Mega Thread The Father-Son Mega thread - 2019

[kazzooka]

Think about it like this. If there are 12 player we rate better than Finn and freo calls him out at pick 10, do you think we match knowing there are at least three players we rate better still available?

Say he's number 20 on our list and he gets bid on at 12 directly after our first pick. We still have 10 players we rate higher available but our next pick is 30 which is 18 away... Do we let him go on the off chance that a better player is still there?

What if there is 1 slider that we rate higher than finn available and a bid comes at 28 do we let finn go and hope the slider doesn't get drafted at 29 before us?

So many variables.

I assume that the club rates him better lower than our first but better than our second (assuming every player is picked in the order we rate them)

But we could have a player in mind that we rate highly but fully expect to be at pick 42 for example. We might be happy to drop 30 down for finn as long as 42 doesn't slide too far back that we miss the player at 42 (say we know another club will take him but we currently have a higher pick)

 

[flinchfree]

Think about it like this. If there are 12 player we rate better than Finn and freo calls him out at pick 10, do you think we match knowing there are at least three players we rate better still available?

That's kinda what I said in my post....maybe not super well written?
The idea we will 'pay' a certain figure that we believe is his worth, and not a penny more, suggests he has already been flagged with an arbitrary number to be called and not a second earlier.
But none of that means s**t on the night depending on who's name is called beforehand, and whether we're drafting for need/want or simply best available.
I truly don't think anyone on here would know the answer to that and are simply be guessing.
And if the Club on the night DID decide to reach for Finn, perhaps picking him over a similarly rated but maybe slightly better prospect - because the intangibles of having him in at the Club and what we might tease out of him because of extra motivation from the young Hawthorn filled veins young man, well, come the day after the draft all here would be SURE we only picked him because that was EXACTLY the pennies worth from our purse.
I just don't think it runs exactly like that.
There's more art to it than that.

 

[Brant]

Say he's number 20 on our list and he gets bid on at 12 directly after our first pick. We still have 10 players we rate higher available but our next pick is 30 which is 18 away... Do we let him go on the off chance that a better player is still there?

What if there is 1 slider that we rate higher than finn available and a bid comes at 28 do we let finn go and hope the slider doesn't get drafted at 29 before us?

So many variables.

I assume that the club rates him better lower than our first but better than our second (assuming every player is picked in the order we rate them)

But we could have a player in mind that we rate highly but fully expect to be at pick 42 for example. We might be happy to drop 30 down for finn as long as 42 doesn't slide too far back that we miss the player at 42 (say we know another club will take him but we currently have a higher pick)

I'm not sure, but I think the 1st Rounder element may also come into it.

I.e. If Finn is bid on at say Pick 20 & Pick 20 is still considered 1st Round then it may well advantageous to take him, even if we think it's slightly overs - it just gives us massive flexibility in future years to have taken 2x 1st Rounders for a slight premium in payment, as opposed to letting him go to another club & being restricted in trading future 1sts etc.

 

[Brishawk]

Say he's number 20 on our list and he gets bid on at 12 directly after our first pick. We still have 10 players we rate higher available but our next pick is 30 which is 18 away... Do we let him go on the off chance that a better player is still there?

What if there is 1 slider that we rate higher than finn available and a bid comes at 28 do we let finn go and hope the slider doesn't get drafted at 29 before us?

So many variables.

I assume that the club rates him better lower than our first but better than our second (assuming every player is picked in the order we rate them)

But we could have a player in mind that we rate highly but fully expect to be at pick 42 for example. We might be happy to drop 30 down for finn as long as 42 doesn't slide too far back that we miss the player at 42 (say we know another club will take him but we currently have a higher pick)

Auction theory suggests you bid you value.
So if there is a 50% chance we get a player worth Finn+1 and a 50% chance we get a player worth finn-1 then our expected return is Finn or a player worth finn on average. If we are risk averse we will take Finn. If we are risk neutral we will be indifferent to taking Finn or taking a punt on getting a player worth Finn+1. I hope that helps

 

[The Chad and I]

For all the fear we have on this board about an early bid on Finn, not many opposition supporters are hoping to pick him early on.

 

[Hodginator]

Seems you need a doctorate in mathematical sciences to read this thread.

Looking forward to the draft being done and dusted.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

This is the part I don't understand.
He can't be worth a pick number, simply a matter of whether we like another player more...no?
It's not like 'he's definitely not worth pick 8, but is certainly worth pick 15 -18!'
Those are just arbitrary numbers.
And I'm not sure ANYBODY here knows if we like him more or less than the 10 other options that will be called on the night in the first round before we get our go.

Hawthorn always go into the draft with an order of where we rate players, Finn isn't in our top 12, hence if he's bid on in the top 12 he won't be at Hawthorn because someone we rate more will still be around at that pick.

 

[houdinihuddo]

The best possible outcome will be if we happened to rate Finn a top 10 prospect and we get to use pick 11 on another highly rated player before matching a bid on Finn. I'm really excited about the depth in this draft as evidenced by the likes of Gould, Rivers, Sharp and Taylor being rated 20, 24, 25 and 29 respectively by Cal Twomey. My glass is 3/4 full. Come on down the next James Worpel who we drafted with pick 45.

 

[Agent Smith]

Finn isn't in our top 12.

That's the assumption. I'd be surprised if he was but we simply don't know.

Personally, I'm hoping we get to use our pick 30 before we have to use picks for Finn. Just because he's front and centre on our radar because he's a f/s, doesn't mean the other clubs give a fat rats about him. There's a chance he gets picked up in the 20s but my fingers are crossed he drifts past pick 30.

