Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[foodles05]

Sorry if my comment personally offended you, but sure. "Top 30" varies depending on who you ask, but I'll use players who I've seen ranked thereabouts by various sources. I can see him having a better career than Darcy Cassar, Mitch O'Neill, Jackson Mead, Sam De Koning, Jay Rantall, Harry Schoenberg, Harrison Jones, Dylan Williams just to name a few.

I would pick Smith ahead of all of those except maybe Wiliams and De Koning (because of Dogs' needs), although if purely going for best available, I'd take Smith before all of those. I also don't rate Luke Jackson as much as others seem to. Undersized for an AFL ruckman, and shown very little as a KPP, so I don't understand the fuss being made. I'd take him somewhere in the second round, but no way would I touch him with a top 20 pick.

No need to apologise I was just interested. People probably including me make a lot of these statements without saying who they wouldn't have. It's kind of like naming players to make the test team without the players who would be dropped. Not sure how much you've seen of mead but he can do a series of things smith can't do and it sure ain't the other way round. Mead much better by foot and almost the same on both sides. Very good goal kicking mid which smith isn't. Better in the air.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Not sure how much you've seen of mead but he can do a series of things smith can't do and it sure ain't the other way round.

Not sure Mead has hard-nosed defender in his repertoire.

 

[TryAnHit]

Where do you think Gould will slide too?
Do you see port or adel trading back in to try get him?
Apparently his combine results were very poor, do you see a possible he tanked it to try get to a SA side

 

[Knightmare]

KM - I am loving that Luke Jackson name keeps getting pushed higher as I am unabashed fan. Also I think Liam Henry is now getting plaudits he deserves.

Have noticed with interest over last few days with Henry and Pickett invited to Draft that small forwards seem a big attraction and talking point this year. I just think though a one dimensional small forward only is not a high pick option – the smalls at AFL level that are most in demand are the mid/forwards who can do midfield shifts as well as play forward, kick goals and tackle and apply pressure – think Michael Walters, Tom Papley, Jade Gresham etc.

Have gone back and looked at Nationals stats for this player in this pool and I will say again 2 standout head and shoulders above the rest – Liam Henry & Jack Mahony – see below for stats of the 6 rated small forwards in this Draft. Looking through vision both of these only had limited midfield time throughout Carnival so their overall disposal numbers are elite when you compare to some of the highly rated full time mids in this draft such as Kemp, Maginness, Rantall and Mead.

View attachment 776246

Freo will get a ripper with Henry and will not hesitate to match.

Of these players Mahony is the best inside mid, the best crumbing forward and applies great pressure without the ball – and he is the only one with form over last 2 years Nationals.

Weightman is the most athletic and exciting but is a small marking forward only. Does not crumb and does not apply pressure – I don’t get how we are talking first round.

Pickett is a highlight reel – but his impact is very inconsistent. I have watched him a number of times this year first hand and he goes in and out of games a lot. His size is an obvious concern as well. Can only think the draft invite relates to Port wanting him at pick 18 for romantic reasons.

Cahill I think is a very good option later in draft. Even though Stingrays gave him midfield time late in season and his numbers were ok – I don’t think he can have midfield impact like Henry and Mahony – but I do like him around goals as creative crumbing player – reminds me a lot of Dan Butler.

Rosas has signed with Suns as prelisted NT Academy.

Am now starting to look back over outside mids – as we are all sick of inside mid analysis over same names….

A good post and a lot of opinions I agree with as it happens.

Henry I like. Anyone who doesn't have him top-15 isn't paying attention and Jackson seems to have solidified his spot as a top-10 pick.

Mahony I've liked all season and last year also. My main query is how much improvement he has left, but he's of all those forwards the most polished and advanced, even more so than Henry, though I see Henry far surpassing him with time in the system.

Weightman I agree isn't someone worth selecting first round. I find his pressure ok, stats don't look great, but he can pressure reasonably. Agree though that he isn't one who has proven he can get up the field or crumb though.

