- Jan 30, 2013
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Would like to read it if someone could send me this
Lys Gracieux huge
Winx Better
how good was Winx
how bad is Aus WFA ranks.
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Would like to read it if someone could send me this
Lys Gracieux huge
Winx Better
how good was Winx
how bad is Aus WFA ranks.
oh ok, predictable response
Of course its predictable when its the truth
oh ok, predictable response
That was the summary of the article
Except he ranked Hartnell and Jamika with similar ratings 100% incorrectSaw Dan O'Sullivan also did his article for racing.com ranking it behind every single Winx CP but miles best non winx run for a while.
Which seems 100% correct.
Except he ranked Hartnell and Jamika with similar ratings 100% incorrect
From what I understand, ratings aren’t adjusted for sex, but are for age. So LCs 125 is the rough equivalent of a 129 for a male horse. CVs 3yo weight allowance is built in to his 124. A five pound difference would seem about right. Does that make any sense.
Yeah - I figured that would have to be the case - i.e. if they met at set weights they wouldn't expect CV to get anywhere near LG. It probably explains why their 3yo ratings are always so high too
They overrate weight slightly so 3yos when they add the allowance they end up much bigger than most people would have them. That’s how I see it anyway. Then giving CV 124 means he needs to improve 20lb with age which many spring 3yos don’t.
That means they overrate natural improvement not weight.
Correct. A horse like All Too Hard was given a rating the same as Northerly. The chances that if ATH races on he would have been as good as that Northerly are approximately zero, IMO.That means they overrate natural improvement not weight.
Anywa
Correct. A horse like All Too Hard was given a rating the same as Northerly. The chances that if ATH races on he would have been as good as that Northerly are approximately zero, IMO.
Sepoy was given a similar rating and the wheels were already falling off in the Autumn.
I think you could argue the WFA scale is a bit outdated, especially in Australia. We are increasingly breeding horses for juvenile riches so naturally they are tending to hit a peak earlier.
Once the allowance goes they struggle, and we are seeing our 4yos not going on with. Huge handful of salt with these 3yo ratings.
This is the approximation of the WFA scale.
They are inferring that on their numbers ATH would have beaten northerly on that day with the day of WFA allowance.
Yes but CV and LG did clash on the day with the WFA allowance and she has only been viewed as being 1 pound superior? Seems unders
Not exactly. They’re saying ATHs best performance at 3 was equivalent to Northerly’s best performance as an older horse. But otherwise I broadly agree.This is the approximation of the WFA scale.
They are inferring that on their numbers ATH would have beaten northerly on that day with the day of WFA allowance.
It's mostly to do with the WFA scale being manipulated (correctly) over time to account for the best 2/3/4 yo at that time, History says the best spring 3yo will not improve the same as the average top autumn 4yo, who will likely improve from maidens in spring to G1's in autumn.
People tend to believe if a horse performs at WFA it has made it to the open age grade when in fact it has made it to the level where it has to improve equal to the WFA just to hold it's spot.
YYY wins Everest.Don't mean to play devils advocate - but how can a horse that carries significantly more weight than another and beat it comprehensively only rate 1 pound higher? Are their ratings already WFA adjusted?
Even then 1 pound seems ludicrously close - looks like they have built in their usual 10 pound 3yo fapping bonus.