2014
13,593
49,330
AFL Club
Carlton
Arr0w - are there any notable similarities between LOB and Stephens?

From my limited viewing, and for what it's worth, I think the key similarities are "big tank, good disposal, left footer".

The differences are pretty stark though.

Lochie seems best suited to playing behind/off the ball and taking the pill for a long run. He's someone who will work into space and provide an outlet, and has the capability to then move the ball 50-70m up the ground. He has a defensive game, but it seems to be based more on sticking close to his opponent all day and ensuring they don't get an easy possession.

Stephens appears more capable of playing ahead of the ball. He can win the ball on the lead, and with his burst pace and agility can get around his man and drive the ball over a zone and to the advantage of a deeper forward. He can also win the ball at the contest and break into space to greater effect than O'Brien. His topline speed looks better than O'Brien's, but I don't think his endurance base is as good (not that it's bad...). His defensive game seems more focused on pressure, harrassment and tackling than on zoning.

O'Brien for me is a classic winger/HBF, whereas I think Stephens is a player who starts on a wing in his early career, but probably moves into the midfield proper within a few years.
 
Last edited:
Overall im very happy with the "new Carlton" but if we didn't offer pick 9 on its own for Papley after courting him id be pretty disappointed.

Why?

Clearly we were not the reason why the Papley trade fell through.

The more relevant question is whether we offered a good enough trade for Papley, be it pick 9 on its own or as part of a package deal. And given the Swans offered pick 9 as part of the deal for Daniher, I reckon it's safe to assume they were pretty comfortable with the offer we had on the table.
 

Red Bull

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 29, 2010
13,817
27,455
mornington peninsula
AFL Club
Carlton
Why?

Clearly we were not the reason why the Papley trade fell through.

The more relevant question is whether we offered a good enough trade for Papley, be it pick 9 on its own or as part of a package deal. And given the Swans offered pick 9 as part of the deal for Daniher, I reckon it's safe to assume they were pretty comfortable with the offer we had on the table.

That just doesn't add up to me im afraid.
We don't and probably never will know the facts of what we offered so its not safe to assume anything.

Facts :
We didn't land Papley after courting him.
We don't know for sure if we offered pick 9 on its own and if we did would it have been accepted.

Again, I would be extremely disappointed if we didn't offer pick 9 straight up for Papley, we may have and it may have been rejected in which case we can live with that … we will probably never know.
 

RoyalParade

Cancelled
Feb 19, 2012
1,785
3,502
AFL Club
Carlton
That may be your opinion. Mine is different.

My opinion is that this years Top dozen is "very even", but not "very good". I'd take Papley for us yesterday, today and tomorrow over Pick 9.

But it wasn't to be. Ces't la vie. Now we have Pick 9 and we get on with it.
Terry, I saw jai jackson raised as a possible late pick by PMBangers . Is he worth a look? Also is Garcia worth a shot late too?
 
Aug 22, 2014
13,593
49,330
AFL Club
Carlton
That just doesn't add up to me im afraid.
We don't and probably never will know the facts of what we offered so its not safe to assume anything.

Facts :
We didn't land Papley after courting him.
We don't know for sure if we offered pick 9 on its own and if we did would it have been accepted.

Again, I would be extremely disappointed if we didn't offer pick 9 straight up for Papley, we may have and it may have been rejected in which case we can live with that … we will probably never know.

What we do know is that Sydney were shopping Pick 9 to Essendon.

That's about as clear an indication we'll get that the terms we reached with them for Papley were in the ballpark. Maybe there would have been some more haggling, but they were at the very least considering accepting our offer.

Following the logic, it's also clear that trading Papley was contingent on the trade unlocking a deal for Daniher. Sydney hoped that by trading Papley, they could then utilise Pick 9 to get Joe, but when Essendon rejected them, they rejected us.

