Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

Clems Knee

Norm Smith Medallist
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But what you think we could get for a trade and what was actually possible are likely to be very different. We had a plan in place if Henry got bid before #7 but you think they didn't do their homework on all the possible options should a bid come at #9?

It cost Brisbane a future 2nd to go up just one pick in the 2nd round. Clearly future picks (especially after the 1st round) had very little value this trade and draft period. You look at all the trades done using future picks and no club got good value out of them but people are expecting we should have? At least we got a 2nd rounder equivalent back from our future 2nd. If another club (that wasn't waiting to match bids) had multiple 3rd/4th rd picks worth points I would agree we could have reduced our deficit further - unfortunately none did. You can only work with the cards that are available to you.

We effectively got a pick #9 without spending our future 1st - we just downgraded it by 2 picks. As a comparison it cost Melbourne their future 1st (they finished 2nd bottom remember), #26 and #50 to get pick #8 originally.

Without our own future 2nd and a downgraded 1st we should also be motivated to climb the ladder. If we make finals a 2 pick downgrade from say #10 to #12 will look like nothing at all. It'll only look bad if we finish bottom 4 - so lets not.

And the worse we finish, the less the downgrade will be anyway.
 

maccamk

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Points and picks are just numbers. It the output you get out of those points and picks that matters. It is a very one dimensional view to say we need to improve when you cant see and don’t know what metrics the club use to measure draft success.

If you really want to get into it you also need to look at draft board positioning of the players we pick up.

Throwing stones at our recruiters is like laughing at Columbus for saying the world is round


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But what you think we could get for a trade and what was actually possible are likely to be very different. We had a plan in place if Henry got bid before #7 but you think they didn't do their homework on all the possible options should a bid come at #9?

It cost Brisbane a future 2nd to go up just one pick in the 2nd round. Clearly future picks (especially after the 1st round) had very little value this trade and draft period. You look at all the trades done using future picks and no club got good value out of them but people are expecting we should have? At least we got a 2nd rounder equivalent back from our future 2nd. If another club (that wasn't waiting to match bids) had multiple 3rd/4th rd picks worth points I would agree we could have reduced our deficit further - unfortunately none did. You can only work with the cards that are available to you.

We effectively got a pick #9 without spending our future 1st - we just downgraded it by 2 picks. As a comparison it cost Melbourne their future 1st (they finished 2nd bottom remember), #26 and #50 to get pick #8 originally.

Without our own future 2nd and a downgraded 1st we should also be motivated to climb the ladder. If we make finals a 2 pick downgrade from say #10 to #12 will look like nothing at all. It'll only look bad if we finish bottom 4 - so lets not.
I think its poor negotiating not to get 45 instead of 49 from Adelaide, especially when 49 becomes 48 after a bid is matched anyway. Adelaide are just being dicks for the sake of it at that stage.

I suppose we can leave the PA trade and right it down to "we'll never know what clubs were doing"

We could have bid on Green and there would be no points deficit.

The Brisbane trade isnt comparative. There were several clubs trying to get that pick so they had to outbid others. The first 2nd round pick will always have a stupid amount of value because of the overnight trading
 

blue shark

Norm Smith Medallist
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Points and picks are just numbers. It the output you get out of those points and picks that matters. It is a very one dimensional view to say we need to improve when you cant see and don’t know what metrics the club use to measure draft success.

If you really want to get into it you also need to look at draft board positioning of the players we pick up.

Throwing stones at our recruiters is like laughing at Columbus for saying the world is round


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Compared to Lloyd, Bond, I'd take Bell over them both. Lloyd got better but we had an entire post
on him, warts and all.
Bell is far from perfect, the Hogan trade could go either way, but he has time on his side. I'm pretty happy with
Lobb 😀
What stands out now is the character, work ethic, with the list, Plus Skills.
We have been lucky with Mitch Clark, Cloke and unlucky with Bennell, free agency appears to be the best way
to target Messiah players.
 

Superkoops

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I think its poor negotiating not to get 45 instead of 49 from Adelaide, especially when 49 becomes 48 after a bid is matched anyway. Adelaide are just being dicks for the sake of it at that stage.

