Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

[Bigeasy]

Coming up. Go you good thing.

 

[shintemaster]

Coming up. Go you good thing.

View attachment 761510

Lost to Joey's Hangover. Irony alert.

 

[Hello Mr Thompson]

When & where did you get those odds?

I didn't even bother having a punt.

He was $8 on BetFair, too good to resist.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bigeasy]

Come on Boomer.

 

[Bigeasy]

Come on Boomer.

View attachment 763070

4th

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Race 5, no 4. Today

Garner.

Get on it.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Race 5, no 4. Today

Garner.

Get on it.

And he salutes. $4.00 on the tote

 

[Bigeasy]

Trifecta.

Il Paridiso to beat Cross Counter, Prince of Arran, Vow & Declare to beat field

 

[The Warlord]

I hope we were all on GARNER which saluted in Race 5 just there.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

I hope we were all on GARNER which saluted in Race 5 just there.

See above.

 

[Bigeasy]

Trifecta.

Il Paridiso to beat Cross Counter, Prince of Arran, Vow & Declare to beat field

Buga

 

[Nate7]

Please please please please announce correct weight soon

 

[B4Bear]

Had Prince of Arran each way.

Geelong Cup is a good indicator.

 

[gokangas]

Trifecta.

Il Paridiso to beat Cross Counter, Prince of Arran, Vow & Declare to beat field

Well picked - sensational result, with a little help from Dettori - bout time they banned that serial offender from riding in Australia.

 

[Orange Peanut]

Trifecta.

Il Paridiso to beat Cross Counter, Prince of Arran, Vow & Declare to beat field

Farting through silk tonight Bigeasy? Or did you not box them up?

 

[Dingster]

Had Prince of Arran each way.

Geelong Cup is a good indicator.

I had PoA the place. Only $4 which paid out $20.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Ararat on Sunday.

Race 6, no 7.

Patch Adams.

 

[Passmore]

Anyone get on Zeibell R3 at Ascot? 2nd @ $3.20 a place.

Only it's 5th start as a 3yo. Might be one to follow.

Oh and it's racing pattern? Leader of course.


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[Passmore]

Anyone get on Zeibell R3 at Ascot? 2nd @ $3.20 a place.

Only it's 5th start as a 3yo. Might be one to follow.

Oh and it's racing pattern? Leader of course.


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Apologies race 4 actually.

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[hilly]

Has Santa Ana Lane completed the course at Flemington yet?

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Passmore]

Has Santa Ana Lane completed the course at Flemington yet?

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Nature Strip did what it’s been threatening to do since the beginning.

 

[Passmore]

Our boy Ziebell running in R4 at Ascot today. The toppy us pretty smart but let's hope the captain gives us a good sight.

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[Snake_Baker]

I must get around to tallying up how I went over the season.

I think I broke even, or lost slightly, although I would have consistently won if I didn't multi.

Might need to change strategies and look at a cumulative approach next season.

 

[ferball]

I think I broke even, or lost slightly, although I would have consistently won if I didn't multi.

Might need to change strategies and look at a cumulative approach next season.

Don't bet anymore but multis seem to be based on the idea of the Fortune on Four gambling system invented (afaik) by Graham Sharp who published a betting system called System of Laws in the 80s. He added the fortune on four, which was simply a betting plan where you pick four horses plow your winnings back in over the course of the four events and if you're still in after the third you take out your initial stake and sometimes 100% on top of it.

System of laws seems to work but it has about 15 rules (the first being place bets only) and its effectiveness drops off rapidly if you miss one or two. After three its essentially pointless and you may as well guess or follow your normal routine.

I'd actually be using it if I could find the copy I had (anyone got it PM me please) but I lost a chunk of the rules years ago and its too much of PITA to work it out from scratch. Its basically a risk management strategy that identifies how to minimise the variables that effect a race but I think Sharp did some work on which variables were influential and which weren't. As I said there are about 15 and their effectiveness is decreased every time you ignore one to the point it doesn't work very well if even only a few are missing. It doesn't give big wins but steadily accumulates small amounts so anything that interferes with a 90% + success rate will stop it being effective and lose you money.

I'm sure most of you don't care about all that but anyone has the book/system I'd love to see a copy again.