Maybe they were prepared to accept a less favourable trade with us provided it landed Daniher, and without Daniher they pushed back on us and demanded more. It's possible. But I suspect if there was even the slightest hint of that actually being the case, we'd have heard about it in the media. It would have shifted some of the heat off Sydney, would have put a bit more on us, and ergo would have been easy click-fodder for the Victorian AFL media contingent. It's all been "Papley was tied to Daniher", not "Carlton refused to pay up".

All the evidence points to a simple case of No Daniher, No Papley.
 

Red Bull

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 29, 2010
13,817
27,455
mornington peninsula
AFL Club
Carlton
What we do know is that Sydney were shopping Pick 9 to Essendon.

That's about as clear an indication we'll get that the terms we reached with them for Papley were in the ballpark. Maybe there would have been some more haggling, but they were at the very least considering accepting our offer.

Following the logic, it's also clear that trading Papley was contingent on the trade unlocking a deal for Daniher. Sydney hoped that by trading Papley, they could then utilise Pick 9 to get Joe, but when Essendon rejected them, they rejected us.

Maybe they were prepared to accept a less favourable trade with us provided it landed Daniher, and without Daniher they pushed back on us and demanded more. It's possible. But I suspect if there was even the slightest hint of that actually being the case, we'd have heard about it in the media. It would have shifted some of the heat off Sydney, would have put a bit more on us, and ergo would have been easy click-fodder for the Victorian AFL media contingent. It's all been "Papley was tied to Daniher", not "Carlton refused to pay up".

All the evidence points to a simple case of No Daniher, No Papley.

I don't put much stock in the mostly lazy AFL media one way or the other.
Sydney may have been prepared to accept what they considered to be unders for Papley from us if they in turn landed Daniher for unders.
Once Dodoro, as should have been expected demanded full price for Daniher, we would have had to offer pick 9 on its own for Papley which was a fair price and even slight overs in some estimations.
If we offered pick 9 straight up and Sydney rejected the offer then we can live with that.
If we didnt ever offer pick 9 straight up after courting Papley, id be very disappointed and expect questions to be asked.
Im thrilled in the main with the way Silvagni has rebuilt the list, but his reply at close of business on the final day of trade left me far from convinced that pick 9 straight up was ever offered for Papley.
Again, we will probably never know and maybe now that opportunity has been missed ...
 
Aug 22, 2014
13,593
49,330
AFL Club
Carlton
I don't put much stock in the mostly lazy AFL media one way or the other.
Sydney may have been prepared to accept what they considered to be unders for Papley from us if they in turn landed Daniher for unders.
Once Dodoro, as should have been expected demanded full price for Daniher, we would have had to offer pick 9 on its own for Papley which was a fair price and even slight overs in some estimations.
If we offered pick 9 straight up and Sydney rejected the offer then we can live with that.
If we didnt ever offer pick 9 straight up after courting Papley, id be very disappointed and expect questions to be asked.
Im thrilled in the main with the way Silvagni has rebuilt the list, but his reply at close of business on the final day of trade left me far from convinced that pick 9 straight up was ever offered for Papley.
Again, we will probably never know and maybe now that opportunity has been missed ...

You're missing the point.

Papley's manager himself came out and said he pushed Sydney to do the deal independently of a trade for Daniher. They refused.

No Daniher, No Papley, nothing to do with whether there was change coming back for Pick 9. If they couldn't get Joe, they weren't trading Tom.
 

Red Bull

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 29, 2010
13,817
27,455
mornington peninsula
AFL Club
Carlton
You're missing the point.

Papley's manager himself came out and said he pushed Sydney to do the deal independently of a trade for Daniher. They refused.

No Daniher, No Papley, nothing to do with whether there was change coming back for Pick 9. If they couldn't get Joe, they weren't trading Tom.

His manager may well have requested an independent deal, and Sydney obviously rejected the offer which was reported as Carlton wanting something coming back for pick 9.
Here's the question :
Did you offer pick 9 straight up for Papley ?
The reply was never an official … yes we did.
If we did, say so and we live with it and move on.
If we didn't, why didn't we …
 
That just doesn't add up to me im afraid.
We don't and probably never will know the facts of what we offered so its not safe to assume anything.

