The Bigfooty Official Week 14 NBA Thread. The return of Zion

[fidstar]

Significant disagreement. PER is and has been for a while a pretty damn accurate measurement how to judge a baller. I'd give it a 95 out of 100.

This.

Overrates high percentage shooting centers and doesn't fully account for defense, but it's one of the better stats.

 

[fidstar]

Houston's offense is amazing.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

PER is only (moderately) useful when comparing like for like.

If you want to use it to compare a big man, a wing and a point guard... forget it. It will tell you that Javale McGee is on a par with Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell and Brandon Ingram.

 

[Scallop Industry Thug]

And that defensive wings who don’t stuff stat sheet are duds.

 

[peternorth]

Arguments can be made for stats etc hence why i said what goes on off the court in the locker room etc, should count towards the amount of money in the contract.
Again he's on a better team and doesn't need the ball as much so of course he PER won't meet his value in contract dollars.
Plus if he stayed in Charolette he would've made the supermax 221 million over 5 years, which is 44 mil a year lol.
For what he brings to our team i don't think he is overpaid but that's my opinion.

wut?

 

[DangerSloane]

Rozier was one of the worst players in the entire league last season in Boston though.

In a vacuum, he is overpaid at nearly $20 million. Now that doesn't necessarily mean that the Hornets made the wrong decision in signing him to salvage something from Kemba's departure. With your cap sheet bloated, your team in the lottery and a dearth of quality free agents, it wasn't a mortal sin to overpay in the short term to bring an experienced body in. It's not a terrible deal for Charlotte, right now.

However if any of the teams who splurged in July in order to try to win a title - Lakers, Clippers, Nets, Bucks, Jazz, Pacers, Sixers, Celtics, etc etc - had signed Rozier to the same deal that he got in Charlotte, they wouldn't be in a good place right now. Not that the Lakers spending $15 million and then $8 million on KCP was a good decision either, but you know what I mean.

Any team worth their salt would be wary giving Rozier an eight figure salary. The Hornets gave him double that. It is what it is.

But this season, in Charlotte, he's a quality starting PG.

Why does what he did last season have anything to do with whether he is overpaid now?

I just dont see how you can say that Rozier is overpaid when everyone around him salary wise is worse.
By definition that says that hes not overpaid.

Allen Crabbe, Evan Turner, Jeff Teague and Tyler Johnson are paid the same if not more than him.
There are 20 other names I could put here too and half of those are existing contracts too which makes it even worse (not part of the new salary structure)

You guys are just living in the real world where $18m is a lot of money. In the NBA its not.

Hell, Delly is on $10m a year for christs sake.

 

[DangerSloane]

Houston's offense is amazing.

Westbrook ruins the open 3 and then runs around like a headless chook.

 

[DangerSloane]

And that defensive wings who don’t stuff stat sheet are duds.

So like any stat in any sport, doesnt truly account for defense.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

But this season, in Charlotte, he's a quality starting PG.

I'd say that Graham is your point guard. And probably the better player.

Why does what he did last season have anything to do with whether he is overpaid now?

Because he was horrific last season with Boston, which counts for something.

Overall I'm just not sure he helps your team enough to be a viable starter, on a good team anyway.

I just dont see how you can say that Rozier is overpaid when everyone around him salary wise is worse.
By definition that says that hes not overpaid.

Is he overpaid by the standards of Charlotte's roster? No, but that's a low bar to clear.

As I said, taking a flyer on him as a capped out rebuilding team is not a terrible move. But no playoff team would pay Rozier $20 million.

Allen Crabbe, Evan Turner, Jeff Teague and Tyler Johnson are paid the same if not more than him.
There are 20 other names I could put here too and half of those are existing contracts too which makes it even worse (not part of the new salary structure)

You guys are just living in the real world where $18m is a lot of money. In the NBA its not.

Hell, Delly is on $10m a year for christs sake.

You can probably leave some of those old contracts aside, as many of them were signed in the dark days of 2016 - and yes, many of them are worse than Rozier's. Them being overpaid does not dictate that Rozier is not overpaid too though.

I'm basing it as a percentage of the salary cap. The cap is at roughly $109 million, meaning that Rozier is taking up more than one sixth of your salary.

Now in the case of the Hornets that hardly matters, because you already have some horrible deals on the books. But on an open market, you'd be pretty hard pressed to find a good team willing to designate that much of their cap sheet to a guy who is a marginal starter at best.

He's on a pretty similar deal to Malcolm Brogdon and Ricky Rubio, to mention just two guards who also signed new deals. I'd far rather have them over Rozier, and that's what I'm basing it on.

Personally I see Rozier as a third guard type, and at the current market rate I wouldn't want to allocate more than $10 million for that type of player.

 

[DangerSloane]

I'd say that Graham is your point guard. And probably the better player.



