Red Dog Styles
Club Legend
You know your tips are good when its only post-day 2 and you're bowler cashes after only 32 overs!
Ausurn you are having some kind of a summer!
On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Cricket Betting. Best Cricket Tipster in the land in here.
- Thread starter Austoraisetheurn
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Ausurn you are having some kind of a summer!
On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Red Dog Styles
Club Legend
Dude I would rather you spend more time looking forward and researching future winnings.
We all know you started slow but are well on top now, would be a waste to use that research time on that.
On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
- Jun 16, 2018
- 8,782
- 15,764
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Colin de Grandhomme has hit four fifties and a 23* in his last five test digs.
What odds would you want for CDG 50+ today?
What odds would you want for CDG 50+ today?
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #354
Righto lads,
Overall P and L is as follows:
21 wins
8 pushes
29 losses
-5.27 units (-10.54% ROI)
Overall P and L is as follows:
21 wins
8 pushes
29 losses
-5.27 units (-10.54% ROI)
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #355
Including bets with odds of $3.00 or less.
35 bets
+4.83 units (13.8 ROI)
35 bets
+4.83 units (13.8 ROI)
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #356
All bets including 4s/6s Under or Over and all odds.
15 bets
+3.83 units (ROI 25.5%)
15 bets
+3.83 units (ROI 25.5%)
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #357
A lot of cheeky lads have been here hanging s**t on me for months.
Yet i have struck with it and have pulled back to near parity when you include every bet I made, including large odds and long shots.
Lets all get around each other.
Winners are grinners.
Let's grin.
Yet i have struck with it and have pulled back to near parity when you include every bet I made, including large odds and long shots.
Lets all get around each other.
Winners are grinners.
Let's grin.
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,221
- 18,899
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Respect for keeping it real.
I frequent another punting forum & there are so many fraudulent punters it makes you laugh. Burge definitely knows what I’m talking about.
Get around the Urn
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #361
I have taken each bet as level stakes....Even $5.00 dollar long shots. Clearly, in reality, your stakes arent level when you back a $5.00 shot v a $2.00 dollar shot. But for my record I have assumed level stakes....as it should be.
- Mar 17, 2014
- 10,877
- 12,777
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
if you stake to bet less on long shots you are doing it wrong
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #363
Staking is about margin above assessed price.
Something you assessed @ $1.40 and could get $3
vs
Something you assessed at $2.70 and could get $3
Would you bet the same amount on each, just because they are both priced at $3.00?
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #365
I'm not here to argue. I'm here to keep posting the best tips in the business.
Ind v WI ODI
K.Yadav O1.5 wickets @ $2.70 (topsport)
These odds should be $1.70
Ind v WI ODI
K.Yadav O1.5 wickets @ $2.70 (topsport)
These odds should be $1.70
- Mar 17, 2014
- 10,877
- 12,777
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Good staking plans can increase your value immensely.
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,221
- 18,899
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I disagree.
It is about your level of competitive advantage, but long shots certainly impact my betting stakes.
Example
I evaluate outcome A at $5 and am getting $10 on the books. Then I evaluate outcome B at $250 and am getting $500 on the books. I see no reason why you would stake the same no. Units.
- Mar 17, 2014
- 10,877
- 12,777
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Thats an extreme example, but what if you are getting $20 about your $5 chance? are you going to bet less even though you still rate it a $5 chance? in this case i would have a bigger bet on it because its a very rare occasion where you think you have totally outsmarted the books. It happens and if you have a good betting edge its what you should be doing.
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #369
Depends on the amount of variance in the market for mine.
Recent posts have hit the nail on the head. It is all about the staking plan.
Austoraisetheurn has some great value tips but would be very interested to know his staking plan.
Would also be very interested to know how much he can get set for withbthe corporates and if he needs to use bowler accounts all the time.
I only bet on match results on test cricket and only use Betfair as I can’t be fxxxxd with bowler accounts and having accounts banned etc.
Definitely a great thread though!
Austoraisetheurn has some great value tips but would be very interested to know his staking plan.
Would also be very interested to know how much he can get set for withbthe corporates and if he needs to use bowler accounts all the time.
I only bet on match results on test cricket and only use Betfair as I can’t be fxxxxd with bowler accounts and having accounts banned etc.
Definitely a great thread though!
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #371
I personally use the Kelly criterion to get an estimated stake and then my final stake is 30% of the original kelly criterion value.
My main aim is survival...it isn't necessarily maximising profit. Maintaining your bankroll is the name of the game in my book.
People can apply these principles whether your acc is $100 or $10 000.
Ben Stokes in the winter was chronically underrated by the bookies to be Engs top bat scorer in odi and test matches. From memory, often he was priced up at $8.00 when he should have been $4.00...
Those days are now gone as the market makers have cottoned onto this efficiency. However, even if you loaded up on Stokes, it is still conceivable that he can go a lot of games without winning this market.
It isn't bad punting, just the nature of the game and variance. If you over stake, even in such a mispriced market, you can easily face ruin.
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #372
If I can find a market that salutes 60% of the time @ $2.40 and an expected ROI of 44%. Then that is much preferable than finding a market that salutes 25% of the time at $6.00 for an ROI of 50%.
Variance will be much greater in theory in the market that salutes 25% Of the time. For me, I'm happy to shave a bit of profit if I can reduce the variance.
Variance will be much greater in theory in the market that salutes 25% Of the time. For me, I'm happy to shave a bit of profit if I can reduce the variance.
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #373
I'm not a high roller..truth be told, I just love the numbers and statistics. Total exposure to any match often won't go over $100.
Enough For a candlelit dinner at pizza hut and a taxi ride home from the local....hopefully with a bird in the back.
Austoraisetheurn
Cancelled
- Aug 25, 2019
- 619
- 976
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Thread starter
- #375