Facts :
We didn't land Papley after courting him.
We don't know for sure if we offered pick 9 on its own and if we did would it have been accepted.

Again, I would be extremely disappointed if we didn't offer pick 9 straight up for Papley, we may have and it may have been rejected in which case we can live with that … we will probably never know.

Fact: it wouldn't have mattered regardless given Sydney made it clear Papley would only be leaving the club if Daniher was moving in the opposite direction.

Fact: Pick 9 was offered by Sydney as part of the exchange for Daniher

Fact: We had, and have, pick 9

Join the dots...
 
Jan 27, 2008
13,356
40,810
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Terry, I saw jai jackson raised as a possible late pick by PMBangers . Is he worth a look? Also is Garcia worth a shot late too?

I watched Jai Jackson fairly closely in a couple of games. He can play footy, but he strikes me as a one tier down footballer. A WAFL or VFL prospect.

Garcia i haven't seen much of but he was rated highly before his injury, and sometimes they are worth a punt at the subsequent cheaper price. I think for us Blues fans though, we've got enough of those injury? types. It was a breath of fresh air watching a guy like Walsh turn up with no injury backstory or history and just be ready to go and churn out quarter after quarter.
 
May 1, 2002
11,134
17,675
AFL Club
Carlton
Getting Papley, a small forward who’s 23 is exactly what we needed.

You pay #9 because he meets a pressing need, he’s a mature bodied player, you’re paying for the development invested by the swans, he’s under contract, and he could play 8 to 9 years for the club.

Many would say its less risky than picking an 18 year old and waiting 4 years to see if the YouTube highlights come to fruition.

Maybe some have seen enough of Papley to know he isn’t worth pick 9 and a top 10 pick will overtake him in 2 years - just maybe. :p
 

Red Bull

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 29, 2010
13,817
27,455
mornington peninsula
AFL Club
Carlton
Fact: it wouldn't have mattered regardless given Sydney made it clear Papley would only be leaving the club if Daniher was moving in the opposite direction.

Fact: Pick 9 was offered by Sydney as part of the exchange for Daniher

Fact: We had, and have, pick 9

Join the dots...

Not interested in joining dots, just interested in a straight answer to a simple question.

One simple question was asked and never answered definitively :

Did you offer pick 9 on it’s own for Papley ?

lf you did, why wouldn’t you say yes and put the question to rest full stop.
If you didn’t ... why didn’t you.

All the gray area talk of Papley being dependent on Daniher and pick 9 (with something coming back) being offered in some form of deal is just that ... talk.

If we never offered pick 9 straight up, how could we know if Sydney would have accepted it.
If we did, say so and we live with it and move on.

Again, a simple question was asked.
A simple YES in response would have ended the matter.

I doubt we will ever know
I wonder why ...
 
I doubt we will ever know
I wonder why ...

Probably because no professional club would ever confirm if it was true. Why would they?

This need to know for certain is laughable.

What we do know for certain is Sydney were not letting Papley go unless Daniher went in the opposite direction.
We also know for certain that the Swans were content enough with where things sat with Carlton, to offer our pick as part of the deal to get it done.

The rest isn't all that important.
 

Red Bull

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 29, 2010
13,817
27,455
mornington peninsula
AFL Club
Carlton
Probably because no professional club would ever confirm if it was true. Why would they?

This need to know for certain is laughable.

What we do know for certain is Sydney were not letting Papley go unless Daniher went in the opposite direction.
We also know for certain that the Swans were content enough with where things sat with Carlton, to offer our pick as part of the deal to get it done.

The rest isn't all that important.

Rubbish.
Clubs confirm these types of questions from the media all the time.

One simple question.
Never answered definitively ...
 
Rubbish.
Clubs confirm these types of questions from the media all the time.

One simple question.
Never answered definitively ...

No, they really aren't. Particularly about contracted players who may be the subject of negotiations 12 months down the track.

I'm not sure why you think the club owes you an explanation or running commentary of negotiations, because they simply don't. We're not talking about an amateur club playing in an amateur competition.
 
Back