I suppose we can leave the PA trade and right it down to "we'll never know what clubs were doing"

We could have bid on Green and there would be no points deficit.

The Brisbane trade isnt comparative. There were several clubs trying to get that pick so they had to outbid others. The first 2nd round pick will always have a stupid amount of value because of the overnight trading
I agree - we could have squeezed a bit more out of Adelaide.

With regards to Port trade I had a look at a few different scenario’s and I don’t think we could have done much better in terms of points. The two picks we got were the equivalent of pick 38. What we should have done is got fourth rounder for 2020. The pick 66 we gave them is irrelevant because we couldn’t use for the bid match. If we did the trade at our pick 8 and placed a bid at that time on Green our position would have less of a deficit and a pick in the fourth round.

I understand posters getting annoyed with focus on pts but that is where the draft has headed unfortunately.

Your earlier pt about our club thoroughly reviewing live trading to improve for next year is very valid.
 

wayToGo_

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I think its poor negotiating not to get 45 instead of 49 from Adelaide, especially when 49 becomes 48 after a bid is matched anyway. Adelaide are just being dicks for the sake of it at that stage.

I suppose we can leave the PA trade and right it down to "we'll never know what clubs were doing"

We could have bid on Green and there would be no points deficit.

The Brisbane trade isnt comparative. There were several clubs trying to get that pick so they had to outbid others. The first 2nd round pick will always have a stupid amount of value because of the overnight trading
Fair enough - I don't personally agree with any of these points...

I think the Brisbane trade is relevant because they were the only club that could offer just a one pick downgrade.

I don't think we should have bid on Green because I don't think you should bid on a player you don't rate as high as others still available (I personally think Green was over rated by Twomey - he always overrates the GWS academy kids imo, I assume because he has a heap of info about them). Id' certainly have Young ahead of Green, and Twomey had he and Serong ahead of him for most of the year.

I think the live Port trade is about what you can expect given what was available/other trades. It was certainly better than taking a ~700 point deficit into 2020.

The 45 instead of 49 is a minute detail in the grand scheme. What would it have been worth? An extra ~60 points or so?

The day before the draft I ran a few scenarios myself and I was really worried about a bid before #7 or Carlton at #9 because the only way I could see us ending up with no deficit is if we got a pick in the 30s equivalent back for our future 2nd. That seemed highly unlikely given other trades that weren't getting anything close to that. So I was really hoping Twomey was right and the Henry bid would come later.

Given the masters of working bids and points (GWS) still got stuck with a deficit despite Green getting bid on far later than most anticipated I feel fairly comfortable that our Freo recruitment team did a reasonable job.

BTW if I had have run the scenarios before the draft and seen some real opportunities to do better than we did I'd be making the same criticisms as you are. I think you are basing it on "gut feels" rather than reality though.
 

theGav56

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If we can trade for Sam Taylor, Hill, from GWS in the future then the goodwill may pay off?
People complain on here about Bell, but when you think of the previous regime and the 2 first rounders
for McCarthy. The trading for Silvia, Gumbleton, Anthony, no wonder we fell off a cliff, that's besides chasing
talls, thank God they didn't take the money, we got outbid.
I don't think many complain about Bell, which I think is a quite different thing than making comments or observations about what happened during trading and drafting. The AFL has made massive changes to the player recruitment landscape over the past few years and it will take all clubs some time to adjust. Those adjustments get made by doing a review of what happened, what worked, and what could have been done better. That is what is being discussed.

Personally I think we could have done better in some areas but overall rate the work done very highly.

I also think it would be pretty immature if clubs hold any kind of grudge because of bidding on players who are available. At some stage Green gets bid on, and he would be a legitimate target for Fremantle for a competitive price at pick 8. GWS traded well ahead of that pick to ensure they got in another top talent, so they already anticipated an earlier bid than what we could have done. He certainly doesn't get to them as a Cat B.

But if you want Taylor and Hill, you draft Green and offer him in a trade deal next year.

