List Mgmt. 2019 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals Thread - Part II

[ScrewInStuds]

Hope we get Hayden Young with our first and Harry Schoenberg with our second - love his highlights package and reckon he's got the frame to fill out to AFL size no worries. If Shoe's not available Cooper Stephens at 25 would be good too.

 

[mikey_san]

p5 = p13 + p17
we wouldn't give p32 aswell,, maybe p44 but would still want something back

Not according to the draft calculator I used. It came out we overpaid by an amount equal to pick 60.
Could live with that.
Or maybe its ten years old, dunno.

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[WillHayward]

We don't even need a forward like that as we have Hayward. In fact we don't need to draft a forward at all.

Taylor Reid McCartin
Hayward Blakey Heeney
Florent Rowbottom Dawson
Lloyd Aliiir Cunningham
Rampe ? Mills

?
Hewett
Parker

Flanders, Gray, Taylor, ?

Paps, Buddy and JPK might all be gone in 2 years time.

 

[SGBeach]

Not according to the draft calculator I used. It came out we overpaid by an amount equal to pick 60.
Could live with that.
Or maybe its ten years old, dunno.

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

p5 = 1878, p32 = 584, p44 = 362
p13= 1212, p17= 1025 (afl.com)

to move up the draft, you always pay overs
p5 = p13 + p17 that's about right

 

[MarkP]

I just hope we pick a footy player and not an "athlete" with "attributes"

 

[caesar88]

I thought he more or less got the top 20 exactly right every year.

He got 8 of the top 20 right, though the first 7 were fairly predictable with the top 3 being ahead of the rest, Smith not wanting to leave Vic, and the King twins basically being linked to their clubs from early on. He didn't predict Collier-Dawkins or Bobby Hill sliding seven spots, or Chayce Jones rising five spots, or Zak Butters rising four spots.

Super-drafts are also easier to predict because it's usually a lot easier to group the players into tiers. A much more open draft, like this year, is a lot harder to anticipate. Take 2017 for example. You could argue Twomey had a shocker. He only got five players correct. He got Richards and Higgins wrong by six spots, Brander and L. Fogarty wrong by seven spots, Oscar Allen and D. Fogarty wrong by eight spots, Stephenson wrong by 11 spots, and Nathan Murphy and Charlie Ballard wrong by 23 spots. When the draft is open and clubs have less 'obvious' picks to choose from, it means they have so many more options, and less chance of Twomey getting the right one. I believe him in his reporting of who clubs are interested in, but it tells you SFA in terms of what the final decisions will be.

Interesting with Stephenson as well that he was expected to slide because of his minor heart issues, but was taken inside the top 10. Journos and pundits are rarely willing to report the risks and bold moves that the recruiters are willing to take.

 

[Punts]

Hayden young I hope

 

[RainMachine]

Green bid > Kemp > Young

If gws really want Ash, I hope we move earth to get Melb's pick, bid on green at 3, dees can get Jackson with their next

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Green bid > Kemp > Young

If gws really want Ash, I hope we move earth to get Melb's pick, bid on green at 3, dees can get Jackson with their next

Waste of time giving a pick up when we can just bid at 5/6.

 

[mikey_san]

p5 = 1878, p32 = 584, p44 = 362
p13= 1212, p17= 1025 (afl.com)

to move up the draft, you always pay overs
p5 = p13 + p17 that's about right

Fiddlesticks - that's too much of a gap. Maybe 13 and 20 might be about evens.
If Kemp is gone at 13 (agree Hawks would be a chance) perhaps Robertson would be there to go with Cooper Stephens at 20. I'd be pretty happy with that and then wouldn't mind a flyer later on a higher risk type.

Biggie Nyuon reckons he's a chance in the second round now btw.

 

[RainMachine]

Waste of time giving a pick up when we can just bid at 5/6.

There is 0% chance that gws dont match a green bid at pick 5. I will apologise to you every round of the 2020 season if they dont.

He is the mid we need.
Not going to pretend it's not an incredibly outside chance, but I think they would consider not matching at 3

 

[RUNVS]

I just hope we pick a footy player and not an "athlete" with "attributes"

To me that sounds like Stephen as when mentioning his good points his athleticism usually comes up first.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

There is 0% chance that gws dont match a green bid at pick 5. I will apologise to you every round of the 2020 season if they dont.

