Opinion Only three teams can win the flag

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Not sure about that.
 
Bruce didn't exactly set St Kilda alight, to be fair, which means the Doggie's forward line - their glaring weak point - is still pretty average. I'd say there's 6 teams in with a shot this year, in this order:

West Coast, Richmond, GWS, Brisbane, Geelong, Bulldogs, Collingwood. Carlton, Saints and Melbourne the big finals smokey's
 
GWS are definite flag contenders. People are overlooking them because they got pumped in last year's GF. Foolish. Richmond would've flogged everyone that day and nothing went right for GWS. They're not as bad as what they looked. Just one of those days and best forgotten. It was a gutsy effort by them just to get into the GF despite not playing their best footy throughout 2019.

Remember, they finished runners-up despite having a shocking run of injuries to many of their gun players
  • Lachie Whitfield - missed 7 games and was carrying an injury/underdone on GF day
  • Steven Coniglio - missed the last 11 matches with a knee injury
  • Callan Ward - missed the entire season with a knee injury
  • Toby Greene - missed 6 games due to injury and missed the Prelim Final due to suspension.
  • Josh Kelly - missed 8 games due to soft tissue injuries and wasn't himself over the closing month and a half
Look at those names. (Add Taranto, Williams and Hopper and it's undoubtedly the deepest midfield in the comp). Greene and Kelly are Top 10 calibre players. Both of them are jets who had a chequered run in 2019 and weren't able to play their best footy for more than 2-3 games. You watch them light it up in 2020.

To further add to their midfield injury woes in 2019, Matt de Boer missed 7 games late in the season with a shoulder injury. Not a big name, but he was very effective in a tagging role. Brett Deledio may have also been handy, but he couldn't take a trick and limped through his final season.

Their skipper & best defender, Phil Davis was injured early on Prelim Final day and was ineffective in the GF. Young gun defender Sam Taylor was also hurt. Then factor in their ruck issues with big Mummy clearly labouring with his lack of fitness. At times, he was a liability. Jacobs is a big upgrade.

---------------------------------------------------------------

People are always too harsh on beaten Grand Finalists and think they're just gonna fall away. More often than not, teams use the disappointment as a spur to have another decent crack at the flag. Sometimes they go one better. The Giants are clearly no flash-in-the-pan pretenders. They've been thereabouts for the past 4 seasons and endured rotten luck with injuries in that time. With better luck, they could've won a couple of flags by now.

They clearly have the best depth of A-grade talent in the comp (with a big gap to whoever is second.) Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves. When they put it together for a quarter or for a half, their best footy is unbelievable. They just haven't had the mental toughness and steely resolve to maintain it. They can play like millionaires and get a bit ahead of themselves. That's just a maturity issue, I think. Really, it's only a matter of when, not "if".

The Giants would be stung by their pitiful performance v Richmond. They don't strike me as a flaky pissweak team who was lucky to get there. Nor did they have a dream season with nearly everything going their way like it did for the Crows in 2017. I think GWS will use their GF humiliation to go one better, or at the very least, give it another decent shake.

They still have plenty of upside and a plenty of improving young A-grade talent: Taranto, Hopper and Himmelberg have only played 60 games. Finlayson and Taylor have only played 30 games. Bobby Hill is another exciting talent with x-factor.

Brent Daniels (pick 27 in 2017, 25 games in 2019)
Sam Taylor (pick 28 in 2017, 22 games in 2019)
Jye Caldwell (pick 11 in 2018)
Jack Hateley (pick 14 in 2018)
Bobby Hill (pick 24 in 2018, 7 games in 2019)
Lachlan Ash (pick 4 in 2019)
Tom Green (pick 10 in 2019)
 
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Captain chaos said:
Moronic? Gee thats tough. It is my opinion based on my assessment of a variety of factors. Remember, we have the last three premiership coaches here.
Click to expand...

Its a long and often unpredictable season, there are clearly more than 3 teams who can win the premiership if luck, no injuries and good form goes their way.
 
I think this thread needs some random statistical facts to assure the general population that there are more
than three teams capable of holding aloft the premiership on the day they run the Grand Final Sprint.

1990 to 2019: (Ladder position to eventual premier)

!st: 9 x occasions out of 30 x years or a percentage of 30.00%
2nd: 11 x occasions out of 30 x years or a percentage of 36.67%
3rd: 6 x occasions out of 30 x years or a percentage of 20.00%
4th: 2 x occasions out of 30 x years or a percentage of 6.67%

5th: 1 x occasion out of 30 x years or a percentage of 3.33%
6th: 0 x occasion out of 30 x years or a percentage of 0.00%
7th: 1 x occasion out of 30 x years or a percentage of 3.33%
8th: 0 x occasion out of 30 x years or a percentage of 0.00%

So to sum up that historical journey through the birth of the national competition if a club (Insert Name)
manages to finish first, second or third they (Insert Name) have an 86.67% chance of holding aloft the
premiership cup. So technically the OP is simply stating that those three teams will be Richmond,
West Coast and the Western Bulldogs. Now I don't come out with such random prophecy I pay good
money and go to the wise woman, and she and only she determines the depth and spend of my season
multi. When you think about it saying one of the last three premiers will win the flag is sound logic for
not all can taste the bitterness of injury can they ? The wise woman suggested a five club multi by the
way and the three teams listed were in the five named by the wise woman. In all of the anomaly years
2016, 1998, 1997 and 1992 the anomaly team (Insert Name) defeated the minor premier.
 