Because he was horrific last season with Boston, which counts for something.

Overall I'm just not sure he helps your team enough to be a viable starter, on a good team anyway.



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Is he overpaid by the standards of Charlotte's roster? No, but that's a low bar to clear.

As I said, taking a flyer on him as a capped out rebuilding team is not a terrible move. But no playoff team would pay Rozier $20 million.



You can probably leave some of those old contracts aside, as many of them were signed in the dark days of 2016 - and yes, many of them are worse than Rozier's. Them being overpaid does not dictate that Rozier is not overpaid too though.

I'm basing it as a percentage of the salary cap. The cap is at roughly $109 million, meaning that Rozier is taking up more than one sixth of your salary.

Now in the case of the Hornets that hardly matters, because you already have some horrible deals on the books. But on an open market, you'd be pretty hard pressed to find a good team willing to designate that much of their cap sheet to a guy who is a marginal starter at best.

He's on a pretty similar deal to Malcolm Brogdon and Ricky Rubio, to mention just two guards who also signed new deals. I'd far rather have them over Rozier, and that's what I'm basing it on.

Personally I see Rozier as a third guard type, and at the current market rate I wouldn't want to allocate more than $10 million for that type of player.

Sorry but the dark days of 2016 are as bad if not worse now.
The money is even more stupid and the cap has gone up.

$10m gets you Delly. Rozier is a far better player than him. You need to up your salary bands I think.

$10m doesnt get you a ******* drinks boy these days, let alone a starting guard (or as you say a 6th man).

Its funny you guys take into account that Kemba is playing on a good team so his individual stats are down, but then use Rozier's plus minus when hes playing for statistically one of the worst teams in the league.

You cant have your cake and eat it too.

This guy has a crack at Terry after his 4 point game.
Not mentioning that his two before that were 20, 3 and 9 with 25, 7 and 3.
Shooting 42, 40, 85 for the season.

Just seems pretty damn unfair and of all the players to say is overpaid, he is not in the top 30
There are some farkn terrible players between 15-20m per year.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

Sorry but the dark days of 2016 are as bad if not worse now.

Parsons. Biyombo. Deng. Mozgov. Dwight. Evan Turner. Solomon Hill. Delly. Noah.

You find me a list of equivalents from the 2019 off-season! I'll wait.

The money is even more stupid and the cap has gone up.

$10m gets you Delly. Rozier is a far better player than him. You need to up your salary bands I think.

$10m doesnt get you a ******* drinks boy these days.

You just completely ignored what I said.

$19 million is more than one sixth of your salary cap. In a vacuum, you'd want to get a slightly above average NBA starter for that money.

Rozier is a fringe starter at best, in all likelihood a third guard on even a first round playoff team. You don't use nearly 20% of your salary cap on a player who should rank between 5th and 8th on your depth chart - that's the bottom line.

 

[DangerSloane]

Parsons. Biyombo. Deng. Mozgov. Dwight. Evan Turner. Solomon Hill. Delly. Noah.

You find me a list of equivalents from the 2019 off-season! I'll wait.



You just completely ignored what I said.

$19 million is more than one sixth of your salary cap. In a vacuum, you'd want to get a slightly above average NBA starter for that money.

Rozier is a fringe starter at best, in all likelihood a third guard on even a first round playoff team. You don't use nearly 20% of your salary cap on a player who should rank between 5th and 8th on your depth chart - that's the bottom line.

There are still stupid contracts happening every year.

Should rank 5th to 8th.
But he doesn't. He ranks 2nd on our roster.

Our problem is not paying Terry $18m...its paying Batum $25m, Biyombo $17m, Marvin $15m and MKG something like $12-$13m.
Thats $60m on about 30 minutes a game between them.

Everyone is overpaying for everyone at the moment.
I mean Jaylen Brown will be getting almost $30m in two years time!

 

[Son of Skeletor]

Should rank 5th to 8th.
But he doesn't. He ranks 2nd on our roster.

Our problem is not paying Terry $18m...its paying Batum $25m, Biyombo $17m, Marvin $15m and MKG something like $12-$13m.
Thats $60m on about 30 minutes a game between them.

That's fine, and that's why I made a distinction between Rozier in a vacuum and Rozier for Charlotte.

In your situation, it wasn't a horrible move. You're already in cap hell, and will be rebuilding for the full three years on Rozier's deal. It won't kill you.

That doesn't mean he's not overpaid compared to his real market value though.

Everyone is overpaying for everyone at the moment.
I mean Jaylen Brown will be getting almost $30m in two years time!

Let's take two of the better teams in the league - the Bucks and the Clippers.

The Bucks are using George Hill in Rozier's (IMO) ideal role. They're paying him $9 million, and he's a quiet SMOTY candidate. The Clippers meanwhile are paying Pat Baverley and Lou Williams a combined $20 million, or about the same as Rozier's contract alone. Now, which would you rather?