Pickett I find influential when he gets it or gets near it but ultimately he doesn't find enough of it often enough which is why I can't credit him as being worth an early pick. For a small, if not finding enough of the footy at this age and stage it's hard to see how that changes at AFL level. As good as his pressure and use when he has it.

Cahill can go through the midfield some (probably not at AFL level though realistically) and is a better user than Butler. He can crumb and has tricks and while quick isn't as quick or as good of a pressure forward as Butler.

Rosas I like on talent. He's one who would have gone mid-draft had he been available for selection.

It's a good year to stock up on small and medium forwards. There are so many good ones! And you haven't even listed half of those I'd consider draftable.

 

[Virgin Dog]

No need to apologise I was just interested. People probably including me make a lot of these statements without saying who they wouldn't have. It's kind of like naming players to make the test team without the players who would be dropped. Not sure how much you've seen of mead but he can do a series of things smith can't do and it sure ain't the other way round. Mead much better by foot and almost the same on both sides. Very good goal kicking mid which smith isn't. Better in the air.

It's all subjective anyway, and near impossible to compare players of different types. The guys I named are mostly midfielders, while Smith is obviously a mid-sized defender. Mead doesn't have the one-on-one strength to be a lock down defender like Smith does. If I'm looking for a midfielder, I'd take pretty much every person I named ahead of Smith, but that's not what I would want Smith for. I would want him as that solid, strong medium sized defender that can take on almost any forward outside of the small agile ones (think guys like Hurn, Morris, Grimes) and have the confidence and footy IQ to make plays coming out of defence

 

[Knightmare]

It requires a lot of things to go specific ways, but I do have a question. If Jack Martin were to go to the draft, where would you think a team should/would take him, and is the dogs at 13 too early

Martin will go into the PSD and go to Carlton.

But if Martin did enter the national draft, while I personally rate Martin somewhere around 15, I don't expect a club would take him inside the first round. I suspect Carlton would need to trade up to early second round to ensure they get him, probably something in the early 20s as a West Coast or Fremantle might trade up and ahead of Carlton's second selection to secure him otherwise. And if one of those clubs picks Martin, I'd expect he'd stay.

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you think Gould will slide too?
Do you see port or adel trading back in to try get him?
Apparently his combine results were very poor, do you see a possible he tanked it to try get to a SA side

I can see Gould sliding into the second round.

Brisbane in the 20s might be a possible spot, with Adelaide at 23 or 28 another possible destination. Or maybe Port beat them both to the punch at 18 late in the 1st.

It's not looking like Gould is that clear, irrefutable first round pick really anyone who has seen a decent number of his games would think of him as being. My view remains unchanged that Gould is a clear top 15 player in this draft and anyone getting him later than that have got themselves a steal.

 

[YeOldTiger]

IF Martin was desperate to leave, he would have asked to be traded to Victoria. There were many clubs interested and someone would have paid a first round pick that GCS wanted.

He asked for Carlton, which meant the Blues had to come up with the goods. Blues didn’t.... here we are.

Blues haven't come up with the goods for 20 years now. Don't mean to troll but it has to be said.

 

[YeOldTiger]

he plays like Byron Pickett but smaller

Heh heh whispering death. Look out.

 

[YeOldTiger]

On tonight’s AFL.com draft video Cal Twomey says it can be done. A club has 4 minutes and would have to move quick.

This is a disgrace and further compromises the draft. We don't have to copy the bloody Americans in everything!!! Ffs.

 

[weltschmerz]

I can see Gould sliding into the second round.

Brisbane in the 20s might be a possible spot, with Adelaide at 23 or 28 another possible destination. Or maybe Port beat them both to the punch at 18 late in the 1st.

It's not looking like Gould is that clear, irrefutable first round pick really anyone who has seen a decent number of his games would think of him as being. My view remains unchanged that Gould is a clear top 15 player in this draft and anyone getting him later than that have got themselves a steal.

How do you think he’d fit in at the Dogs? He’s one I’d love to see in our colours, behind McAsey.

