Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion II

[Robertio]

In my long life I can’t recall being ‘interested’ in SO many players. It’s a lot easier for me to list who I won’t bother with than who I will. And I’m not focusing on them not out of disdain but rather just don’t have the bandwidth!

Lang
Polson
Finbar
Goddard

Maybe Macreadie is close to that group.

Even the oldies interest me. How are Kreuzer, Simmo and Murph hanging on? What’s this Newnes like? Is Casboult as fit as he was last year? Is Cripps moving better with the reduced weight?

Like it’s an incredible list now. So much depth and talent. Flexibility. Points of summer intrigue:

- will Setters lock down a Central on ball role?
- is Kennedy going to force out someone on the half forward line?
- has LOB strengthened up his body enough to make it a real contest for wing with Newnes?
- are Philp and Ramsay fit enough to push for games?
- is Stocker genuinely in the mix now?
- is Cunners back to full fitness?
- can MCG hold his own in runs?
- is Dow fit and strong enough now?
- did SPS and SOs step it up again? Fitness wise?

IF the answer to all your questions is yes, lookout here we come.

 

[El Topo]

Im of the opinion if he is still in the 22 for round 1 then Teague isn't making the decisions he should be making now.

Patience, grasshopper. One more year.

 

[footyfan1978]

In my long life I can’t recall being ‘interested’ in SO many players.

Bit similar to you.
I started watching from season 1978 so I was starting to learn whom our players were then. The older players like Doull, Southby, Jezza, Percy Jones. Keough and David McKay had been there sometime before I was a little kid and were the group that had premiership success to guide the youngsters.

For me the youngster I would be learning about for next 12 months were the following:

Ashman, Rod
Catoggio, Vin
Towns, Greg
Maclure, Mark
Fitzpatrick, Mike
Galt, Rod
Buckley, Jim
Brown, Peter
Sheldon, Ken
Young, Michael
Harmes, Wayne
Jones, Wow
McConville, Peter
Collins, Dennis
Francis, Peter
Johnston, Wayne
Klomp, Robbert
Marcou, Alex

Pretty exciting group I would learn about and many played in the 79 premiership team.


Right now in order of guys making debut and before this draft a similar number of young group to enjoy watch develop together:

Weitering, Jacob
Curnow, Charlie
Silvagni, Jack
Cuningham, David
Marchbank, Caleb
Petrevski-Seton, Sam
Williamson, Tom
Fisher, Zac
McKay, Harry
Dow, Paddy
Kennedy, Matthew
O'Brien, Lochie
Lang, Darcy
De Koning, Tom
Gibbons, Michael
Setterfield, Will
Walsh, Sam
Stocker, Liam

Some did not make it in the 1978-79 youngsters but majority did and we ended up winning 3 flags in 4 years from 1979 to 82.

Exciting times to be a Carlton fan of all ages.
Bring on the next decade...

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

The major problem that let's Dow's game down atm is his aerobic capacity to run and cover the ground that's necessay to play as not only a midfielder but when he was played forward later on in the season.
Sure his field kicking needs a little work and the set shots are a big letdown for him atm but it's his inability to keep up with the speed and repeat efforts of the game which is effecting all the strengths of his game.
Not being a naturally aerobic player he will take some time to get it to the required level where he'll start to gain the confidence in himself with not only the explosive offensive part of his game but the defensive part...

 

[Red_man2008]

Pretty bold of the CFC to take on so many 18 year olds via the drafts.
Nothing wrong with doing so by any means, but maybe just a slight deviation from previous years.

OUTS: Thomas Pickett Garlett Kerr Schumacher Fasolo Lobbe Phillips Deluca Lebois
INS: Martin Newnes Betts Pittonet Kemp Philp Ramsay Honey Phillips

Are we immediately better? The forward line clearly will be at least, with the additions of Martin & Betts and we have good cover elsewhere.
We know that the biggest improvement will come from within and we can only but welcome back Docherty and Williamson.....all being well.
The balance of the squad does look better though without 4 ruck-men on the books, just for starters.

A. Possible Senior Team -

Docherty Jones Plowman
SPS Weitering Marchbank

Kreuzer Cripps Murphy
Walsh ECurnow Setterfield

Martin CCurnow Cuningham
McGovern Betts McKay

Fisher Simpson Newnes Dow


B. Possible Seconds Team -

Newman Goddard BSilvagni
Stocker Macreadie Cottrell

Pittonet Kennedy Gibbons
O'Brien Kemp Williamson

O'Dwyer TDK Lang
Owies Casboult JSilvagni

Polson Philp Ramsay Phillips Honey

That seconds team has a decent spine and could cause some damage if the mids can get first hands onto the ball.
The bench though sure looks young....because it is. Not a lot of hardness across the ground and the boys could get beaten up a little again next year.