He is the mid we need.
Not going to pretend it's not an incredibly outside chance, but I think they would consider not matching at 3

So be it. Don’t need to sell our entire resources just for a Hail Mary that won’t work anyway. Every chance Flanders, etc will be just as good as Green.

 

[caesar88]

There is 0% chance that gws dont match a green bid at pick 5. I will apologise to you every round of the 2020 season if they dont.

He is the mid we need.
Not going to pretend it's not an incredibly outside chance, but I think they would consider not matching at 3

Won't happen.

As much as they could be into Jackson, Ash or Young, there's no way they would turn down an academy product who is rated as highly as Green.

 

[RainMachine]

Won't happen.

As much as they could be into Jackson, Ash or Young, there's no way they would turn down an academy product who is rated as highly as Green.

Let a man live in a world of sweet delusion, Caesar!

Maybe they rate getting a Ash + Young over a green based on their list profile.

 

[RUNVS]

To be Robertson seems like the better choice over Flanders. Robertson is a midfielder and nothing but a midfielder while Flanders is a forward who can play in the midfield. We need a genuine midfielder.

 

[RainMachine]

So be it. Don’t need to sell our entire resources just for a Hail Mary that won’t work anyway. Every chance Flanders, etc will be just as good as Green.

That's true, but on what basis? Every chance serong is better than both too?

Think Green on exposed form is way ahead

 

[replicant]

There is 0% chance that gws dont match a green bid at pick 5. I will apologise to you every round of the 2020 season if they dont.

He is the mid we need.
Not going to pretend it's not an incredibly outside chance, but I think they would consider not matching at 3

I agree. I posted this potential trade on the Drafts thread exploring how it *could* happen :

I'd like to see Sydney offer 5 + 32 + 2020 1st for Melbourne's 3 and 10.

5 (1878) + 32 (584) = 2462.
3 (2234) + 10 (1395) = 3629

That leaves a 1167 points deficit to be paid for by our 2020 1st. 1167 is about pick 14. In other words, as long as Sydney finish outside the top 4, Dees would end up ahead. If we finish bottom 4 like this year, Dees make out like bandits.

If we got those picks, I'd like to see us bid on Green, force GWS to match, and then take Flanders/Kemp at 4 and Robertson(/Serong/Stephens) at 10. Would solve our midfield issues. We could get Green if GWS didn't match, but i'd see that as unlikely. But if we don't, we have 5 (will probably still get Kemp/Flanders) and then 25, where who knows what we get? The only way to get two good mids is to trade up. The good thing is if the Dees want Young/Jackson, i can't see us going after either. They're just not what we need right now, so Dees would still get one player they want at 5.

Giving up next years first is ok, as we have Campbell and Gulden coming through, so we have priority on two good talents. Would rather get an extra year into two mids, than wait for a first rounder next year.

(added Kemp as an option after hearing Dalrymple speak)

 

[LukeParkerno1]

That's true, but on what basis? Every chance serong is better than both too?

Think Green on exposed form is way ahead

Scope for improvement mainly. Rate Flanders very highly.

Happy to bid for Green but no I wouldn’t trade up burning resources on the off chance GWS are drunk.

 

[Swansujelly]

If melb bid on green and gws pass, can Mel then trade green to us for 5 and something?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

To be Robertson seems like the better choice over Flanders. Robertson is a midfielder and nothing but a midfielder while Flanders is a forward who can play in the midfield. We need a genuine midfielder.

Can get an inside mid in the second round

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If melb bid on green and gws pass, can Mel then trade green to us for 5 and something?

Can’t happen. It’s not the NBA.

 

[caesar88]

Let a man live in a world of sweet delusion, Caesar!

Maybe they rate getting a Ash + Young over a green based on their list profile.

Fair enough! I'm personally pumped for Rowell to be a Swan

 

[caesar88]

That's true, but on what basis? Every chance serong is better than both too?

Think Green on exposed form is way ahead

Kemp will be better than any of them. Bookmark this post

 

[RainMachine]

Kemp will be better than any of them. Bookmark this post

I'm certainly riding shotgun on the Kemp train. He's my number 2 priority