20's super long view predictions

[kid_a]

lets here them.....

I'll kick off from the half way line.....

Eventually Super Rugby will split into two different comps:
Asia Pacific comp (Aus, NZ, Japan, Fiji.....maybe even Hong Kong & Singapore)
Africa/South America comp (South Africa, Argentina......maybe a Uruguayan & Namibian team too)

French Top 14, Japanese Top League and English Premiership to widen the gulf between themselves and other comps financially.

England to rise to the level of NZ in terms of year in year out W-L ratio and player quality within the next 2-3 years and just stay there.

next 3 years
rugby c'ship 6 nations
2020: South Africa England
2021: New Zealand England
2022: New Zealand England

 

[Scotland]

Super Rugby will be dead as soon as the TV deal expires. The 4 remaining SR franchises in South Africa will join the Pro14 and turn it into a Pro18 or similar. Remains to be seen whether the Jaguares join them, us or fold. Ditto the Sunwolves who are homeless from 2021. Given most of the Japan test side just play in the Top League the Sunwolves seem redundant anyway. The Jaguares on the other hand are just the Argentine test team minus whoever is playing in Europe, so really should be better than they are.

GRR is still kicking around as a B-grade franchise comp of Asia Pacific region, including the third biggest rugby market in Australia which RA continues to pretend doesn't exist. I don't know if there are any legs in the concept, but it won't survive competing with SR and Euro rugby and Japanese rugby and NRC without coercing players out of those comps with fat pay cheques.

NZ will invariably do what is best for NZ rugby. Hopefully that means maintaining a provincial comp that includes us and others, but other than for any TV money on offer they don't need us. RA will continue to do what they think is best for private school rugby in Sydney and Brisbane and let the other 99.99999% of the world pass them by. 2023 World Cup will roll around and our only chance of making it past the quarters will be to pick players from Europe where all of our best are getting paid $1m a year.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Super Rugby will be dead as soon as the TV deal expires. The 4 remaining SR franchises in South Africa will join the Pro14 and turn it into a Pro18 or similar. Remains to be seen whether the Jaguares join them, us or fold. Ditto the Sunwolves who are homeless from 2021. Given most of the Japan test side just play in the Top League the Sunwolves seem redundant anyway. The Jaguares on the other hand are just the Argentine test team minus whoever is playing in Europe, so really should be better than they are.

GRR is still kicking around as a B-grade franchise comp of Asia Pacific region, including the third biggest rugby market in Australia which RA continues to pretend doesn't exist. I don't know if there are any legs in the concept, but it won't survive competing with SR and Euro rugby and Japanese rugby and NRC without coercing players out of those comps with fat pay cheques.

NZ will invariably do what is best for NZ rugby. Hopefully that means maintaining a provincial comp that includes us and others, but other than for any TV money on offer they don't need us. RA will continue to do what they think is best for private school rugby in Sydney and Brisbane and let the other 99.99999% of the world pass them by. 2023 World Cup will roll around and our only chance of making it past the quarters will be to pick players from Europe where all of our best are getting paid $1m a year.

Unless NZRU want their teams playing each other 3-4 times + final(s) I'm not sure why they'd desire to be rid of the Australian teams. That part of the status quo is pretty great for them. Don't have to share their generally superior players and RA wear the costs/losses of the Australian entrants.

All the South African teams in Europe is an ambitious idea. Reminds me of Celtic and Rangers wanting to move to England. Great for them, considerably less appealing for the teams already there.

The Pro14 does have two already but the European teams would get sick of it if travelling to the bottom of Africa becomes something to be done multiple times a season instead of once (plus finals).

Premiership Rugby (England) would refuse South African teams.

Can't speak French, don't know what they think.

 

[Scotland]

6 RSA, 5 Aus, 5 NZ, 1 Japan, 1 Argentina never worked. It was too many teams across too much of the globe.

I can't see RSA staying with any kind of split model. It's like GRR vs SR. If you could make $1m a year and get picked for the Wallabies playing SR, why would you want to play GRR? It's a lesser comp. The RSA players will go where the money and competitiveness is and one lot of teams will end up weak. SR is already on the nose, no one is going to rock up to watch the Stormers vs Bulls when the entire Springbok squad is split between the Cheetahs, Kings and other Euro teams.

The last time the comp worked it was a 4-3-5 model. There is some chance RApunt the Rebels and SANZAAR (minus an A) go back to that, but it still leaves 2 spare South African teams and RA focusing only on Bris-Syd-Can, the latter which I could easily see.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

6 RSA, 5 Aus, 5 NZ, 1 Japan, 1 Argentina never worked. It was too many teams across too much of the globe.

I can't see RSA staying with any kind of split model. It's like GRR vs SR. If you could make $1m a year and get picked for the Wallabies playing SR, why would you want to play GRR? It's a lesser comp. The RSA players will go where the money and competitiveness is and one lot of teams will end up weak. SR is already on the nose, no one is going to rock up to watch the Stormers vs Bulls when the entire Springbok squad is split between the Cheetahs, Kings and other Euro teams.

The last time the comp worked it was a 4-3-5 model. There is some chance RApunt the Rebels and SANZAAR (minus an A) go back to that, but it still leaves 2 spare South African teams and RA focusing only on Bris-Syd-Can, the latter which I could easily see.

Do the two South African teams in Pro14 pay better than the South African teams in Super Rugby? They only ended up there because they were booted.

 

[Scotland]

Do the two South African teams in Pro14 pay better than the South African teams in Super Rugby? They only ended up there because they were booted.

Currently, no idea. The 2019 WC squad contained 0 Pro 14 players from the Cheetahs/Kings or any other team. It was all SR players with 5 from England, 3 from France and one from Japan. The Cheetahs currently have 2 capped Springboks and none that have played since 2018. The Kings have none. That would suggest that at this point the Pro 14 is where they send their B-grade sides.

The point is that if they split the RSA teams 2/4 or 3/3 or whatever eventually all the better players will end up in one comp or the other. Do the Pro 14 want to keep B-grade South African teams forever? The Cheetahs won 8 games and came 6th out of 7 in their conference and the Kings won 2 and came last in theirs. I'm not seeing a huge benefit to having them around right now.