Big year for Macreadie now. Really need him to show what he did very early on in the piece.

The seconds also get the addition on the NBs also. Should help with Blakey, Collins, Fisher, Hill, Johnson, Keppel, O’Rourke, Palmer, Penrith, Anderson, Stavrou, Strachan, JLV, and Wilson

 

[BlueView]

B: Plowman Jones Simpson
HB: Docherty Weitering SPS
C: Fisher Cripps Setterfield
HF: Martin McKay McGovern
FF: Cunningham Curnow Betts
R: Kreuzer Walsh Murphy
I/C: E Curnow Marchbank JSOS Casboult

Posted this in the wrong thread

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Paddy D has played 39 games in his first two seasons and was still only 19yo at the end of last season. Not a bad start.

The only issue with him is that he still seems fairly immature as a footballer....he's got the skills, and speed, and knowhow, but still seems like a kid playing senior footy....which he actually was. We know there are man-childs out there at AFL level who probably reach their peak at 19 or 20, like a Jack Graham....Paddy aint one of them.

But his upside is still huge, and I think he'll be a ripper once he matures and his body starts to fill out. It wouldn't hurt to give him more time in the NB's to develop his game, we just need to be a little more patient.....and having Diesel at the club to mentor him doesn't hurt either.

Not since we had Yaz and Jeffy and Dennis and Juddy have we had players that we can surge into the forward half with speed as a collective....with Paddy and LO'B and our new recruits, that's something we can look forward to in a few years.

 

[Stamos]

The major problem that let's Dow's game down atm is his aerobic capacity to run and cover the ground that's necessay to play as not only a midfielder but when he was played forward later on in the season.
Sure his field kicking needs a little work and the set shots are a big letdown for him atm but it's his inability to keep up with the speed and repeat efforts of the game which is effecting all the strengths of his game.
Not being a naturally aerobic player he will take some time to get it to the required level where he'll start to gain the confidence in himself with not only the explosive offensive part of his game but the defensive part...

Happy to blame his interrupted pre-season for this, and give him the benefit of the doubt. Let’s see how he’s going half way through next year.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

I love this 22 - in particular the quality of players left off it. I have long though that we were too tall both up forward and in defence. I cringed at the matchups when teams went with 1 or 2 bigs and 4 or 5 small/mid forwards, and we had Jones, Weiters, Marchbank AND Plowman. I do prefer Marchbank to Plowman if both are available, but Lachie impressed me as the season went on so I’d be happy with either. We obviously need more polish coming out of D50, so SPS/Doc will help with that.
Likewise we were often too tall in the F50 and the ball was cleared from there far too easily. Would switch Harry to FF and a Charlie to CHF, and I think Mitch is better around the 50 than closer to goal, but I am aware that the positions these days are largely irrelevant.
My only other question with your 22 is the back up ruck role. Levi has performed that role brilliantly in 2019 and really see him doing so again. I’d look to sacrifice a runner off the bench to allow that flexibility - especially as the starting 18 has more run than this year’s. As we all know, Charlie and Harry are highly likely to miss multiple games this season, and I predict Levi to play more games than each of them.

Sorry for the rambling reply!
Overall, this 22 fills me with great optimism for 2020.

Yep it means we have great depth which means williamson, dow etc will play when they're ready and not earlier as opposed to previous years where the kids (i don't want to say gifted games) were played perhaps earlier than they should have.

The second ruck role has to be mckay. because we have 4 tall forwards we can't add another ruck to that unless one of them is injured. Would just be too tall. Very stiff on levi but like you say he's still likely to see a fair bit of first team game time this year.

 

[gotheJUDD]

 

[Jimmae]

Kemp qualifies as an LTI, but in order to sign another player you're putting him on the (separate) Season Injury List, and he cannot come off that list to play unless there's another LTI (temporarily) or Season Injury.

Given he's resuming in May-June, I don't see the reason for doing that.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

The following is all’IMO’.

I am thinking what our list looks like in 2020 as I warm up for the Consensus 22 and I think we have around 30 current players we’d be happy with in the Senior 22.

I project it as something like ...

Plowman. Jones. Docherty.
Marchbank. Weitering. SPS.
O’Brien. Ed Curnow. Setterfield.
Martin. Charlie Curnow. Murphy.
Betts. McKay. McGovern.
R. Kreuzer. Cripps. Walsh.
I. Newnes. Cuningham. Williamson. Simmo.

E. Stocker. Newman. Casboult. Dow. Fisher.
Stiff. TDK. JSOS. Kennedy. Gibbons.


Depth - Pittonet. Lang. Macreadie. Polson. Goddard.
Developing - Finbar. BSOS. Philp. Ramsay. Kemp. Cottrell. Owies. Honey. Phillips.