 

[LegendLewis]

That's the assumption. I'd be surprised if he was but we simply don't know.

Personally, I'm hoping we get to use our pick 30 before we have to use picks for Finn. Just because he's front and centre on our radar because he's a f/s, doesn't mean the other clubs give a fat rats about him. There's a chance he gets picked up in the 20s but my fingers are crossed he drifts past pick 30.

That would be awesome...but reckon he probably gets bid on around 15...

 

[cryptor]

Now that the hype of his test scores from the combine are fading I'm thinking he's probably not going to go before our first rounder. I think the fact the test scores have given us a metric by which we can rank him relative to other players has inflated his ranking a bit much.

I'm not saying he is or isn't worth a top 10 pick/bid. I just think all/most clubs will probably put a lot more weight on their actual game day observations and scout reports than they will on the combine test results. I reckon they'll probably just use the combine results as a way to split evenly ranked players or as a way to challenge conflicting preconceptions about various players (eg. "we wrote this particular kid off as slow but his testing showed he actually has a bit of zip, so let's review some of the carnival tapes", etc.)

So if before the combine he was previously expected to go late first round through to mid second round then maybe all the combine results have done is made it more likely that he goes late first round.

 

[TazHawk15]

Hawthorn always go into the draft with an order of where we rate players, Finn isn't in our top 12, hence if he's bid on in the top 12 he won't be at Hawthorn because someone we rate more will still be around at that pick.

You are very consistent at assuming things.

Do tell how you are so confident with the statement “Finn is not in our top 12”

Are you on the recruiting team?
Have you been told this by someone on the Hawthorn recruiting team?

Or is it as I suspect, just an opinion?

Because it’s in an opinion then say so, instead of saying it as though it’s a fact.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

You are very consistent at assuming things.

Do tell how you are so confident with the statement “Finn is not in our top 12”

Are you on the recruiting team?
Have you been told this by someone on the Hawthorn recruiting team?

Or is it as I suspect, just an opinion?

Because it’s in an opinion then say so, instead of saying it as though it’s a fact.

It's my understanding , just like when I said Stratton would be captain in January was my understanding.

 

[Hawkan]

So true! I swear the afl is run by lionel hutz...

Dr. Nick Riviera?

 

[HawksTHteam2beat]

Dr. Nick Riviera?

Redirect Notice

images.app.goo.gl

 

[Carl Spackler]

Hawthorn father-son prospect Finn Maginness an AFL draft bolter likened to Sydney’s Josh Kennedy
His AFL aspirations were on the rocks at the start of the season, but Hawthorn father-son prospect Finn Maginness has turned them around — with a little from a Hawthorn favourite son: his father Scott.

No Cookies | Herald Sun

No Cookies

www.heraldsun.com.au

 

[William Wonka]

It's my understanding , just like when I said Stratton would be captain in January was my understanding.

You say a lot of stuff

 

[Alite]

That's the assumption. I'd be surprised if he was but we simply don't know.

Personally, I'm hoping we get to use our pick 30 before we have to use picks for Finn. Just because he's front and centre on our radar because he's a f/s, doesn't mean the other clubs give a fat rats about him. There's a chance he gets picked up in the 20s but my fingers are crossed he drifts past pick 30.

Pick 30 for Finn would be great, but if he slips past pick 20 I hope we try bundling some picks (this years and next) to get a second player before we match a bid.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

You say a lot of stuff

If you want to go on believing that Finn will be at Hawthorn if he's bid on before our pick then that's up to you.

 

[TazHawk15]

It's my understanding , just like when I said Stratton would be captain in January was my understanding.

Sure you may get a couple of things right but with as many swings of the bat you make, you are bound to get some right.

You also state a lot of things as fact, that are proven to be wrong.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Sure you may get a couple of things right but with as many swings of the bat you make, you are bound to get some right.

You also state a lot of things as fact, that are proven to be wrong.

I think that relates more to some other posters on here, but I won't mention any names. I'll happily back my record of predicting Stratton to be captain, Scully and Wingard will return to the Hawthorn side straight through the seniors when most were also telling me in would be through the VFL at the time.

If Finn gets bid on in the top 10 and we match, people can give me the " I told you so " I'll wear that.

 

[TazHawk15]

I think that relates more to some other posters on here, but I won't mention any names. I'll happily back my record of predicting Stratton to be captain, Scully and Wingard will return to the Hawthorn side straight through the seniors when most were also telling me in would be through the VFL at the time.

Sure but maybe just tone down the style you post in. I can also point out many things I have predicted that have come true since I joined BF in 2004 (Don’t be fooled by the 2014 join date) this is my third account.

My point is you state things as fact when sometimes a simple IMO will do the trick.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Sure you may get a couple of things right but with as many swings of the bat you make, you are bound to get some right.

You also state a lot of things as fact, that are proven to be wrong.

Any examples for us?

 

[TazHawk15]

Any examples for us?

I predicted we would not take Tambling in the 2004 Draft when almost everyone was convinced we would.

I met Luke Hodge at a training camp at North Hobart in 2002 and predicted he would be a Premiership captain, long before anyone else.

I predicted 4 years ago that the Handbagger coach would be found out as a fraud, I was spot on.

Want anymore?

My point being anyone can make a prediction, it’s just smart to not state it as fact.

 

[kirbatron]

Nothing surprising with finn not being rated top 12. he wont be bid inside our first so dont worry.