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Opinion Stephen Silvagni

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windows1 said:
Ok you came on here why exactly pal? Why you here? Just on here to tell us we are shit? What are you doing on our Board?
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Wanted to know the reaction to the imminent signing of Martin, whose character and motivation are questionable. One post and the thread keeps appearing in my alerts.

If I'm not welcome then just say so.
 

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Gethelred said:
Yep. Rumour and innuendo; supposition. While Bolton was coach, we barely leaked at all; now, we're back to leaking like a sieve.

I can't be the only one who thinks this isn't a good thing.
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Very well put mate. Have thought this too! Wonder why this has occurred?
 
Ron The Bear said:
2012 16th/21 games/19yo
2013 13th/21/20yo
2014 2nd/23/21yo
2015 11th/23/22yo
2016 eq 7th/22/23yo
2017 11th/25/24yo
2018 worse than 21st/18/25yo
2019 12th/23/26yo

Roughly comparable to Jack Martin's finishes in a bottom side. And Brando didn't ask for $2m for the next two years.

Good luck finding the switch on Martin.
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It's not like for like because Martin has played fewer games due to injury.

Martin played half the possible games in his first two seasons (11 and 12 games) - so b&f isn't a useful metric.

His third season (2016) he finally got a run of games and placed third.

He followed it up with another 3rd place in 2017.

2018 he made the top 10 from only 15 games.

I think most of the feeling on here is that Ellis has hit his ceiling.....and most tigers aren't crushed to see the back of him...Martin on the other hand is constantly referred to as a player yet to hit his potential.

If it works out that way, Martin is cash better spent because his baseline is comparable to Ellis's ceiling. (EDIT: Im referring to the fact that both contracts are roughly the same terms in totality - $3-$3.1M for 5 years)
 
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slashin_velvet said:
I think most of the feeling on here is that Ellis has hit his ceiling.....and most tigers aren't crushed to see the back of him...Martin on the other hand is constantly referred to as a player yet to hit his potential.
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TBH "Ellis must be dropped" has been a familiar refrain in the past two years. He became something of a whipping boy and only needed a glaring error in an otherwise good game to have people calling for his head. Probably more of a reflection on how the team has been travelling, and no players like Vickery or Taylor Hunt to vent frustrations on.

Martin no doubt has more talent and scope, but most times I watch him his performance screams "LAZY!". He plays in patches and gives the impression of not being prepared to work hard enough to maximise his talent. The best games I've seen him play have been as a lead-up forward, like "Shotgun" Williams from Hawthorn, and even then he averaged barely a goal a game in his most prolific year.

As said earlier, with Ellis you know what you're getting. With Martin, you just don't. Is he going to pull his finger out now that he's on huge coin? What does that say about him? What happens if he doesn't produce and the spotlight goes on him in a footy town?

What did Carlton offer for him, a 2nd- and a 3rd-rounder? I believe that was a fair offer, based on output to date. For Gold Coast to get nothing and be handed picks by the AFL is disgusting. You can't be valuing players mid-career on potential.
 
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Ron The Bear said:
TBH "Ellis must be dropped" has been a familiar refrain in the past two years. He became something of a whipping boy and only needed a glaring error in an otherwise good game to have people calling for his head. Probably more of a reflection on how the team has been travelling, and no players like Vickery or Taylor Hunt to vent frustrations on.

Martin no doubt has more talent and scope, but most times I watch him his performance screams "LAZY!". He plays in patches and gives the impression of not being prepared to work hard enough to maximise his talent. The best games I've seen him play have been as a lead-up forward, like "Shotgun" Williams from Hawthorn, and even then he averaged barely a goal a game in his most prolific year.

As said earlier, with Ellis you know what you're getting. With Martin, you just don't. Is he going to pull his finger out now that he's on huge coin? What does that say about him? What happens if he doesn't produce and the spotlight goes on him in a footy town?
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You're absolutely right that with Ellis you know what you're getting where Martin can seem to be lazy. I guess the way most blues fans interpret this is that both players cost the same, so even if Martin is lazy - his output is still relatively aligned with Ellis. Martin is also more inside-outside vs Ellis who is much more an outside receiver - so Martin suits our needs more. The best case for Martin is much higher than Ellis, vs the worst case where they're probably somewhat comparable.
 

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slashin_velvet said:
You're absolutely right that with Ellis you know what you're getting where Martin can seem to be lazy. I guess the way most blues fans interpret this is that both players cost the same, so even if Martin is lazy - his output is still relatively aligned with Ellis. Martin is also more inside-outside vs Ellis who is much more an outside receiver - so Martin suits our needs more. The best case for Martin is much higher than Ellis, vs the worst case where they're probably somewhat comparable.
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Sometimes you need to take a calculated risk, and I reckon Martin's a risk. Think also that Carlton's strategy is predicated upon attracting quality free agents in the next few years, given the upcoming retirement of team staples and a future lack of depth 25yo+. Coniglio fits the bill; Martin doesn't. Yet.