 

[YeOldTiger]

Your post which I replied to was about contracted players being held to their contracts. Martin yet again is not contracted.
As to this post, Martin has a choice whether to go in the ND or PSD. If PSD, GC has a choice whether to continue acting like dicks or to give up. Melbourne would then have a choice at pick 2 if GC give up.
Does it bother you if he gets to Carlton? Why?

Spoken like a true bluebagger. Watching you make a mess of trade period was comedy gold. Hopefully he goes in the ND and we grab him at 20. He will look great running up and down a wing in our VFL team.

 

[Knightmare]

How do you think he’d fit in at the Dogs? He’s one I’d love to see in our colours, behind McAsey.

I like McAsey more. 197cm and has the athleticism and intercept marking. I'll be moving him up my November power rankings after reviewing his U18 Champs play again and getting reminded of how good he is.

Gould I like though. Good value and a good fit if McAsey isn't there.

 

[Marcel Proust]

His playing weight is probably less. He's simply of the genetic makeup that is very sensitive to retaining fluid and weight gain. Certainly not got Ben Hart genes, more like Cosgrove genes. He'll be fine.

thats not a good thing is it?

he isnt required to throw some offies

 

[Marcel Proust]

I like McAsey more. 197cm and has the athleticism and intercept marking. I'll be moving him up my November power rankings after reviewing his U18 Champs play again and getting reminded of how good he is.

Gould I like though. Good value and a good fit if McAsey isn't there.

1) sounds like a good fit for richmond , will McAsey be around that pick range?

2) Who do you currently see going to the Tigers first pick currently?

3) If ricmond keep some of the 38/39/40 draft picks, is there any talls at this range you think will be good?

4) did you know Fraser Turner is 18&10months and a VFL premiership player

cheers

 

[Davo-27]

Heh heh whispering death. Look out.

i have not seen the aggression his uncle Byron had in Kysaiah, but when he bumps someone they collapse in the same way Byron used to bump someone, i think because he is smaller he has smaller hands and so fumbles a bit more often than i would like, but has the goal sense and strong build as well as the burst speed his uncle had, very similar player though with some slight differences.

 

[Knightmare]

1) sounds like a good fit for richmond , will McAsey be around that pick range?

2) Who do you currently see going to the Tigers first pick currently?

3) If ricmond keep some of the 38/39/40 draft picks, is there any talls at this range you think will be good?

4) did you know Fraser Turner is 18&10months and a VFL premiership player

cheers

1. Hard to see McAsey dropping outside the top 15. He remains a top-10 chance. Bargain if recruiters somehow let him slide, but I can't see it happening.

2. As per my current phantom draft (see page one) Cooper Stephens (mid) I have going to Richmond with their first pick.

3. Jake Riccardi/Mitch Georgiades/Cooper Sharman/Charlie Comben/Dyson Hilder/Karl Finlay are some of those who should be there, though it is on the relatively early side with each of them. If a Harrison Jones or Sam De Koning slide that may appeal more-so.

4. There are always some interesting stats around. Mark McGough youngest player in the AFL winning the ANZAC Day Medal. Marlion Pickett as a first gamer winning an AFL premiership. Turner is going to have to work hard to earn senior opportunities on a good Richmond side.

 

[Marcel Proust]

1. Hard to see McAsey dropping outside the top 15. He remains a top-10 chance. Bargain if recruiters somehow let him slide, but I can't see it happening.

2. As per my current phantom draft (see page one) Cooper Stephens (mid) I have going to Richmond with their first pick.

3. Jake Riccardi/Mitch Georgiades/Cooper Sharman/Charlie Comben/Dyson Hilder/Karl Finlay are some of those who should be there, though it is on the relatively early side with each of them. If a Harrison Jones or Sam De Koning slide that may appeal more-so.

4. There are always some interesting stats around. Mark McGough youngest player in the AFL winning the ANZAC Day Medal. Marlion Pickett as a first gamer winning an AFL premiership. Turner is going to have to work hard to earn senior opportunities on a good Richmond side.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Richmond 'trade up' with those several thirds rounders and or future picks.