Also worth noting that you are talking about developing goodwill with the club who refused to discuss trading McCarthy despite his clear issues, eventually forcing him to sit out for a year. I don't think that history has a long lasting effect in the scheme of things, and we did indeed trade with them the following year.

Its business.
 
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Superkoops

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For those counting the points.

Has anyone accounted for the change to the Port picks if we had forced GWS at pick 8.


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Yep unchanged - GWS had pick 40

Therefore 40 moves forward and the rest of the order between 40 to 58 remains unchanged. Then they also had 59/60 so picks after 60 move forward two spots including our own 66 to 64 which instead of just giving away we could have swapped for a fourth rounder knowing that after a bid on Henry (which I expected in the first 14 selections) to push that up a further 3 spots to 61.
 

Paracleet

Emotion is not going to get the job done..
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For those counting the points.

Has anyone accounted for the change to the Port picks if we had forced GWS at pick 8.


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It's earlier in the thread.

(They stay the same. The only time a later pick will move up or down in those circumstances is if there are no picks to be consumed between it and the pick the bid is at, or more than one. If there is one, as there was in this case, it's + 1 - 1 = 0 movement)
 

Purpellian Anchor

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Oct 14, 2011
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Reflecting on some of the comments as to whether we could have done better, especially wanting no deficit (me too), it is pretty much expecting all positive outcomes in a "storm of chaos". Behind the scenes it is hard to know what was offered and what was not, or even what could have been.

With clubs all beating the door down for their own ends and advantage during the draft, getting favourable deals with eyes on a certain player but in relation to other clubs likely choices, then throw in bidding scenerios, there has to be a lot of luck and timing as well as clever strategy.

During and at the end of proceedings, 2019 draft, it was also important for the club to be confident about their ability and future strategy to work our way into a better position in the 2020 draft if needs be. I suspect that was/is the case.
 

heypenny

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Read something the other day that we only have 8 left on the entire list from 2016

I was thinking about this last night (while I couldn't sleep).

We built our squad around three drafts ten years ago (2007-09) - picking up Mayne, Ibbo, Hill, Suban, Ballas, Clarke, De Boer, Walters, C Pearce, Fyfe and Barlow (not incl Palmer and Mora). Pretty amazing to pick up pick up 11 best 22 players in three drafts.

I'm hoping 2016-19 is the same for us too - Logue, Cox, Darcy, Ryan, Brayshaw, Cerra, Sturt, Valentine, Serong, Young and Henry. We'll have to wait and see
 

heypenny

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Reflecting on some of the comments as to whether we could have done better, especially wanting no deficit (me too), it is pretty much expecting all positive outcomes in a "storm of chaos". Behind the scenes it is hard to know what was offered and what was not, or even what could have been.

With clubs all beating the door down for their own ends and advantage during the draft, getting favourable deals with eyes on a certain player but in relation to other clubs likely choices, then throw in bidding scenerios, there has to be a lot of luck and timing as well as clever strategy.

During and at the end of proceedings, 2019 draft, it was also important for the club to be confident about their ability and future strategy to work our way into a better position in the 2020 draft if needs be. I suspect that was/is the case.

It was frustrating how it ended (but I don't think anyone expected Henry to be bid on before Green). The shoe will be on the other foot in future and we'll be able get favourable deals for teams desperate to move up the order.

On reflection of this draft it would be ideal to have multiple third round picks in 2020. With all the academy players tied to clubs (and desperate for points) it would be very favourable to accumulate picks in the 30s-50s that you can package up for early second-rounders.
 
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It was frustrating how it ended (but I don't think anyone expected Henry to be bid on before Green). The shoe will be on the other foot in future and we'll be able get favourable deals for teams desperate to move up the order.

On reflection of this draft it would be ideal to have multiple third round picks in 2020. With all the academy players tied to clubs (and desperate for points) it would be very favourable to accumulate picks in the 30s-50s that you can package up for early second-rounders.

To have these picks you need room on your team sheet.

Who’s getting cut next year for these multiple picks.

I doubt we’ll have as many spot available next year.
 

heypenny

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To have these picks you need room on your team sheet.