Dinwiddie is making $10.6 million. Fred VanVleet $9 million. These are the contracts that you should be bench-marking against.

 

[nahnah]

This.

Overrates high percentage shooting centers and doesn't fully account for defense, but it's one of the better stats.

that is interesting coming from a Warriors fan where PER basically has Klay Thompson listed as an average role player because he doesn't rebound much

 

[Memphis]

wut?

Lakers wut?

 

[peternorth]

Lakers wut?

Quality response.

Can you explain why and how locker room behaviour is factored into how much a player is paid?

Lebrons reputation off court when it comes to player management and recruiting is not great, but should his pay reflect that?

 

[DangerSloane]

That's fine, and that's why I made a distinction between Rozier in a vacuum and Rozier for Charlotte.

In your situation, it wasn't a horrible move. You're already in cap hell, and will be rebuilding for the full three years on Rozier's deal. It won't kill you.

That doesn't mean he's not overpaid compared to his real market value though.



Let's take two of the better teams in the league - the Bucks and the Clippers.

The Bucks are using George Hill in Rozier's (IMO) ideal role. They're paying him $9 million, and he's a quiet SMOTY candidate. The Clippers meanwhile are paying Pat Baverley and Lou Williams a combined $20 million, or about the same as Rozier's contract alone. Now, which would you rather?

Dinwiddie is making $10.6 million. Fred VanVleet $9 million. These are the contracts that you should be bench-marking against.

George Hill? The guy averaging single figures? Has double figures once this calendar year.
Now I know you're trolling.
George Hill isn't in the top 25 of odds for 6th man betting. Tyus Jones is considered a better chance at $501
So no hes not a sneaky SMOTY candidate. He's not even on the radar.


And what are Dinwiddie and VanVleets next contracts worth?
VanVleet on his last year of his contract and guarantee you he wont be accepting <$10m for his next one.
I'm willing to bet he will be on $15-17ish, on a team where he isnt the starting PG.

Far out Dante Exum is on $10m ffs.

 

[nahnah]

VanVleet and Dinwiddie are better players than Rozier

 

[DangerSloane]

VanVleet and Dinwiddie are better players than Rozier

However they are both non-starters with guys earning max ahead of them.
Although Toronto have been starting VV on occasion.
Also I'd argue Dinwiddie is very one dimensional.

 

[nahnah]

However they are both non-starters with guys earning max ahead of them.

Rozier should be paid 10-12mil, I agree with your price range for the other two

 

[DangerSloane]

Rozier should be paid 10-12mil, I agree with your price range for the other two

I'd say $15m would be pretty close.
Add a couple for the fact that he's starting and a position of need.

But then you look at the other guys on 17m-19m and Terry looks like a bargain.

You've got blokes on the end of the bench getting $10m a year. Delly and Exum for example.
Do you not think Terry is a tier above that?

 

[nahnah]

I'd say $15m would be pretty close.
Add a couple for the fact that he's starting and a position of need.

But then you look at the other guys on 17m-19m and Terry looks like a bargain.

Marcus Smart played on the same team, was a better player and is getting paid $12mil. Not sure why you think it’s so criminal to say Rozier is overpaid just because he starts for a bad team

 

[DangerSloane]

Marcus Smart played on the same team, was a better player and is getting paid $12mil. Not sure why you think it’s so criminal to say Rozier is overpaid just because he starts for a bad team

Jaylen Brown played on the same team, was a slighly better player and is getting $23m next year.

Also not sure Smart is better. Better defender sure.
Shooting 37% / 31% / 77% on a top team compared with 42% / 40% / 85% on a bad team for Rozier.
29 minutes a game for 12.4 pts per game compared with Rozier's 18 points in 33 minutes.

Next you're going to say its easier to get good shots on a bad team lol

You guys are remembering Boston Rozier and clearly havent seen him play this season.

 

[nahnah]

Jaylen Brown played on the same team, was a slighly better player and is getting $23m next year.

And yet you didn’t call me out when I said he was overpaid

 

[DangerSloane]

And yet you didn’t call me out when I said he was overpaid

He was one i looked at but wasnt in the 17-19m range so didnt use his name
I did however name about 7 guys around that range that arent half the player Terry is.

$18m is what $10m was a few years ago. Middle of the road contract.

Question: Find me a non-rookie contracted starter playing 30+ minutes a game at the level Rozier is (yes not superstar but very solid contributor) getting less than $10m a year

I'm willing to bet there are 0.

In fact I'm willing to bet theres no non-rookie contracted player playing 30+ minutes getting less than $10mil at all.

So what you're saying is hes the worst player in the league playing that many minutes.
I fail to see the logic.