Thanks for your reply

 

[Knightmare]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Richmond 'trade up' with those several thirds rounders and or future picks.

Thanks for your reply

I mentioned as much in my most recent piece. Those clubs with the numbers of picks (Richmond being one of them) are in a great position to negotiate, particularly with those clubs with Academy or father-son kids they want discounts on. Otherwise some kind of pick bundle to move up slightly or trade for future picks is always doable as per your suggestion.

 

[andleanback]

KM - I am loving that Luke Jackson name keeps getting pushed higher as I am unabashed fan. Also I think Liam Henry is now getting plaudits he deserves.

Have noticed with interest over last few days with Henry and Pickett invited to Draft that small forwards seem a big attraction and talking point this year. I just think though a one dimensional small forward only is not a high pick option – the smalls at AFL level that are most in demand are the mid/forwards who can do midfield shifts as well as play forward, kick goals and tackle and apply pressure – think Michael Walters, Tom Papley, Jade Gresham etc.

Have gone back and looked at Nationals stats for this player in this pool and I will say again 2 standout head and shoulders above the rest – Liam Henry & Jack Mahony – see below for stats of the 6 rated small forwards in this Draft. Looking through vision both of these only had limited midfield time throughout Carnival so their overall disposal numbers are elite when you compare to some of the highly rated full time mids in this draft such as Kemp, Maginness, Rantall and Mead.

View attachment 776246

Freo will get a ripper with Henry and will not hesitate to match.

Of these players Mahony is the best inside mid, the best crumbing forward and applies great pressure without the ball – and he is the only one with form over last 2 years Nationals.

Weightman is the most athletic and exciting but is a small marking forward only. Does not crumb and does not apply pressure – I don’t get how we are talking first round.

Pickett is a highlight reel – but his impact is very inconsistent. I have watched him a number of times this year first hand and he goes in and out of games a lot. His size is an obvious concern as well. Can only think the draft invite relates to Port wanting him at pick 18 for romantic reasons.

Cahill I think is a very good option later in draft. Even though Stingrays gave him midfield time late in season and his numbers were ok – I don’t think he can have midfield impact like Henry and Mahony – but I do like him around goals as creative crumbing player – reminds me a lot of Dan Butler.

Rosas has signed with Suns as prelisted NT Academy.

Am now starting to look back over outside mids – as we are all sick of inside mid analysis over same names….

Weightman doesn’t crumb or apply pressure? Go and watch his game against WA at the champs

 

[JaegarTime]

Hey KM, I’ve seen a few people saying Hawks could take Robertson.. I can’t say I’ve seen enough to make a fair judgement but everything I read makes me feel a little underwhelmed. Do you think he has much room to grow?

Would love either Kemp or Stephens at our pick

 

[Northernsoul74]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Richmond 'trade up' with those several thirds rounders and or future picks.

Thanks for your reply

Who with though? I can’t see anyone wanting a handful third rounders in this draft. Freo and Port should have enough to match bids without trading out of the top 12. If a bid comes “early” for Henry I think Freo would have much more attractive offers.

 

[Mitchell54]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Richmond 'trade up' with those several thirds rounders and or future picks.

Thanks for your reply

I've suggested before in differing threads that the following could be a plausible trade:

Hawks trade Picks 30 & 54 to Richmond for Picks 39, 41 & 56/Future 3rd

Gets Richmond further up the order and gives Hawthorn more points for a Maginness match.

 

[Jack Richards]

Knightmare Is Kemp a huge risk going top 10? If fit would be higher but ACL at his age is a worry. How many kids do an ACL go top 10 and have great careers?

Also who do you see as this years Connor Rozee?

 

[Chubberson]

What are the chances of Cam Taheny sliding a bit? I can't see top 40 tbh. Does he have the acceleration for potential matchups at AFL level 3rd 4th defender types and is hardness an issue? Lovely left leg and shot for goal.