If you could merge Martin's ability with Newnes' character...
 
Ron The Bear said:
Sometimes you need to take a calculated risk, and I reckon Martin's a risk. Think also that Carlton's strategy is predicated upon attracting quality free agents in the next few years, given the upcoming retirement of team staples and a lack of depth 25yo+. Coniglio fits the bill; Martin doesn't. Yet.
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Yeah, agree he's a risk, however in the risk/reward stakes its not even comparable to Coniglio.

Coniglio was rumoured to be on $1.1M+ offers vs Martin's offer which is $600k per year on average. The headlines are propping up this whole $2M in the first 2 years, but its irrelevant over the life of the contract - we have cap space now, and in a "use it or lose it scenario", front ending Martin's deal is good business because not only do we use cap space we would otherwise forfeit, it also prevents other club bids meaning we give nothing up.....effectively making him a free agent. If we had taken Coniglio, we would have likely front ended the deal - same with Papley, same with Ellis - ignore the headlines and focus on the meat of the comparable deals. Martin is a risk, but the potential rewards are worth it to us.
 
slashin_velvet said:
Yeah, agree he's a risk, however in the risk/reward stakes its not even comparable to Coniglio.

Coniglio was rumoured to be on $1.1M+ offers vs Martin's offer which is $600k per year on average. The headlines are propping up this whole $2M in the first 2 years, but its irrelevant over the life of the contract - we have cap space now, and in a "use it or lose it scenario", front ending Martin's deal is good business because not only do we use cap space we would otherwise forfeit, it also prevents other club bids meaning we give nothing up.....effectively making him a free agent. If we had taken Coniglio, we would have likely front ended the deal - same with Papley, same with Ellis - ignore the headlines and focus on the meat of the comparable deals. Martin is a risk, but the potential rewards are worth it to us.
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Agree that not having to trade for Martin is good work by Carlton, very bad by Gold Coast. Regardless of the structure of Martin's contract, "a million a year" is going to be at the forefront of thinking when his performance is scrutinised. You can get away with under-performing in a town that doesn't care, but down here... Rightly or wrongly, it will be suggested that Martin got the money set aside for Coniglio. It's just another potential factor.
 
Ron The Bear said:
Agree that not having to trade for Martin is good work by Carlton, very bad by Gold Coast. Regardless of the structure of Martin's contract, "a million a year" is going to be at the forefront of thinking when his performance is scrutinised. You can get away with under-performing in a town that doesn't care, but down here... Rightly or wrongly, it will be suggested that Martin got the money set aside for Coniglio. It's just another potential factor.
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Let the nuff nuffs eat cake. If he comes good and is playing well in years 3-5 of the deal will those same mouthbreathers be praising Carlton for having an elite talent on $350k a year?
 
Ron The Bear said:
TBH "Ellis must be dropped" has been a familiar refrain in the past two years. He became something of a whipping boy and only needed a glaring error in an otherwise good game to have people calling for his head. Probably more of a reflection on how the team has been travelling, and no players like Vickery or Taylor Hunt to vent frustrations on.

Martin no doubt has more talent and scope, but most times I watch him his performance screams "LAZY!". He plays in patches and gives the impression of not being prepared to work hard enough to maximise his talent. The best games I've seen him play have been as a lead-up forward, like "Shotgun" Williams from Hawthorn, and even then he averaged barely a goal a game in his most prolific year.

As said earlier, with Ellis you know what you're getting. With Martin, you just don't. Is he going to pull his finger out now that he's on huge coin? What does that say about him? What happens if he doesn't produce and the spotlight goes on him in a footy town?

What did Carlton offer for him, a 2nd- and a 3rd-rounder? I believe that was a fair offer, based on output to date. For Gold Coast to get nothing and be handed picks by the AFL is disgusting. You can't be valuing players mid-career on potential.
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I’ve never heard anything but I can’t believe they wouldn’t have done due diligence on him for that contract. So presume he’s fine.

I’m fundamentally not sure what fans of other clubs think Carlton should have done/ should do here. Can you choose from the following:

1: don’t go after him at all
2: offer him a lot less (say 400?) and lose him to Dogs who offered considerably more
3: do what we’ve done and meet the market and try and get him

Like which one? Or is there a 4th?
 

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Ron The Bear said:
Agree that not having to trade for Martin is good work by Carlton, very bad by Gold Coast. Regardless of the structure of Martin's contract, "a million a year" is going to be at the forefront of thinking when his performance is scrutinised. You can get away with under-performing in a town that doesn't care, but down here... Rightly or wrongly, it will be suggested that Martin got the money set aside for Coniglio. It's just another potential factor.
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Only by nuff nuffs like Jonny Ralph with his Carlton obsession.

People with half a brain understand that it is about the overall value of the contract and our ability to manage salary cap.

The upfronting of payments is only a problem if he requests a trade in 3 years.
 

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Opinion Stephen Silvagni

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