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Back One Out said:
Remember, they finished runners-up despite having a shocking run of injuries to many of their gun players
Click to expand...

When was the last year they didn't have a 'shocking injury run to star players'?

If it keeps happening, then you've got to wonder if it's really bad luck, or a bad medical setup.


Have they had major changes to their prep and medical setup? If not, why would we expect different this year?
 
Last edited:
Back One Out said:
GWS are definite flag contenders. People are overlooking them because they got pumped in last year's GF. Foolish. Richmond would've flogged everyone that day and nothing went right for GWS. They're not as bad as what they looked. Just one of those days and best forgotten. It was a gutsy effort by them just to get into the GF despite not playing their best footy throughout 2019.

Remember, they finished runners-up despite having a shocking run of injuries to many of their gun players
  • Lachie Whitfield - missed 7 games and was carrying an injury/underdone on GF day
  • Steven Coniglio - missed the last 11 matches with a knee injury
  • Callan Ward - missed the entire season with a knee injury
  • Toby Greene - missed 6 games due to injury and missed the Prelim Final due to suspension.
  • Josh Kelly - missed 8 games due to soft tissue injuries and wasn't himself over the closing month and a half
Look at those names. (Add Taranto, Williams and Hopper and it's undoubtedly the deepest midfield in the comp). Greene and Kelly are Top 10 calibre players. Both of them are jets who had a chequered run in 2019 and weren't able to play their best footy for more than 2-3 games. You watch them light it up in 2020.

To further add to their midfield injury woes in 2019, Matt de Boer missed 7 games late in the season with a shoulder injury. Not a big name, but he was very effective in a tagging role. Brett Deledio may have also been handy, but he couldn't take a trick and limped through his final season.

Their skipper & best defender, Phil Davis was injured early on Prelim Final day and was ineffective in the GF. Young gun defender Sam Taylor was also hurt. Then factor in their ruck issues with big Mummy clearly labouring with his lack of fitness. At times, he was a liability. Jacobs is a big upgrade.

---------------------------------------------------------------

People are always too harsh on beaten Grand Finalists and think they're just gonna fall away. More often than not, teams use the disappointment as a spur to have another decent crack at the flag. Sometimes they go one better. The Giants are clearly no flash-in-the-pan pretenders. They've been thereabouts for the past 4 seasons and endured rotten luck with injuries in that time. With better luck, they could've won a couple of flags by now.

They clearly have the best depth of A-grade talent in the comp (with a big gap to whoever is second.) Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves. When they put it together for a quarter or for a half, their best footy is unbelievable. They just haven't had the mental toughness and steely resolve to maintain it. They can play like millionaires and get a bit ahead of themselves. That's just a maturity issue, I think. Really, it's only a matter of when, not "if".

The Giants would be stung by their pitiful performance v Richmond. They don't strike me as a flaky pissweak team who was lucky to get there. Nor did they have a dream season with nearly everything going their way like it did for the Crows in 2017. I think GWS will use their GF humiliation to go one better, or at the very least, give it another decent shake.

They still have plenty of upside and a plenty of improving young A-grade talent: Taranto, Hopper and Himmelberg have only played 60 games. Finlayson and Taylor have only played 30 games. Bobby Hill is another exciting talent with x-factor.

Brent Daniels (pick 27 in 2017, 25 games in 2019)
Sam Taylor (pick 28 in 2017, 22 games in 2019)
Jye Caldwell (pick 11 in 2018)
Jack Hateley (pick 14 in 2018)
Bobby Hill (pick 24 in 2018, 7 games in 2019)
Lachlan Ash (pick 4 in 2019)
Tom Green (pick 10 in 2019)
Click to expand...

Gee you are kind to kelly there. Green missing six games an issue? They win tge prelim without him. Richmond had a lot of players miss a lot mire games who could have been underdone , as did collibgwood.

i also mentioned coaching as a factor...which you didnt.
 
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Captain chaos said:
Moronic? Gee thats tough. It is my opinion based on my assessment of a variety of factors. Remember, we have the last three premiership coaches here.
Click to expand...
The issue is you haven’t let anyone know what your assessment was based on. Your second post mentioning Bruce and Keath isn’t an assessment, just a singular line of opinion.
 
Last edited:
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