(Casboult and one of the other 4 in the emergency group should come into the Senior 22 for Charlie Curnow and Harry if they are not ready at the start of the year).


So looking at the emergencies and ‘stiff to miss’ group, we will have some decent players in the VFL side along with developing players (such as TDK, Finbar, Cottrell, Owies and our draftees / rookies, with Kemp playing in the second half of the season).

Simmo is one of the 30 and Polson and Goddard are not. To my mind they are the 3 that retire and we delist at the end of the year. Lang and Macreadie are the 2 that seem under pressure to have a good year to keep their spots.

After that it seems to be ‘who is trade bait?’.

If we can keep injury free, the competition for spots and players earning their Senior matches is a really good place to be.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Happy to blame his interrupted pre-season for this, and give him the benefit of the doubt. Let’s see how he’s going half way through next year.

There was a few mixed messages last preseason with the club saying he had an interrupted run into the season but track watchers saying he completed a high percentage of training, either way from early reports his shown some good signs already I'm expecting his game to improve aerobic wise but I'd say we will see a significant jump in 2022.

 

[HARKER]

Next year may be the first year we may be looking at trading out some youth.
It was never going to come about in recent years, but looks possible now, as we'll have a pretty good idea as to what our best 30 may look like.

It may also be the first year in over seven years, that the outgoing may be in single digit numbers. (We've averaged 12 players in the past seven seasons)
Players Lang, Polson, Macreadie (unfortunately) O'Dwyer and Goddard may be the first in the firing line.
We may though clock numbers up with retirements. Simpson, Murphy, Betts and maybe Casboult may assess whether to go on or not.

Without trades and maybe even with them, we may finally have a single digit exit at next years end.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Next year may be the first year we may be looking at trading out some youth.
It was never going to come about in recent years, but looks possible now, as we'll have a pretty good idea as to what our best 30 may look like.

It may also be the first year in over seven years, that the outgoing may be in single digit numbers. (We've averaged 12 players in the past seven seasons)
Players Lang, Polson, Macreadie (unfortunately) O'Dwyer and Goddard may be the first in the firing line.
We may though clock numbers up with retirements. Simpson, Murphy, Betts and maybe Casboult may assess whether to go on or not.

Without trades and maybe even with them, we may finally have a single digit exit at next years end.

Don't think so.

I'm confident that Teague and Agresta will want to keep our core group of young players together.

Some of our older guys will eventually retire in the years to come and more spots will open up.

Hopefully a maximum of 3-4 changes.

 

[Garters]

The following is all’IMO’.

I am thinking what our list looks like in 2020 as I warm up for the Consensus 22 and I think we have around 30 current players we’d be happy with in the Senior 22.

I project it as something like ...

Plowman. Jones. Docherty.
Marchbank. Weitering. SPS.
O’Brien. Ed Curnow. Setterfield.
Martin. Charlie Curnow. Murphy.
Betts. McKay. McGovern.
R. Kreuzer. Cripps. Walsh.
I. Newnes. Cuningham. Williamson. Simmo.

E. Stocker. Newman. Casboult. Dow. Fisher.
Stiff. TDK. JSOS. Kennedy. Gibbons.


Depth - Pittonet. Lang. Macreadie. Polson. Goddard.
Developing - Finbar. BSOS. Philp. Ramsay. Kemp. Cottrell. Owies. Honey. Phillips.

(Casboult and one of the other 4 in the emergency group should come into the Senior 22 for Charlie Curnow and Harry if they are not ready at the start of the year).


So looking at the emergencies and ‘stiff to miss’ group, we will have some decent players in the VFL side along with developing players (such as TDK, Finbar, Cottrell, Owies and our draftees / rookies, with Kemp playing in the second half of the season).

Simmo is one of the 30 and Polson and Goddard are not. To my mind they are the 3 that retire and we delist at the end of the year. Lang and Macreadie are the 2 that seem under pressure to have a good year to keep their spots.

After that it seems to be ‘who is trade bait?’.

If we can keep injury free, the competition for spots and players earning their Senior matches is a really good place to be.

Got to keep in mind we will be needing to replace Murphy, Simmo and Ed in the next season or two as well. So that would bump up three of the emergencies/ stiff a notch into starting lineup.

 

[HARKER]

Don't think so.
I'm confident that Teague and Agresta will want to keep our core group of young players together.
Some of our older guys will eventually retire in the years to come and more spots will open up.

Hopefully a maximum of 3-4 changes.

There will be more than 3-4 changes easily, once you factor in possible retirements.

We now have several young players who may not find a position in the main team so easily any more and it wouldn't surprise me at all should a team like Sydney come knocking.

There's likely to be another couple of mature players join us next year, making things even harder for some of the young guys and it may be prudent list management to look for trades with these guys. We will start losing some but we have to be selective in who we're willing to let go and why.