Who’s getting cut next year for these multiple picks.

I doubt we’ll have as many spot available next year.

I understand this but you don't settle list spots until deep into November. Judging by what happened this year - third round picks (and points in general) could be hot property during trade week and in the lead up to the draft.

I'm not criticising the club - they did the best they could under the circumstances but just thinking about longer-term trading and drafting trends.
 

Dockeroo

Norm Smith Medallist
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Maybe a draft expert here can help with this:
We only have a first rounder and a second rounder for next season. So say for example we have 4 list spots available on draft night 2020, we will automatically receive 2 picks that slot in and the end of the draft order, nominally something along the lines of 84 & 85?
Given there will be a huge about of picks that disappear ahead of us as academy and F/S bids are matched, those picks will probably jump forward very significantly and could end up in the 50s maybe?? Is that realistic or not?
There was only 65 players selected this year on the main draft which effectively means that 4th rounders are getting passed on.
I know we will have our own academy kids to match on but it sounds like they could well be late/rookie draft bids anyway.. Apart from maybe Joel Western. thoughts?
 

Danny82

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Maybe a draft expert here can help with this:
We only have a first rounder and a second rounder for next season. So say for example we have 4 list spots available on draft night 2020, we will automatically receive 2 picks that slot in and the end of the draft order, nominally something along the lines of 84 & 85?
Given there will be a huge about of picks that disappear ahead of us as academy and F/S bids are matched, those picks will probably jump forward very significantly and could end up in the 50s maybe?? Is that realistic or not?
There was only 65 players selected this year on the main draft which effectively means that 4th rounders are getting passed on.
I know we will have our own academy kids to match on but it sounds like they could well be late/rookie draft bids anyway.. Apart from maybe Joel Western. thoughts?

Certainly not a draft expert, but we would have a round 6 and round 7 pick. They would come sliding in as the bids come and teams pass. Although, they need to be low enough to have points at the time of any of our bids.

I’d be certain we’d do a downgrade of our first round pick next year. If this year taught us anything you are best leaving this to the day before the draft or live trade to get maximum value. When going the upgrade route need to do this as early as possible.
 

theGav56

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Maybe a draft expert here can help with this:
We only have a first rounder and a second rounder for next season. So say for example we have 4 list spots available on draft night 2020, we will automatically receive 2 picks that slot in and the end of the draft order, nominally something along the lines of 84 & 85?
Given there will be a huge about of picks that disappear ahead of us as academy and F/S bids are matched, those picks will probably jump forward very significantly and could end up in the 50s maybe?? Is that realistic or not?
There was only 65 players selected this year on the main draft which effectively means that 4th rounders are getting passed on.
I know we will have our own academy kids to match on but it sounds like they could well be late/rookie draft bids anyway.. Apart from maybe Joel Western. thoughts?
Really difficult to predict what picks we will actually have this far out. I am not a draft expert, but I think your comment about picks at the end of the draft.

On the face of it, if we had an NGA player bid on after that 2nd pick, we cannot match. We may not be able to match with a bid after our 1st.
 

Paracleet

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Really difficult to predict what picks we will actually have this far out. I am not a draft expert, but I think your comment about picks at the end of the draft.

On the face of it, if we had an NGA player bid on after that 2nd pick, we cannot match. We may not be able to match with a bid after our 1st.
You match with points from that round in the following draft.
 

Purpletown

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Players that are out of contract at the end of next year,

Mundy (retire?)
Matera
Cox
Bewely
Dixon
Carter
Schultz
Valente
North
Banfield
McCarthy
Pina
Watson
O'Reilly

We're going to have vacancy's at the end of the year, none of those players can afford to have poor seasons.

The list managment in regard to the better players would appear to be sound as those players are almost to a man the guys who will be candidates for getting pushed out the door at the end of 2020. A few of the players on that list still have time on their side but most would be keen to stay fit and give it their best shot this coming season.
Most of the best 22 and the younger guys with time to prove themselves are under contract past the end of 2020. Not that contracts are as watertight as they once were.
 
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