 

[gbatman]

There will be more than 3-4 changes easily, once you factor in possible retirements.

We now have several young players who may not find a position in the main team so easily any more and it wouldn't surprise me at all should a team like Sydney come knocking.

There's likely to be another couple of mature players join us next year, making things even harder for some of the young guys and it may be prudent list management to look for trades with these guys. We will start losing some but we have to be selective in who we're willing to let go and why.

I could see someone like Sydney chase Dow for instance. If we find he's not going real well and we have concerns over his kicking and aerobic capacity and they are desperate for a Kennedy replacement then we just might do it, particularly if Papley is a part of the deal and other young midfielders step up.

Something like that. I can sure see us trading out if things go our way and we can do it without losing much depth or quality.

 

[HARKER]

I could see someone like Sydney chase Dow for instance. If we find he's not going real well and we have concerns over his kicking and aerobic capacity and they are desperate for a Kennedy replacement then we just might do it, particularly if Papley is a part of the deal and other young midfielders step up.

Something like that. I can sure see us trading out if things go our way and we can do it without losing much depth or quality.

Sydney had its eye on O'Brien and it has every right to keep a tab on him...and Dow. I agree.

Some of the young guys will fall off the grid to some degree and we should always be looking to trade to advantage.

 

[agro]

Sydney had its eye on O'Brien and it has every right to keep a tab on him...and Dow. I agree.

Some of the young guys will fall off the grid to some degree and we should always be looking to trade to advantage.

If Dow and O’Brien have to be moved on because we aren’t happy with how they’ve progressed then Pick 3 & 10 in that draft that SOS structured looks less and less good (sorry bad grammar there).

 

[Robertio]

Sydney had its eye on O'Brien and it has every right to keep a tab on him...and Dow. I agree.

Some of the young guys will fall off the grid to some degree and we should always be looking to trade to advantage.

Not O'brien, his first 200 games will be with us, oozes class.

 

[El Topo]

If Dow and O’Brien have to be moved on because we aren’t happy with how they’ve progressed then Pick 3 & 10 in that draft that SOS structured looks less and less good (sorry bad grammar there).

depends how you rate the rest of that draft...

 

[cfc05]

Carlton and the Gold Coast suns will trade picks before the national draft.
Gold Coast will at the same time, conveniently delist Martin.
Carlton will recruit Martin as a delisted free agent.

Now my guess:
Carlton give 9, 43 and 57
Suns give 15, 20 and 78 (delist Martin)

Funny, we did go the PSD route. However the trade was pretty spot on.

Ended up 9 and 57 for 15 and 20. I had 43 and 78 swapping on top as mayo for them.

Why would gold coast do that? I would take that in a heartbeat as a carlton fan.

Looks like Gold coast wanted too on the night Frumpy, as predicted they want "top end talent". The trade with Geelong was a joke!

neither club would do that, and the AFL won’t allow it

Funny, the AFL should have stopped the Geelong trade, but the one I predicted helped both teams - made even clearer on the night when SOS predicted Kemp would slide.

We wouldn't do that deal - at least I certainly hope we wouldn't.

Keep 9, take Martin for nowt, give the Suns' the middle finger for trying to take us for a ride.

I am wrapt we did the deal and got 2 good prospects for the trading of pick 9. It is now interesting when you put actual players names to it, are you now happy?

Not sure why people think we need to do a deal with the Suns.

I am pretty sure we will be in no hurry to do a deal with them any time soon, let alone do them a favor.

GC are not our worry re: Martin. They can huff and puff all they like but he will not be there in 2020.

Melbourne is our only slight concern at this stage.

I never thought we needed to do a deal Jeremias, I wanted to. As I stated then, I don't think a grudge was going to help anyone - if we could do a deal that helped both clubs, not going to let past events stop it. Appears SOS thought the trade helped Carlton, and I personally agree.

Interested to know if you now think we did them a favor?

 

[DamianBis]

With regards to the dow commentary further up... I really rate dow but would like him to play VFL for a large portion of this coming season.. he looks like he could be a Dangerfield type player in the middle.. I don't think he's got the forward craft that danger has.

Playing in the VFL will let him hit packs and burst away from them and kick the ball in match situations more often. I think it's no surprise he regressed when he lost his midfield spot and was put into a pocket.

On CPH1831 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[El Topo]

With regards to the dow commentary further up... I really rate dow but would like him to play VFL for a large portion of this coming season.. he looks like he could be a Dangerfield type player in the middle.. I don't think he's got the forward craft that danger has.

Playing in the VFL will let him hit packs and burst away from them and kick the ball in match situations more often. I think it's no surprise he regressed when he lost his midfield spot and was put into a pocket.

On CPH1831 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Could also be a good way to develop his leadership and intiative. Our management of Paddy thus far hasn't done him any favours.